Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (April 15)

Mike (atlanta): Braves fan here. We WILL win our first game someday! Always nice to see Soroka, but what about Blair? His first two starts were nothing to sneeze at.
Matt Eddy: Braves RHP Aaron Blair went 2-0, 2.25 this week with 12-4 SO-BB and 10 H in 12 innings. He pitched exceptionally well and is the pitching analog to Mallex Smith, as the Atlanta prospect most likely to contribute in the majors in 2016. Truthfully, prospects at higher levels tend to get overlooked in our weekly Hot Sheet reviews because their performance numbers aren’t typically as loud as low-level prospects. This is the product of competition level. It’s easier to dominate Low-A competition than Triple-A competition.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Jose Peraza has been splitting reps in AAA between SS and CF (and hitting well). Which position do you think he ends up at in the long run?
Matt Eddy: If those are the two options, I would probably say CF. But I think Peraza profiles best as a table-setting second baseman.

Dan (Miami FL): Was Jacob Faria considered for your list, Matt? thanks
Matt Eddy: He sure was. Rays RHP Jacob Faria is on the 40-man roster, but he’s still largely anonymous. Look for that to change this season. He recorded 15 SO in 12.2 IP this week while recording a 2.84 ERA and issuing just three walks at Double-A Montgomery. Faria is building an impressive resume of success.

Jack (WA): I was surprised to see the SB mentioned as a knock against Edwin Diaz. Is that really a thing that could hold him back?
Matt Eddy: Every baserunner advance impacts the likelihood of runs being scored that inning, so if a pitcher allows an inordinate number of SBs then that can impact his ERA. Last season, Mariners RHP Edwin Diaz allowed 32 steals in 48 attempts, and I had him as the second-worst minor league pitcher in terms of SB attempts per baserunner. He allowed about 32 more SB attempts than the average pitcher in his leagues. However, holding runners is not necessarily a prerequisite to success. Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta and Tyson Ross are all terrible at holding baserunners at first base, yet they are three of the most effective overall pitchers in the NL.

Matt (Kansas City): Do you see Bubba Starling ever becoming anything more than a 4th outfielder?
Matt Eddy: I like Royals CF Bubba Starling in a Drew Stubbs-type role. Platoon starter versus lefthanders, fine late-game defensive replacement or pinch-runner. He does have attributes that can help a successful big league team. In a bygone era, he might have been a stronger bench candidate, but few teams carry specialized pinch-hitters anymore.

Brian (Greensboro, NC): Aaron Blair - the unknown man coming with Swanson and Inciarte to the Braves. What is his ceiling? Will we see him in Atlanta in 2016?
Matt Eddy: Aaron Blair should be a quality No. 3 or 4 starter for several years. He misses enough bats and doesn’t hurt himself with walks or excessive flyballs. You definitely will see him this year, possibly soon. He’s as good right now as he’s likely to ever be.

Diego (San Diego): Did Knapp get some consideration for the list? And does he reach Philly before Alfaro?
Matt Eddy: Yes, Triple-A Lehigh Valley C Andrew Knapp received consideration after hitting .417 with 2 XBH and 4 BB this week. I am intrigued by his offensive profile: switch-hitter with plus power for the position. I think Knapp is more refined than Jorge Alfaro all around, and though he lacks Alfaro’s gonzo arm strength, he’s a much safer bet to get to Philly first as a catcher.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Raul Mondesi's approach seems different this year during his second stab at Double-A hitters. He's walking more, he isn't striking out as much, and his at-bats in general seem to be deeper than they were last year. Then again, Nick Williams looked the same last April and tailed off. When - if (big if) Mondesi keeps this up - do we start talking about a potential fundamental change (for the better) in his approach?
Matt Eddy: Interesting observation, and it’s worth filing away as a potential sign that a Mondesi breakout is near.

Keith (Farmington, CT): Thanks Matt. Isan Diaz raked in rookie ball but had a ridiculously high BABIP (.434). Now he's started very hot in a small sample at Lo A. Just how high is his ceiling?
Matt Eddy: Ah, the Pioneer League, home to the highest BABIP (.339) in the affiliated U.S. minors or majors and the highest isolated slugging percentage (.145) in the U.S. minors. I like him as a future starting second baseman with a nice offensive ceiling.

