NL Central Draft Picks With The Most Intriguing Statcast Pitch Data
Image credit: Texas A&M's Evan Aschenbeck in Game 3 of the the College World Series. (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
Each week, I dip into public Statcast data to provide insight on up-and-coming minor league talent. Now that the draft is complete, I will shift gears and dig into some data on recent draftees.
It is important to note that the dataset is incomplete. Pitchers may or may not translate their pitch shapes directly from college baseball to the majors due to differences in the baseballs, as well as potential differences in data quality and measurement. If a pitcher isn’t included here, it’s because there wasn’t any Statcast data.
We’ll also be looking at things primarily through a “stuff” lens. Namely, those pitch shapes that have the potential to work in the major leagues. This is inspired by the countless examples of unheralded college pitchers who take huge leaps once they hit a major league development system.
Chicago Cubs
Evan Aschenbeck, LHP, 13th Round
Aschenbeck is the only Cubs pitcher we have public Statcast data on other than Eli Lovich, who projects as a batter. Aschenbeck throws both a sinker and a four-seam fastball, with the four-seam being a much better pitch, getting 19 inches of ride from a low slot, making his 91 mph play up. He manages to get 6.8 feet of extension on the pitch, adding up to a average fastball grade from a stuff perspective. Aschenbeck pairs it with a bullet slider with extremely low spin efficiency, but it will struggle to be an effective pitch at its current 80-81 mph velocity. He rounds out the arsenal with a changeup with drop and fade. This is the vertical fastball, gyro slider, changeup package which works very well as an arsenal, but he’ll need to add 3-4 mph of velocity to make it work at the major league level.
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns, RHP, 1st Round
I dove into detail on Burns’ glorious Statcast data, which you can read here, but I’m such a huge fan of his, I’m going to write about him some more.
Burns’ data are electric, with elite velocity that he holds deep into starts, elite feel for spin (his 2700 rpm fastball would be the highest in MLB, this year and last year, including relief pitchers), good extension and tremendous vertical ride. While there are concerns that his fastball is too hittable, and that he gave up too many home runs in college, I’m here to tell you that this package of elite fastball traits, in an elite athletic frame, just doesn’t come along very often. He pairs it with a double-plus gyro slider, a hammer curveball with elite spin, and a changeup with huge armside run. This is two present plus-plus pitches (fastball and gyro slider), with the potential for a third, and at least an average changeup that he can sprinkle in to lefties.
I love his fire and passion on the mound. In my opinion, it’s as good evidence as anything that he wants to compete each and every pitch. There are aspects to pitching that you can teach and train, and there are some you just can’t. It’s extremely hard to train elite velocity if you don’t have it, and next to impossible to learn how to spin the ball the way Burns already does. If I was designing a pitcher in a lab, he would look something like Chase Burns.
Luke Holman, RHP, CB-B
Holman, doesn’t have anywhere near the spin rates that Burns does, but he makes the most of it, with an extremely efficient four-seam fastball that gets about 2-3 inches of ride above expected given his arm slot, with nearly 20 inches of IVB/flight. There’s some projectability in his frame, lending hope that he can build on his present 92 mph velocity.
He has a true gyro cutter with an almost 0/0 movement profile, but he’ll need to throw it about 3 mph harder to hit that crucial 85/86 mph threshold that gyro sliders need to be effective. Holman throws an interesting gyro curve (for lack of a better term) a low spin efficiency pitch that gets -5 inches of vert, at the same velo band as the gyro slider. He also has a rising sinker with a ton of movement that grades out really well. This profile usually needs a good changeup to round it all out. Given the lack of spin on his pitches, I really like the gyro slider and gyro curve combination. It’s a nice blend of present stuff, track record of performance in college, and some projectability to dream on.
Jordan Little, RHP, 15th Round
Little throws a 94 mph fastball with good ride, which plays up from his low arm slot, it should be good enough shape-wise to not stand in his way. I have a limited sample set for his secondaries, but his two-plane curveball at 81 mph looks promising, as does his changeup that he got good depth on. He also had a couple of mini-sweepers that don’t sweep enough to be viable. This is a nice blend of velocity and decent secondaries, and a tremendous value in the 15th round.
Jimmy Romano, RHP, 16th Round
Romano added 2-3 inches of ride to his fastball from 2023 to 2024, but it still has below-average ride, even with the MiLB baseball used in the MLB Draft League. He gets solid velocity on the pitch, averaging 92-93 mph (topping out at 95), but he’ll need to either improve his velo a lot, or have standout secondaries to be viable.
We see what looks like a gyro curveball in the bottom left. A gyro curveball is a pitch that generally has curveball topspin, but also very low efficiency. It’s labelled a slider in the chart. We see a changeup without fade or depth, and perhaps a cut-fastball at 90 mph.
Trent Hodgdon, RHP, 17th Round
Hodgdon is the classic Stuff vs Performance guy, with a career 6.59 ERA across three NCAA seasons, with 87 strikeouts in 56 innings, albeit with an alarming 48 walks. That explains why his solid 93 mph fastball with about 19 inches of ride slipped all the way to the 17th round. He’ll need a massive leap in command and probably a couple ticks of velocity to be a viable big-league prospect.
