Rangers Must Weigh Pivotal Wyatt Langford Roster Decision Before Opening Day
Image credit: Wyatt Langford (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Wyatt Langford hit in the Southeastern Conference. He hit in his pro debut last summer after Texas drafted him fourth overall.
The 22-year-old left fielder has continued raking this spring in Cactus League games, making his case to break camp on the Rangers’ Opening Day roster.
And yet, Langford has fewer than 50 games of pro experience—including about two weeks at Double-A and one at Triple-A—and plays for the reigning World Series champions who have a set outfield.
For these reasons, many view Langford’s odds of making the Rangers’ Opening Day roster as roughly 50/50.
In reality, the Prospect Promotion Incentive program pushes those odds closer to 80/20—and not necessarily for the obvious reason.
The PPI program incentivizes clubs to break camp with their 26 best players, rather than farm out MLB-ready prospects for a few weeks to manipulate their service time and gain an extra year of club control.
PPI eligible players who win Rookie of the Year or place top three in MVP or Cy Young Award voting early in their careers generate a draft pick after the first round for their clubs.
But what is becoming increasingly clear is the disincentive associated with PPI.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the Rangers assign Langford to Triple-A Round Rock on Opening Day. Further, let’s say they keep him there for two weeks—or long enough to ensure that he cannot accrue 172 MLB service days in 2024. That would push his free agency back a year to after the 2030 season.
In this scenario, the Rangers would target a Langford callup date of April 12 or later. Let’s further assume that Langford hits the ground running in MLB when called up and ultimately wins American League Rookie of the Year.
Finishing first or second in ROY voting retroactively triggers a full year of MLB service for players. So in this case that would nullify the very reason for the Rangers to farm him out in the first place.
This scenario is not at all far-fetched. It has played out three times in the past two seasons. Granted, the players were not all as obviously MLB ready as Langford appears to be.
Last year, the Guardians assigned righthander Tanner Bibee to Triple-A Columbus out of minor league spring training. He had finished 2022 with 13 starts at Double-A in what was his pro debut season. So it wasn’t unreasonable for the Guardians to view Bibee as requiring more minor league time.
Nevertheless, Bibee came out firing in the International League and earned a callup to Cleveland to cover for injuries after just three Triple-A starts. He pitched well and ultimately placed second in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Three key outcomes from Bibee’s case are worth keeping in mind as the Rangers decide where to assign Langford on Opening Day:
(1) Bibee retroactively earned a full year of MLB service for finishing second in ROY voting, even though he fell short of 172 “organic” service days by about 14. He now has a chance to qualify for free agency following the 2028 season rather than 2029.
(2) The Guardians did not receive a full year of MLB production from Bibee and now face the prospect of losing his services a year earlier than they expected, assuming he spends no more than 20 days on an optional assignment in a future season.
(3) The Guardians are not eligible to receive a PPI pick for Bibee’s outstanding rookie season. He met the Top 100 Prospects qualifying standard but did not satisfy the 172 service days as a rookie requirement. Only “organic” service days count for PPI.
Now, the odds of Bibee placing top three for the AL Cy Young Award in 2024 or 2025 are slim—as they are for any pre-arbitration pitcher—so the loss of PPI eligibility does not sting the Guardians as much as the loss of MLB production and earlier potential free agency.
One season before Bibee, two players fit the same basic template: Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Braves center fielder Michael Harris II.
Rutschman finished the 2021 season with two months at Triple-A and entered 2022 as the No. 1 prospect in baseball. It’s reasonable to argue that he was MLB ready on 2022 Opening Day, though a triceps injury clouded his immediate readiness.
The Orioles assigned Rutschman to Triple-A rather than add him to the 40-man roster and place him on the MLB injured list. He debuted for Norfolk on April 26 and earned a callup on May 21.
Rutschman finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022 and was thus credited with a full year of service. He did not gain PPI eligibility, however, which will sting the Orioles if he finishes top three in the AL MVP voting this year in what would have been his final year of eligibility.
Baltimore took full advantage of the PPI program in 2023. It added a PPI pick from Gunnar Henderson‘s Rookie of the Year season and can gain another PPI pick this season if Jackson Holliday makes the Opening Day roster and follows Henderson as ROY.
The Braves’ case with Harris was less clear. He played well in 2022 Grapefruit League games but had no upper-level minor league experience at the time. He quickly proved himself at Double-A Mississippi and received a May 28 callup.
Harris’ NL Rookie of the Year win in 2022 would have instantly yielded a PPI pick for the Braves in the 2023 draft had he met the 172 service days requirement as a rookie.
In Harris’ case, it’s hard to blame Atlanta for not turning over an Opening Day roster spot to a player who had topped out at High-A. But it does illustrate the stakes for elite prospects.
The Rangers are no doubt considering these scenarios, especially the Rutschman one, as they decide where to assign Langford on Opening Day.
