Pitchers Set Collegiate National Team Pace

USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team often serves as a preview of the next draft year, indicating strengths and weaknesses of the class.

College National Team Top Prospects

1. Alex Faedo, rhp, Florida

2. J.B. Bukauskas, rhp, North Carolina

3. Brendan McKay, 1b/lhp, Louisville

4. Jeren Kendall, of, Vanderbilt

5. Kyle Wright, rhp, Vanderbilt

6. Alex Lange, rhp, Louisiana State

7. Tanner Houck, rhp, Missouri

8. Dalton Guthrie, ss, Florida

9. Keston Hiura, 2b, UC Irvine

10. Seth Beer, of, Clemson

11. Evan Skoug, c, Texas Christian

12. David Peterson, lhp, Oregon

13. T.J. Friedl, of, Nevada (SIGNED: Reds)

14. Taylor Walls, ss/2b, Florida State

15. Jake Burger, 3b, Missouri State

16. Ricky Tyler Thomas, lhp, Fresno State

17. K.J. Harrison, 1b/of/c, Oregon State

18. Tyler Johnson, rhp, South Carolina

19. Evan White, of/1b, Kentucky

20. Mike Rivera, c, Florida

It also plays games that matter, with the bulk of this year’s schedule coming overseas. After a week of trials in Southern California, 24 of Americas top college players played three series on the road, one in Taiwan, one in Japan and the last one in Cuba, where the U.S. won for the first time.

Head coach George Horton (Oregon) was joined by a coaching staff that included two of his former players (Loyola Marymount coach Jason Gil and Nebraska pitching coach Ted Silva) as well as Dave Snow, who coached with and against Horton for most of two decades before moving into professional baseball as an evaluator and coach.

They had a roster that, like the overall college class, was stronger on the mound and defensively than it was at the plate. Aside from hitting approaches that need to improve, as is the case for many top amateur prospects, the CNT hitters had tough travel to Taiwan, where they faced an older club, plus a Japanese all-star team that featured five likely first-round picks in the Nippon Professional Baseball draft for 2017.

But the club’s starting pitching—eight of them used in tandems—allowed it to remain competitive in every game, with Louisville lefthander/first baseman Brendan McKay emerging as the top performer as a key starter and the team’s leading hitter. Team USA primarily invited rising juniors to trials, with the exception of outfielder Seth Beer and pitchers Tim Cate, a lefty, and Cole Sands, a righty, all of whom are in the 2018 draft class.

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1. Alex Faedo, rhp, Florida. | | Faedo checks a lot of boxes for high picks in the draft, including potential No. 1 overall picks. At 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, he’s got prototypical pitchers size with a good body that isn’t close to being a finished product. He has thrived in two seasons for the Gators (19-4, 3.20, 192/37 SO/BB ratio in 166 IP), and he pitched well for Team USA, going 3-0, 0.56 with 21 strikeouts and three walks in 16 innings.

He did it by locating his fastball down and away well, working almost exclusively away from hitters with a fastball that sat at 93 mph and touched higher. He has tremendous confidence in his best pitch, an 83-85 mph slider with late tilt that earns grades ranging from 65 to 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. Faedo throws strikes with both pitches, and he flashed an average changeup this summer, throwing it with good arm speed and solid life.

He’s good enough to star for Florida, but top draft picks get picked apart, and Faedo has three key areas he must improve. First, his fastball’s life, as it tends to be straight; second, his unwillingness to pitch inside (he often shook off his catcher when a fastball in was called, according to club sources); and third, the changeup, which he doesn’t use enough.

2. J.B. Bukauskas, rhp, North Carolina. | | Bukauskas skipped his senior year of high school to enroll early at North Carolina and was the third-youngest player on the roster. He also made the most improvement this summer and was Team USA’s top performer, giving up only one unearned run in 21 2/3 innings. He struck out 21, walked three and limited hitters to a .109 average. At 6-foot, 196 pounds, Bukauskas has a tremendously fast arm. He lacks an ideal pitcher’s body and has some effort to his delivery, but he had the best three-pitch mix on the team and best consistent approach between starts and on the mound.

