Moniak’s Place In First-Round High School Outfielder History

---

California prep outfielder Mickey Moniak ranks as the top draft-eligible talent in the Golden State and he’s the top high school position player available in the 2016 draft. The 18-year-old center fielder who can hit, run and defend projects to go off the board among the top five picks, possibly as high as No. 1 overall to the Phillies.

Moniak also stands out for another reason. Depending on the source, his height is listed as either 6-foot-1 or 6-foot-2, while his weight ranges from 170 to 180 pounds. Simply stated, this combination of attributes is not common among high school outfielders drafted among the top five picks, and Moniak ranks No. 5 among the BA Top 500 Draft Prospects.

In fact, Baseball America found just four top-five-overall prep outfielders in the first 51 years of draft history who were 6-foot-2 or shorter and 180 pounds or lighter at the time they were selected. In chronological order they are:

Year	No.	Team	HS Outfielder	HT	WT	MLB PA	WAR
1965	5	Red Sox	Billy Conigliaro	6-0	175	1,239	4.5
1974	3	Phillies	Lonnie Smith	5-9	177	5,952	38.4
1977	1	White Sox	Harold Baines	6-2	175	11,092	38.5
1998	3	Cubs	Corey Patterson	5-10	175	4,499	9.6
Note: McKay Christensen (Angels, 1994, 5-11, 175) and Albert Almora (Cubs, 2012, 6-2, 180) went No. 6 overall in their drafts and fit the criteria.

The cross-section of players above all returned major league value—certainly more than the first-round high school righthanders who weighed 230 pounds or more—but the lack of recent precedent is notable. Specifically, the Cubs selected Corey Patterson at No. 3 overall in 1998, nearly 20 years ago, and that happened two decades after the White Sox made Harold Baines the No. 1 overall pick in 1977.

More often, top-five high school outfielders who weigh about 180 pounds are taller than Moniak—such as the 6-foot-6 Darryl Strawberry—while those who are about 6-foot-2 are bulkier than Moniak—think 200-pound Delmon Young. Both Strawberry (1980) and Young (2003) were selected No. 1 overall in their draft classes, as Moniak could be in his.

The Prep Prototype

Scouts say the lefthanded-hitting Moniak has added strength as a high school senior—and that his actions are loose and athletic—but they also say he presents an average frame with average shoulder width and thin wrists, all of which makes projecting future power a dicey proposition.

While it’s not unusual for prep outfielders with similar physical attributes as Moniak to be selected in the first round, it is unusual for them to go off the board in the top five to 10 picks.

The 2005 draft produced two notable examples of lean prep outfielders who forged successful big league careers. Andrew McCutchen (5-foot-11, 175 pounds) and Colby Rasmus (6-foot-1, 175 pounds) went 11th and 28th overall, respectively, and performed from the moment they turned pro.

However, McCutchen, Moniak and Rasmus are the exceptions. Teams tend to favor taller and heavier high school outfielders when selecting from that demographic in the first round. Going all the way back to the first draft in 1965, the median height for the 170-player sample of first-round prep outfielders is 6-foot-2, while the median weight is 190 pounds. Here are the details, divided into pools based on overall selection:

First-Round High School Outfielders Median Heights And Weights
Overall Pick	HS Outfielders	Height	Weight	BMI
1-5	27	6-2	185	24.4
6-10	30	6-2	191	24.7
11-15	38	6-1	185	24.4
16-20	30	6-1	185	23.8
21-25	27	6-2	190	24.4
26+	18	6-1	190	25.1
Total	170	6-2	189	24.4

BMI in the above table stands for body-mass index, which takes an individual’s height and weight and places it on a scale that can be used to classify members of the general population as underweight, normal or overweight.

The World Health Organization deems a BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 to be in the “normal” range, and those of 25 or greater to be “overweight.” Unsurprisingly, no player in the first-round prep outfielder sample classifies as “underweight,” which would require a BMI of less than 18.5, and nobody comes close.

Teams have shown a moderate preference for selecting high school outfielders in the “normal” BMI classification in the first round. They selected them in 97 of the 170 instances, or 57 percent of the time, whereas 43 percent of the first-round selections fall in the “overweight” category.

Note that professional athletes are obviously better proportioned than members of the general populace who are deemed overweight. For one thing, the athlete’s extra mass is more likely to be muscle than fat when compared with the man on the street. That’s why I will alter the classifications slightly for this examination, with “lean” substituting for “normal,” and “stout” replacing “overweight.”

While using 25 BMI as a dividing line is admittedly blunt, the results are illustrative. Roughly half of the first-round prep outfielders have reached the majors from both the “lean” and “stout” groups. What’s more, both groups have produced at a similar rate once reaching the majors. The median value for Wins Above Replacement, as estimated by Baseball-Reference, for both groups is about 4.5, while the median batting average is about .260 and the median OPS about .730.

