Paul Skenes: Baseball America's 2024 Rookie Of The Year

Image credit: Paul Skenes (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

From No. 1 pick to No. 1 starter in less than a year.

That summarizes the rise of Pirates righthander Paul Skenes, who won a national championship with LSU in 2023, went first overall in the draft that year and then made his MLB debut on May 11 this year.

While the Pirates did not contend for a championship in 2024, it wasn’t for lack of a frontline ace. Skenes pitched as advertised as a rookie, going 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA, 170 strikeouts and 32 walks in 133 innings. He allowed just 10 home runs in 23 starts.

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Even in a crowded National League rookie field, Skenes stood out. He turned in one of the strongest seasons by a rookie pitcher in the Wild Card Era, rivaling Spencer Strider, Kerry Wood, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Jose Fernandez and imported Japanese aces Hideo Nomo and Yu Darvish in terms of dominance.

The various statistics outlined below illustrate why Skenes is Baseball America’s Rookie of the Year in 2024:

1.96 ERA

Some baseball numbers require no context. An ERA hovering near 2.00 over a sizable sample is one such number.

Skenes fell about 30 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, but his 1.96 ERA was the lowest of any pitcher with at least 120 innings this season. In fact, it is one of the lowest ERAs for any pitcher with as many innings during the Wild Card Era.

In the past 30 seasons, 10 different pitchers have a sub-2.00 ERA in a season of 120 innings or more. The list includes Clayton Kershaw (three times) and Pedro Martinez (two), with single appearances from Jake Arrieta, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Jacob deGrom, Zack Greinke, Greg Maddux, Blake Snell and Justin Verlander.

While those pitchers threw a lot more innings than Skenes did this year, they also were not rookies, like Skenes, and were not pitching for a last-place team like the 2024 Pirates.

214 ERA+

A microscopic ERA might not require context, but the age of the pitcher recording the microscopic ERA adds valuable context.

Skenes turned 22 years old at the end of May. Only one pitcher as young—or younger—than Skenes had a better adjusted-ERA+ in a season of at least 120 innings during the Integration Era. That one pitcher: 20-year-old phenom Dwight Gooden for the 1985 Mets. Gooden was actually in his sophomore MLB season when he went 24-4 with a 1.53 ERA in 276.2 innings.

So while Skenes isn’t at Gooden’s level of dominance—or workload!—his 1.96 ERA compared to the National League average of 4.13 and adjusted for his home park yields a 214 ERA+ that makes him 114% more effective at preventing runs than the average NL pitcher.

Top ERA+ By 22U Pitcher (Since 1947/Min. 120 IP)

Dwight Gooden | 1985 Mets | 276.2 IP | 229 ERA+
Paul Skenes | 2024 Pirates | 133.0 IP | 214 ERA+
Francisco Liriano | 2006 Twins | 121.0 IP | 208 ERA+
Vida Blue | 1971 Athletics | 312.0 IP | 183 ERA+
Mark Prior | 2003 | Cubs 211.1 IP | 179 ERA+
Jose Fernandez | 2013 Marlins | 172.2 IP | 176 ERA+
Michael Soroka | 2019 Braves | 174.2 IP | 171 ERA+
Jim Nash | 1966 Athletics | 127.0 IP | 166 ERA+
Sam McDowell | 1965 Indians | 273.0 IP | 161 ERA+
Mark Fidrych | 1976 Tigers | 250.1 IP | 159 ERA+

26.8 K-BB%

Analysts say strikeout percentage minus walk percentage is the best predictor of ERA. If that’s the case, then Skenes is in great shape for 2025.

His 33.1% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate yield a 26.8 K-BB% that stands as the second-best ever for a rookie pitcher with at least 120 innings.

Braves righthander Spencer Strider holds the rookie record with a 29.7 K-BB% mark in 2022. The rest of the top five includes Twins lefthander Francisco Liriano (23.7), Gooden (23.1) and Mets righthander Noah Syndergaard (22.4).

100 Pitches At 100 mph

Power is key to Skenes’ success. No starting pitcher threw more pitches at 100 mph or faster than he did in 2024.

Skenes threw exactly 100 pitches at the century mark in 2024—no rounding up!—more than twice as many as the Angels’ Jose Soriano, who threw 46 fastballs at 100 mph.

In the Statcast era, Skenes has already thrown the sixth-most pitches at 100 mph among starters. Skenes is a rookie with one season under his belt. Everybody ahead of him has at least three seasons in the big leagues.

Skenes trails only Hunter Greene, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Nathan Eovaldi and Gerrit Cole in total 100 mph fastballs thrown by starting pitchers since 2015.

Rare Rookie To Start An All-Star Game

Skenes started the 2024 All-Star Game and threw a clean inning.

Just four rookies had started the ASG previously, the last being 26-year-old Japanese import Hideo Nomo of the Dodgers in 1995.

The other rookies to start an All-Star Game were Dodgers lefthander Fernando Valenzuela in 1981, Tigers righthander Mark Fidrych in 1976 and Senators righthander Dave Stenhouse in 1962.