Jeb (Chattahoochie): Not enough innings to put Grand Master Kap on the list?
Matt Eddy: Yankees 2015 first-rounder James Kaprielian allowed one run on three hits in 5 innings, striking out nine and walking none. To this point, the UCLA product looks like a major coup at No. 16 overall in the draft.

Ryan (Indy): If all of Atlanta's pitching prospects reach their full potential and stay healthy, what would their ideal rotation, and backend bullpen look like in 3 years?
Matt Eddy: Our spring feature on the Braves’ rebuild focused on Touki Toussaint, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, Max Fried and Kolby Allard, but now Mike Soroka is one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in the game. And that doesn’t account for the second wave of pitchers such as Lucas Sims, Manny Banuelos, Chris Ellis, Tyrell Jenkins and Ricardo Sanchez. You really have to like the potential of the top six listed — if they can stay healthy and if Toussaint and Newcomb can tame their wild streaks.

Aaron (Duncanville, TX): Do you believe Joey Gallo makes an impact with the Rangers this year? Or is 2017 more likely with Beltre and Moreland upcoming free agents?
Matt Eddy: Sure. He hit 6 HR in about 100 at-bas last year with Texas, while recording a 91 OPS+ as a 21-year-old. He will add polish at Triple-A this spring and be better for it once he reaches the majors.

Bob (MN): Jorge Polanco has mostly been playing 2B in Rochester. Have the Twins given up on him as a SS option and if so does that make him trade bait?
Matt Eddy: Twins 2B Jorge Polanco always has been a questionable shortstop defender, given his good but not great offensive potential. The way this season has played out for the Twins, though, trading young talent for MLB assets is the worst possible move at this juncture. If anything, trading Brian Dozier as he nears age 30 is the better play.

Bobby (Chicago): Both David Dahl and Clint Frazier are off to great starts in AA, who has the faster ETA and which do you see being a more productive big leaguer?
Matt Eddy: Frazier has more explosive offensive potential, but Dahl does it easier. I may be in the minority, but I prefer Frazier for his ability to blend power and patience in a way that Dahl hasn’t shown, and also for his longer track record for health.

Larry (Long Island new york): What will Bregman have to do to reach Houston, move to third or will he be waiting on a trade
Matt Eddy: Bregman’s overall game would seem to fit best at second base, but the Astros have all-star Jose Altuve there, of course. Bregman should be versatile enough to win a share of third base, if he keeps hitting all season long. The Astros don’t look they’ll be drafting high enough to land another talent like Bregman, the No. 2 overall selection last year, any time soon, which might make trading him a difficult proposition.

Formerly the Smasher (Earth): He's not a prospect anymore but wondering if there's any hope that Jesus Montero could rediscover some of his bat in the Jays system. I mean his big league triple slash isn't awful. Think he could steal some at bats from Cola this summer?
Matt Eddy: I think Jesus Montero is a great reclamation project for the Blue Jays, because he has actual value to reclaim, albeit at the minor league level only. Plus, the Rogers Centre really seems to play well for RH power, so maybe Montero needs to adopt the Jose Bautista pull-everything hitting philosophy.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Was Robert Stephenson in consideration after a good AAA start in which he generated 17 swing and misses?
Matt Eddy: A pitcher with three plus offerings and a No. 1 prospect pedigree would always be in consideration for the Hot Sheet. Given the eight-day window we looked at this time, pitchers who made two (minor league) starts since Opening Day tended to be smiled upon this time. That won’t be true next time with a seven-day window.

Matt (PA): Jorge Alfaro is off to a scorching start. A sign of a possible breakout or just a hot start?
Matt Eddy: This answer pertains to both Phillies C Jorge Alfaro (hot start) and Reds OF Jesse Winker (no XBH), who both are at Double-A: conditions in April are unlike any players will see the rest of the season. The weather is different. The schedule is different. The personnel is different as players find their natural levels of competition through promotions/demotions. Be careful not to read too much into April stats.

B. Lewis (Minneapolis): If Kohl Stewart can retain the K-rate he's shown through his first 2 starts will it answer the doubts people had after last year's terrible K-rate? Additionally, how high could he reach on the Top 100 prospect list if his K-rate holds up?
Matt Eddy: If he finishes the year with a respectable SO rate, then yes Twins RHP Kohl Stewart will pitch himself back onto the Top 100. As to the former question, Stewart is trending in the right direction after two starts, and you would rather see a prospect perform than not perform. But remember that it’s still early.

Matt Eddy: Thanks for the questions today. The Prospect Hot Sheet returns next Friday.