Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (May 6)

Peoria Joe (Peoria, IL): After watching Harrison Bader lead the Chief last season, and now ripping up the Texas league, are you (BA) ready to stop under-rating him? He has starred at every level since High School. But has never been placed among the elites. PS: He plays a great CF!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Peoria Joe, we’ve never underrated him. We’ve written up a few times already on BA Prospect Report and specifically mentioned how good his defense is.

Ken (Lakewood CA): Fully aware that we're only 1 month into the season. But do you regard Healy as the top 1B prospect for Oakland at this point? Thinking Chapman for 3B. Healy, in AA, over Nunez in AAA? Just curious as to how you see it.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not to me, just because positional value has great, well, value. I think Barreto and Manaea remain ahead of him.

Matt (Va): When do you see Moncada and Benintendi getting promoted?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Probably after league all-star games.

Alex (CT): If the Mets were to decide to trade Harvey what would a talent rich like the Red Sox or the Astros realistically offer in return?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: These are fun exercises. Harvey’s injury history and agent baggage offset to an extent his remaining years of control, as well as his pedestrian start and velocity this season. So, they’re not getting Moncada, Benintendi, Anderson Espinoza. Let’s say the Mets insist on a top 10 guy, which they would. I would think Chavis, Williams Jerez and Josh Ockimey, a power prospect, could be fair. Maybe the Mets ask for Roniel Raudes and the Red Sox say no.

Brian (Greensboro, NC): All the attention has been on Swanson and Albies in the Braves minor leagues. What pitcher(s) in minors have your attention so far this spring?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’ve been lucky enough to see some good ones so far. Albert Abreu is interesting, Cody Reed, who I saw last night in Geneva, Ill., Logan Allen, who opposed Reed. Other guys I haven’t seen but also interesting are Adbert Alzolay and Marcos Diplan, among many, many others.

J.B. (Seattle): Has Julio Urias surpassed Giolitto as the the top pitching prospect in the minors?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Well, he was our No. 4 to start the season ahead of Giolito so …

Scott (The Bay Area): With the back end of the SF Giants' rotation struggling, I checked to see if anybody was hot on the farm. Joan Gregorio's numbers jumped out at me. Any thoughts on that guy?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, I wrote up Gregorio the other day when I looked at best SO/BB numbers so far. Clearly he has shown tremendous control early this season. Fastball up to 95 out of the bullpen, 92-94 as a starter. Problem is, the release point isn’t consistent, which causes command to waver. Also, I’d be remiss not to mention Phil Bickford’s tremendous start.

Phillip (Glasgow KY): In 2 seasons, barring trades, what does Atlanta's starting rotation look like?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It could look like Teheran, Newcomb, Wisler, Blair, Toussaint or Allard, but that’s probably rushing Toussaint and maybe even Allard.

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Sorry folks, quick break to post a podcast and now back. Go listen to the podcast while we chat! https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/baseball-america-podcast-7/

Ian (Fargo): With Matt Cain and Jake Peavy pitching so poorly, what are the odds Clayton Backburn gets a chance before the end of May?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’d say at this point they’re low. The Giants and scouts had been fairly lukewarm on Blackburn before last season’s breakthrough. He doesn’t have a true plus pitch.

Ted (NYC): hi Vince, thanks for the chat! Amir Garrett hasn't had a bad start this year, and I'm not sure he had one last year. Do you think we'll see him in Cincinnati sometime this year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I don’t think so. No reason to rush the former basketball player. He’s pitched 29 innings above A-ball and only gave up basketball for good in 2014.

Kenny Carvalho (Ladera Ranch, CA): Which Cody Reed (Reds/DBacks) has the highest upside? If Reed's (DBacks) breaking stuff improves, do you see him as a legit top of the rotation starter?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’m so biased I might have to recuse myself. I saw the D-backs’ Reed last night and he was good. He’s not going to blow you away when you see him, and then all of a sudden, you’re in the seventh inning and he has nine Ks and has thrown 80 percent strikes. Ben Badler wrote a great story about the Reds’ Cody Reed and his nasty slider. Both are good.

