Redrafting The 2019 MLB Draft: Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson Find New Homes

Image credit: Gunnar Henderson had he been drafted by the Miami Marlins in 2019 (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)

One of the biggest challenges in analyzing the MLB Draft is the amount of time that needs to unfold before we can feel confident in knowing who did well and who did poorly. On draft day, all we really have are rankings and ideas of where players stack up with one another based on performance, tools, projection, data and conversations with scouts.

We don’t truly know who will pan out and who will fail.

One of the first years I covered the draft for Baseball America I asked a scouting director what he thought about his recent draft class. His response?

“Ask me in five years.”

Since then, I’ve always wanted to do comprehensive draft reviews at some later stage to try and better answer that question for each team. So today we’re looking more than four years back in the rearview mirror to check on the 2019 draft class and see who did well and who would prefer a do-over.

At the time, the class was lauded for its elite top six prospects which was led by standout top-of-the-class talents Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. and also included Andrew Vaughn, CJ Abrams, Riley Greene and JJ Bleday.

Beyond that group of players the class was critiqued for having below-average depth and also having some of the least appealing pitching talent in the history of the draft. Here’s what I wrote at the time in our annual draft preview:

“The shallow nature of the draft is most obvious in a lack of college pitchers. ‘Absolutely one of the worst college pitching classes that I’ve seen,’ one scout said.’

“Even mid-rotation arms are tougher to find than usual. Many pitchers at the top of the class either lack prototype first-round stuff (Nick Lodolo, George Kirby) or have significant reliever risk (Alek Manoah, Jackson Rutledge) or injury concerns (Zack Thompson, Carter Stewart) or simply lack track record (Seth Johnson).”

At this point, the class has turned out to be quite a bit better than anticipated.

Below is a complete first-round redraft that factors in both previous and expected future performance. Each player inside the top 32 picks has reports, and following the first round I have also included a few team-specific winners and losers, as well as 21 players who were considered but missed the cut.

1. Orioles — C Adley Rutschman

Actual pick: C Adley Rutschman

Original Drafting Team (Round.Pick): Orioles (1.1)
Draft Rank: 1
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 1 overall prospect

Rutschman was the consensus top talent in the 2019 draft class and scouts at the time considered him the best position player prospect since Bryce Harper in 2010. That made the choice easy for the Orioles, and he has lived up to his amateur reputation in every regard by providing a well-rounded offensive skillset, excellent defensive chops and tremendous leadership to guide an up-and-coming Orioles team into the future.

Rutschman has been the best catcher in the game since he debuted in 2022, with 10.5 fWAR that tops backstops like Sean Murphy (9.2), Cal Raleigh (8.8), Will Smith (8.3) and JT Realmuto (8.0). He has been the 13th-best player in baseball overall using that same metric. He’s shown pristine zone skills since day one with a walk rate in the 13-14% range in both of his first full seasons, and showed promising development by cutting his strikeout rate from an already impressive 18.3% mark to 14.7% in 2023—tied for the 14th-best strikeout rate among qualified big leaguers.

He was expected to be a franchise catcher on draft day in 2019 and that’s exactly what he has become.

2. Royals — SS Bobby Witt Jr.

Actual pick: SS Bobby Witt Jr.

Original Drafting Team: Royals (1.2)
Draft Rank: 2
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 3 overall prospect

Here’s where the controversy could begin. Witt Jr. was the consensus No. 2 prospect on draft day, to the point that Royals scouts watching him during the spring would consistently make jokes about scouts from other teams showing up: “Why waste your time? You aren’t picking him.”

There’s a solid case to be made that Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson or Michael Harris would be the pick in hindsight. All three of those other hitters have been more productive on a per-game basis than Witt. But we’re still projecting what will happen in the future and I can’t help but think Witt has the highest pure upside of the group. I come back to this quote from a scout in 2019 before the draft:

“If there’s a hill you want to die on, saying that you like Bobby Witt’s tools is a good one to defend.”

If I had to pick one non-Ronald Acuña Jr. player in baseball to have a 40-40 season, it would be Witt. He also has the best defensive value of the group, so I’m willing to buy into the improvements he made in 2023 and get excited for the next few seasons. On Baseball Savant’s year-to-year changes leaderboard, Witt had the fourth-largest jump in expected wOBA from .313 in 2022 to .369 in 2023. He improved across the board offensively, with fewer strikeouts, a bit more walks, a better hard-hit rate, and significantly better production against fastballs and off-speed pitches.

