NL East Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Image credit: Oregon State righthander Aiden May (Photo courtesy of Oregon State).
Each week, I dip into public Statcast data to provide insight on up-and-coming minor league talent. Now that the draft is complete, I will shift gears and dig into some data on recent draftees.
It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.
We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.
More Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Atlanta Braves
Carter Holton, LHP, 2nd Round
Holton is often characterized as an “undersized” pitcher due to his 5-foot-11 frame, however, if we glance through the Braves’ top prospects, four of their top five pitchers are in the 6-foot-1 to 6-foot-2 range, and Spencer Strider is only 6 feet tall. This may or may not be a demographic that the Braves are targeting either directly, or as a market inefficiency (bigger players have more potential for leveraging ground effects and maximizing velocity through the kinetic chain).
Holton has a fairly vertical delivery, meaning his rising 93-mph sinker with 17-18 inches of IVB gets about average ride given his arm slot, and I have it as roughly an above-average sinker, given its huge total movement profile. He looks to be a good candidate to add a four-seamer (if the pitch classification is correct), which might add a couple of inches of ride and be an average or better pitch. He throws a two-plane curveball at 77 mph, and a gyro slider at 83-84 that could be his best pitch. Metrically, Horton looks similar to a lot of their top pitching prospects thanks to a riding fastball and a gyro slider, just from a smaller frame.
Herick Hernandez, LHP, 4th Round
The 5-foot-10 Hernandez and 5-foot-11 Holton sandwich the 6-foot-8 Luke Sinnard, so while the Braves aren’t afraid to draft and develop smaller stature guys, they don’t exclusively target that demographic. Hernandez has an even more vertical delivery than Holton, making his 92-mph fastball with 19 inches of ride play down. He has a gyro slider with negative vert that he’ll need to throw a little harder, and a high-spin two-plane curveball at 2700 rpm that could give him a nice three -pitch mix. He’s not going to blow batters away with this profile, as he’ll probably need three-plus mph of velocity gains to be a viable pitching prospect.
Ethan Bagwell, RHP, 6th Round
Bagwell’s data is from 2023, where he threw a 92-mph fastball with great extension and dead zone shape. On the surface, that isn’t encouraging, but it was from a then-17-year-old. This is a development bet on projecting velocity gains. Along with great present extension, there’s hope they can put him in the lab and fix his pitch shapes.
Brett Sears, RHP, 7th Round
Sears signed for $12.5K, giving the Braves about $230K of bonus pool flexibility to move around and use on other players. His 89-mph fastball has decent shape and good extension. He’ll need to add a ton of velocity to be a viable prospect.
Jacob Kroeger, LHP, 10th Round
None of Kroeger’s pitch shapes stand out, as he throws a 91-mph sinker without sink or run, a hard changeup with a 3-4 mph gap to the sinker, as well a slow slider at 80, a fastball at 91-92 and a curveball at 78. This makes him a five-pitch lefty with a decent performance track record. The vast majority of these guys won’t pan out, but every once in a while, this type of pitcher adds velcity and learns how to better optimize their pitch shapes.
Miami Marlins
Aiden May, RHP, CB-B
May is a low-slot sinker/slider guy with a lot of potential. The sinker is a roughly average pitch with good velocity at 94.5 mph, but he needs to learn how to better leverage seam-shifted wake effects to better optimize the pitch. His calling card is a hellacious sweeper with 18 inches of glove-side sweep and 2900 rpm. Sweepers that can approach 3000 rpm are very likely to be good quality pitches from a stuff perspective. The pitch could probably reach 20-plus inches of sweep with major league training and development.
In addition to the sinker/sweeper pair, he shows the ability to throw a gyro cutter at 89 mph with low spin efficiency and a 95-mph cut-fastball that grades out as nearly average and can be a very effective pitch. Pitches that are labelled as four-seam fastballs but have low spin efficiency operate differently than high-efficiency four-seamers. The classic examples of this is Justin Steele, and his future teammate, Cade Horton. He flashed a curveball with 2840 rpm and a split change at 88 mph with huge depth and low spin.
So, May is pitcher with six interesting pitches, good present velocity, elite feel for spin and at least one plus-plus pitch already in the slider. It’s no surprise he performed well this year, and I expect him to do even better as he hones his stuff. Usually guys with this much movement on their pitches have terrible walk numbers; May only walked 23 batters in 73 innings this year. I love this pick.
