Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (July 1)

Moderator: Kyle Glaser will make his Hot Sheet chat debut today. Join him at 2 p.m. Eastern.

SteveB (Philly): First and foremost - welcome to the Hot Sheet Chat!! A highlight of the week for many of us!!! Rhys Hoskins. Seemingly solid bat with power. Yes a first baseman, but hit tool seems to be strong. How is he being viewed these days on the overall prospect scale?
Kyle Glaser: Thanks Steve. Glad to be a part of the Baseball America team and happy I could provide a highlight for you. There is no question Hoskins can rake, and the success he’s had now in Double-A I think solidifies his hitting ability is for real. Successfully making the jump from Hi-A to AA like he has will improve any hitters prospect outlook, so safe to say its risen. His defense is still a major concern though, and the possibility he might end up a DH-only prevents him from being a top-level guy though

3rd & Chicago (951): I've been a big David Fletcher fan since his Cypress HS days. Now finally healthy in Inland Empire, do you see him as a potential Big League starter at SS or 2B or a solid utility infielder?
Kyle Glaser: Fletcher missed five weeks with tendinitis in his left hand but is hitting .303 with a .378 OBP since his return. His profile remains that of a utility infielder long-term, with speed, contact ability, and the ability to hold down both second and short. I do think he plays both positions soundly enough that he could earn a chance to start down the road as long as he hits, but utilityman is generally the long-term outlook for him

DJ Peterson (*Finally* with the AAA club): I'm walking, driving in runs, and tapping into my power. Have I finally clicked? Who has more upside as a big league hitter, me or that Hunter Dozier cream puff?
Kyle Glaser: Well, you reportedly struggled with confidence and handling inside pitches after that nasty pitch broke your jaw in 2013, which AA pitchers were able to exploit once you got to that level, but you appear to have finally gotten past that and are back to pummeling baseballs. I think you have more upside, but the fact Dozier is already in the midst of a strong Triple-A campaign gives him an edge at present.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Welcome Kyle! Francisco Mejia gets a week off from the Hot Prospect list but being selected to the Futures Game and earning a promotion to the Carolina League nearly compensates. How high does he rate among catching prospects now?
Kyle Glaser: Thanks Elliot. You’ll get the exact spot we have Mejia ranked among catching prospects when our midseason top prospect list comes out (spoiler: He’s one of our top 5)

Glen (Glendora): What's your opinion on Franchy Cordero? Also is Javier Guerra stock in free fall or is their hope?
Kyle Glaser: I was very impressed with the way Franchy played center field in Lake Elsinore. Long strides, great glove, really looked the part and held his own. He still strikes out too much (25.6 percent this year) and isn’t very efficient with his speed (11-19 SB), but I think his increased productivity and promise in CF have made him more of a prospect in my eyes. Regarding Guerra, the hope rests in the fact he is still more than two years younger than the Cal League average and has shown power (13 2B and 8 HR) and fantastic range at short. Problem is his approach has been described alternately as “atrocious” and “non-existent” by scouts and he has trouble recognizing offspeed pitches, while defensively he has too many lapses in focuses. His stock has dropped significantly, but his problems are fixable and he’s young enough I wouldn’t call him hopeless.

Jeff (Chicago, IL): Would you place Reynaldo Lopez in the top 5 pitching prospects in the game now? Top 25 overall? How much has his stock risen this season and does he have ace potential?
Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t put him that high, seeing as Reyes, Giolito, Glasnow, Espinoza, Berrios, and others are all still prospects. That said said, Lopez has definitely risen his stock significantly this year. I don’t know if I’d say he has ace potential a la Strasburg or Scherzer, but there’s no question his stuff and track record project to him as a very good starter for a long time.

Ian Happ (Tennessee): Just how good can I be? I mean, I'm really good right now, but what's my ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: You can be a first-division regular, possibly even an occasional all-star.

Hunter Renfroe (El Paso): Why are you guys so hung up on my walk totals? You don't think I can take a walk? Of course I can. But I want to impress the big club and I do that by driving in runs. It's not like I'm hitting .250 and not getting on base. Also, I'm one of the few humans alive who can clear the fences at Petco with any consistency, so why all the hate?
Kyle Glaser: Funny you mention, I’m not really hung up on your walk totals at all. You’ll see in my Padres midseason prospect update shortly how much we love you. You’re due is coming, don’t worry

Jim (Berlin, NJ): What's behind the Cornelius Randolph demotion to GCL, after just 50 AB in the Sally? Offense-starved Phillies fans were hoping a more polished hit tool would be on display.
Kyle Glaser: 13 strikeouts in 56 PA and some ugly defense in left field was behind the demotion. Randolph was 19 playing against 21 year olds, and clearly the Phillies felt he wasn’t ready for that at the start of this year. He’s played only 65 games as a professional and been young at each level, so I wouldn’t jump off the boat yet regarding his ability or potential as a hitter. Hitting is a refined skill that takes time, even for the most naturally gifted.