He seemed to make an approach adjustment around June, and from that point forward he chased out of the zone less frequently and hit .303/.346/.530 with a 132 wRC+. Witt likes to swing, and he does so more frequently than both Carroll or Henderson, but if he’s able to maintain this approach and make better swing decisions, there’s no reason he can’t be just as impactful a hitter—if not moreso. He could further improve his approach against sliders and get a bit more efficient on the basepaths, but it’s hard not to get excited about 40-40 potential from a Gold Glove caliber (he should have been at least a finalist this year) shortstop entering his age-24 season.

If I haven’t gushed enough about Witt and his future potential, he was also one of just three players to homer against a 102-mph fastball in 2023.

3. White Sox — OF Corbin Carroll

Actual pick: 1B Andrew Vaughn

Original Drafting Team: D-backs (1.16)
Draft Rank: 12
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 2 overall prospect

Carroll has been everything he was hyped up to be and more in his first 187 big league games. He has an extremely advanced offensive approach that could become even more valuable if and when an ABS system gets introduced (he ranked 13th on Baseball Savant’s swing & take leaderboard). Carroll helped push the D-backs to a surprise World Series appearance in his first full season and also won NL Rookie of the Year, made his first all-star team and posted a 134 OPS+.

Carroll’s 25 home runs were already better than what was expected of him as a prep – though some tried to warn us about that – and he added 54 steals on excellent efficiency and is immediately one of the top baserunners in the game. While he isn’t the impact defender that others in this top five are, he can still provide solid glove work in center field. Perhaps the only true concern with Carroll is his shoulder injury history, but if you wanted to take him one spot higher I wouldn’t argue with you.

4. Marlins — SS Gunnar Henderson

Actual pick: OF JJ Bleday

Original Drafting Team: Orioles (2.42)
Draft Rank: 30
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 1 overall prospect

There’s a legitimate case to be made that the Orioles wound up with the two best players in this draft class. Getting not one but two franchise hitters in one draft is a monumental feat. After being just a league-average hitter over the first two months of the season (98 wRC+), Henderson cut his strikeout rate the rest of the way from 30% to 23%, posted a 133 wRC+ and led all rookies with 28 home runs while winning AL Rookie of the Year and a silver slugger award.

Of this top five group of players, Henderson did have the highest strikeout rate by a decent margin, but his walk rate was also better than each of the other three high school products and his .234 isolated slugging was the best of the bunch. He should be a good defender at shortstop if he stays there, and can be an elite Gold Glove type defender at the hot corner depending on how Baltimore wants to align its infield defense.

5. Tigers — RHP George Kirby

Actual pick: OF Riley Greene

Original Drafting Team: Mariners (1.20)
Draft Rank: 20
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 12 overall prospect

Scouts wondered if the 2019 draft class would produce a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter among first-round prospects, let alone a Cy Young contender. Between Kirby and Alek Manoah (who we’ll get to later) the class has already massively exceeded the historically low pitching expectations that were placed on it in 2019. Kirby is the main cause.

His excellent control and command skills were obvious when he pitched for Elon in college, and the questions about his pure stuff started to alleviate quickly after he got into Seattle’s pitching program. After sitting in the low 90s and showing a pair of breaking balls that lacked consistency, Kirby now averages 96 mph on two fastballs that he locates at will and pairs with a deep mix of secondaries including a mid-80s slider that had the 12th-best pitch value in the game according to Sports Info Solutions.

6. Padres — OF Michael Harris

Actual pick: SS CJ Abrams

Original Drafting Team: Braves (3.98)
Draft Rank: 248
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 46 overall prospect

It only takes six players to get to the point where a prospect not ranked inside the first-round range back in 2019 makes an appearance. At the time, most of the industry seemed to prefer Harris as a lefthanded pitcher on the mound. Not the Braves. They drafted him as a hitter and never looked back. Harris spent just three seasons in the minors before making his major league debut in 2022 as a 21-year-old, when he put together one of the better rookie seasons we’ve seen on a per-plate appearance basis.

Like Henderson and Carroll, you could probably argue for Harris to be in a higher spot considering his advanced bat-to-ball skills, speed and phenomenal defensive work in center field. What keeps him at the back of this elite tier for me is less confidence in his plate skills and approach compared to the others. Harris is the most aggressive swinger of the bunch (52.7% swing rate compared to Witt at 50.4%) and his out-of-zone swing rate (41.6%) is even more aggressive relative to the league average (31.9%). He has enough bat-to-ball skill, speed and power for that to be a viable option for him, and he’s been a well above-average hitter in two seasons. He should have a chance for a Gold Glove or two as well.