Nick Brink, RHP, 7th Round
Brink has a 91-92 mph fastball from an extremely vertical slot and an excellent gyro slider at 83 that has a very low estimated spin efficiency and which will grade out well if he can find a few more ticks of fastball velocity. He mixes in a changeup without sink or fade and a slurve at 80 mph. He’ll need to throw at least 95-96 to be a viable prospect.
Jake Faherty, RHP, 11th Round
Faherty is my favorite value pick at this point in my writeup. How does a talent like this fall to the 11th round? He’s probably “just” a reliever, and he walked 9 batters in 14.2 SEC innings, but between the SEC and the Cape Cod League, he compiled 40 strikeouts to 11 walks in 22.2 innings with an ERA in the low 2.00s while surrendering just one HR.
You’re probably not reading this column to find out how he did at the collegiate level, so let me get to why he’s such a great value pick:
He primarily threw a plus sinker at 96-pmh with huge run at almost 17 inches. The sinker already grades out as better than major league average, albeit with the college ball. However, it isn’t even the most interesting pitch he throws. His four-seam fastball, thrown from the same low arm slot, gets 17-18 inches of IVB, which is 4.5 inches above average for the release. That makes it an easy plus pitch at that velocity, with the potential for more as he can spin it at an elite 2750 rpms. He mixes in a gyro cutter at 88 mph that could use some optimization, and given the sinker profile, he should also be a good candidate for a sweeper.
I’d give Faherty a chance to start. There are very few pitchers with the potential to throw two high-quality fastballs, and he has enough feel for spin that he could add a viable fourth or fifth pitch, if needed. Giving him reps and innings will give him the chance to iron out the command. This is an absolute steal for the Marlins here.
Chase Centala, RHP, 20th Round
Centala is another low-slot sinker guy with good velocity (93.4 mph) that he pairs with a gyro slider showing average spin at 86 mph. The stuff is solid, if not spectacular; a good value for a 20th round pick.
New York Mets
Carson Benge, RHP, 1st Round
Carlos Collazo had Benge as the 15th-ranked player in the class, mostly due to his potential as a hitter. That makes sense, as his pitching arsenal doesn’t warrant a first round pick. He throws both a four-seamer and a sinker at 91-92 mph, with the four-seam variant probably being the better pitch. It has 17 inches of IVB from a low-ish arm angle, which he gets excellent extension on. His primary secondary is a 2600-rpm, two-plane curveball at 79 mph that should be a decent offering. He also has a changeup with good depth at 83-84 and a promising gyro slider with negative vert that would likely be much better if he could add some velocity to both it and the fastballs.
He rounds out his impressive arsenal with a cutter at 87 mph that could use some optimization to increase the gyro spin. It’s a nice six-pitch mix that provides a nice backup plan should hitting not work out for him.
Will Watson, RHP, 7th Round
Watson has the rare attribute of having both a present plus sinker and a present plus fastball, in terms of stuff quality. The fastball is above average in almost every aspect: 95 mph, 18.5 inches of IVB (+3.3″ over expected) from a low slot and good extension at 6.7 feet. His rising sinker will work very well against righthanded batters. Watson’s changeup gets great fade with 16.5 inches per 0.4 seconds of ball flight at about 8-9 mph slower than the fastballs. He also has a true bullet slider with very low spin efficiency that he’ll probably want to throw closer to 85-86 mph rather than the current 81 or so. He flashed a curveball with slurvy shape at 81.
Ryan Lambert, RHP, 8th Round
Lambert has a very nice fastball. it showed great velocity at 97 mph and above average ride in the MLB Draft League (which uses the MiLB ball), suggesting the pitch shape will translate very well to pro ball. He may have room for growth with the fastball, as he currently only gets 5.6 feet of extension and spins the ball extremely well at over 2700 rpm. Lambert pairs that with a hard, bullet slider at 86 to 88 mph, which should pair very well with the vertical fastball. He has tremendous feel for spin on all his pitches, so there’s a chance for a very good starting pitcher here, with an easy fallback to a high-leverage bullpen role.
Jaxon Jelkin, RHP, 9th Round
Jaxon is a 6-foot-5 righty with a 2800-rpm slider and 2900-rpm curveball, as well as a low-slot sinker that is close to being an average pitch with some optimization. He also has a promising changeup with 18-19 inches of fade at 87 mph. I think he’s a nice blend of present stuff, with plenty to dream on given the frame and feel for spin. He didn’t sign last season when the Dodgers drafted him in the 14th round, and has yet to sign with the Mets this year. At the time of writing, indications are he won’t sign.
