Projected Field Of 64: March 16

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64
Gainesville, FL	Lafayette, LA
1. (1) Florida^*	1. Louisiana-Lafayette^*
2. East Carolina	2. Houston*
3. Clemson	3. Georgia Tech
4. Alabama State*	4. Oral Roberts*
College Station, TX	Los Angeles
1. (2) Texas A&M^	1. UCLA^
2. Dallas Baptist*	2. Long Beach State
3. Southern Mississippi	3. Missouri State
4. Quinnipiac*	4. Sacramento State*
Corvallis, OR	Charlottesville, VA
1. (3) Oregon State^*	1. Virginia^
2. Alabama	2. Oregon
3. UC Santa Barbara	3. Coastal Carolina*
4. Southeast Missouri State*	4. Richmond*
Louisville, KY	Ann Arbor, MI
1. (4) Louisville^*	1. Michigan^*
2. Tulane	2. Arkansas
3. South Carolina	3. Southern California
4. Penn*	4. Wright State*
Nashville	Tallahassee, FL
1. (5) Vanderbilt^	1. Florida State^
2. Michigan State	2. Oklahoma State
3. Kent State*	3. Maryland
4. Navy*	4. Florida Gulf Coast*
Coral Gables, FL	Oxford, MS
1. (6) Miami^	1. Mississippi^
2. Florida Atlantic*	2. North Carolina State
3. Southeastern Louisiana*	3. Texas Tech
4. Florida A&M*	4. Creighton*
Fort Worth, TX	Baton Rouge, LA
1. (7) Texas Christian^*	1. Louisiana State^
2. Kentucky	2. College of Charleston*
3. Rice	3. Arizona
4. Bryant*	4. Mercer*
Berkeley, CA	Chapel Hill, NC
1. (8) California^	1. North Carolina^
2. Cal State Fullerton*	2. Mississippi State
3. Fresno State*	3. UNC Wilmington
4. San Diego*	4. Stony Brook*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Bids By Conference
10: SEC
8: ACC
6: Pac-12
3: American, Big 12, Conference USA, Big Ten, Big West
2: Colonial, Missouri Valley
1: A-Sun, A-10, America East, Big South, Big East, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC, West Coast

New At-Large Bids: Arizona, Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara
Dropping Out: UC Irvine, South Florida, Washington

On The Radar: Tennessee, West Virginia, South Alabama, Arizona State, New Orleans, Old Dominion, Boston College, Stanford, Brigham Young

Field Of 64 Thoughts

• Oregon drops from the national seed ranks after its disastrous showing against Mississippi State last weekend. Replacing them came down to three teams—California, Mississippi and North Carolina. We chose to go with Cal. UNC and Ole Miss would be justifiable based on their quality series wins and the fact they’re Nos. 1 and 3, respectively, in the RPI on WarrenNolan.com. But we’re not ready to commit to four SEC teams among the national seeds, and we felt UNC has a more challenging conference schedule ahead than Cal. The Tar Heels have to play Miami, Virginia and North Carolina State all on the road, while Cal has its two toughest Pac-12 opponents, Oregon State and UCLA, both coming to Berkeley.

The Bears do need to hope that Texas, which they swept on the road in Week 3, turns out to be a contender in the Big 12 and thus boost their non-conference resume in comparison to UNC, which owns series wins against UCLA and Oklahoma State, and Ole Miss, with its series win against Louisville. Given that UCLA will be a common opponent for UNC and Cal, that’s another series that takes on a little extra importance for the Bears since the Tar Heels beat the Bruins in Los Angeles.

• Much as we didn’t feel comfortable giving the SEC a fourth national seed, we’re not ready to give it a sixth regional host, hence Mississippi State’s exclusion. Giving one conference five hosts is on the high end of the spectrum, let alone six. We chose to bring back Michigan as a host instead. The Wolverines are off to an 11-3 start that includes a road win against Cal, and they have another chance to boost their resume this weekend with a series at Oklahoma State. Houston was the other team in the running, but its 0-3 showing in the Shriners Hospitals for Children College Classic—granted it was without No. 2 starter Seth Romero—gives us enough hesitation to go with Michigan.

The Cougars do have a selling point for their non-conference resume after their series win at Alabama. However, their conference slate in the American looks more rugged than Michigan’s in the Big Ten. If both teams end up with regular-season titles and comparable RPIs—and if Michigan loses to Oklahoma State—Houston would likely have the edge because of the strength of its league, but for now we’ll go with the team with the more manageable path.

• Busy week on the West Coast with Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara and Arizona entering the at-large field, while UC Irvine and Washington drop out (along with South Florida). The Dirtbags have built a quality non-conference resume already, with series wins against Arizona State (home), Nebraska (home) and Oklahoma (road), along with notable midweek wins against UCLA and Fresno State. UCSB also has a midweek win over UCLA along with winning the Tony Gwynn Classic a couple weeks ago, where it beat Kentucky, Bryant and San Diego. The Gauchos can build a truly unassailable non-conference resume as they have, count ‘em, three more quality weekend series ahead—Connecticut, USC and a cross-country trip to College of Charleston.

Arizona checks in at No. 15 in the WarrenNolan.com RPI, having opened the year with a 12-4 record and doing it against the No. 27 strength-of-schedule. That includes a series win at Rice, a 2-1 showing at the Gwynn Classic, a midweek win over Cal State Fullerton and a weekend sweep of Sacramento State—a team that went 3-3 against SEC foes Auburn and LSU. We also considered in-state rival Arizona State, but the three teams ASU has won weekend series against—Xavier, Eastern Michigan and UC Davis—all have losing records. The Sun Devils lost their series to the only regional-caliber team they’ve played on a weekend, Long Beach.

On the flip side, South Florida has started just 10-7 and sits No. 158 on WarrenNolan, including midweek losses to Florida Gulf Coast, Bethune-Cookman and Jacksonville. The Bulls can make a statement this weekend though when they host Michigan State for a series. UC Irvine is 10-6, but the fact it could only split a four-game series with San Jose State, likely one of the bottom teams in the WAC, in Week 1 figures to be an RPI anchor. They also lost their best series so far, at Tennessee, last weekend, getting blown out in both of their losses. Washington hasn’t lost a series yet but is just 8-5 against the No. 235 strength-of-schedule. The Huskies will get a chance to prove themselves against tougher competition this weekend when they open Pac-12 play at home against Arizona.