In high school, Bukauskas’ changeup was ahead of his slider, but as a sophomore, he developed a premium slider that allowed him to rank third in the country with 12.75 strikeouts per nine innings. This summer, he got back in touch with his changeup, to the point where he shook from the slider to the changeup in a five-inning, season-ending start against Cuba. Bukauskas still hits 97 mph with his fastball, which typically sits 92-94, but it has more life at lower registers. He lacks Faedo’s body, but Bukauskas had the best combination of pitchability, swing-and-miss stuff and ability to use them of anyone on Team USA’s staff, earning comparisons to Sonny Gray and former Florida ace Logan Shore, though with much more velocity than Shore.

3. Brendan McKay, 1b/lhp, Louisville. | | McKay really requires two reports, as he’s a legitimate prospect as both a hitter and pitcher, with the industry leaning pitcher but fairly split. The 2015 Freshman of the Year was the best pure hitter on the CNT, with plus raw power that translates more to doubles to the gap than homers due to a flat bat path. At 6-foot-2, 212 pounds, McKay generates power with strength rather than bat speed, and his poor running speed limits him to first base, where his defense needs polish. However, his pure bat-to-ball skills are becoming increasingly hard to find, so teams will be bearing down on his bat this spring.

On the mound, McKay pitches off a plus fastball that has good velocity, sitting at 91-92 mph, and excellent angle and location. Few college pitchers pitch inside to opposite-side hitters as confidently and consistently as McKay, whose plus fastball command and deceptive, cross-body delivery make him an uncomfortable at-bat for righthanded hitters. His curveball earns above-average to plus grades as well.

As a two-way player, McKay has rough edges that would require polish once he focuses on one discipline. His defense and baserunning are raw as a position player, and he hasn’t needed his changeup much as an amateur pitcher. His competitiveness and quiet, confident demeanor gives scouts and coaches confidence he can be a big leaguer in either role.

4. Jeren Kendall, of, Vanderbilt. | | Kendall had more upside than any position player on Team USA and was the club’s best athlete by a fairly wide margin. The 6-foot, 190-pounder is a plus runner who played well defensively in center field after having played a corner for two years at Vanderbilt in deference to 2016 second-rounder Bryan Reynolds. He also has arm strength and plus speed to go with above-average raw power thanks to fast hands and good bat speed.

Kendall would rank higher if scouts had more confidence in his bat-to-ball skills. He struck out 24 times in 69 at-bats, alarming both for the sheer numbers but also for how he did it. Kendall struggled to adopt a two-strike approach, remaining pull-oriented even when down in the count, and chased a lot of breaking balls out of the strike zone, as well as fastballs up. Two scouts likened his upside to that of Jacoby Ellsbury.

5. Kyle Wright, rhp, Vanderbilt. | | The next Vanderbilt ace—it’s become a lot to live up to, but Wright has the ingredients to fit the bill. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder flashed a 90-94 mph fastball but tired over the course of the summer, often pitching at 88-91 mph. Scouts and CNT officials chalked it up to workload, as Wright made 16 starts for the Commodores in the spring and surpassed 100 innings for the first time including his CNT workload.

He nevertheless pitched well for Team USA, showing scouts the best combination of good size for a starter and a clean arm action. He used all three pitches and had cutting and sinking action to his fastball, which he located well and can use to both sides of the plate. His curveball flashed plus in the upper 70s, and he commanded it, showing the ability to land it for strikes or bury it. His changeup needs repetitions to be more than a batting-practice fastball but also flashed average.

6. Alex Lange, rhp, Louisiana State. | | Lange followed a boffo freshman season for LSU with a strong, if less spectacular, sophomore year. At times, the 6-foot-3, 201-pounder is a strikeout machine, and he has ranked in the top 10 in Division I in strikeouts in each of his first two seasons.