Brendan Girton, RHP, 10th Round
Girton features a deceptive, low-slot fastball at 93-94 mph, which tops out at 96 with about average ride given his almost 60 degree arm angle (90 degrees being fully sidearm). He pairs it with a gyro slider at 85 that likely needs to be less spin efficient, as well as a mini-sweeper that doesn’t sweep enough to be effective, though he has the arm slot to have an effective sweeper. He also flashed a hammer curve at 85 and a mediocre changeup without fade or depth at 87 mph.
Ethan Lanthier, RHP, 12th Round
Lanthier threw mostly mini-sweepers in my data set, featuring a scant 11-12 inches of sweep but promising spin rates north of 2700 rpm. The Mets likely think they can put him in the lab and develop it into a true sweeper, teaching him to be more spin efficient with the pitch. Both his fastball and sinker grade out well, given the movement profile from his low three-quarters slot and above average velocity at 94 mph. His changeup has a lot of potential, getting 17-18 inches of armside run and only six inches of vertical ride. This is a very nice pickup for the 12th round.
R.J. Gordon, RHP, 13th Round
Gordon is yet another right-handed pitcher with a fastball showing good vert (albeit a fringe-average one). It has subpar velocity at 91 mph, topping out at 94. He complements that with a two-plane curveball at 75, a gyro cutter/slider at 84-86 without standout traits and a changeup with solid depth at 82.
Tanner Witt, RHP, 14th Round
Continuing the trend of RHP with vertical fastballs, Witt represents perhaps a tad more upside if they can get him to fully tap into his 6-foot-6, 230-pound frame and throw harder than the 91 mph he averaged. It’s a fairly vertical release, and the 6.7 foot release height means his 17.5 inches of ride is roughly average given the arm slot. That said, the pitch does have promising spin at 2500 rpm. He complements it with a huge breaking ball at 77 mph that he’ll likely need to tighten up and throw harder. Its a key marker is his exceptional feel for spin at almost 2900 rpm. He also mixes in a changeup that doesn’t do much. This is a development bet on MLB bloodlines and the hope that he improves as he moves farther away from Tommy John surgery.
Owen Woodward, RHP, 15th Round
At the risk of repeating myself, Woodward has a 93-mph fastball with above- average vertical ride and good extension. He has a promising gyro slider with low spin efficiency at 85-86 and also flashed a two-plane curveball with huge spin. If this sounds a lot like some of the other pitchers on this list, you’d be correct. I don’t have data on all the Mets draftees, but the ones I do tend to have good vertical fastballs and a secondary or two with great spin rates.
Josh Blum, RHP, 16th Round
Blum changed his release point from 2023 to 2024, going from a low release to a very vertical release. This not only allowed him to throw a lot harder, it also unlocked his ability to get vertical ride on the pitch, making it an above-average offering shape-wise. It has over 20 inches of vertical at 93 mph, thought that is somewhat offset by the almost fully-overhand delivery. He throws both a gyro cutter and slider, with they cutter variant coming in about 3-4 mph harder. Both pitches show good spin rates at 2600 rpm, meaning Blum fits neatly into the archetype of pitcher the Mets appear to have been targeting on draft day.
Philadelphia Phillies
Titan Hays, RHP, 11th Round
The public Statcast data for the Phillies begins with Hays. The numbers are from 2023, but came via the MLB Draft League, which uses the same ball as MiLB. It’s a solid sinker at 94 (up to 96.5) that currently has terrible shape. It is what I would classify as a dead zone sinker, as it doesn’t leverage seam-shifted wake effects at all, nor does it rise enough to be a useful whiff pitch. This, however, is something that can be addressed with pro pitching development.
A.J. Wilson, LHP, 12th Round
Wilson has a very weird four-seam fastball that gets less ride than the sinker variant,. That said, if we classified it as a sinker, which it probably is, it would grade out pretty well thanks to tremendous vertical movement deviation (movement that deviates from what the spin axis would predict). It is only about 91-92 mph, but comes from an extremely low slot at roughly 75 degrees. I think it’s a very interesting pitch, though it’s hard to make a sinker work against opposite handed batters, as sinkers have a large platoon split. He pairs it with a sweeping slider with very good feel for spin at 2750 rpm, but not enough sweep at present. With proper pitching lab development, Wilson could be a useful lefty, one-inning guy.
