Projected Field Of 64 (May 4)

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64
Gainesville, FL	Hattiesburg, MS
1. (1) Florida^*	1. Southern Mississippi^*
2. South Alabama*	2. Virginia
3. Clemson	3. Southeastern Louisiana*
4. Monmouth*	4. Jacksonville*
Coral Gables, FL	Minneapolis
1. (2) Miami^*	1. Minnesota^*
2. Florida Atlantic	2. Oregon State
3. Kentucky	3. Cal State Fullerton*
4. Princeton*	4. Bryant*
Columbia, SC	Conway, SC
1. (3) South Carolina^	1. Coastal Carolina^*
2. UNC Wilmington*	2. Vanderbilt
3. Wake Forest	3. North Carolina
4. Navy*	4. Virginia Commonwealth*
Lubbock, TX	Seattle
1. (4) Texas Tech^*	1. Washington^*
2. Arizona	2. UC Santa Barbara
3. Dallas Baptist*	3. Alabama
4. Oral Roberts*	4. Seattle*
College Station, TX	Houston
1. (5) Texas A&M^	1. Rice^
2. Creighton*	2. Texas Christian
3. Arizona State	3. Lamar
4. Binghamton*	4. New Mexico*
Tallahassee, FL	Oxford, MS
1. (6) Florida State^	1. Mississippi^
2. Michigan	2. Louisiana-Lafayette
3. Gonzaga	3. California
4. Florida A&M*	4. Southeast Missouri State*
Louisville, KY	Stillwater, OK
1. (7) Louisville^	1. Oklahoma State^
2. Tulane	2. Louisiana State
3. Long Beach State	3. Brigham Young*
4. Wright State*	4. Kent State*
Starkville, MS	Raleigh, NC
1. (8) Mississippi State	1. North Carolina State^
2. Georgia Tech	2. East Carolina*
3. Maryland	3. Michigan State
4. Alabama State*	4. UNC Greensboro*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Last Four In: Long Beach State, Lamar, Arizona State, Maryland
First Four Out: Saint Mary’s, Notre Dame, Duke, Connecticut
Next Four Out: Louisiana Tech, Boston College, High Point, Pittsburgh

Bids By Conference
9: ACC, SEC
5: Pac-12
4: Big Ten
3: Big 12, Big West, Conference USA
2: American, Southland, Sun Belt, West Coast
1: A-10, A-Sun, America East, Big East, Big South, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Summit, SWAC, WAC

New Hosts: Oklahoma State, Washington
New Auto Bid: Monmouth (MAAC)
New At-Large Bids: Arizona State, Long Beach State, Maryland
Dropped Out: College of Charleston, Notre Dame, Saint Mary’s

• We wrote last week about how no conference has ever gotten four national seeds in one year, and that the committee would still likely avoid this if at all possible. But, with Coastal Carolina getting swept by Georgia Tech last weekend, that takes one of the few non-ACC/SEC options off the table. We’re left to reckon with 15 of the top 18 teams in the RPI on WarrenNolan.com residing in the ACC and SEC. Coastal is still one of them at No. 16, but their getting swept in Atlanta will be extremely difficult to overcome. Of the other two, Texas Tech solidified its place among the national seeds by taking two of three at Texas Christian last weekend. The Red Raiders are only No. 12 in the RPI, but as the likely regular-season champ from the Big 12 and one of the only non-ACC/SEC options, they look like a safe bet.

The other “interloper,” is UC Santa Barbara at No. 10. The Gauchos—leaving aside for the moment the issue of whether they can find a park to actually host in—would be a strong candidate should they win the Big West conference title. Recall that the Big West has no tournament, just a regular-season champion. However, the Gauchos remain in second place in the league, a game behind Cal State Fullerton, which they still have to play. If UCSB wins that series and goes on to claim the Big West, while maintaining a top-10 RPI, it’d also likely get a national seed.

There’s no getting around that the Gauchos would have fewer quality wins than the teams they’re getting compared to—they have just three top 50 wins as of now. But with the RPI so heavily favoring teams in the Southeast, a West Coast team that finds a way to stay that high would be very attractive. And yes, geographic balance almost certainly would be a factor, acknowledged or not. But if they finish in second place, there’s zero chance of them getting into the national seeds, strong RPI or not. They also have much less margin for error—11 of their last 16 games are against teams outside the top 100, so any unexpected losses would hurt them.

• For the time being, we’ll hold off on elevating the Gauchos, as essentially every series they have left is a must-win if they want to be a national seed and it was just two weeks ago they got swept by Cal Poly. That leaves us choosing a fourth ACC or SEC team, a bridge we’ve been hesitant to cross. The leading candidates are Mississippi (No. 6 in the RPI), Mississippi State (No. 11) and North Carolina State (No. 8). We can start to narrow things down by noting that the Bulldogs have gone 3-1 against Ole Miss, and the two teams are tied in the SEC standings, both at 12-9. So long as both teams finish in the same neighborhood, the head-to-head factor would be give MSU a significant edge.