Matt (Denver): Do you expect Chris Paddack to keep piling up the strikeouts as he progresses to higher levels? And is AJ Preller correct to view him as a future #2 or 3 starter?
Kyle Glaser: The strikeout stuff is there for him, although I don’t think anyone expects him to keep averaging his insane 15.6 K/9 right now. Preller told media his FB has ticked up to 90-95 with a darn good curveball, and his size, track record, and stuff absolutely backs up Preller’s view of Paddack as a potential No. 2 or 3.

Queen Elizabeth (London Town): Speaking of Brexits, will LA really soon pull Urias from the rotation, instead of just managing the workload like they have been? Is there a genuine correlation between coddling pitchers and injury avoidance? I may be showing my 90 years, but where have all the Don Drysdales gone?
Kyle Glaser: Well, the Dodgers manager Dave Roberts keeps saying “we’ll see” about Urias getting another start after every outing, and every time Urias ends up starting again. There has been a ton of research showing that yes, certain innings boosts do correlate to higher risk of injury. Folks who could last forever like Nolan Ryan and Don Drysdale were the exception, many more pitchers from past days who pitched heavy workloads had the effectiveness of their careers cut short because of it – Think Frank Tanana, who was a three-time All-Star by age 24, got hurt in his age 25 season after throwing more than 1,300 innings, and was never nearly as dominant again, going from upper-90s lefthander to crafty offspeed pitcher. At least he managed to still have a major league career, many others whose names we now forget did not

Satchel (Las Vegas): Thanks for the time. Does Gallo get traded as the centerpiece for an arm? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: Anything is possible, although I think it’d be a surprise to see Gatto moved, especially considering there aren’t that many quality arms on the market this year (no Hamels, Cueto types, etc.). With Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland both hitting under .230 with sub.-300 OBPs, Gallo may be more valuable to Texas as a DH/1B option than anything else

bob (DE): Jose DeLeon just pitched his last rehab start at 5ip-87 pitches. When does he get called up now that Kershaw is out??
Kyle Glaser: He’s only pitched 23 1/3 innings at Triple-A, has twice had arm issues this year and was coming off a start in which he gave up 7 hits in 3 1/3 innings. De Leon is talented, but he’s still developing and has got to show he’s healthy. I’d expect to see Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu back in the rotation before we see any more callups.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Kyle. Phil Bickford hasn't slowed down since hitting the Cal league. Do you see #2 starter potential or is that too high?
Kyle Glaser: No I think you’re right on. I was speaking with some Blue Jays scouts the other day who are still lamenting the fact they couldn’t sign him. No. 2 starter is very much in the cards

Matt (Denver): I realize he is no longer a prospect, but what should we make of Austin Hedges tearing the cover off the ball in the hitter friendly PCL? Has he really improved significantly as a hitter?
Kyle Glaser: Someone asked me this on Twitter the other day too. Some of Hedges success is definitely PCL-fueled (no one thinks he’s really a 20 HR potential guy in the majors), but he has made strength gains and improved his approach and selectivity, as expected for a guy who everyone forgets just played only his 50th game at the AAA level. Rushing him to the majors last year before he was ready could have hurt him, but Hedges apparently took it as a learning experience of what he needed to do to get better and has put it to work at AAA.

Brett Phillips (Biloxi): Hi. While going over park adjustment data on BA I couldn't find our ballpark in Biloxi listed. Maybe it's just an oversight on my part. Question: because my Tav is .300 this season, and my ISO sits at .225, is it safe to say that my park doesn't play well offensively, and that I'm not having as bad a year as it may look just going by my .254 average? Also, is it fair to say that I'm striking out a bit too much because to generate power in the muggy air -- and that's what you scouts wanted to see out of me, was power -- I have to really crank up my swing? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: The Southern League in general skews pitcher friendly, but Biloxi actually ranked as the most hitter-friendly park in the league last year, with a 136 Park Factor for HRs. It did decrease BABIP by about seven percent though. So basically, Phillips probably is hitting a little better than his .254 average indicated, but the power numbers he’s showing might actually be artificially boosted. The fact that seven of his 11 HR have come at home could be seen as a reflection of that.

bob (DE): Where do Lux, WSmith and Sheffield fit in top 30 prospects of Dodgers...Is Sheffield the highest ranking of the three?
Kyle Glaser: In such a deep system I wouldn’t personally have any of them in the top 5 Dodgers prospects, with Bellinger, De Leon, Verdugo, Holmes, and Montes the top 5 for me. And yes, Sheffield was our No. 23 prospect in the BA 500, with Lux No. 36 and Smith No. 74

Matt R (Chicago, IL): hi Kyle, has Austin Meadows made himself into a top-5 overall prospect? Can he stave off the injury demons?
Kyle Glaser: Top 5 no, top 10 yes. Regarding injuries, you never know, you can only hope.

fisher (dodge City, KS): With Snell promoted, who are the top 2 SP arms to watch on the TB farm? They are loaded!
Kyle Glaser: Brett Honeywell No. 1, No. 2 you’re probably looking at Taylor Guerrieri

Jim (Atl): What does max fried need to do to get some recognition from you guys ? He put better numbers this week then multiple guys you chose
Kyle Glaser: Our dates for eligibility for this list were 6/24-6/30. He only made one start in that time and, while it was excellent (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 9 K) the level it was at wasn’t quite as convincing as some of our guys who made two starts in the week or one dominant start at a higher level. That said, if we had counted his start from 6/23 (6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 6 K) on top of that, Fried would’ve made the cut. Just missed it by a day

Chris (Northern Cal): Can Gettys hit enough to be a valuable major leaguer?
Kyle Glaser: If you had asked this question before the season the answer likely would’ve have been “doubtful”. However, with the changes in approach, mentality and mechanics he’s made, the answer is now “he’s got a shot”. Still needs to tamp down the swing and miss, but what he’s doing right now at the plate in his age 20 season is very promising.