7. Reds — SS Bryson Stott

Actual pick: LHP Nick Lodolo

Original Drafting Team: Phillies (1.14)
Draft Rank: 10
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 67 overall prospect

The top-ranked shortstop in the college class at the time, Stott at times faced critiques about both his offense and his defense. Scouts wondered if he would stick at the position. He also struggled more with the bat than anticipated during his summer with Team USA before a huge draft spring with Nevada-Las Vegas where he managed a 1.085 OPS and 10 home runs.

Stott has become a productive, everyday middle infielder and at this stage his 5.4 bWAR is good for sixth-best in the 2019 draft class, ahead of more touted prep shortstops like Witt and CJ Abrams for now. He settled in as a second baseman and simplified his swing in 2023 to go from an 84 wRC+ mark in 2022 to a league-average 101 wRC+ in 2023. He homered 15 times, added 31 stolen bases and potentially has a bit more power upside in the tank if he is able to pull the ball in the air more frequently.

8. Rangers — OF Riley Greene

Actual pick: 3B Josh Jung

Original Drafting Team: Tigers (1.5)
Draft Rank: 5
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 4 overall prospect

In a standout draft class, Greene was frequently tabbed as the best pure hitter among preps, with some scouts putting 70-grade hitting upside on the lefty swinger at the time. Greene flashed a bit more of that offensive upside in 2023 after a solid but unspectacular first look in the majors in 2022. He managed a 119 wRC+ with above-average metrics in exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit rate and sweet-spot percentage, though a Tommy John surgery cut his sophomore campaign short after just 99 games.

A full season of health for Greene in 2024 will be crucial for the Tigers taking another step forward as an organization, and he has the best 2024 Steamer projections outside of the top six players on this list.

9. Braves — 3B Josh Jung

Actual pick: C Shea Langeliers

Original Drafting Team: Rangers (1.8)
Draft Rank: 17
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 26 overall prospect

Jung had a tremendous offensive track record coming out of the draft, so much so that he went inside the first 10 picks despite a No. 17 overall rank in the draft. Jung was frequently critiqued for his inability or unwillingness to turn on the ball, though that has unsurprisingly not been a real issue for him in years. He was 22nd among hitters with 100+ plate appearances in 2022 with a 49.2% pull rate, and while that number dropped significantly in 2023, to a below-average 36.8% rate, he still drives the ball with authority to all fields and his 41.9% sweet-spot rate was in the 98th percentile. If he can improve a 29.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate, he has even more offensive upside, but even lacking that he provides solid righthanded power and solid defense at the hot corner.

10. Giants — SS Anthony Volpe

Actual pick: OF Hunter Bishop

Original Drafting Team: Yankees (1.30)
Draft Rank: 52
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 10 overall prospect

Volpe amplified his impressive baseball skills with tool jumps almost immediately after getting into pro ball, which raised his offensive upside and overall impact potential. At the time of the 2019 draft, it was an open secret that the Yankees coveted the New Jersey shortstop, though we wrote that he didn’t “overwhelm with tools or physicality” but had “some of the most consistent and reliable hands in the class.”

Volpe’s defensive chops were on full display during his 2023 debut when he won the American League Gold Glove award, though the jury is still out on what he’s going to be as a hitter despite solid counting stats with 21 home runs and 24 stolen bases.

11. Blue Jays — SS CJ Abrams

Actual pick: RHP Alek Manoah

Original Drafting Team: Padres (1.6)
Draft Rank: 4
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 9 overall prospect

Abrams joined Witt as an elite shortstop prospect in the class and was among the elite tier of six players that headlined the 2019 class. He fell to the final spot in that range to the Padres at No. 6 overall and, like many San Diego prospects, found himself traded out of the organization soon thereafter. Abrams’ calling cards were his elite athleticism, speed and innate bat-to-ball skills which helped him dominate in his pro debut in rookie ball – .401/.442/.662 with 12 doubles, eight triples, three homers and 14 stolen bases – to such a degree that many people, including us here at BA, briefly flipped him over Witt in prospect rankings.

