Owen Caissie, Jonah Tong Lead 10 Statcast Standouts (April 29)

10 Statcast Standouts

Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs

The major league median maximum exit velocity is roughly 110 mph. Caissie has cleared 112 mph four times already this season, including a 115.5 mph scorcher, which suggests plus-plus raw power. I’m always skeptical of single-data-point metrics such as max exit velocity. I generally prefer to look at batters within the lens of 90th percentile exit velocity, which is usually more consistent year to year.

The chart above is showing only players 25 years old or younger in Triple-A. Of those batters, Caissie sits at the very top. He’s hitting the ball harder than James Wood, with more loft and slightly less swing and miss. This doesn’t mean that Caissie is a superior prospect, but it does highlight his exceptional raw metrics. His 109.4 90th-percentile exit velocity would suggest 75-80 raw power, plus-plus bordering on elite. That’s exceptional for any batter, and very exciting for a batter as young as Caissie.

Caissie only has one home run this season, limiting his OPS to a merely good .834. But if he continues to blister the ball the way he has, it’s only a matter of time before he starts getting closer to the 20+ he hit last season.

Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets

Ben Badler recently highlighted Tong among 10 pitching prospects who’ve increased their pitch quality this year. Tong is absolutely overwhelming hitters in the Florida State League. He has 36 strikeouts in 18.2 inning, just five walks and a WHIP of 0.64. He’s given up zero earned runs, and only seven hits. But wait, you say, why are you reading me top-line stats? We only want to know the underlying stuff! Ah, glad you asked, as the underlying stuff might just be better…

IVB, or induced vertical break, measures how much a pitch resists gravity. Generally speaking, any fastball with 18 inches or more IVB will be a plus pitch. You can see that just about every fastball Tong throws is above this line, with plenty in the 20+ range.

Let’s zoom in on the fastball:

The larger filled bubbles indicate whiffs. You can see how his fastball just chews up hitters when it gets 21 inches or more of ride. As crazy has his performance has been, it might get even better if he can consistently get to that magic 21-inch number.

When you get that much ride, velocity doesn’t matter, but Tong is averaging a very respectable albeit slightly below-average 92.7 mph. However, he’s been as high as 97.2 mph, indicating two very positive things: First, he’s pitching well below his max, suggesting he might be less of an injury risk, as he’s not pitching at max effort. Second, he has the potential to sit 95 mph or above, assuming natural growth and maturation. Performance can often be misleading at the lower levels of the minors. However, when you combine elite traits with a 47% whiff rate (in zone and out of zone, righties and lefties), along with a monstrous 20.3% swinging strike rate (against both righties and lefties), it’s basically checking every single pitch quality box you can ask for.

Let’s take a look at Tong’s fastball command, which looks like it could use some work:

The size of the box indicates the proportion of pitches to that zone. To lefties, he’s all over the place, and isn’t able to consistently attack the top of the zone. Against righties, he’s mostly throwing it middle-away and it’s just overwhelming Low-A batters. However, that may not work as he moves up the ladder.

Let’s take a look at Jared Jones as a comparison:

Jones consistently targets the top of the zone, especially right above the zone, where batters are mostly helpless, with very few pitches in the bottom third. Tong should aspire to Jones’ template. It will be important to track how he progresses on this front.

Currently Tong is mostly using his cutter/slider to righties, and he is doing a great job locating it:

The cutter/slider has ideal velocity at 86 mph, and is the type of pitch that usually pairs very well with an elite riding fastball. It’s currently mowing hitters down with a 62% whiff rate and 32.5% swinging strike rate, and given the quality of the fastball, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it continue to perform really well as he moves up. It’s somewhat concerning that he doesn’t have the confidence to throw it to lefties, where he prefers to throw the curve and change.

This is the Jared Jones / Spencer Strider template. In my opinion, Tong is the fourth-best pitching prospect in all of the minor leagues right now.

Thomas White, LHP, Marlins

In the preseason, Noble Meyer was a buzzy potential breakout pick. Instead, Thomas White has catapulted himself into a potential front-line starting pitcher so far. White appears on this list for the second time, so let’s dive deep into his pitch data.

White has a plus fastball at 95 mph (topping out at 97.5) with above-average ride from the left side. Given his 6-foot-5 frame and his youth, he could add even more velocity, which would put him in the upper tier of lefthanded starting pitchers. He’ll need to add an inch or two of extra ride on the fastball. If he can, it easily becomes a double-plus pitch. White’s fastball has performed unspectacularly, mostly due to what looks like scattershot command:

He’s filling the zone with it, but looks to be more of a control over command type pitcher at this point. His fastball doesn’t yet have the elite ride to allow this approach to play. However, it is encouraging that he can at least zone the pitch at this stage of his development.

White becomes a two-pitch pitcher against lefties, pitching mostly with his fastball, but mixing in a sweeping slider at 81 mph, with good depth and decent sweep. I’m not sold on this pitch to opposite-handed batters. I think he should work on a gyro slider in the 87-88 mph range that he can use against righties and lefties. Assuming he makes natural gains in velocity, he could have an elite slider if he goes the gyro slider route.

The changeup gets almost 16 inches of run and has performed exceptionally well against righties, with a 48% whiff rate and a 29% swinging strike rate. Changeups are hard to project and model, however, it’s very encouraging that he has the pitch, as it’s critical weapon against opposite handed batters, especially for a left handed pitcher.

White needs to take several small steps in his development to enter the upper echelon of pitching prospects. If he can take those steps (2-3 mph velo bump, 1-2 inches of ride on the four-seam fastball, develop a true gyro slider), he’ll be a top 30-40 prospect.