Greg (Yo momma's house): Antonio Santillan? 19 k , 3 BB in 8.2 Innings at Billings.
Kyle Glaser: The date range for this hot sheet was 6/24-6/30. Santillan’s first start you’re using in those stats came on 6/22. So that first start was counted towards last weeks hot sheet. At the same time, no question Santillan is off to a fantastic start this year and is worth keeping an eye on

nb (philly): Hey Kyle - Aristides Aquino had a nice week and has raised his average to .283 in the FSL. He's always had the tools. Are the skills finally catching up or is this just a hot streak? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Aquino just missed our cut for this weeks hot sheet. It’s more than just a small-sample size hot streak given he’s hitting .324/.373./556 in his last 54 games since getting off to a slow start, but he’s also 22 years old playing in Hi-A, so it’s hard to definitively say he’s arrived. How he fares against Double-A competition will be a better indicator there

MLBHammersBoston (Boston): For 2017 12 team dynasty league, who do you want and why? Brinson, Swanson, or benintendi?
Kyle Glaser: I always love these. I’d go Swanson given his positional value in SS in those leagues. Benintendi and Brinson are both excellent, but it’s easier to find offensively productive outfielders than offensively productive shortstops in fantasy

stacia (paris, FR): Who gets to Cleveland first, Zimmer or Frazier, and who sticks in their respective position? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: Frazier. He is younger and playing better at the same level (AA) as Zimmer. But, while Frazier gets to Cleveland first, Zimmer takes over at CF once he gets there.

Tatum (Clearwater, FL): Kyle, Who do you like better Mateo or Adames at the major league level. Mateo seems to have speed, Adames little more power. Who gets there first? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: I’ll go Adames. Personally I prefer guys who are a little more advanced with the bat and have the production to show for it, and it’s important to note Adames is one level higher despite being younger than Mateo.

Tatum (clearwater, FL): Is Mike Clevinger ready for the show the second time. First time did not fair so well. Is he a 3 or 4 type starter at best?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, but the Indians have nowhere to really put him with their current rotation being so dominant. I think 4-5 is more likely because his control remains inconsistent at best

David (San Diego): Thoughts on whether Urias will be able to add enough strength to his frame to do damage with his amazing bat-to-ball skills as he goes up?
Kyle Glaser: Power isn’t really his game and I don’t think it ever will be. I think you’re looking at a potential .300 AVG, .360 OBP guy with minimal power, which is just fine at 2b

Kevin (Baltimore): Will Chance Sisco's bat play in the majors? Can he stay behind home plate? If not, where?
Kyle Glaser: Yes on the bat. Beautiful line drive stroke, great approach. Scouts in the Orioles system I’ve spoken with believe he can stick there, and I believe they are going to give it a real shot. If it fails, he’s athletic enough to move to a corner outfield spot.

Alex Jackson (Clinton, Iowa): Am I back? Or at least showing signs of life?
Kyle Glaser: No. Still striking out way too much (27.1 percent) and bat path still an issue. Gotta correct it before I buy it

Kyle Zimmer (Kansas City, MO): Is my shoulder ever going to hold up enough for me to pitch? Any recent news on me?
Kyle Glaser: Well, you’re currently shut down with shoulder fatigue. The best predictor of future injury is past injury, and given your track record, very few still have faith you can hold up long enough to ever capitalize on your potential

Connor (Idaho): I cannot understand why Ryon Healy is so underrated. His hit tool is plus. He's an xbh machine. And he's still got a Ton of raw power he's yet to tap in to. I remember when Paul goldschmidt was in the minors and I kept seeing someone who's a future superstar. The scouts disagreed with me. I see the same in Healy. And Healy does not strikeout as much as you would think he does. What's your take on 'the future God' Ryon Healy? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: At some point you just gotta admit a guy just keeps doing something right, and that’s Healy right now. I’m not comfortable making comparisons to a perennial MVP candidate like Goldy, but Healy right now absolutely looks like a major league-caliber hitter and producing as such. As long as he continues, the A’s or someone else will find a spot for him

Fred (New York, New York): What are your thoughts on Miguel Andujar? He's having a nice season. Is he a top 100 prospect now to you?
Kyle Glaser: Raw power prospects often need time to refine their approach to make it translate to games, and that is what Andujar has done, cutting his strikeouts way down and finding better pitches to hit. He’s not quite a top-100 guy yet, but if he keeps hitting like he is right now in AA he will be soon. That’s all for today everyone. Thanks for making my first chat a great one. Look forward to many more in the future.