This summer, his goal was to gain better pitch efficiency, which starts with fastball command. That came and went for Lange, who had his worst outing washed out of his stats by rain in Taiwan. When he muscles up and overthrows, both his fastball and plus curve, which earns 70 grades when he doesn’t force it, miss out of the zone or catch the fat part of the plate.

Most encouragingly, Lange threw much better in Japan and Cuba, trusting his changeup and curveball and throwing more low-90s fastball strikes to both sides of the plate as he essentially pitched to contact with swing-and-miss stuff. Lange needed just 36 pitches to toss four scoreless innings in Cuba, a sign he could develop the consistent pitchability and fastball command to remain a starter long-term. If not, his power breaking ball in the low 80s and mound intensity could make him an elite closer.

7. Tanner Houck, rhp, Missouri. Lean and long-armed, Houck aims to carry on the Missouri first-rounder tradition of the last decade that has produced big leaguers such as Max Scherzer, Aaron Crow and Kyle Gibson. He’s more Gibson than Scherzer as his fastball is a high-contact pitch, even in the mid-90s. Houck struck out just eight in a team-high 23 2/3 innings for the CNT but walked just five.

Houck competes well with a low-90s fastball that peaked at 95 this summer, but the pitch has heavy sink and earned 70 grades from scouts for its life. His slider gives him an average secondary pitch, though it’s more of a groundball pitch than a swing-and-miss offering at this time. Houck told Team USA coaches he threw single-digit changeups in the spring and worked on the change this summer, but it remains a distant third pitch for now.

8. Dalton Guthrie, ss, Florida. The son of longtime big league lefty reliever Mark Guthrie, Dalton Guthrie has been a two-year starter for the Gators and was the CNT’s top defensive player. As one crosschecker put it, his simple goodness made him stand out more than tools. He reads hitters’ swings and excels at positioning himself to make every play look routine, and he makes the routine play consistently, earning above-average grades for his arm strength, hands and range at shortstop.

Guthrie runs average if not a tick above as well, giving him a chance to hit for average. His bat lacks power or impact potential, so he’ll have to make more contact and draw more walks than he did this summer to be more than a bottom-of-the-lineup hitter.

9. Keston Hiura, 2b, UC Irvine. Hiura suffered an elbow injury in April that limited him to DH the rest of the season at UC Irvine and again over the summer for Team USA. As a result, he started fewer than half of the team’s games. He still led the team with three homers, including a pinch-hit game-winner in the fifth and final game in Cuba that proved to be the series-winner for Team USA.

A listed 6-foot, 188-pounder, Hiura has played third base, center field and second base in his college career and will have to prove to scouts he can play second base in the spring. That’s where he profiles best defensively, and he has work to do. He’s an average runner who could move back to the outfield, though that would put more pressure on his bat as he likely fits better in left field than center.

He ranks highly here because he may be the best pure hitter with power in the college class for 2017, with a strong track record that includes leading California preps in home runs in 2014. He has plus bat speed in his buggy-whip swing, takes aggressive swings early in the count and still shortens up and uses the whole field with two strikes. He had a better feel for lofting the ball than any American hitter this summer and projects as a plus hitter with plus power. He’s a similar player to the Yankees’ Rob Refnsyder, but with the loft power to hit 20-25 homers annually.

10. Seth Beer, of, Clemson. | | The Freshman of the Year in the spring, Beer ranks here based almost exclusively on what he did for Clemson, because he fought it for the national team. A lefthanded hitter with plate discipline and power, Beer struggled to adjust to wood bats and had just two extra-base hits in 45 summer at-bats.

