Projected Field Of 64: March 23

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64
Gainesville, FL	Ann Arbor, MI
1. (1) Florida^*	1. Michigan^*
2. Michigan State	2. Alabama
3. Georgia Tech	3. Arizona
4. Quinnipiac*	4. Wright State*
College Station, TX	Los Angeles
1. (2) Texas A&M^	1. UCLA^
2. Oregon	2. Long Beach State*
3. Dallas Baptist*	3. Fresno State*
4. Cornell*	4. Sacramento State*
Corvallis, OR	Stillwater, OK
1. (3) Oregon State^*	1. Oklahoma State^
2. Louisiana-Lafayette*	2. Louisiana State
3. Texas Tech	3. Brigham Young*
4. Bryant*	4. Kent State*
Coral Gables, FL	Houston
1. (4) Miami^*	1. Houston^*
2. Florida Atlantic*	2. Arkansas
3. Southern California	3. Southeastern Louisiana*
4. Florida A&M*	4. Oral Roberts*
Fort Worth, TX	Tallahassee, FL
1. (5) Texas Christian^*	1. Florida State^
2. UC Santa Barbara	2. South Carolina
3. Rice	3. Maryland
4. Navy*	4. Florida Gulf Coast*
Chapel Hill, NC	Nashville
1. (6) North Carolina^	1. Vanderbilt^
2. Tulane	2. Clemson
3. Missouri State	3. East Carolina
4. Stony Brook*	4. Mercer*
Oxford, MS	Charlottesville, VA
1. (7) Mississippi^	1. Virginia^
2. California	2. Kentucky
3. Southern Mississippi	3. Coastal Carolina*
4. Alabama State*	4. Virginia Commonwealth*
Louisville, KY	Starkville, MS
1. (8) Louisville^	1. Mississippi State^
2. College of Charleston*	2. North Carolina State
3. Cal State Fullerton	3. South Alabama
4. Southeast Missouri State*	4. Creighton*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Bids By Conference

10: SEC
8: ACC
6: Pac-12
3: American, Big 12, Big Ten, Big West, Conference USA
2: Missouri Valley, Sun Belt
1: A-Sun, A-10, America East, Big East, Big South, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, WAC, WCC

New At-Large Bid: South Alabama
Dropping Out: UNC Wilmington
On The Radar: Old Dominion, Tennessee, UC Irvine, Stanford, West Virginia, Arizona State, Washington, Troy, Boston College

• This week sees our first real shuffling of the national seeds, with North Carolina and Mississippi entering the top eight and California and Vanderbilt dropping out. The 17-2 Tar Heels and 20-2 Rebels have been two of the nation’s hottest starters and already boast marquee series wins—UNC over UCLA and Oklahoma State; Ole Miss over Louisville—to go with top-five RPIs on WarrenNolan.com. Both will still face plenty of challenges in conference play, but their resumes to this point are as impressive as any you’ll find.

Louisville hangs onto our last national seed despite taking its second series loss in five weeks last weekend at Miami. We still believe in the Cardinals’ talented core of players that won the ACC regular-season title a year ago, and they’ll get a chance to prove themselves again this weekend when Virginia comes to town, not to mention the fact they’re still 16-4 and No. 6 on WarrenNolan. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, drops out after its home series loss to Mississippi State. While we don’t doubt the Commodores’ talent level either, they’re left out because outside of South Carolina’s coming to Nashville, all their other most challenging SEC series—LSU, Florida and Texas A&M—are on the road.

We’re not excited about having six of the eight national seeds taken up by ACC and SEC teams, and granted it’s still fairly early, but there’s shaping up to be a dearth of national seed contenders elsewhere. Oregon State and TCU are clear favorites to get into the top eight, but with Cal and Oregon sliding, there don’t appear to be many more viable candidates from the Midwest or West, unless Oklahoma State or UCLA, Nos. 14 and 16 on WarrenNolan, respectively, can elbow their way back into the picture. UC Santa Barbara has the No. 7 RPI for now, but it’d be very ambitious to expect the retooled Gauchos to hang around the national seed race.