Abrams has not quite lived up to his offensive potential just yet, though he showed solid improvements year-over-year, including a jump in walk rate from a microscopic 1.7% to just a below-average 5.2% mark in 2023. He hit the ball a tick harder on average, elevated more frequently and went from a .077 isolated slugging number to a .167 isolated slugging, homered 18 times and stole 47 bags at a strong 92.2% success rate. Likewise, Abrams has also been praised for his improvements as a defender, though I personally don’t see the sort of impact glove you have with players like Witt and Volpe.

12. Mets — LHP Nick Lodolo

Actual pick: 3B Brett Baty

Original Drafting Team: Reds (1.7)
Draft Rank: 8
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 36 overall prospect

Lodolo was the top-ranked pitcher in the 2019 class and was one of the only starters who had an extended track record of success in a starting role at the time. He was tagged as a high-likelihood backend starter type at the time and has largely lived up to that billing after 26 big league starts and 137.2 total innings.

Lodolo pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 19 starts in his debut season in 2022, and finished sixth in the rookie of the year vote, but was bit by the long ball too much in his abbreviated 2023 season before he hit the injured list with a stress reaction in his left tibia. While Lodolo doesn’t look like a front-end arm, he should be a reliable strike thrower and innings eater who benefits by being lefthanded if he can come back healthy and get back toward more of a league-average home run rate.

13. Twins — 2B Edouard Julien

Actual pick: SS Keoni Cavaco

Original Drafting Team: Twins (18.539)
Draft Rank: 203
Best BA Rank: 2023 Twins No. 4 prospect

Julien was a polarizing prospect as an amateur. Scouts wondered about his consistently high strikeout rates but were also impressed with his plus raw power and consistently impressive walk rates. That’s largely the player he still is today, and after quite literally walking his way to the big leagues (a career 20% minor league walk rate) he managed a 136 wRC+ that was driven largely thanks to his excellent batting eye and ability to draw a walk.

His 15.7% walk rate was the fifth-best in baseball among hitters with 400 or more plate appearances, behind only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber and Andrew McCutchen. Julien’s swing rate is one of the lowest in the game, his chase rate is one of the best and when he does swing he produces solid exit velocities. His 31.4% HR/FB rate was the best in baseball, so if he can hit a few more balls in the air and few less on the ground in 2024 it would not be surprising at all to see him top the 16-homer mark he managed in 109 games in 2023.

Signing him in the 18th round is a testament to the Twins’ work on his signability and a massive win considering he looks like a solid everyday player despite his defensive shortcomings.

14. Phillies — 2B Spencer Steer

Actual pick: SS Bryson Stott

Original Drafting Team: Twins (3.90)
Draft Rank: 192
Best BA Rank: 2023 Reds No. 7 prospect

Steer was another Twins victory in the 2019 draft, which might help alleviate the swing-and-miss on first-rounder Keoni Cavaco. Steer’s big league productivity, though, has come with the Reds after he was traded along with Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Steven Hajjar for righthander Tyler Mahle.

Steer is a great example of why you shouldn’t discount a player who consistently produces simply because of a lack of tools. He’s long been a well-rounded, but unexceptional prospect. But doing everything on the field well often leads to a solid regular role, and Steer is coming off a .271/.356/.464 season that featured 23 home runs, 15 stolen bases and a sixth-place finish in the NL rookie of the year voting while playing five different positions.

15. Angels — 1B Vinnie Pasquantino

Actual pick: SS Will Wilson

Original Drafting Team: Royals (11.319)
Draft Rank: NR
Best BA Rank: 2022 Royals No. 10 prospect

Pasquantino is the first unranked player to appear on this redraft. He had a solid three-year career at Old Dominion, where he hit .309/.388/.507 with 24 home runs including a 16-homer campaign during his draft year, but positional questions and a lack of high-caliber wood bat track record meant he went under the radar at BA. The Royals signed him for $125,000 in the 11th round then watched him climb the minors with a savvy and professional approach at the plate.

Pasquantino has yet to put together a full season in the majors after missing half the 2023 season because of a torn right labrum, but in parts of two seasons he has been a well above-average hitter with tons of contact, a .272/.355/.444 line and 121 wRC+. He might need to add a bit more game power to overcome the high offensive bar of a first baseman, but his big league career is already a draft victory considering where he was picked and what he signed for.