Beer may have been tired after a long season, as he showed plus raw power in batting practice and controls the strike zone well. His swing got long and he lost confidence as his struggles continued at the plate. Scouts were more concerned about his poor running gait and below-average speed, which made him struggle to cover ground in big league outfields in Anaheim and Los Angeles. While he has above-average arm strength and accuracy for right field, his range and routes will have to improve for him to avoid a move to left field or first base.

11. Evan Skoug, c, Texas Christian. Ranked 96th on the BA 500 out of an Illinois high school in 2014, Skoug has started for two years for TCU and wound up earning the bulk of the starts for the CNT behind the plate. He is a bat-first catcher with a lefthanded swing and squat 5-foot-11, 200-pound frame.

A below-average defender currently, Skoug will need to work on his strength and flexibility to maintain his defensive home. Hell have to sit down in his squat and receive low pitches better. His receiving and blocking have improved, particularly his receiving, in his two years in college. His accuracy and fairly quick transfer help his fringe-average arm play up a bit.

Skoug’s bat is ahead of his glove, as his short arms and good hand-eye coordination help him make consistent hard contact. His power is mostly to the gaps but he also has learned to loft the ball. He has good rhythm and timing and has some similarities to 2016 first-rounder Matt Thaiss of Virginia, though his bat isn’t quite at Thaiss’ level.

12. David Peterson, lhp, Oregon. | | After Brendan McKay, the national team struggled to find a consistent lefthanded pitcher with power stuff. Peterson was supposed to be that guy, pitching for his own college coach at Oregon, George Horton. However, Peterson continued the same trends he has had in two years of college, flashing the premium stuff he has had since his prep days in Colorado but failing to consistently put it all together.

At 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, Peterson has long levers and is still fairly loose. He has excellent sink and run on his two-seamer in the 88-92 mph range and bumps 94-95 with his four-seamer at his best, though he didn’t do that this summer. He’s unable to repeat his release point and consistently find his balance point in his delivery, causing his command to suffer. He has some feel for a changeup and flashes average breaking stuff with an ability to spin the ball.

But Peterson is more prospect than performer at this stage. Oregon needs him to make the next step in the spring, and scouts want to see the same thing.

13. T.J. Friedl, of, Nevada (SIGNED: Reds). The story of the summer for the national team was Friedl’s emergence and subsequent signing for $732,500 with the Reds as a nondrafted free agent. Friedl did it with a slashing offensive style, 70 speed on the 20-80 scale, strong range and solid arm strength in left field (deferring to center fielder Jeren Kendall defensively) that should play in center field as a pro.

The key for Friedl as a pro will be his bat. Some scouts thought he garnered more attention for his high-energy play and effort, which stood out in contrast to some of the approaches of his more laid-back teammates, than for his hitting. Scouts who see Friedl as a fourth outfielder doubt the impact of his bat, while others believe his gap-to-gap approach and leadoff skills will make him an everyday player.

14. Taylor Walls, ss/2b, Florida State. A first-team All-American at shortstop in the spring, Walls played some shortstop but mostly second base for the national team and carried over his best skill, namely his on-base ability. He’s ranked in the top 10 in the nation in walks two years in a row, and his 14 walks this summer doubled the next-best CNT total.

Wall’s average arm strength and range suit him better for second base, according to scouts who saw him this summer, but he’s capable of at least being a backup at short as a pro thanks to soft hands and reliability on the routine play. A switch-hitter, he lacks power offensively and stays within himself, making consistent contact, using above-average speed (4.1 seconds to first base from the left side) and a line-drive swing that allowed him to use the whole field.

15. Jake Burger, 3b, Missouri State. | | Second on the team in strikeouts to Jeren Kendall, Burger took a while to adjust to wood bats, and by the time he started to the summer was over. At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, he’s just a fair athlete who may have to move to first base if he doesn’t improve defensively. Burger made the routine play and has above-average arm strength but has modest range.

However, scouts saw stiffness to his game, both at the plate and in the field. He has a strength-oriented swing with an arm bar and had trouble catching up to good velocity with wood. Several scouts also weren’t fans of his pre-swing movement in the box and lack of bat control. Burger could fit the third-base profile but has work to do to get there.

