Performance Analysis For 40-Man Roster Additions

More than two-thirds of the 130-odd players added to 40-man rosters this November centered their seasons at either Double-A or Triple-A. This makes sense. Teams do not want to risk losing these near big league-ready prospects to either minor league free agency or the Rule 5 draft, so they add them to 40-man rosters to prevent such an outcome.

The majority of the other one-third of players—the ones who played at Class A this season—signed as international free agents, many at age 16, so they are only now turning 21 years old. A few of the others are pitchers who missed time along the way after having arm surgery.

Regardless of how players reach this point, they are now members of the MLB Players’ Association as 40-man roster players. They also receive an automatic invitation to big league spring training, not to mention a jump to a new tax bracket.

To get a better feel for what these players might bring to their organizations, we present here a performance overview for 2016. Players in each group are sorted by wins above average (WAA), which is park-adjusted and calculated by Baseball America. For batters, this calculation is based on weighted on-base average (wOBA) and for pitchers it is based on runs allowed per nine innings (R/9). Each player’s primary level for 2016 is listed under (Lvl). An asterisk (*) denotes lefthanded batter/pitcher, while a pound sign (#) signifies switch-hitter.

Park-adjusted OPS+ and ERA+ are similar to the familiar Baseball-Reference.com metrics.

Middle Infield & Catcher

• Secondary average (SecA) summarizes a batter’s contributions beyond batting average. It measures walks, extra bases and net stolen bases per at-bat and allows the reader to see at a glance whether a player supplements his batting average with walks, extra-base hits and/or stolen bases—or whether he’s an empty .280 hitter. As with batting average, a secondary average of .300 or greater is excellent.

• The major league batting average for non-pitchers from 2014 to 2016 was .257. The secondary average for that period was .251. The average strikeout rate was 20.1 percent.

No	Batter	Org	Pos	Lvl	PA	AVG	SecA	SO%	OPS+	WAA
1	Alvarez, Eli*	Cardinals	2b	LoA	499	.323	.323	19.2	176	4.5
2	Mejia, Francisco#	Indians	c	LoA	443	.342	.241	14.2	155	3.0
3	Rosario, Amed	Mets	ss	HiA	527	.324	.242	16.5	140	2.7
4	Adames, Willy	Rays	ss	AA	568	.274	.323	21.3	129	2.6
5	Caratini, Victor#	Cubs	c/1b	AA	480	.291	.248	16.7	130	2.0
6	Nido, Tomas	Mets	c	HiA	370	.320	.192	11.4	138	1.8
7	Higashioka, Kyle	Yankees	c	AA	416	.276	.332	17.5	143	1.8
8	Robinson, Drew*	Rangers	2b/3b	AAA	539	.257	.390	27.5	136	1.7
9	Leyba, Domingo#	D-backs	ss/2b	HiA	548	.296	.238	15.3	116	1.3
10	Vargas, Ildemaro	D-backs	ss/2b	AA	579	.305	.217	6.7	107	1.3
11	Barreto, Franklin	Athletics	ss/2b	AA	525	.284	.240	17.9	112	1.3
12	Garver, Mitch	Twins	c	AA	491	.270	.263	21.8	113	1.2
13	Urena, Richard#	Blue Jays	ss	HiA	563	.295	.197	14.7	119	1.2
14	Robertson, Daniel	Rays	ss/2b	AAA	511	.259	.232	19.6	103	0.8
15	Farmer, Kyle	Dodgers	c/3b	AA	315	.258	.251	14.3	111	0.5
16	Knapp, Andrew#	Phillies	c	AAA	443	.266	.216	24.2	103	0.4
17	Gallagher, Cam	Royals	c	AA	346	.259	.223	15.0	103	0.4
18	Valentin, Jesmuel#	Phillies	2b	AA	511	.269	.238	15.7	103	0.2
19	Valera, Breyvic#	Cardinals	2b/ss	AAA	449	.304	.175	8.9	108	0.2
20	Read, Raudy	Nationals	c	HIA	426	.262	.241	12.4	111	0.1
21	Mateo, Jorge	Yankees	ss/2b	HiA	507	.254	.241	21.3	102	0.1
22	Calixte, Orlando	Giants	ss	AAA	519	.274	.246	19.1	100	0.1
23	Riddle, J.T.*	Marlins	ss/2b	AA	486	.276	.178	16.7	102	0.0
24	Reinheimer, Jack	D-backs	ss	AAA	560	.288	.210	16.6	88	-0.1
25	Jimenez, A.J.	Blue Jays	c	AAA	248	.241	.193	13.3	90	-0.4
26	Sosa, Edmundo	Cardinals	ss	LoA	413	.270	.127	19.1	101	-0.5
27	Vielma, Engelb#	Twins	ss	AA	397	.265	.171	17.6	85	-0.5
28	Camargo, Johan#	Braves	2b/ss	AA	491	.267	.164	16.7	105	-0.7
29	Munoz, Yairo	Athletics	ss/2b	AA	414	.240	.183	18.4	82	-0.8
30	Nola, Austin	Marlins	ss	AAA	407	.261	.188	13.8	92	-1.1
31	Guerra, Javier*	Padres	ss	HiA	431	.202	.210	32.7	63	-2.3