Fisher (Dodge City, KS): Vince, with Snell in the bigs now, what AL minor league frontline arm has you excited?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Frontline arm? Has to be Jameson Taillon. Got to see him in Indianapolis a few weeks back against Toledo and he looked strong. No arm issues, was airing the fastball out to 95 mph, with good extension. Real positive guy, too. Has a lot of desire to prove he was a good pick from that 2010 class (Bryce Harper, Machado, Matt Harvey, Chris Sale)

Satchel (Las Vegas): Rate the following middle infielders on offensive potential in the bigs: Bregman, Mateo, Moncada. Is there anyone better on the AL side?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Moncada, then a big step down to Bregman and a small step down from there to Mateo. Mateo’s hit well this season, but the bats on the other two, especially Moncada, are far above Mateo, whose game is about speed. Granted, Mateo has shown more power this season, but I still take a college performer and the specimen Moncada.

Kenny Graves (Newburgh, NY): Is Peter O'Brien getting the call soon or will he be trade bait for a team that needs a outfielder?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Man, that bat is so enticing I think he’s a candidate for a deal. I know the argument that Greg Luzinski played left field (man, I’m old) and so anyone can, but Luzinski was surprisingly athletic for a big dude. O’Brien doesn’t move that well laterally. He’s a perfect DH/1B type in the AL.

Doug (TOD): Hi Vince, Is there hope for Bryan Buxton? What have you heard about his play at AAA? Thanks, Doug
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Oh yeah. You know the injuries have just slowed his development a bit. But he’s a superb defender, a dynamic athlete. Once he figures out the hitting thing, he’ll be fine. So far, so good at Triple-A. The main thing is, he’s playing hard.

Satchel (Las vegas): Vince, the Hot sheet is thin on AL players, but from an AL perspective, what one player is the next Mike Trout? A 5-tool player? Thanks
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Moncada. That guy will be a force, barring injury. Steals bases, hits, hits for power, slick defender.

Nik (tampa, FL): How could can Junior Fernandez be? He seems to have lights out stuff and decent control to go with it for being so young.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, Peoria has some staff, eh? Four guys who throw hard and have stuff with bends in it. Junior’s good. I prefer Alcantara a bit more because he’s more projectable, but that’s just me. Fernandez has hit triple-digits, has a good change, and he’s feeling the zone more now too.

Joseph Jenkins (New Jersey): Who has higher upside Albert Abreu or David Paulino? Both seem to have wicked stuff and Paulino is having success in AA.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I have not seen Paulino in person, but you have to love the stuff and size. Real feel to pitch and seems to have lost nothing after Tommy John surgery in 2014. He was a throw-in in the Jose Veras deal from the Tigers, just as Francis Martes was an “add-on gem” (TM Ben Badler) in the Colin Moran-Jarred Cosart deal. The Astros can scout, man. Abreu’s good, too. I saw him one cold night in Burlington, Iowa, and he came into the game in the sixth inning and was 96 mph and smooth. He’s less projectable, a bit stockier, but has great pitchability. Real bulldog.

Greg Morales (Westchester, NY): Tyler O'Neill has started out hot in AA. What does his time line look like to the majors. Seems like he has the making of 25+ homer power if he can make contact. Any concerns with O'Neill?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Sure, as with just about any player. He just has trouble picking up breaking stuff, and more importantly, can’t stop his bat. He tweaked his stance a little bit but get used to swing and miss. He can really rip it when he makes contact, though.

Greg (VA Beach): Who has the better career, Dansby Swanson or Brendan Rodgers, and when do you think each is up?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Tough. Swanson will definitely get to the big leagues first. 2017, if not late this year. He’ll be steady. He won’t be a big stats guy—I think you’ll see a peak of .270/.350/.460—damn good for a shortstop. He’s a 10-15 HR guy, good line drive swing. What scouts and managers love the most is the baseball IQ and mentality. You don’t see many No. 1 overall picks—especially those with a broken jaw—on the top step of the dugout in short-season ball rooting on guys he didn’t know two weeks ago. Rodgers has the more potent bat, and the Rockies believe he can stay at short. But just as the ceiling is higher, the floor is lower, to me.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Ronald Herrera is looking good for a 21 year old in AA? How does his stuff project up the ladder?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I like Herrera and was surprised the Padres traded him for Jose Pirela, although the Padres had good reports on the energetic Pirela. Herrera’s a bit undersized, but—full disclosure—he’d have ranked in the teens for San Diego in the Handbook if not for the trade. Herrera’s not particularly physical, and does not have much projection left, but he’s very athletic with an easy-to-repeat delivery. With the fastball, he shows above-average command to both sides of the plate, and touched 94 mph while sitting 90-93. Herrera also throws a cutter and a big, soft curveball.