16. Ricky Tyler Thomas, lhp, Fresno State. | | Thomas was the CNT’s most consistent lefthander other than Brendan McKay, and that consistency earned him innings out of the bullpen. He is slight of build at 6-foot-1, 175 pounds and will have to show he can maintain his stuff over a full pro season, though he went a long way in doing that with 104 innings in the spring for Fresno State and 19 more for the CNT.

Thomas has excellent fastball command of his 87-90 mph fastball that touches 91. He uses it to set up his go-to pitch, a plus-plus changeup he sells with excellent arm speed. His fastball was good enough, thanks to its location and life, for him to get soft contact with it even when hitters were looking for it.

Thomas’ competitiveness gives him a chance to start as well. His fringy breaking ball and lack of physical projection are scouts’ biggest concerns going forward.

17. K.J. Harrison, 1b/of/c, Oregon State. | | Harrison’s game has leveled off since he ranked No. 149 on the BA 500 out of a Hawaii high school, and he struggled significantly this summer. Harrison caught some bullpens for the CNT but has been exclusively a first baseman at Oregon State, mixing in some corner outfield this summer. He did catch part of one game for Wareham in the Cape Cod League prior to reporting to Team USA, but otherwise he’s become a corner player defensively.

That puts pressure on Harrison’s bat, and he didn’t respond to it this year, with several scouts calling him a disappointment. His swing path has lengthened since high school, as he wraps the barrel of the bat behind his head and is longer to the ball. Harrison hit in the Cape and with Oregon State the last two seasons but didn’t show that with Team USA, presenting scouts with a mixed bag. Some still believe in his raw power and hitting ability, but he’ll have to prove it to top evaluators in the spring.

18. Tyler Johnson, rhp, South Carolina. Johnson wound up being the CNT’s closer and most effective reliever, though he got hit around on several occasions this summer. He was the hardest thrower in the U.S. bullpen, sitting 93-94 mph and hitting 96. He pitched with confidence in his fastball and trusts the pitch, getting swings-and-misses in fastball counts and reminding one evaluator of Daniel Bard.

Johnson used a slider that was consistently average and at times electric and a true plus pitch. However, he lacked consistency with the pitch in its power and shape, as well as his ability to control it. He rarely showed feel for his changeup, often bouncing it.

At 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, Johnson’s lean and loose and could give starting a try for South Carolina in the spring, though the Gamecocks have a crowded rotation. He showed some aptitude and athleticism, which give scouts some hope that he could make the transition to the rotation in the future.

19. Evan White, 1b/of, Kentucky. At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, White had one of the better bodies on the national team and was an asset defensively at first base. He’s an above-average runner who also got some time in the outfield, and pro scouts want to see more of that for White going forward, as he has yet to hit enough to profile at first.

White bats righthanded and throws lefthanded, and has some baseball savvy and athleticism. His longer swing took time to adjust to wood, and he showed little pop this summer from his setup. He’s in and out of the strike zone too quickly with his swing and will need to get stronger in addition to his swing adjustments to have the power to fit a corner profile.

20. Mike Rivera, c, Florida. | | In two years at Florida, Rivera has shared catching duties with J.J. Schwarz, who is a better prospect but a lesser defender. Rivera’s energy and leadership earned him a CNT spot this summer while Schwarz was on the team last summer. Rivera, a veteran of the 18U national team from his prep days, is a glove-first catcher and struggled offensively, going just 2-for-22 with Team USA.

He’s a front-foot hitter who has some raw power in his 5-foot-10, 200-pound frame and will have to adjust to get to it more often. Defensively, he does everything scouts want to see out of a catcher in terms of an above-average arm and sound receiving and blocking skills. His intangibles fit the requirements of the position. If his offense comes together, he could be a Carlos Ruiz-type of undersized catcher.