• Who’s No. 1?: The Cardinals signed lefthanded-hitting Dominican middle infielder Eli Alvarez on July 2, 2011. He hit just .205 in his 2012 debut, then played sparingly in 2013 and 2014 because of injuries. He began to make progress at Rookie-level Johnson City in 2015—he ranked as the No. 10 prospect in the Appalachian League—before experiencing a complete breakthrough at low Class A Peoria in 2016.

Alvarez ranked among the Midwest League leaders with a .323 average (fourth), 36 stolen bases (first), 36 doubles (second), a .404 on-base percentage (second) and a .476 slugging percentage (third). He runs and defends well at second base and is growing into average power.

• Best Hitter: Mets shortstop Amed Rosario hit .341 at high Class A St. Lucie (99th percentile), Indians catcher Francisco Mejia hit .347 at low Class A Lake County (99th) and Diamondbacks shortstop Ildemaro Vargas hit .354 at Triple-A Reno (99th).

• Best Power: Yankees catcher Kyle Higashioka recorded a .264 isolated slugging percentage at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (99th percentile).

• Best Speed: Yankees shortstop Jorge Mateo stole 36 bases, hit nine triples and scored 65 runs in 113 games at high Class A Tampa.

Corner Infield & Outfield

No	Batter	Org	Pos	Lvl	PA	AVG	SecA	SO%	OPS+	WAA
1	Cozens, Dylan*	Phillies	of	AA	586	.276	.470	31.7	153	4.3
2	Gomez, Miguel	Giants	3b	LoA	467	.330	.239	11.3	158	3.0
3	Palka, Daniel*	Twins	of	AA	568	.254	.386	32.7	135	2.7
4	Aquino, Aristides	Reds	of	HiA	526	.273	.324	19.8	136	2.6
5	Ervin, Phillip	Reds	of	AA	505	.239	.377	17.4	127	2.2
6	Marmolejos, Jose*	Nationals	1b	HiA	579	.289	.311	19.5	141	2.2
7	Winker, Jesse*	Reds	of	AAA	463	.308	.249	13.6	133	2.2
8	Lugo, Dawel	D-backs	3b	HiA	510	.311	.221	11.0	127	1.7
9	Skole, Matt*	Nationals	1b/3b	AAA	573	.244	.329	20.8	119	1.7
10	Cordero, Franchy*	Padres	of	HiA	602	.290	.247	25.6	132	1.6
11	Engel, Adam	White Sox	of	AA	582	.259	.318	22.5	118	1.6
12	Duenez, Samir*	Royals	1b	LoA	579	.284	.269	14.9	117	1.6
13	Cordell, Ryan	Brewers	of	AA	445	.264	.319	21.8	117	1.5
14	Granite, Zack*	Twins	of	AA	584	.295	.247	7.4	103	1.5
15	Osuna, Jose	Pirates	1b/of	AA	517	.279	.252	15.5	126	1.3
16	Peterson, D.J.	Mariners	1b	AA	504	.264	.273	23.6	125	1.2
17	Sierra, Magneuris*	Cardinals	of	LoA	562	.307	.156	17.3	127	1.1
18	Guzman, Ronald*	Rangers	1b	AA	511	.274	.259	20.5	113	1.1
19	Hannemann, Jacob*	Cubs	of	AA	327	.247	.326	16.8	121	1.0
20	Alford, Anthony	Blue Jays	of	HiA	401	.236	.333	29.2	109	1.0
21	Brugman, Jaycob*	Athletics	of	AAA	609	.285	.250	19.9	120	1.0
22	Andujar, Miguel	Yankees	3b	AA	570	.273	.211	12.6	115	0.8
23	Phillips, Brett*	Brewers	of	AA	517	.229	.331	29.8	115	0.7
24	Brinson, Lewis	Brewers	of	AA	434	.268	.278	20.0	101	0.7
25	Becerra, Wuilmer	Mets	of	HiA	263	.312	.142	19.8	115	0.6
26	Bautista, Rafael	Nationals	of	AA	607	.282	.227	15.5	90	0.4
27	Williams, Nick*	Phillies	of	AAA	527	.258	.211	25.8	99	-0.1
28	May, Jacob#	White Sox	of	AAA	321	.266	.173	22.4	87	-0.3

