Power Prospect Standouts By Age

Age	90%EV
17	96.5
18	98.1
19	99.1
20	100
21	101.3
22	101.5
23	102.1

You can see from ages 17 to 21 there is consistently a jump on 1 mph or greater from year to year. This is the period where the most power development happens. The largest jump is between 19 and 21, where hitters add more than 2 mph on average onto their 90th percentile exit velocity. 

Now that we have a better understanding of how power develops on a scale, let’s look at the 90th percentile leaders for each age group between 17 and 21. There’s a minimum in-zone contact rate minimum filter of 20% to eliminate power hitters struggling to consistently get into power.

All players included below have a minimum of 150 plate appearances. 

Age 17 Leaders – 96.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity average. 

PLAYER	ORG	90%EV
Robert Calaz	COL	107.2
Sebastian Walcott	TEX	106.4
Angel Guzman	SF	102.7
Luis Merejo	CLE	102.1
Alfredo Alcantara	CIN	101.9
Ethan Salas	SD	101.8
Elias Medina	LAD	101.6
Alfonzo Martinez	TB	101.4
Mario Baez	ATL	100.9
Yophery Rodriguez	MIL	100.7

• When laid out on against their age-based peers, it’s clear to see how outlier both Robert Calaz and Sebastian Walcott’s power is. This group features almost exclusively 2023 international signees. 
• It’s likely that the sample size is boosting Calaz and Walcott. Each had around 200 plate appearances, and it’s likely in over 400-500 plate appearances those numbers would come down, but likely only a few mph. 
• Standout performers Ethan Salas and Yophery Rodriguez make the leaderboard showing they have above-average present raw power, hitting at more slugging ability to come. 

Age 18 Leaders – 98.1 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity average. 

PLAYER	ORG	90%EV
Cam Collier	CIN	105.6
Waner Luciano	HOU	104
Echedry Vargas	TEX	103.9
Jeral Perez	LAD	103.7
Jesus Baez	NYM	103.5
Josue Briceno	DET	103.3
Jose Rodriguez	MIN	103.1
Jancel Villarroel	HOU	102.8
Ricardo Cabrera	CIN	102.6
Randy De Jesus	LAA	102.6

• Cam Collier sticks out for not only his well above-average 90th percentile exit velocity, but he’s also the only 18-year-old in this sample with over 250 plate appearances. Collier averaged 105.6 mph on his top 10% of contact over a whopping 462 at-bats. Despite excellent EV data, Collier’s expected production falls short due to his struggles to elevate. 
• Waner Luciano and Echedry Vargas are both strong performers from the domestic complex leagues this year, who should get an opportunity to show off their above-average raw power for their age in 2024 when they debut in full season. Both Luciano and Vargas have shown the ability to elevate on hard contact. 

Age 19 Leaders – 99.1 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity average. 

PLAYER	ORG	90%EV
Jeffry Rosa	NYM	105.9
Luke Adams	MIL	105.9
Jackson Chourio	MIL	105.8
Roman Anthony	BOS	105.3
Moises Ballesteros	CHC	104.9
Sal Stewart	CIN	103.3
Justin Crawford	PHI	103.1
Rayne Doncon	LAD	102.8
Anderson De Los Santos	BAL	102.8

• This showcases a few of the top prospects in the game. Jackson Chourio has shown prodigious power since he debuted stateside, and the underlying exit velocity data backs that. Not only does Chourio hit the ball much harder than the average 19-year-old, but he also shows an uncanny ability to elevate on his best contact. 
• Luke Adams continues to be one of the more underrated hitters in the minors based on the data. If you can get over the aesthetics of his swing, you’ll see he has a a strong combination of average bat-to-ball skills, strong approach and plus raw power. 
• Justin Crawford’s inclusion might come as a surprise, but hitting the ball hard isn’t an issue. Elevating on hard contact very much is a problem. Crawford falls into the grouping of hitters that have present strength but struggle to get the ball in the air. 

Age 20 Leaders – 100 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity average. 

PLAYER	ORG	90%EV
Junior Caminero	TB	110.4
Ryan Clifford	HOU	107.1
Jasson Dominguez	NYY	105.7
Jeferson Quero	MIL	105.2
Marcelo Mayer	BOS	105.1
Blaze Jordan	BOS	104.1
Derwin Laya	SF	103.9
Won-Bin Cho	STL	103.7
Hedbert Perez	MIL	103.6

• This should put Junior Caminero’s power into perspective. Of all the players included within these age-based leaderboards Caminero is the only player to average 110 mph or higher on his top 10% of batted balls. With above-average bat-to-ball skills, Caminero combines outlier power with the ability to get to it. 
• Some of the more notable power hitters in the minors show up on the age-20 list. Ryan Clifford, Jasson Dominguez, Marcelo Mayer and Blaze Jordan are all well-known players with potential for plus power or better at peak. 
• Jeferson Quero’s inclusion might surprise some, but the Brewers catching prospect packs a punch. He’s a strong contact hitter with plus raw power. It’s simply a matter of refining his, at times, overzealous approach to get to his already burgeoning power. 

Age 21 Leaders – 101.3 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity average. 

PLAYER	ORG	90%EV
Tyler Soderstrom	OAK	107.6
Coby Mayo	BAL	107.2
Joe Vetrano	LAD	106.8
Matt Shaw	CHC	106.8
Noelvi Marte	CIN	106.8
Wyatt Langford	TEX	106.8
Yohendrick Pinango	CHC	106.6
Orelvis Martinez	TOR	105.4
Chase DeLauter	CLE	104.7
Colson Montgomery	CWS	104.7

• When we get to age 21, the cream begins to rise to the top. There are eight Top 100 Prospects included in the age-21 leaderboard. Only Joe Vetrano and Yohendrick Pinango rank outside the top prospects in the game.
• This should be reason for optimism with Tyler Soderstrom, who’s seen his prospect status falter in recent years. He still shows potential for plus-plus power. It’s simply a matter of refining his plates skills, which is easier said than done. 
• Matt Shaw and Wyatt Langford skyrocketed to the top of these leaderboards post-draft. The one asterisk is their total plate appearance number, which was lower than the others included in this list.