NCAA Baseball Tournament Bubble Watch (5/14/24)
Image credit: Drew Burress (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
With less than two weeks until Selection Monday, the race for the NCAA Tournament is reaching a fever pitch.
As Selection Monday approaches, I’ll be tracking the development of the Field of 64 and, most importantly, what every team needs to do to secure an at-large bid.
For these purposes, I’ll sort teams that are in at-large contention into three camps:
1) Locks. Reserved for teams that could lose out and still make the NCAA Tournament. That’s a bit nit-picky, but when I say lock, I mean it.
2) Should be in. Generally, a team that would be solidly in if the field was selected today.
3) Work to do. Nothing is guaranteed for these teams.
In the conference records listed, I include any win against a conference team, whether it counts toward the conference standings or not because that is how the information is presented to the selection committee. So, for instance, Illinois gets credit for a conference win for its victory against Michigan State in an early season tournament. Overall records do not include any wins against teams outside of Division I, as those do not appear in the information presented to the selection committee and do not factor into RPI’s calculation.
RPI remains the selection committee’s primary metric, but this year it has also brought KPI into the mix. It’s unclear how much emphasis KPI will be given in the selections, so while I’m looking at it and referencing it, I haven’t presented those rankings here for the sake of keeping this a bit more easily digestible.
ACC
The ACC splits evenly into two halves at this stage of the season: 1) teams with at least 15 ACC wins and top-25 RPIs and 2) everyone else. The seven teams that fit in the top half are all locked into bids. Georgia Tech, Louisville and Virginia Tech have work to do, while Boston College, Miami, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh are focused on securing ACC Tournament berths.
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest
Should be in: None
Work to do: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech (30-19, 14-13; RPI: 48; SOS: 49): The Yellow Jackets got a critical series win against Duke, pushing their RPI into the top 50 and themselves into eighth place in the ACC standings. Its underlying metrics aren’t great, especially its non-conference strength of schedule (243). But it’s now in a position where a series win in the finale at Florida State would put it in the tournament. A single win this weekend wouldn’t end the Yellow Jackets’ hopes, but they would be quite bubbly going into the ACC Tournament. A sweep probably would represent the end of the line.
Louisville (29-22, 13-14; RPI: 62; SOS: 39): A week ago, I was very bullish on the Cardinals’ chances. They had surged in RPI and were 13-11 in ACC play with two weeks to play. Unfortunately, Louisville over the weekend went to North Carolina and got swept. That has undone much of the hard work it had previously done and ensured that it will be bubbly, at best. Louisville is going to be dinged for its awful non-conference schedule (266) if it ends up on the bubble. The best way to avoid that now is to get to 16 ACC wins, which means sweeping this weekend’s series against Notre Dame. Winning its game Tuesday against Indiana is also advisable, as Louisville is also dealing with RPI trouble again. The Cardinals are in a much tougher spot today.
Virginia Tech (32-17, 14-13; RPI: 55; SOS: 104): The Hokies have been trending the wrong way for two months. They were 21-5 on April 1, since then they have gone 11-12 and lost all five of their ACC series. After losing this weekend at home to Miami, Virginia Tech has fallen out of the top 50 and must win its rivalry series at Virginia to finish with a winning ACC record. Given its downward trend, poor RPI and abysmal non-conference strength of schedule (280), Virginia Tech cannot afford anything less than a series win. Having said all of that, however, a series win would resolve a lot of what ails the Hokies’ resume.
Big 12
I moved West Virginia to the locks this week. Texas belongs there too, but those eight quad four losses are just weighing heavy on its RPI, and I just can’t pull the trigger. Everyone else has some degree of work to do still.
Lock: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Should be in: Texas
Work to do: Cincinnati, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, UCF
Cincinnati (30-21, 16-11; RPI: 53; SOS: 67): The Bearcats have played their way into the tournament conversation by winning five of their last six Big 12 series, including a sweep of BYU over the weekend. Cincinnati is now in a very interesting spot. It’s in fifth place in the Big 12 and is assured of a winning conference record. It has a difficult final week ahead, as it hosts UConn and Oklahoma, two teams that give it a chance to improve its bubbly RPI and pick up some high-end wins (UConn will be a quad 2 game and Oklahoma provides three quad 1 games). The opportunity is there for Cincinnati to play its way into the tournament. On the flip side, a poor week would be potentially devastating. The good news for the Bearcats is that they’re 17-6 at UC Baseball Stadium and that homefield advantage could be a critical difference.