16. Diamondbacks — RHP Alek Manoah

Actual pick: OF Corbin Carroll

Original Drafting Team: Blue Jays (1.11)
Draft Rank: 13
Best BA Rank: 2020 Blue Jays No. 5 prospect

Manoah was far and away the most difficult player to place in this exercise. In terms of banked big league production, Manoah ranks third on this list behind only Rutschman and Harris with 7.8 bWAR. His 2022 season alone was enough to re-evaluate the pitching talent of the 2019 class, as he posted a 2.24 ERA in 31 starts and 196.2 innings, was named an all-star, finished third in Cy Young voting and earned down-ballot MVP votes. Things completely fell apart for Manoah in 2023, to the point where he made an appearance in the Florida Complex League and there’s no telling what he’s going to look like in 2024. His placement could vary significantly depending on what you think he still has in the tank, but his 2021 and 2022 seasons alone were good enough to warrant a first-round pick in a redraft in my humble opinion.

17. Nationals — RHP Graham Ashcraft

Actual pick: RHP Jackson Rutledge

Original Drafting Team: Reds (6.174)
Draft Rank: 350
Best BA Rank: 2022 Reds No. 9 prospect

Ashcraft has long had big arm strength – he touched 99 mph in high school – but during his draft year in 2019 it looked like his prospect status had faded thanks to injuries and consistently high walk rates with Mississippi State and Alabama-Birmingham. The Reds bought into his upside despite his performance and signed him for $247,500 in the sixth round and he turned in a pair of respectable seasons as a starter in 2022 and 2023. It’ll be hard to become a league-average starter with just a 16-17% strikeout rate, but Ashcraft had a strong second half in 2023 thanks in part to a shockingly high 90% left on base rate.

18. Pirates — RHP Hunter Brown

Actual pick: RHP Quinn Priester

Original Drafting Team: Astros (5.166)
Draft Rank: 156
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 27 overall prospect

Brown took a step forward with his command during his draft year with Wayne State, which led to a fifth-round selection by the Astros and an over-slot $325,000 bonus. While Brown has yet to fully realize the potential that made him the No. 27 overall prospect entering the 2023 season, he has shown flashes of dominance and solid control in a starter role with the Astros. He tinkered with his delivery during the 2023 season and was a bit homer-prone (21% HR/FB) and posted a 5.09 ERA in 155.2 innings, with a 26.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. I’ll be curious if he ups the usage of his upper-80s split-change in 2024, as that pitch was one of his most effective despite a less than 5% usage rate.

19. Cardinals — RHP Ryan Pepiot

Actual pick: LHP Zack Thompson

Original Drafting Team: Dodgers (3.102)
Draft Rank: 99
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 55 overall prospect

Pepiot showed big-time arm strength in college and set single-season and career strikeout records with Butler over a three-year career. The Dodgers took him despite his starter/reliever questions and signed him for $547,500 in the third round. He made his big league debut in 2022 and has spent parts of two seasons pitching in the majors, both as a starter and a reliever. In total, he’s posted a 2.76 ERA over 78.1 innings with a 25.1% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. He has the stuff to pitch in a leverage reliever role and is stretched out enough with just enough strikes to pitch out of the rotation if need be with a power heater.

20. Mariners — 3B Brett Baty

Actual pick: RHP George Kirby

Original Drafting Team: Mets (1.12)
Draft Rank: 15
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 32 overall prospect

Baty was heavily critiqued for his age at the time of the draft, but four years later he is a 23-year-old big leaguer who debuted during his age-22 season and those questions have long since disappeared. At the time of the draft he combined some of the best pure hitting chops among high schoolers with double-plus raw power, though he is still trying to figure out big league pitching after 119 games and a .210/.272/.325 slash line and 27.1% strikeout rate. He needs to put the ball in the air with more frequency to tap into his impressive raw power.

21. Braves — 1B Andrew Vaughn

Actual pick: SS Braden Shewmake

Original Drafting Team: White Sox (1.3)
Draft Rank: 3
Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 21 overall prospect

Vaughn was a tremendous college hitter and ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the class after he won the 2018 Golden Spikes Award as a sophomore and combined for 50 home runs in three seasons with California. While Vaughn has been a big league regular for three seasons already, he’s only been about a league-average hitter, which doesn’t help much when he’s limited to first base and DH. He was expected to be a plus hitter with well above-average in-game power, and so far his season-high is the 21-homer mark he managed in 2023. He has steadily improved that power production year-over-year since debuting in 2021, but he will need to add significantly more impact before he can claim to have lived up to his 2019 offensive expectations and third overall selection.