Mike (San Diego): With Dinelson Lamet pitching so well in the Cal League at an advanced age but limited professional experience, how aggressively would you push him at this point? Does the fact that San Antonio's roster is such a dumpster fire come into play?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Haha, it doesn’t. I mean, at a certain point, clubhouse issues might—MIGHT—be an issue to keep a player away from. But the Padres really think Lamet can move quickly. He has very advanced pitchability for a player of his experience level. If he went to the bullpen, he could be in the majors this year because he could survive with the fastball/slider combo.

Bernie (Vermont): If I'm elected president, every team will have a Cody Reed!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Feel the Bern!

James (Boston): Ronald Guzman is hitting .350 in AA, havent heard much about him after few bad seasons. Any new info? Antonio Sentezela has had some good starts, future middle of roation guy or more?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Guzman is raking at Double-A for sure. He’s showing a much better approach and the power has shown up; he’s a smart guy; he’s figuring things out. Senzatela is one of my favorite prospects (#cheeseball), but a shoulder issue has kept him off the field since April 14. I asked that question to an evaluator about reliever or starter, and right now, the plan is to start. He’s not a big guy, so it’s a fair question, but the pitch mix portends starter.

Scott (Chicago): What kind of upside does Albert Abreu have if he can harness his control and keep developing? Top of the rotation kind of guy?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I don’t think he has enough projectability to be a top-of-the-rotation guy. But how many guys like that really exist? Five? 10? He’s not a big guy, not especially physical and really needs to develop a third pitch.

Steve (California): Does Benintendi have anything left to learn at Hi-A? Other than it's only been a month.. do you have any thoughts or hear any rumblings on why he hasn't moved up to AA?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Remember the guy was getting ready for the College World Series a year ago at this time. Nothing wrong with slowing things up a bit. One thing the Red Sox don’t need is another outfielder. They can allow him to stay at high A until after the league all-star break, at least.

MattyMSG (NYC): When do you foresee Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon combining forces with Gerrit Cole to match the Mets amazing young pitching staff? Is that a fair comparison and do you think these guys can make it up to the majors this year and pitch into October?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Glasnow will be up first, probably late June? Maybe after the ASG? And Taillon will be up this year as well, as long as he stays healthy. It’s not a fair comparison, simply because the Mets staff has done it. It’s very difficult to predict that same kind of success for young pitchers. You never know how pitchers react to a third deck in a stadium, an extra 35,000 people, media, noise, flying. Also, both Glasnow and Taillon have flaws that teams have already detected: they are very easy to run on. MLB teams will look to exploit that.

William J Lapedomaine (Rock Ridge, TX): Any news on Hunter Harvey and when he will return to the minors? Does he still have that #2 upside?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It is difficult to continue to have that expectation for a player who simply does not suit up. Harvey has not pitched since July 2014 and he is out until at least June after hernia surgery.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Which Reds current starter profiles best as a future closer: Brandon Finnegan, Michael Lorenzen, Rookie Davis, Sal Romano, or Nick Travieso? Could all these guys be in the bullpen with Bailey/Iglesias/Stephenson/Reed/Garrett in the rotation?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I actually think Garrett makes the best closer of all the pitchers you mentioned.

Browning Nagle (Louisville, KY): Austin Meadows is really struggling so far. Are there any comps for the injury he had and how long it took to get comfortable again at the plate that you know of?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Always happy to answer a question from a former Jets great. It’s been nine games for Meadows. Difficult to call it a struggle. It’s difficult to quantify an eye injury or try to compare to another player. But clearly, there’s game-speed rust to knock off first and then just getting comfortable seeing again. I’ve had some eye issues of late and it affects everything.

Austin Allen (Fort Wayne): Will my on-base percentage dip below .500 at some point before I get moved off catcher?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Haha, I saw you last night and you didn’t ask me that. Interesting … The Padres really want Allen to stay behind the plate. His at-bats have improved. He hung in well last night against Reed. He doesn’t really have any ah-ha moment on why he’s hitting better this season. That said, the defense remains a work in progress.

Jas (Delta): Hi Vince, If you could pick one prospect to build a team around who would it be? Thanks, Jas
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yoan Moncada. Nuff said, as one former BA great said.