Kansas (29-18, 15-12; RPI: 65; SOS: 86): The Jayhawks remain in a tough bubble spot, even after their series win against Houston. They’re in sixth place in the conference standings and own some solid wins, including a season sweep of Nebraska. But their RPI is north of 60 and they’re short on quality wins (7-12 vs. quads 1 and 2). This weekend at Texas is a must-win but even then they’d probably need more in the Big 12 Tournament.
Kansas State (29-21, 13-14; RPI: 36; SOS: 17): The Wildcats were left bubble out last year despite going 15-13 against Big 12 competition due to poor metrics. Coach Pete Hughes, to his credit, made some scheduling changes for this season that have dramatically improved K-State’s metrics. Those metrics have K-State in a solid position, but the Wildcats now need to finish the job this week against South Dakota and BYU. Three wins this week should have K-State in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 – but a series loss to BYU is highly inadvisable as it would mean the Wildcats have a losing Big 12 record and would push their RPI closer to 50.
Texas (32-20, 17-10; RPI: 44; SOS: 26): The Longhorns have won 10 of their last 13 games, including five straight Big 12 series, to surge into the top 45 in RPI and third place in the Big 12. I can barely imagine them missing the NCAA Tournament at this point. On the other hand, if they got swept this weekend and went 0-2 in the Big 12 Tournament, their RPI would back up to a bubbly range and they’d probably drop to sixth in the conference standings. None of that would be good but even then, they have 12 quad 1 wins, a mark only bested by Kentucky (18) and Tennessee (13). The problem is Texas has eight quad 4 losses and no team in the top 100 of RPI has more of those. Ultimately, if Texas wins just one game this weekend, it should be all set. Leaving out a team that finished in the top five of the Big 12 standings with 18 conference wins feels highly unlikely.
TCU (30-17, 13-14; RPI: 38; SOS: 47): The Horned Frogs have won seven of their last eight games, turning a bubble-out resume into one that looks much more promising. They finish this weekend at home against West Virginia. If they win the series, they’re in. If they go 1-2, they’re probably fine. If they get swept, the Frogs will be in serious trouble. TCU is 20-6 at Lupton Stadium this season, however.
UCF (31-17, 12-14; RPI: 40; SOS: 31): UCF lost a home series against Texas and its RPI has slipped into a tricky range. From a raw RPI perspective, there’s nothing wrong with it and UCF can maintain a top-45 RPI with just two wins this week (Bethune-Cookman, at Baylor), according to BoydsWorld.com. The trouble is UCF is ninth in the Big 12 and short of a sweep at Baylor, it will have a losing Big 12 record and that, combined with an RPI in the 40s and a 3-7 mark in quad 1 games, is going to be a tough sell. It’s probably eighth in the conference pecking order (though the committee doesn’t technically look at things through that lens), ahead of only Kansas. I think if UCF sweeps Baylor, it would be hard to leave out. A series win might be good enough as well, but things could get tight on the bubble.
Big Ten
The conference race remains quite messy and much of the league remains in RPI trouble. I locked up Nebraska, as it is now assured of a top-45 RPI and a top-five conference finish. Everyone else needs to finish strong.
Lock: Nebraska
Should be in: None
Work to do: Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Purdue
Indiana (28-21-1, 13-8; RPI: 56; SOS: 32): The Hoosiers took a tough series loss at Nebraska, falling to third in the Big Ten standings. They’re still paying the price for a poor March (and the final couple days of February), when they went 9-13, including four quad 4 losses. That’s created a real RPI issue for IU, which needs to be near perfect to get into the top 50 by the end of the regular season. Unfortunately, it faces a difficult closing stretch (at Louisville, Michigan). At this point, I don’t think there’s anything the Hoosiers can do to feel safe going into the Big Ten Tournament. They simply need to win as many games as they can this week.