22. Rays — SS Joey Ortiz

Actual pick: SS Greg Jones

Original Drafting Team: Orioles (4.108)
Draft Rank: 258
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 63 overall prospect

Ortiz was a glove-only prospect in the draft, but one who was so advanced as a defender at shortstop that scouts expected him to have a long professional career even with limited offensive expectations. The Orioles signed him for $450,000 in the fourth round and managed to coax much more offensive ability out of him in the last four years, to the point that he now has a chance for an average hit tool and fringe-average power. While that might not sound sexy, it’s a great profile for a double-plus defender at one of the game’s premium positions.

23. Rockies — 2B Vaughn Grissom

Actual pick: 1B Michael Toglia

Original Drafting Team: Braves (11.337)
Draft Rank: 409
Best BA Rank: 2022 Braves No. 12 prospect

Grissom was a bit of an afterthought on his own high school team thanks to playing alongside consensus top-of-the-draft hitter Riley Greene at Hagerty High. The Braves were excited about his upside on both sides of the ball, however, and signed him for $347,500 in the 11th round. While Grissom has graduated from prospect status after a loud debut season in 2022 when he managed a 119 OPS+, he doesn’t have an obvious path to regular playing time currently in Atlanta – particularly after the team acquired left fielder Jarred Kelenic this offseason. Grissom has regular upside with a bat-first profile, but it wouldn’t be shocking for the Braves to flip him in a deal to fill holes on the roster elsewhere. He had a strong 2023 season with Triple-A Gwinnett where he hit .330/.419/.501 while playing shortstop and second base.

24. Guardians — 2B Michael Busch

Actual pick: RHP Daniel Espino

Original Drafting Team: Dodgers (1.31)
Draft Rank: 24
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 54 overall prospect

Like Grissom, Busch has solid everyday upside but has largely been blocked on the big league roster in Los Angeles. The key difference between the two, however, is the fact that Busch will enter his age-26 season in 2024 while Grissom will still be 23. That’s significant in prospect terms. His current scouting report largely reflects his draft report. Busch has a chance to hit in the middle of a lineup if he can find a team to play for regularly and a position where he won’t be too much of a liability.

25. Dodgers — OF Matt Wallner

Actual pick: 3B Kody Hoese

Original Drafting Team: Twins (1s.39)
Draft Rank: 49
Best BA Rank: 2023 Twins No. 6 prospect

Wallner was a tough prospect to place back in 2019 thanks to his two-way collegiate ability, injury history and power production. After getting a cup of coffee in 2022, Wallner had a more extended big-league look in 2023 where he showed the big power and big whiff tendencies that made him the Twins No. 6 prospect entering the season. Wallner’s production against righties (.970 OPS) was significantly better what he managed against lefties (.481). Because of that he might be best served in a platoon role, but he’s on the strong side of the platoon and he also has a real weapon with his double-plus throwing arm in right field—only Nolan Jones showed better arm strength than Wallner among all position players in 2023.

26. D-backs — RHP Daniel Espino

Actual pick: LHP Blake Walston

Original Drafting Team: Indians (1.24)
Draft Rank: 25
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 40 overall prospect

Espino’s injury status makes him another difficult player to place here. The opening line of his 2019 draft report holds up nicely: “No pitcher –high school or college – has as much upside as Georgia righthander Daniel Espino in the 2019 draft.” When healthy, Espino has flashed an extremely lethal fastball/slider combination that is among the best in all of the minor leagues, but he has pitched in just 18.1 innings in the last two years and didn’t throw at all in 2023 after undergoing shoulder surgery. If he’s healthy he belongs much higher than this. Ultimately, it might be safer to go with names behind him.

27. Cubs — RHP Louie Varland

Actual pick: RHP Ryan Jensen

Original Drafting Team: Twins (15.449)
Draft Rank: NR
Best BA Rank: 2023 No. 9 Twins prospect

Varland didn’t rank in the BA 500 at the time, but signed for $115,000 and soon became the first Division II Concordia (Minn.) player to make the majors. He’s spent time as a starter and reliever, but his strikeout rate jumped in 2023 in part because of a strong finish to the season out of the pen. Varland had a 22.4% strikeout rate in 10 starts between April and June, but that jumped to 40.1% after he fanned 17 and walked just one in 12 innings over seven bullpen appearances in September. Another good get for the Twins on the third day of the draft.