Jesus Baez, SS/3B, Mets

Geoff Pontes recently highlight Baez as a Standout. Let me show you a picture to describe why Baez is such a good prospect.

He’s young for the level, making tons of contact, hitting the ball at present MLB-level exit velos and hitting it in the air, with a very promising 16-degree average launch angle. These are the building blocks you want to see in a young player. With natural progression, his top-level performance should start to reflect the underlying metrics in the near future.

Alfredo Duno, C, Reds

Duno has an enormous base, allowing him to generate easy plus power with loft. I’m more of a data guy than a visual scouting guy, but Duno definitely looks the part of a big ,strong power hitter. It’s hard to believe he’s barely 18 years old. Dun’s ability to elevate his hardest-hit balls makes him potentially special. Almost all of his hard-hit balls have launch angles over 30 degrees. You could argue that he’s getting too much under the ball, but he’s going to be hitting absolute moonshots in a couple of years when he grows into another couple of ticks of exit velocity.

Duno ranks No. 90 in the Baseball America Top 100. In my eyes, though, he’s not quite a Top 100 prospect. He has a ton of swing and miss to his game, which may ultimately prevent him from reaching his ceiling. A lot of that might have to do with his angle of attack. Having a slightly flatter approach may lead to both slightly better outcomes and slightly more contact. This is the archetype that I love to fall in love with, but often doesn’t quite pan out. When they do, it’s a whole lot of fun. He’s currently hitting .280/.362/.520, good for an .882 OPS as an 18-year-old in Low-A. Keep an eye on Duno and his rare power potential.

First homer of '24 for Alfredo Duno! pic.twitter.com/PjDXWQ4J4B

— Reds On The Rise (@RedsOnTheRise) April 21, 2024

Aidan Miller, SS/3B, Phillies

Miller played in the Florida State League at the end of last season as well, so we can see some evidence of changes he’s made in the offseason. He’s maintained his exquisite contact rate, reducing his whiff rate from 19.7% last season to 19.1% this year, while increasing his aggression, swinging at 45% of pitches this season (up from 38% last season). The key improvement is his improvement from a 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, to 105.5 mph this season, well above the major league average. He still struggles to make consistently hard contact, with poor average exit velocities, and his max exit velo is fringy, so this isn’t a surefire, ticks-all-the-boxes kind of profile. However, given the contact skills and defensive profile, if the 90th percentile exit velocity power is painting a correct picture, we’re looking at a very productive baseball player.

Jordan Beck, OF, Rockies

I wanted to take a slightly different look at the data than my usual hitter charts. Beck looks very good if we look at how often a player hits the ball hard (95 mph+) and in the air (15 degrees or higher). While his whiff rate is somewhat elevated, it’s within the range of playable, and has improved considerably since last season (37.8% in Double-A to 28.1% in Triple-A this year). His raw power is probably roughly average, but he makes the most of it. His .313/.414/.615 slash line is supported by the underlying batted ball data. He looks poised to be a productive hitter for the Rockies in the near future.

Everson Pereira, OF, Yankees

Pereira has been on our radar for quite some time now:

A picture says a thousand words (see the Jordan Beck chart). In Pereira’s case, it’s great contact quality and terrible swing and miss. That’s a hard profile to make work in the big leagues, let alone the Bronx. I think there’s a chance he can be a Jose Siri type and hit just enough homers to make it all work given the plus defense. It will likely take a trade from the Yankees system before that happens.

Omar Alfonzo, C, Pirates

I love when the data surface a player I’m not familiar with. In this case, I get the opportunity to learn a little bit about Omar Alfonzo, who ranks outside the Pirates Top 30. He’s a little old for the level, but he’s made some massive year to year gains, increasing his average exit velocity by 2.5 mph, his max by 6.5 (to a notable 112), his 90th percentile exit velocity by 2.3 mph (to a plus 105.6) and is also lifting the ball more, going from a six-degree average launch angle to a more workable 11-degree average launch angle.

Not only has he made gains in the power department across the analytical board, he’s maintained his patience (very passive 34% swing rate) while whiffing only 20% of the time, a drastic improvement from the 27.7% he showed last year. This is a player that has made significant improvements between 2023 and 2024. He could shoot up the Pirates list if he maintains this level of contact and batted ball quality. It’s very rare for a player to make gains in contact, power and launch angles all at the same time, and at such a large rate, which may indicate that Alfonzo knows how to get the most out of himself. I’ll be watching him closely going forward.

Christian Scott, RHP, Mets

Scott is absolutely carving up hitters in Triple-A. I may not have many more opportunities to write about him, so let’s dive into his pitch data.

Scott is a legit four-pitch pitcher. He can generate whiffs on all of his pitches. His 15.4 inches of IVB on his fastball looks pedestrian on the surface, but is actually above-average ride given the very low arm angle. His fastball will likely be at least an average pitch from a pure stuff perspective. Scott’s command makes him special.

He does a great job of elevating the fastball, rarely wasting pitches in the lower third of the zone, where his fastball doesn’t get much swing and miss.

He’s able to locate the slider in on the hands of lefties, with almost no misses over the heart of the plate.

For righties, he uses his sweeper to sweep away from the righties. It gets huge swing and miss off the plate as well as on the outer third. He’s thrown 24 sweepers to lefties with zero whiffs. This is what elite command looks like: pitches clustered where the pitcher should be throwing them.

He locates the changeup down and in to righties and down and away to lefties. He gets surprisingly few whiffs on the pitch to lefthanded batters, though, which is something to monitor. Usually changeups are better against opposite handed batters.

Pitchers with this level of command and good enough stuff are usually very good major league pitchers. It’s only a matter of time before he joins the Mets rotation.