Illinois (30-17, 16-6; RPI: 58; SOS: 94): Illinois has won five of its last seven games, pushing its RPI into the top 60 and itself into first place in the Big Ten. It’s not out of the woods, however. The RPI is never going to be good and poor records in road games (5-10) and against quality competition (4-10 quad 1, 6-12 vs. quads 1 and 2) are going to dog it. But winning the Big Ten title, which Illinois can do this weekend with a series win at Purdue, would be a nice feather in its cap (and provide more quad 2 wins). Would it put it over the top? I don’t know. But the Illini need all the help they can get.
Maryland (34-19, 10-11; RPI: 35; SOS: 74): In a conference of teams with good league records and bad RPIs, the Terrapins stand out as the opposite. Maryland goes into the final weekend in a three-way tie for seventh place in the conference, one game ahead of Penn State (its opponent this weekend) and Minnesota. It must finish in the top eight of the standings to reach the Big Ten Tournament, which is likely a (unofficial) prerequisite to its at-large case. It also would be wise to at least get to .500 in conference play, making this weekend an absolute must-win and a sweep sure would be nice. The rest of the resume is good, not great (2-2 vs. quad 1, 13-10 vs. quads 1 and 2, just one quad 4 loss) and I’d be interested in knowing how the regional advisory committee would line up Indiana (which won its series at Maryland), Illinois (which lost its series at Maryland) and the Terrapins. Its selling point is its RPI, but Maryland can’t finish better than seventh place in the conference standings. All the Terrapins can do is make this tough for the committee.
Purdue (32-19, 13-8; RPI: 68; SOS: 92): The Boilermakers have lost consecutive series to Big Ten contenders (Indiana, Michigan), likely ending their tournament hopes. But they still have a shot at the Big Ten title this weekend against Illinois and if they win that, maybe there’s still a path to regionals. We’re probably talking about a must-sweep series though.
Pac-12
A three-bid Pac-12? That looks like it’s becoming more and more likely, unless someone other than Arizona, Oregon or Oregon State wins the conference tournament. It would be unfortunate to see the once-proud league go out as a three-bid conference, but here we are.
Lock: Arizona, Oregon State
Should be in: Oregon
Work to do: California, Utah
California (31-18, 16-13; RPI: 67; SOS: 108): Cal couldn’t afford a loss last weekend against San Jose State, but it took one in Sunday’s finale. And that might be it for the Golden Bears. Their RPI is down to 67 and they’re in seventh place in the Pac-12 standings (they do have two extra conference wins for sweeping their midweeks against Stanford, which makes things look better, but I’d expect everyone to see through the raw number). If Cal sweeps Washington this weekend, it would have 19 Pac-12 wins. That’s a big number and it is 5-2 in quad 1 games (12-11 vs. quads 1 and 2). But it would still have work to do next week in Scottsdale.
Oregon (34-16, 17-11; RPI: 46; SOS: 88): The Ducks should be fine, but their RPI is keeping me from locking them up. This weekend against Washington State is a must-win to keep the RPI in decent shape. The bigger question is if it’s a must-sweep. I find that hard to believe – Oregon is clearly a top-three team in a solid conference, is 11-7 in quads 1 and 2 and has only one quad 4 loss. I’d hope everyone can look past what would be only a so-so RPI if Oregon did lose a game this weekend, but you never know. The Ducks can make that concern moot with a sweep.
Utah (31-18, 16-11; RPI: 71; SOS: 129): Sadly, I believe it’s over for Utah, one of the feel-good stories of the season. The Utes won 30 games for the first time since 2002 and were in first place in the Pac-12 at the start of May. But the resume, which was never great, has backed up significantly as they have lost five of their last seven games. They could still finish as high as second in the Pac-12 with a sweep this weekend at Southern California and a lot of help. But that’s not fixing the metrics (KPI doesn’t rate Utah any better than RPI), a 2-4 mark in quad 1 games or the fact they lost series to the three best teams in the conference.
SEC
No new locks this week, though I did rearrange the rest of the teams to recognize which teams most need wins on this final weekend of the regular season. South Carolina stands alone at “Should Be In”, while Alabama and Vanderbilt join Florida, LSU and Mississippi in “Work To Do”.