28. Brewers — RHP Matt Brash

Actual pick: LHP Ethan Small

Original Drafting Team: Padres (4.113)
Draft Rank: 288
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 45 overall prospect

Brash was named the MAAC pitcher of the year during his draft year when he posted a 2.43 ERA and struck out 34% of batters with Niagara in 85.1 innings. He set records for both the conference and Niagara for single season strikeouts that season. The Padres popped him in the fourth round and later traded him to the Mariners for reliever Taylor Williams. Shortly after that, Brash began making tons of noise as a prospect thanks to a fastball up to 97 and a plus-plus slider that earned a few 80 grades.

The control was always a question mark with Brash, but he showed impressive improvement in that area from 2022 to 2023. After walking 14.9% of batters in his 2022 season, he cut that walk rate to 9.4% in 2023 which was essentially league-average for a reliever. He led the league with 78 appearances out of the pen, struck out 34.7% of batters and posted a 2.26 FIP that was good for third-best in baseball among qualified relievers.

29. A’s — OF Kerry Carpenter

Actual pick: SS Logan Davidson

Original Drafting Team: Tigers (19.562)
Draft Rank: NR
Best BA Rank: 2023 Tigers No. 8 prospect

Carpenter was drafted later than any other player in this exercise and represents a huge draft victory for the Tigers, who needed to spend only a 19th round pick and $125,000 to sign him. Since then, Carpenter has gradually progressed from draft afterthought, to solid org player, to legitimate prospect to above-average offensive big leaguer. Carpenter has hit .273/.334/.474 with 26 home runs and a 121 wRC+ between the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He doesn’t walk much and strikes out a bit too often. He’s also a corner profile who isn’t going to add much defensive value. But he is a legitimate lineup piece with power and again… he was a 19th-round draft pick.

30. Yankees — LHP Brandon Williamson

Actual pick: SS Anthony Volpe

Original Drafting Team: Mariners (2.59)
Draft Rank: 86
Best BA Rank: 2022 No. 83 overall prospect

Williamson offered a large frame, athleticism and solid lefthanded pitching track record at Texas Christian at the time of the draft. While there was no carrying pitch or loud tool, there was a lot to like about him. The Mariners signed him for $925,000 in the second round and then later traded him to the Reds in a trade for Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez. While Williamson still doesn’t have a clear outpitch, he did turn in a solid 2023 season with a 4.46 ERA over 23 starts and 117 innings while calling a hitter-friendly park home.

31. Dodgers — RHP Quinn Priester

Actual pick: 2B Michael Busch

Original Drafting Team: Pirates (1.18)
Draft Rank: 23
Best BA Rank: 2021 No. 58 overall prospect

Priester ranked as the fourth-best high school pitcher in the 2019 class — behind righthanders Matt Allan, Brennan Malone and Jack Leiter –and has had a rollercoaster of a pro career since signing for $3.4 million with the Pirates as the No. 18 overall pick. Priester’s big league debut in 2023 was disappointing, as he posted a 7.74 ERA in eight starts and 50 innings, with just a 15.4% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate. There’s still backend starting upside if Priester can regain more consistency of his velocity and with his breaking ball, but there’s definitely risk here as well.

32. Astros — LHP Andrew Nardi

Actual pick: C Korey Lee

Original Drafting Team: Marlins (16.471)
Draft Rank: NR
Best BA Rank: No. 482 prospect in 2018 draft class

In terms of prospect pedigree, Nardi has the least of this group. He didn’t rank on the BA 500 in 2019, and he also never ranked on a Marlins top 30. His only time spent on a BA ranking was after a junior college season in 2018 when he slotted in at No. 482 after striking out 91 batters in 80 innings with Moorpark (Calif.) JC. At the time, scouts saw an athletic and projectable lefthander with some deception but whose stuff varied wildly and whose control was suspect.

The Marlins drafted Nardi and immediately put him in a bullpen role, where he thrived. After the lost 2020 season, Nardi returned to the bump with vastly better control than he showed previously, and after a tough big-league debut in 2022 where he allowed 16 earned runs in 14.2 innings, he was quietly one of the better lefthanded relievers in baseball in 2023. In 57.1 innings Nardi posted a 2.67 ERA with a 30.8% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate, and while his 3.60 FIP suggests he outpitched his peripherals, his 94-95 mph fastball at the top of the zone pairs nicely with his sweeping, low-80s slider.

Other Players Considered (in alphabetical order):