IronPigs (BaconUSA): How much longer do we get to enjoy Nick Williams? It seems like the Phils could benefit from a decent stick in the OF.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It really depends on whether the Phillies believe it’s worth burning some of Nick Williams’ Super 2 clock. If this renaissance is real, then maybe. It’s an early-season fluke, then no. Let him play at Triple-A. He’s had just 80-at bats.

Tatum (Clearwater, FL): Vince, What can tell me about Josh Staumont in KC organization. His per inning K rate is crazy. I know it is a small sample size. Is he for real, if so, frontline, 2, 3, or a bullpen arm. Thanks
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: That control, though, as the kids say. There are instances of players getting their control under control (https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/lee-exits-exhibit-effect-command/#KbBKXk88VuRiZ7Vy.97) so perhaps Staumont will get a handle on it. But right now, that’s a reliever profile, at best.

Nolan (Houston, TX): Vince, with Bregman playing like a stud in AA right now and ascending quickly, where in the world does he play in the bigs when he hits?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Depends. He’s clearly not going to play shortstop or second base. He could slide over to third—although Colin Moran continues to rake—or he could play left field. It’s a good problem.

Robert (New York): Vince, Thanks for the time. What is going on with the Indian youngsters Zimmer and Frazier struggling this year in AA, Zimmer more so? Who has the higher ceiling?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not really struggling much. Zimmer’s slugging .484 and Frazier .446 and in Frazier’s case not bad for first shot at AA. Zimmer’s the better defender in CF, and I believe Frazier has the more potent bat.

walter (Plano, Texas): What are your thoughts on how quickly the Braves are moving Albies and Swanson? I know a very short sample but Albies overmatched quickly in AAA. I am more for creating long term successful and mentally healthy players rather than newsmakers! (Braves)
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Dude, Albies has had 22 at-bats at Triple-A! At 19!! They would not have promoted him if they did not think he could handle it mentally. Both players will be fine.

Ryan (Indy): Jose Altuve is a smaller player, but has hit for pretty decent power for his size. Could you see Albies adding that kind of power as well, or is he a completely different kind of hitter?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, he’s completely different. The only real comp for Altuve I guess is Pedroia, and even Pedroia seems to tower over Altuve. Albies is table-setter in the classic sense. Not what a leadoff guy is today, which is a player like Altuve or Machado batting first last season, guys who can punch you in the mouth leading off.

Mike (San Diego): The unsustainable .500 BABIP might help explain why Austin's hitting so much better this year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Sure. But high BABIPs go hand-in-hand with high AVG for the most part. Obviously, it’ll normalize and we’ll have a larger sample size to nitpick over.

Bryan (Burnaby): Who does Victor Robles remind you of?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Willie Mays. Kidding! I don’t know. I’m not comfortable putting a comp on a player unless a scout does it first. But he’s obviously a five-tool guy and everything in the toolshed is showing up this season.

Peter (ontario): What are your thoughts on Tyler O'Neil? 20 tear old more than holding his own at AA, zero press. Should have made this week's Hot List.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Asked and answered, counselor.

Patrick Bateman (Dorsia): Any idea when we can expect Yadier Alvarez and Triston McKenzie to be moved to minor league teams? Also, any word of their stuff so far in extended ST?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Have to answer this just because of the name. Have you seen Marcus Halberstram around? I have not heard word of stuff in extended. It’s usually a time to work stuff out, rather than go full-tilt. Both will hit short-season clubs when those seasons open in June.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): SS Yu-Cheng Chang seems to be on his way to a breakout season. For the week he was 474/565/578. Did he come close?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yep. We’ve got a spreadsheet of players each week. We pick the initial 20; then some other BA staffers make cases for players left off. Sometimes we go through several iterations. This week, for example, Benintendi was on, then off, then back on in place of Kevin Padlo. and Jordan Guerrero was on, and then replaced by Kyle Freeland.

nictaclact (Phoenix): Do you think that Tyler Jay can develop into a relevant starter or revert back to the bullpen?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, absolutely believe it. Got to see Jay quite a bit last year in regionals and super regionals and his ball just has a different sound. One scout compare him to Cliff Lee for stuff and mound demeanor. I think his slider is very good.

Jim (Berlin, NJ): Dejong at 3B in 2018 for Cards and will hit tool produce at least .260?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Maybe? Man, does he take a big cut. I think, however, if he hit .260 with power, the Cardinals would take it. By 2018? who knows, a meteor could hit. Alrighta folks, that’s it for me today. Watch for me out at a Midwest League ballpark near you.