Classifying The Field

Let’s take a closer look at the under-25 BMI group, with an emphasis on players who have accumulated 15 or more WAR. Remember these are listed heights and weights at the time they were drafted:

Year	No.	Team	“Lean” HS Outfielder	B	HT	WT	BMI	WAR
1987	1	Mariners	Ken Griffey Jr.	L	6-3	185	23.1	83.6
1991	13	Indians	Manny Ramirez	R	6-1	185	24.4	69.2
1974	18	Royals	Willie Wilson	R	6-3	195	24.4	46.0
1980	1	Mets	Darryl Strawberry	L	6-6	180	20.8	42.0
1979	6	Cardinals	Andy Van Slyke	L	6-2	190	24.4	41.2
1977	1	White Sox	Harold Baines	L	6-2	175	22.5	38.5
2005	11	Pirates	Andrew McCutchen	R	5-11	175	24.4	38.4
1991	16	Blue Jays	Shawn Green	L	6-3	170	21.2	34.5
1968	17	Giants	Gary Matthews Sr.	R	6-2	185	23.8	30.1
1990	24	Expos	Rondell White	R	6-1	185	24.4	28.1
1999	1	Rays	Josh Hamilton	L	6-4	200	24.3	28.1
2002	20	Twins	Denard Span	L	6-1	175	23.1	25.2
1992	19	Blue Jays	Shannon Stewart	R	6-1	185	24.4	24.8
2005	28	Cardinals	Colby Rasmus	L	6-1	175	23.1	17.3
2005	12	Reds	Jay Bruce	L	6-3	195	24.4	15.8
1973	14	Mets	Lee Mazzilli	B	6-1	175	23.1	15.6
			Average		6-2	183	23.5	36.2

The average height and weight of the entire 97-player “lean” sample is 6-foot-2 and 182 pounds (23.4 BMI). Their median draft position is No. 15 overall, while 55 of the 97 (57 percent) are lefthanded batters or switch-hitters.

Four No. 1 overall picks fall in the 15-WAR-and-up “lean” category, including the Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., plus Darryl Strawberry, Harold Baines and Josh Hamilton. Sixteen of the 52 “lean” body types (31 percent) who have reached the majors have returned at least 15 WAR.

Notable prospects and young players who fall in the “lean” BMI range include Christian Yelich (Marlins), David Dahl (Rockies), Albert Almora (Cubs), Lewis Brinson (Rangers), Byron Buxton (Twins) and Kyle Tucker (Astros).

Now for the top WAR earners, with at least 15 for their career, for those high school outfielders with a BMI of 25 or greater at the time they were drafted. Keep in mind that this list is shorter mostly because the pool of candidates is smaller.

Year	No.	Team	“Stout” HS Outfielder	B	HT	WT	BMI	WAR
1993	20	Twins	Torii Hunter	R	6-1	190	25.1	50.0
1971	15	Red Sox	Jim Rice	R	6-1	200	26.4	47.4
2009	25	Angels	Mike Trout	R	6-1	200	26.4	41.0
1974	3	Phillies	Lonnie Smith	R	5-9	177	26.1	38.4
2007	14	Braves	Jason Heyward	L	6-2	198	25.4	31.9
1997	5	Blue Jays	Vernon Wells	R	6-0	195	26.4	28.7
1977	26	Mariners	Dave Henderson	R	6-2	210	27.0	27.6
1978	14	Angels	Tom Brunansky	R	6-4	210	25.6	21.8
1993	7	Red Sox	Trot Nixon	L	6-2	195	25.0	21.3
1990	10	Yankees	Carl Everett	B	6-0	190	25.8	20.4
1969	1	Senators	Jeff Burroughs	R	6-1	200	26.4	17.6
			Average		6-1	197	26.0	31.5

The average height and weight for the entire 73-player “stout” sample is 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds (26.3 BMI). Their median draft position is No. 14 overall, while 33 of the 73 (45 percent) are lefthanded batters or switch-hitters.

Eleven of the 34 “stout” body types (32 percent) who have reached the majors have returned at least 15 WAR, so in yet another way, the “stout” group is indistinguishable from the “lean” group of first-round high school outfielders.

Notable prospects and young players who fall in the “stout” BMI range include Randal Grichuk (Cardinals), Clint Frazier (Indians), Austin Meadows (Pirates) and Trent Clark (Brewers).

Implications For The 2016 Draft

The 6-foot-2, 190-pound high school outfielder has become more or less the first-round prototype, but in reality, first-round prep outfielders who are 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds with a 23 BMI reach the majors at virtually the same rate and provide virtually the same return on investment as first-round prep outfielders who are 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds with a 26 BMI. They even share roughly the same median draft position.

For whatever reason, the “stout” group tends to feature a higher percentage of righthanded batters, though the results do not indicate that players from one group or the other are more likely to play center field in the majors.

Thus scouting a high school outfielder’s body type may not be nearly so important as scouting his tools and competitive makeup. Therefore, Moniak’s singular body type would appear to present no added risk, relative to the overall success rates for prep outfielders, for the club that drafts him.