• At this pace, Clemson and South Carolina will force their way into the hosting picture before long, but again we’ve got a crowded field of ACC and SEC teams jockeying for spots here. Simply put, they can’t all host. For this week, we kept the same hosts out of the ACC—the three national seeds plus Virginia and Florida State—while in the SEC, it came down to Mississippi State and LSU for the final spot along with the national seeds and Vanderbilt. We gave the nod to the Bulldogs, owing to the fact they just won a marquee series at Vandy while LSU lost at home to Alabama, and also the fact MSU is 10 spots ahead in the WarrenNolan RPI—28 vs. 38. However, the Bulldogs have to travel to Baton Rouge for the teams’ series in April, which could certainly swing things back LSU’s way.

Houston gets back among the hosts, given how well it’s playing now that Seth Romero is back in its rotation and the fact its road series win at Alabama looks even better this week. Oklahoma State also gets back in as a second host out of the Big 12. The Cowboys have pulled out of their 2-5 start by winning 11 of their last 13, including a quality series win against Michigan last weekend. We chose to keep Michigan as a host, albeit with much hesitation. The Wolverines have little margin for error after losing that series to OSU dropped their RPI to 44, but if they can dominate the Big Ten, the committee would likely be forgiving on an iffy RPI—remember, UCSB and Cal State Fullerton both hosted with RPIs in the 20s last year. The fact the Wolverines would offer some geographic diversity among the hosts can only help them, too.

• South Alabama is our only new at-large this week, replacing UNC Wilmington and making the Sun Belt a two-bid league. The Jaguars have opened 15-5, most notably including a win at Georgia and two wins against Southern Mississippi, to build the No. 12 RPI on WarrenNolan. Their RPI won’t stay that lofty, but the Sun Belt looks to have enough teams playing well—namely Texas State and Troy, along with USA and preseason favorite Louisiana-Lafayette—to make itself a multi-bid league again, something it hasn’t been since 2013, when it sent a landmark four teams to regionals.

The Seahawks dropped to No. 98 in the RPI after getting swept at North Florida two weeks ago and then playing a home series against 4-12 Iona, even though they swept it. Unfortunately for UNCW, the CAA won’t provide many opportunities at quality wins outside of its series with College of Charleston, which may well be a must win—that’s the only series the Seahawks have left with a team currently in the top 100. They’ll also have to make some hay in midweek games against teams like UNC and East Carolina.

• Can the West Coast Conference snag multiple bids? We installed 18-2 Brigham Young as the auto bid winner this week, replacing San Diego, which sits 12-10 and lost its league-opening series to Saint Mary’s. But we know the Toreros have talent, and five of the league’s teams reside inside the top 100 of the RPI through five weeks. Gonzaga sits the highest at No. 24, boosted by a win at Arkansas and a series at TCU where it lost two of three. But if the Bulldogs—9-6 in road/neutral games—came keep up their play in the WCC after taking two of three from Pepperdine last weekend, they could stick in the at-large race along with BYU and possibly USD.

The linchpin to all this figures to be BYU’s credentials as an at-large. The Cougars’ best accomplishments to date are winning three of four at Samford and sweeping at Kansas, along with a midweek win at rival Utah. Their No. 35 RPI has thus far weathered home series against non-top 200 teams Niagara and Pacific, and the good news for the Cougars in the WCC race is both Gonzaga and USD have to come to Provo. BYU’s best non-conference weekend is also still ahead of it—Big East favorite Creighton comes to town in late April. BYU’s schedule so far ranks No. 208 on WarrenNolan. Less than imposing, certainly, but the Cougars have done what you need to do against that type of schedule: dominate. They’re not only 18-2, they have the second best scoring margin in the country at plus-5.8 runs per game, trailing only Vanderbilt’s plus-5.9.