There’s been a lot of talk this season about how many SEC wins a team needs to make the tournament. I’ll have a piece that digs deeper into that question later this week, but I do want to say here briefly that 13 wins, while often the number thrown out as the target (including by me), is not a lock. Thirteen is the minimum number required, historically. Thirteen earns you a serious spot in the bubble discussion and 14 can be considered effectively a lock (as long as you have a top-40 RPI, which all of the relevant teams will this year).
Locks: Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Should be in: South Carolina
Work to do: Alabama, Florida, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Alabama (32-19, 12-15; RPI: 11; SOS: 3): This is pretty straightforward for Alabama: beat Auburn once. Its premium RPI and SOS give it a lot of leeway in terms of conference record. In fact, if it sweeps this weekend, Alabama can go to Hoover playing for a host spot. But it needs that one win first.
Florida (26-25, 11-16; RPI: 29; SOS: 1): The Gators face a must-win weekend at Georgia. Not only do they need two wins to get to 13 SEC wins, they still need to ensure that they finish the season with a winning overall record, a prerequisite for any team to receive an at-large bid. Florida decided not to add any non-conference games to its schedule (it had two openings after Opening Weekend rainouts), so there is no margin of error here or politicking that can happen. Florida either wins the series at Georgia, earns its 13 SEC wins and guarantees it has a winning overall record or it will need to – at a minimum – reach the SEC Tournament semifinals. The bad news to all of that is Georgia is 28-3 at Foley Field and enters this weekend on an eight-game winning streak. If Florida wins this series, it will have earned its bid.
LSU (33-20, 10-17; RPI: 34; SOS: 21): The Tigers took a brutal series loss at Alabama, losing a pair of one-run games, including Friday’s devastating walk-off loss. That leaves LSU with 10 SEC wins and facing a must-sweep series at home against Ole Miss. While I might argue that LSU’s resume is strong enough to merit serious consideration even if it finishes at just 12-18 in the SEC, it would be fighting a lot of precedent against 12-win SEC teams.
Mississippi (27-24, 11-17; RPI: 24; SOS: 2): The Rebels crucially upset Texas A&M and now go to LSU with a straightforward task: win the series. Ole Miss’ RPI and SOS are plenty good enough to get in with 13 SEC wins (and I would argue with 12 SEC wins), but it has to get there first.
South Carolina (33-18, 13-14; RPI: 19; SOS: 14): The Gamecocks last weekend were swept at home by Georgia and that probably dashed their hosting hopes (though a series win this weekend would put them back in the mix). They don’t need to sweat things because of their metrics, but I’m not locking them up without 14 SEC wins. They can hit that number with one win this weekend at Tennessee.
Vanderbilt (34-18, 12-15; RPI: 28; SOS: 19): The Commodores are insisting on doing this the hard way. After last weekend getting swept at Georgia, Vanderbilt lost its first two games against Tennessee, putting its backs against the wall. The Commodores got an important win in the finale and now go to Kentucky needing one more win. Their metrics are good enough to get in with 13 SEC wins (and I’d probably argue they’re good enough now).
Sun Belt
I’m ready to lock up Louisiana, which clinched the conference title over the weekend. I still don’t love the RPI (39), but I can’t imagine the Sun Belt champion getting left out and it only needs one more win to assure itself of a top-45 RPI (at the end of the regular season), according to BoydsWorld.com.
Everyone else has some degree of work to do, but the conference is very much still tracking toward multiple bids.
Lock: Louisiana
Should be in: Southern Miss, Troy
Work to do: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, James Madison
Appalachian State (30-17-1, 15-11-1; RPI: 64; SOS: 146): If you’re an App fan reading this because you’ve seen that the Mountaineers are in fourth place in the Sun Belt and are on the cusp of winning more than 30 games for the first time since 2012 (the last time they made the NCAA Tournament) and wondering if there’s a shot at an at-large bid, the answer is probably not. App has bad metrics – the RPI is a problem and its non-conference strength of schedule (236) is going to be held against it, as is its 1-5 mark in quad 1 games. With a sweep this weekend of Georgia Southern and a lot of help, it can still finish as high as second place in the Sun Belt. But that alone is unlikely to carry the day.