Milwaukee Brewers
Chandler Welch, RHP, 6th Round
Welch started 17 games this season, averaging just over five innings a start, with 24 walks in his 89 innings, to 88 strikeouts. Let’s break down his arsenal, which has some promise.
Every discussion about a starter begins with the fastball, and in Chandler Welch’s case, he has two very distinct fastballs. His sinker is clearly the better pitch, with 15 inches of armside run, and while it’s currently a below-average pitch, he already gets great vertical movement deviation (more drop than the spin axis would indicate), and should make it a very effective pitch against the lefties. The challenge will be finding a primary fastball against lefties, as four-seam fastball, which operates in the 93 mph range, about 2 mph harder than the sinker, has poor shape despite his lower arm slot.
The pitch labeled a curveball is probably a sweeper, as it gets positive vertical movement deviation, and many of the pitches hit the critical baseline of 16 inches of gloveside sweep, with plenty in the 20s. It’s easily his best pitch, and he averaged almost 2700 rpms on it, a key ingredient for an effective sweeper. He’s also able to throw a true gyro slider with low spin efficiency, giving him two distinct slider shapes. There are tweaks to be made with both pitches to throw them harder, and be more consistent shape-wise. He’ll need to develop a changeup, which he’s flashed good depth on, as he currently doesn’t have any true weapons against lefties. This is looks like a solid arm that might never grace a Top 100 list, but end up having a productive major league career.
Mason Molina, LHP, 7th Round
Molina makes the most of his 89 mph fastball, getting 21 inches of ride on the pitch, which is well above-average for his slot. Given the exceptional ride the pitch gets, it’s no surprise he’s struck out 260 batters in 200 collegiate innings. If he can maintain that kind of ride transitioning to the MiLB ball, it will be an average pitch even at that velocity. He pairs it with a changeup that gets good depth, a huge curveball at 75 mph that’s probably too big and slow for the majors, and a low spin efficiency gyro slider that should pair extremely well with the vertical fastball. The upside is obviously limited due to the velocity, but there’s a very good chance he outperforms many pitchers who throw much harder than him.
Sam Garcia, LHP, 8th Round
Garcia is another soft-tossing lefty that was a starter in college and performed rather well, striking out 115 batters in 89 innings this season. He has an extremely low arm angle, but still manages to get excellent ride on his four-seam fastball, allowing it to play up well above its velocity. He pairs it with a gyro slider that probably needs more velocity, but will benefit from the vertical break differential to the fastball.
Caedmon Parker, RHP, 11th Round
Parker has a 92 mph fastball with suboptimal shape. We see the majority of his four-seamers falling below the expected ride given his release point. He throws his cutter really hard, almost as hard as the fastball. The cutter might be the pitch the Brewers really liked and are hoping to build around. His curveball has huge two-plane movement and good feel for spin around 2600 rpms. We also see a few changeups, with tremendous fade, and excellent depth.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Josh Hartle, LHP, 3rd Round
Hartle’s fastball appears to be a hard cutter. It’s essentially a low spin efficiency four-seam fastball, which won’t rely on vertical break to be effective. His sweeper is fascinating, with incredible drop and sweep, and tremendous spin at 2900 rpms. He has the natural arm angle to make this pitch work. It could be a deadly weapon against lefties, even with just a 91 mph fastball (faster fastballs help offspeed pitches play up). The gyro slider should be a useful platoon-neutral weapon as well. Hartle’s stock is way down after a poor season. We’ll see if the Pirates pitching dev can right the ship.
St. Louis Cardinals
Brian Holiday, RHP, 3rd Round
Holiday features a riding fastball at 92 mph, with roughly 1 inch of ride above expected, though it remains to be seen if the ride will fully translate to the minor league ball. His gyro slider was a whiff machine, despite not having any standout traits. He mixes in a huge curveball at 77, and a changeup with poor shape at 82 mph. Holiday’s stuff could play up in a bullpen role, especially if it helps him find a few extra ticks on the fastball. He was a successful starter in college, so he’ll likely begin his career as a starter, which would mean he’ll need to drastically improve the curveball and changeup.
Braden Davis, LHP, 5th Round
Davis’ fastball gets slightly above-average ride. He combines it with a weird changeup that has almost the same movement profile, but with a 10 mph gap. It was a whiff machine, so it’s possible the weird shape will make it work. He rounds out the arsenal with a gyro slider that also generated a lot of whiffs. The lack of fastball quality limits the arsenal, but he might have two quality secondaries already.
Andrew Dutkanych IV, RHP, 7th Round
Dutkanych IV has the type of fastball I love to see, with every single pitch getting more ride than expected given his release point. It’s an easy plus fastball with good velo at 94, up to 96, and over 19 inches of ride. He has a bullet cutter/slider at 85 with extremely low spin efficiency, a big curveball at 80 mph with tremendous spin (2750 rpm) and a splitter/changeup that he can kill spin with and get good depth. This is a very exciting arm that I think he’ll be a top-200 prospect if he can throw strikes.
