Patrick Bailey vs. Austin Wells: 2020 MLB Draft Prospect Showdown, Catcher Rankings

Scouts seem to be higher on Wells’ pure hit tool, though both catchers have similar college production, albeit with one extra season for Bailey. Their numbers are glaringly different when considering summer stats. Wells hit .308/.389/.526 with seven home runs in the Cape Cod League and Bailey hit .231/.333/.308 in a smaller sample with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. There are more swing-and-miss concerns with Bailey than Wells, whose swing is purer. EDGE: Wells

Power: Both players have above-average power potential, so this one could come down to who is able to get to more of that power in games. Wells seems to get to his power more easily, and has plus raw juice, while Bailey has more above-average power. EDGE: Wells.

Speed: This is the least important tool for a catcher, but scouts have called Wells an average runner. He went a perfect 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts at Arizona. EDGE: Wells

Fielding: This is where Bailey gains a big advantage as the best catch-and-throw prospect in the 2020 draft class. He has exceptional hands, blocking ability and he is one of the rare college catchers to call his own game. He has a chance to be a plus-plus defender while many teams think Wells might have to move off the position. EDGE: Bailey

Arm: Wells has shown plus arm strength at times, but he’s also dealt with elbow issues that have limited him and caused him to display more of a fringy arm. Bailey has a consistently plus arm. EDGE: Bailey

X Factor: How teams evaluate catchers today could be wildly different in a few years, when automatic strike zones will probably be a part of the major league landscape. Presumably, catcher framing will be less valuable with robo umps calling the pitches, which would help Wells and hurt Bailey. But controlling the running game with arm strength and quick, fluid throwing mechanics—not to mention blocking balls in the dirt with runners on base—should always be priority skills at the position. That is where Bailey shines. EDGE: Bailey

Scout’s take on Bailey: “Elite catch-and-throw skills. I don’t like his swing much but he has hit in the ACC for two years . . . Could be an average power guy and a 40 bat. If you have plus defensive skills that’s an all-star-caliber player . . . I would say he’s the best defensive catcher in the country.”

Scout’s take on Wells: “He’s more like Matt Thaiss than anyone else, though he has more power than Thaiss . . . It’s plus power for Wells, good plate discipline, sees the ball really, really well. Discipline is plus and contact ability is average to a tick better.”

SPOTLIGHT: Top 2020 Catchers

Strength: 4 stars

This year’s catching talent runs deep, though it lacks the impact standout of an Adley Rutschman, the No. 1 overall pick last year. Austin Wells has the most offensive upside in this year’s draft class but faces long odds to stick behind the plate.

First-Round Talents
No.	Rank	Player	School	State	HIT	POW	RUN	FLD	ARM
1	14	Patrick Bailey	North Carolina State	NC	45	55	40	70	60
2	18	Tyler Soderstrom	HS—Turlock	CA	55	60	30	40	60
3	21	Austin Wells	Arizona	AZ	60	55	50	40	45
Second-Round Talents
No.	Rank	Player	School	State	HIT	POW	RUN	FLD	ARM
4	37	Dillon Dingler	Ohio State	OH	50	55	40	55	70
5	38	Drew Romo	HS—The Woodlands	TX	40	50	45	70	60
6	48	Kevin Parada	HS—Los Angeles	CA	55	55	40	50	55
Third- To Fifth-Round Talents
No.	Rank	Player	School	State	HIT	POW	RUN	FLD	ARM
7	100	Jackson Miller	HS—New Port Richey	FL	50	45	40	55	50
8	101	Casey Opitz	Arkansas	AR	40	40	40	60	60
9	116	Daniel Susac	HS—Carmichael	CA	45	60	40	50	60
10	131	Carlos Perez	HS—Miami	FL	40	50	40	60	60