Coastal Carolina (30-21, 13-14; RPI: 37; SOS: 12): Coastal got the series win it needed against Georgia State. Now, it’s aim for the final weekend is straightforward: win a series at Marshall. A sweep would be a lot better because it would give Coastal more RPI cushion and further help it in the Sun Belt standings (its currently in a tie for seventh, but can finish as high as fourth), but the Chanticleers are operating with an elite strength of schedule (12th overall and fourth in non-conference play) and are in decent RPI shape in a good conference. One might ask what the difference between Coastal and Maryland (another team in a solid conference that has a solid RPI but is buried in the conference standings) is and that’s probably a fair question, but the Sun Belt is better than the Big Ten, Coastal’s schedule has been much better and Coastal still rates No. 15 in KPI. They’re bubbly, to be sure, but I think the Chants are also clearly ahead.
James Madison (30-20, 15-12; RPI: 47; SOS: 37): JMU went 2-1 last week at home against Marshall and dropped 10 spots in RPI. That’s got it looking relatively bubbly right now. The good: the Dukes are still in the top 50, are tied for fifth in the Sun Belt standings and have strong SOS numbers (No. 4 non-conference SOS). The bad: their RPI is only so-so, they’re 7-14 in quads 1 and 2 and have five quad 4 losses, their KPI is 56 and they have a difficult slate this week (at Virginia Tech, at Troy). They need two wins, at least.
Southern Miss (34-17, 18-9; RPI: 33; SOS: 55): I’m pretty close to locking up Southern Miss, which swept Arkansas State over the weekend. But BoydsWorld.com says the Golden Eagles need two wins this week to ensure a top-45 RPI. So, I’ll hold off, but there’s no reason to sweat this as it stands.
Troy (35-18, 17-10; RPI: 48; SOS: 104): The Trojans slipped last week, going 1-3 against Alabama and Texas State. That didn’t ding their metrics much, but they did slip to third in the Sun Belt standings. This week’s finale against James Madison is a must-win to stay off the bubble. Lose this series and it’s hard to argue that Troy has a better resume than JMU, even though the Trojans would finish ahead of the Dukes in the standings if they win just one game this weekend. But every selection metric would favor JMU in that scenario. The Sun Belt deserves more than three bids and Troy would arguably be fine with a 1-2 weekend, but it can avoid a lot of stress if it just takes care of business this weekend at home.
Others
There are some strong at-large candidates from outside the six biggest conferences and a couple of these teams are likely to host regionals. Because of the RPI situation for these teams and conferences, as well as where some of these teams fall in their conference standings, I’m only locking up East Carolina, Indiana State and San Diego, which are assured of top-45 RPIs, according to BoydsWorld.com. Still, several of these teams are comfortably in at-large range.
Lock: East Carolina, Indiana State, San Diego
Should be in: UConn, Dallas Baptist, Louisiana Tech, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, UNC Wilmington
Work to do: Charleston, East Tennessee State, Northeastern, St. John’s, UNC Greensboro, Xavier
Charleston (36-12, 18-5; RPI: 50; SOS: 133): The Cougars are 22-3 since March 27, pushing themselves into the mix and just a half-game behind first-place UNC Wilmington in the Coastal Athletic Association standings. Their metrics, however, are not great. Their RPI needs some work and poor scheduling has them No. 231 in non-conference strength of schedule, a frankly inexcusable number for a mid-major team in such an advantageous location. That said, Charleston is in second place in the standings and owns series wins against UNCW and Northeastern, proving it is one of the two best teams in the conference. That could be important for the bubble discussion.
UConn (29-21, 14-4; RPI: 42; SOS: 30): Death, taxes and UConn in the Big East. The Huskies started the season slowly but have more than found their stride now and are in first place in the conference standings. Nothing about their trajectory or history suggests they’re going to slip up in the next two weeks, but their RPI still has me holding off on locking them up.
Dallas Baptist (38-12, 15-6; RPI: 21; SOS: 76): Could I lock DBU up? Probably. They’re assured of a top-45 RPI and can’t finish lower than third in the Conference USA standings. They’re way closer to the hosting race than the bubble. But I’ll wait for the Patriots to win this weekend’s series at Middle Tennessee State before I move them to the locks.