• Who’s No. 1?: Phillies right fielder Dylan Cozens led the minors with 40 home runs and 125 RBIs at Double-A Reading. The 6-foot-6, lefthanded-hitting slugger accessed his power completely in 2016 and hit numerous home runs to the opposite field and to straightaway center. Cozens, a 2012 second-round pick from high school in Scottsdale, Ariz., not only ranked first in the Eastern League in homers and RBIs but also among the leaders with 38 doubles (first), a .591 slugging percentage (first), 106 runs (first) and 61 walks (fifth).

• Best Hitter: Giants third baseman (and converted catcher) Miguel Gomez hit .371 at low Class A Augusta (100th percentile).

• Best Power: In addition to Cozens and his .315 isolated slugging percentage at Double-A Reading (100th percentile), two other outfielders ranked in the 99th percentile: Twins right fielder Daniel Palka with a .277 ISO at Double-A Chattanooga and Reds right fielder Aristides Aquino with a .246 ISO at high Class A Daytona.

• Best Speed: The two most notables here are White Sox center fielder Adam Engel, who stole 31 bases, hit nine triples and scored 56 runs in 74 games at Double-A Birmingham (and he produced similar results on a rate basis at Triple-A Charlotte), and Twins center fielder Zack Granite, who led the minors with 56 steals, hit eight triples and scored 86 runs in 127 games at Double-A Chattanooga.

Starting Pitcher

• The major league average for starting pitchers from 2014 to 2016 was 1.06 home runs per nine innings, 7.3 percent walks and 19.7 percent strikeouts.

No	Batter	Org	Pos	Lvl	IP	HR/9	BB%	SO%	ERA+	WAA
1	Enns, Dietrich*	Yankees	lhp	AA	135	0.40	10.4	23.0	211	4.2
2	Jorge, Felix	Twins	rhp	HiA	167	0.54	3.5	16.6	171	3.0
3	Lively, Ben	Phillies	rhp	AAA	171	0.58	6.3	20.9	153	2.8
4	Castillo, Luis	Marlins	rhp	HiA	132	0.21	4.8	19.8	156	2.7
5	Romero, Fernando	Twins	rhp	HiA	90	0.10	4.3	26.1	189	2.6
6	Banda, Anthony*	D-backs	lhp	AA	150	0.60	8.6	23.7	158	2.1
7	Wood, Hunter	Rays	rhp	HiA	113	0.56	9.8	23.5	174	2.0
8	De Jong, Chase	Dodgers	rhp	AA	147	0.92	6.8	22.7	134	2.0
9	Astin, Barrett	Reds	rhp	AA	103	0.70	6.2	23.8	159	2.0
10	Hu, Chih-Wei	Rays	rhp	AA	148	0.49	6.3	18.9	145	2.0
11	Pivetta, Nick	Phillies	rhp	AA	149	0.73	8.3	22.4	125	1.9
12	Lockett, Walker	Padres	rhp	HiA	164	0.38	3.6	18.3	134	1.9
13	Ramirez, Yefrey	Yankees	rhp	HiA	124	0.65	6.5	26.8	124	1.8
14	Hader, Josh*	Brewers	lhp	AAA	126	0.43	10.5	30.8	231	1.7
15	Garcia, Elniery*	Phillies	lhp	HiA	118	0.61	7.6	19.1	128	1.6
16	Almonte, Yency	Rockies	rhp	HiA	168	0.96	7.8	22.0	110	1.5
17	Slania, Dan	Giants	rhp	AA	120	0.68	7.1	22.6	149	1.4
18	Voth, Austin	Nationals	rhp	AAA	157	0.63	8.6	20.2	118	1.0
19	Stephens, Jackson	Reds	rhp	AA	151	0.42	6.4	20.5	108	0.9
20	Anderson, Drew	Phillies	rhp	HiA	70	0.39	7.9	28.0	137	0.8
21	Blackburn, Paul	Athletics	rhp	AA	143	0.50	6.0	16.9	112	0.4
22	German, Domingo	Yankees	rhp	HiA	50	0.54	5.6	19.2	113	0.3
23	Schultz, Jaime	Rays	rhp	AAA	131	0.83	12.3	29.5	105	0.2
24	Herrera, Ronald	Yankees	rhp	AA	137	0.66	6.6	22.9	98	0.2
25	Junis, Jake	Royals	rhp	AA	149	1.09	5.5	23.1	106	0.1
26	Jaye, Myles	Tigers	rhp	AA	162	0.72	6.0	19.9	94	0.0
27	Pruitt, Austin	Rays	rhp	AAA	163	1.16	4.1	22.7	100	0.0
28	Flexen, Chris	Mets	rhp	HiA	134	0.40	8.9	16.6	102	0.0
29	Travieso, Nick	Reds	rhp	AA	117	0.85	10.4	17.8	93	-0.1
30	Baez, Sandy	Tigers	rhp	LoA	113	0.56	5.8	18.4	91	-0.2
31	Tirado, Alberto	Phillies	rhp	LoA	65	0.42	14.4	35.1	102	-0.2
32	Holmes, Clay	Pirates	rhp	AA	136	0.66	10.7	16.9	98	-0.3
33	Smith, Nate*	Angels	lhp	AAA	150	1.08	6.8	18.9	100	-0.3
34	Fried, Max*	Braves	lhp	LoA	103	0.87	11.1	26.4	103	-0.3
35	Underwood, Duane	Cubs	rhp	AA	73	0.86	10.6	18.8	92	-0.3
36	Mella, Keury	Reds	rhp	HiA	139	0.52	9.3	16.5	109	-0.5
37	Appel, Mark	Phillies	rhp	AAA	38	0.70	11.6	19.8	85	-0.6
38	Pinto, Ricardo	Phillies	rhp	AA	156	1.15	7.7	15.2	100	-0.8
39	Borucki, Ryan*	Blue Jays	lhp	LoA	136	0.73	6.7	20.5	135	-0.8
40	Gunkel, Joe	Orioles	rhp	AAA	161	0.89	3.1	16.1	90	-1.0
41	Jemiola, Zach	Rockies	rhp	AA	162	0.83	6.6	13.1	84	-1.1
42	Carle, Shane	Rockies	rhp	AAA	111	0.73	6.4	17.5	95	-1.7
43	Sims, Lucas	Braves	rhp	AA	141	0.96	14.6	25.2	102	-1.7