So, we’ll focus on the Bulldogs and the Wolfpack. The teams have a couple of similar selling points in that they’ve done their best work on the road, with NCSU winning series at Georgia Tech and Virginia, while MSU has won at Florida, Vanderbilt and Louisiana State. The Wolfpack does have better top 50 (13-6 vs. MSU’s 13-10) and top 100 (21-12 vs. MSU’s 18-13) records. If the season ended today, the metrics would favor the Wolfpack, although MSU does have the single best series win on the board (at Florida).

However, there’s no getting around the fact that the Wolfpack’s remaining schedule is markedly tougher. NCSU has to travel to Clemson and Louisville and host North Carolina, all postseason-caliber teams. MSU, on the other hand, finishes with Missouri, at Auburn and at home against Arkansas, three of the bottom five teams in the SEC. Of course, NCSU could pass Louisville in the ACC’s pecking order if it wins that series, but if it doesn’t and form holds elsewhere, the Bulldogs look like the team with the stronger chance to break into the top eight.

• Oklahoma State has thrust itself back into the hosting race by beating TCU two weeks ago and sweeping Texas last weekend. In the process, OSU leapfrogged TCU both in the RPI and the Big 12 standings, with the Cowboys now at 12-6 in the league and No. 22 in the RPI, while TCU is 11-7 and 23rd. TCU has also lost each of its last two series, which happened to be its biggest tests in conference play against Texas Tech and OSU. That backwards momentum along with the other factors we mentioned led us to put OSU as the second regional host out of the Big 12.

OSU does have to walk a tighter rope to keep its RPI in shape, however, starting with a must-sweep series this weekend against No. 298 Prairie View A&M. The Cowboys then finish the season with series against Oklahoma and Kansas, neither of which is in the top 100. TCU doesn’t have any top 100 series left, either, but the fact it faces Penn State (No. 102) and Baylor on the road will be healthier for its RPI. Still, we’ll give the Cowboys the nod for now, but any slip ups could open the door for the Horned Frogs again.

• Our other change among the hosts is replacing Louisiana-Lafayette with Pac-12 co-leader Washington. The Cajuns are still strong in the RPI at No. 20, but they’ve failed to gain any ground in recent weeks on South Alabama in the Sun Belt race. ULL remains four games back with three weeks to go, and while they do still get to play USA head-to-head, that series is on the road. Failing to finish in first place would almost certainly doom their chances of hosting.

The other factor at play is, of course, the desire to place a regional somewhere in the West if at all possible. Washington’s RPI is down at No. 34, out of range to be a No. 1 seed if the season ended today, making them a likely landing spot for a traveling No. 1 seed UCSB should it come to that. But if the Huskies can finish strong, win the Pac-12 title and at least get into the mid-20s, they’d most likely get rewarded with a No. 1 seed and a host—their hosting also presents the chance to place a regional in an impressive new facility. The Huskies are 6-5 against the top 50, 15-9 against the top 100, and they also have marketable road series wins against Arizona State and California.

If the Pac-12’s other co-leader, RPI No. 120 Utah, wins the conference, then all bets would be off. But the Huskies’ remaining schedule isn’t too daunting—they travel to Southern California, host Washington State and Stanford and then visit Utah to end the season. Stanford is the only one of those three with a winning overall record.

• Sticking with the Pac-12, look out for Arizona State coming up on the outside. The Sun Devils’ RPI was in the 100s just three weeks ago, but they’ve won three straight series against Cal, Stanford and Mountain West conference leader New Mexico, with the latter two being sweeps. That’s vaulted the Sun Devils all the way to No. 57 in the RPI—still bubble territory to be sure, but they’re now 13-9 against the top 100 and 8-6 on the road, along with reaching the .500 mark in conference play at 9-9. They still have to play a road series at rival Arizona, but the Devils should be favored in their other three remaining weekends—home against Oregon, at UCLA and home against USC. The committee likes teams that finish strong, and the Sun Devils certainly look like they’re trending in the right direction, creating the chance for the Pac to be a five-bid conference.

• You don’t expect the RPI to be that volatile by this point in the season, but then you have Long Beach State’s gaining almost 30 spots in one week. The Dirtbags were No. 71 just a week ago, well outside at-large territory having just lost a series to a sub-.500 team in UC Riverside, which prompted us to drop them from the field. Today, the Gauchos are a solid No. 45 after sweeping Cal Poly last weekend. They’re back up to third place in the Big West and a solid 13-7 against the top 100. Other than a home series against Fullerton, the Dirtbags’ remaining schedule is very manageable, although their home series against No. 212 San Jose State in two weeks is a must-sweep. They’re back in the field though, returning the Big West to three-bid status.