East Tennessee State (32-17, 13-8; RPI: 52; SOS: 83): ETSU over the weekend lost a tough series at Wofford that I think is going to extinguish its at-large chances. The Buccaneers will finish somewhere between third and fifth in the Southern Conference standings and lost series to both UNC Greensboro and Samford, the two teams its guaranteed to finish behind in the conference standings. The SoCon hasn’t gotten multiple bids since 2012, when the league had a very different composition. Its RPI keeps it in the conversation, but it’s not going to be enough.
Louisiana Tech (38-15, 15-6; RPI: 32; SOS: 81): La Tech over the weekend swept Western Kentucky and now sits in first place of Conference USA. Its RPI also pushed into the top 35. The Bulldogs are fine. One win this weekend at Liberty ensures a top-two finish in the standings and a top-40 RPI.
Northeastern (34-15, 15-9; RPI: 31; SOS: 107): The Huskies have lost consecutive Coastal Athletic Association series to fall well behind UNC Wilmington and Charleston at the top of the conference, but they still have a strong RPI. I’ll be totally honest: I don’t know what to make of this resume. The conference ranks 10th in RPI and Northeastern is clearly the third-best team in the league (not only do the standings say that, it also lost series to both UNCW and Charleston). Does RPI and a 12-9 mark in quads 1 and 2 (including season sweeps of UConn and Boston College) trump conference standings and (presumably) the rankings of the regional advisory committee? It wouldn’t for me, but the selection committee didn’t ask my opinion. Because the resume hinges so strongly on RPI, Northeastern can’t afford any bad losses this week (at UMass-Lowell, Stony Brook).
St. John’s (33-13-1, 13-5; RPI: 51; SOS: 164): The Red Storm’s six-game winning streak came to a crashing halt last week when they took two bad losses before bouncing back to win the series against Seton Hall. That pushed St. John’s RPI out of the top 50. Its metrics are suddenly suspect. KPI rates St. John’s poorly (69) and its non-conference SOS (204) is approaching problematic territory. Things were looking quite good a week ago, but all of a sudden St. John’s is in must-win territory.
UC Irvine (38-10, 18-6; RPI: 23; SOS: 103): UCI is fine. It needs to keep winning games to maintain its RPI, but it doesn’t have bubble trouble this year.
UC Santa Barbara (35-12, 20-4; RPI: 18; SOS: 100): The Gauchos are in an intriguing position in the hosting race thanks to their top-20 RPI and position atop the Big West standings. They can focus on that, not the bubble.
UNC Greensboro (31-18, 15-6; RPI: 57; SOS: 73): The Spartans are one of the best stories in the country. Billy Godwin stepped down as head coach in December to take a job with the Yankees and in the wake of that, UNCG was picked sixth in the Southern Conference’s preseason coaches poll. Interim coach Cody Ellis, who had been on staff for 14 months before he was promoted, has guided UNCG to the cusp of a conference title (it needs Samford to lose one game this weekend against Wofford) and into the bubble conversation. An actual at-large bid is probably just out of reach, however. UNCG needs to find a way to push into the top 50 of RPI. That, when you consider the fact that it would have taken two losses in the conference tournament if it needs an at-large bid, is probably impossible.
UNC Wilmington (35-17, 19-5; RPI: 43; SOS: 72): The Seahawks maintained their half-game lead on Charleston in the Coastal Athletic Association standings and their top-45 RPI with a 3-1 week. They’re in solid shape but probably can’t afford a series loss this weekend at Delaware.
Xavier (28-23, 11-7; RPI: 27; SOS: 7): The Musketeers have won six of their last seven games, eliminating any concerns about their overall record, which had hovered at or below .500 much of the season. Their top-line metrics are outstanding, but the underlying results (5-11 in quad 1, 8-13 vs. quads 1 and 2) may make some uneasy. They’re not unique among bubble teams in that respect, however (TCU is 4-10 in quad 1, for instance). Xavier finishes at home against Villanova (RPI 226) and while it can withstand the RPI hit even one loss would give it, I’d feel a lot better about where it stands if it can get a sweep.