• Who’s No. 1?: Yankees lefthander Dietrich Enns finished runner-up for the minor league ERA title this year, recording a 1.73 mark in a career-high 135 innings and 22 starts in which he went 14-4 with 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. As the 25-year-old continues to build experience after 2014 Tommy John surgery he might be able to improve his control. (He walked 3.7 per nine in 2016.) As it stands, Enns, a 19th-round pick in 2012 from Central Michigan, doesn’t have outstanding stuff—though he did have an outstanding year.

• Most Dominant: Brewers lefthander Josh Hader finished at or near the 100th percentile in two leagues this year in terms of strikeout rate. He fanned 32.7 percent of batters at Double-A Biloxi (100th) before striking out 29.3 percent at Triple-A Colorado Springs (98th). Rays righthander Jaime Schultz struck out 29.5 percent of batters at Triple-A Durham (98th), while Yankees righthander Yefrey Ramirez struck out 27.0 percent at high Class A Tampa (96th) and Yankees lefthander Dietrich Enns whiffed 26.1 percent at Double-A Trenton (96th).

• Best Control: Twins righthander Felix Jorge finished in the 97th percentile this year in terms of walk rate by issuing free passes to just 3.1 percent of batters at high Class A Fort Myers and then 4.0 percent of batters at Double-A Chattanooga. Orioles righthander Joe Gunkel, a 2015 trade pickup from the Red Sox for Alejandro De Aza, walked 3.1 percent of batters at Triple-A Norfolk (97th).

• Groundball Pitcher: Pirates righthander Clay Holmes earned a 40-man spot despite a 4.22 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at Double-A Altoona because of his extreme groundball rate: 63 percent of all balls in play, according to MLBfarm.com.

Relief Pitcher

• Because ERA does not accurately reflect a reliever’s value, I created a junk stat called weighted dominance (wDOM) to summarize his ability to limit home runs, hits and walks while racking up strikeouts. I assigned a 4-3-2-1 weighting system, using the hierarchy HR-SO-H-BB, to each reliever’s units above or below average for the given statistic. The resulting scale runs from zero to about 20 for this sample of relievers.

• The 2014 through 2016 major league averages for relievers were 0.93 homers per nine, 8.8 percent walks and 22.3 percent strikeouts.