Tegan Cain, RHP, 13th Round
Cain has an intriguing sinker, with almost 20 inches of armside run at 93 mph (up to 95.5 MPH). It’s an average or better pitch from a pure stuff perspective at present, and he pairs it with a very promising changeup with huge depth (almost zero inches of ride) and good fade. He had one gyro slider in my dataset that graded out quite well, as well as two sweepers that showed potential. This is a very interesting arm to get in the 13th round. He could be a very good against righty-heavy lineups and perhaps more if he can develop the changeup into a true weapon. This is easily my favorite late-round pick of the Phillies draft class.
Luke Gabrysh, RHP, 15th Round
Gabrysh features a power sinker at 95 mph (up to 97) , that is pretty close shape-wise to being a good pitch. He’ll need to learn how to leverage seam-shifted wake effects, as I have the pitch with little-to-no movement deviation from the spin axis. He’s now the fourth-straight low-slot sinker guy I’m writing up, and, much like the Mets list above, this would appear to be a trait the Phillies think they know how to develop. The rest of his data points are messy, but they indicate that he throws a gyro slider and a changeup.
Eli Trop, RHP, 16th Round
Finally, I get to write about a pitcher with the same name as me, though his is probably pronounced Eli as in Manning, whereas mine is pronounced Elly, as in De La Cruz. I wish he was a more exciting prospect, but alas, he is not. He is, however, yet another low-slot (basically completely sidearm) righty that has a sinker with no movement deviation that the Phillies are going to look to develop. His data is from 2023 only.
Ryan Degges, RHP, 17th Round
Degges is another low-slot righty, but he has both a quality rising sinker at 94 mph and a pretty good four-seam fastball at 94 with about 1-2 inches of ride over expected given his low slot. He flashed both a gyro slider and a mini-sweeper, though both will need shape tweaks. He rounds it out with a depth-y changeup at 86.
Erik Ritchie, RHP, 19th Round
Ritchie is a high-slot lefty who throws a four-seam fastball at 89 mph as his primary pitch. However, in 2023, he had a lower slot and showed a sinker. Neither variant has good shape, though his slider in 2023 showed tremendous potential at over 3000 rpm, which would be elite. I think the Phillies will try to get him back to his 2023 slot and lean into the slider and back to throwing the sinker. His spin rates on his 2023 fastball was also fantastic, sitting around 2600 rpm.
Washington Nationals
Jackson Kent, LHP, 4th Round
Kent has a dead zone fastball with subpar ride at only 91 mph. However, he has a good changeup with depth that generated a lot of whiffs and a gyro slider at 84 mph with extremely low estimated spin efficiency, among the lowest in the public Statcast data set. He mixes in a gryo curve at 76, a low spin efficiency pitch and negative seven inches of IVB. The Nationals are betting on the athlete here, as he played wide receiver and quarterback in high school.
Robert Cranz, RHP, 7th Round
Cranz has a great four-seam fastball, with his IVB/Flight sitting at No. 1 overall in the public Statcast data despite below average extension. His velocity jumped from 2023 where he sat 90-91 to 93 mph this season, topping out at 96 mph. He pairs that with a 2650-rpm gyro slider that he needs lower spin efficiency with and a 2750-rpm curveball with two-plane break. This is the archetype of pitcher that I am most partial to: A very vertical fastball with great shape, a gyro slider and feel for spin.
Luke Johnson, RHP, 10th Round
Johnson will need to throw a lot harder than the 87 mph he averaged to be a viable prospect. He signed for $2K and was likely a strategic move to give the Nationals bonus pool flexibility. From a pure stuff perspective, unlikely that he’d get drafted, so it’s a nice win-win, where he gets a shot to play in a professional organization.
Yoel Tejeda, RHP, 14th Round
Tejeda is a 6-foot-8 righty with a low arm slot and very good velocity at 94-95 mph on both his sinker and fastball variants. He also has enormous extension, at over 7.3 feet. He mixes in a gyro slider at 82-83 that will need some work and more velocity. I love the potential, given the huge frame and present velocity, albeit without standout movement.
Gavin Bruni, LHP, 17th Round
Bruni is a slider specialist, but the slider isn’t particularly great. He pairs it with a 91-mph fastball with about average ride given his vertical arm slot. He was up to 96 in high school, and if he can find that kind of velocity again, he might be a viable prospect.