No	Batter	Org	Pos	Lvl	IP	HR/9	BB%	SO%	wDOM	WAA
1	Gallegos, Giovanny	Yankees	rhp	AAA	78	0.58	5.8	36.1	19	2.7
2	Liranzo, Jesus	Orioles	rhp	LoA	53	0.51	13.0	31.9	11	1.6
3	Hernandez, Ariel	Reds	rhp	HiA	62	0.15	15.1	28.7	11	1.4
4	Steckenrider, Drew	Marlins	rhp	AA	52	0.17	9.6	36.0	14	1.4
5	Rosario, Jose	Cubs	rhp	AAA	54	0.17	7.5	20.6	2	1.4
6	Sherfy, Jimmie	D-backs	rhp	AAA	56	0.97	11.1	36.6	13	1.3
7	Wahl, Bobby	Athletics	rhp	AA	55	0.49	12.8	29.7	8	1.2
8	Moronta, Reyes	Giants	rhp	HiA	59	1.07	8.2	38.3	14	1.2
9	Rhame, Jacob	Dodgers	rhp	AAA	63	0.71	10.6	26.5	7	1.1
10	Middleton, Keynan	Angels	rhp	HiA	66	1.23	10.3	32.5	11	1.1
11	Wick, Rowan	Cardinals	rhp	HiA	45	0.20	10.9	31.0	9	0.9
12	Gonzalez, Rayan	Rockies	rhp	AA	52	0.35	10.6	22.7	3	0.8
13	Bell, Chad*	Tigers	lhp	AAA	98	0.37	10.4	21.3	3	0.8
14	Adams, Austin	Angels	rhp	AA	44	0.41	13.0	34.2	9	0.7
15	Fry, Paul*	Mariners	lhp	AAA	55	0.16	12.7	26.6	8	0.7
16	Goldberg, Brad	White Sox	rhp	AAA	57	0.48	10.9	21.3	2	0.6
17	Martin, Kyle	Red Sox	rhp	AAA	67	0.68	7.7	28.8	8	0.6
18	Vieira, Thyago	Mariners	rhp	HiA	44	0.20	9.5	28.0	6	0.6
19	Ruiz, Jose	Padres	rhp	SS	11	0.00	10.3	33.3	3	0.6
20	Paredes, Eduardo	Angels	rhp	AA	70	1.03	6.8	25.3	4	0.5
21	Johnson, Chase	Giants	rhp	AA	52	0.35	8.3	17.0	0	0.5
22	Leathersich, Jack*	Cubs	lhp	AA	18	0.00	9.3	37.3	4	0.5
23	Neverauskas, Dovydas	Pirates	rhp	AAA	58	0.16	9.3	23.6	5	0.4
24	Guduan, Reymin*	Astros	lhp	AAA	56	0.48	14.7	25.1	5	0.4
25	Edwards, Andrew	Royals	rhp	AAA	61	1.03	12.4	27.8	6	0.3
26	Alvarado, Jose*	Rays	lhp	HiA	71	0.13	17.6	27.2	9	0.0
27	Ysla, Luis*	Red Sox	lhp	AA	56	0.64	10.9	25.1	4	0.0
28	Moll, Sam*	Rockies	lhp	AAA	49	0.91	8.8	20.5	0	-0.4
29	Stanek, Ryne	Rays	rhp	AA	102	0.79	11.2	26.3	8	-0.8

• Who’s No. 1?: A 25-year-old Mexican righthander whom the Yankees signed for $100,000 in 2011, Giovanny Gallegos missed much of 2011 and 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He worked as a starter or swingman in 2013 and 2014 before becoming a full-time reliever in 2015. Gallegos’ career blossomed in 2016, when he recorded a 1.27 ERA to go with 106 strikeouts in 78 innings and a .175 opponent average at Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Compared with a league average pitcher this year with the same number of innings, Gallegos struck out 40 additional batters while allowing two fewer homers, 29 fewer hits and 11 fewer walks.

• Most Dominant: In addition to Gallegos’ strikeout rate of 36.1 percent, Giants righthander Reyes Moronta struck out 38.3 percent of batters at high Class A San Jose and Diamondbacks righthander Jimmie Sherfy struck out 36.6 percent at three levels, primarily Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno.

• Best Control: Gallegos walked just 5.8 percent of batters, followed by Reds righthander Barrett Astin with 6.2 percent at Double-A Pensacola and Angels righthander Eduardo Paredes with 6.8 percent at two levels, mostly Double-A Arkansas.

• Groundball Pitcher: Reds righthander Barrett Astin (63 percent groundball rate), Rockies lefthander Sam Moll (55 percent), Mariners lefthander Paul Fry (57 percent) and Giants righthander Chase Johnson (56 percent) are the best in this department.