MLB Rookie Rankings: Skenes, Cowser Favorites To Win NL, AL ROY

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With just three full weeks of games remaining in the 2024 season, the Rookie of the Year races are taking shape.

In this post, we rank the top rookie performers to date, while factoring in how we expect them to perform in September.

Eight of the top 20 rookies have Prospect Promotion Incentive eligibility attached. Any PPI-eligible prospect who wins AL or NL Rookie of the Year earns his club a draft pick after the first round in 2025.

1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates

Skenes ranks second with a 2.13 ERA among all starting pitchers with at least 100 innings this season. His 2.75 FIP, which expresses his strikeout, walk and home runs rates on an ERA scale, ranks third. Skenes’ dominance extends farther than that. In the integration era, his adjusted ERA+ of 198 ranks third-best for a 22-or-younger pitcher in a season of at least 100 innings.

2. Jackson Merrill, OF, Padres (PPI ELIGIBLE)

The seventh high school shortstop drafted in a 2021 first round overflowing with them, Merrill has a clear case to this point as the best of the bunch. He finished last season as a shortstop at Double-A and began this one as the Padres’ center fielder. The 21-year-old has taken to his new position defensively while hitting for average, producing power and delivering key hits.

3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers

Chourio has his sights set on becoming the third MLB hitter ever to go 20-20 in his age-20 season. The last to do it was Mike Trout in 2012. Since June 1, Chourio has quietly been one of the most productive MLB hitters. His .319/.375/.553 batting line has produced a .929 OPS that ranks 10th among qualified hitters in that time.

4. Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Winn has kept up the pace all season as the Cardinals’ starting shortstop. The 22-year-old is a strong defender and solid-average hitter who began the year as St. Louis’ No. 9 hitter and graduated to leadoff man by June.

5. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Steady offensive production and Gold Glove-caliber defense in Baltimore’s spacious left field make the 24-year-old the AL Rookie of the Year favorite.

6. Tyler Fitzgerald, SS, Giants

The Giants optioned Fitzgerald to Triple-A three times this season before he seized the big league shortstop job in July. The 26-year-old has hit .306/.357/.589 with 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 49 games following his June 28 callup.

7. Austin Wells, C, Yankees (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Sometimes it takes longer for catchers to find their footing in MLB as hitters. That was true for Wells—to an extent. He didn’t hit much in the first half, but the 25-year-old has an OPS near .900 in the second. Wells frames well and has crept up the Yankees’ lineup, batting cleanup on many nights.

8. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs

The 30-year-old Japanese import has exceeded expectations. He leads all rookies with 153.1 innings and 155 strikeouts. His 2.99 ERA ranks third among rookie starters with at least 50 innings.

9. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox

Abreu has produced offensively in a strict platoon for Boston this season, making 85 of 90 starts against righthanded starters. His high rate of offensive production and strong glove in right field stand out.

10. Michael Busch, 1B, Cubs (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Busch has held down first base in Chicago as one of the better overall hitters in this rookie class. He trails only Jackson Merrill, Jackson Chourio and Colton Cowser in terms of OPS by a rookie with 400 plate appearances.

11. Joey Ortiz, 3B, Brewers (PPI ELIGIBLE)

The Brewers added Ortiz in the offseason when they traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. The 26-year-old pairs strong command of the strike zone with strong range in the field. Ortiz has played third base almost exclusively but could move to shortstop as soon as next season.

12. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees

Just two starters have a higher walk rate than Gil this season, but he makes it work with swing-and-miss stuff and more durability than expected from a pitcher who totaled about 30 innings combined in 2022 and 2023.

13. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, Braves

A two-way player at Nebraska, Schwellenbach required Tommy John surgery after being drafted in 2021. A year and a half after getting back on the mound in 2023, he was taking regular turns in the Braves’ rotation. Schwellenbach has been a revelation, pitching to a 3.69 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate through 92.2 innings.

14. Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers

Stone leads the injury-wracked Dodgers rotation with 25 starts, 140.1 innings and also 11 wins. Wins can be distributed randomly, but Stone has helped himself by dealing one shutout and six other starts of seven innings.

15. Mason Miller, RP, Athletics

Miller is the hardest-throwing pitcher in MLB this season with an average velocity of 100.8 mph. He leads all relievers with at least 50 innings with a 42% strikeout rate and 32.9 K-BB%. His 2.02 FIP ranks third.

16. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Astros

Arrighetti has shown off swing-and-miss breaking stuff to post one of the highest strikeouts rates—27.5%—by a rookie starter. He began to round into form in late June. In 11 starts before a Sept. 4 blowup, Arrighetti has a 3.12 ERA to go with 86 strikeouts in 66.1 innings.

17. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/SS, Red Sox (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Rafaela’s versatility stands out, as he has more than 60 starts at both shortstop and center field. While he swings at everything and has not been an overall asset offensively, Rafaela has hovered near average at the plate since June.

18. Justin Martinez, RHP, D-backs

When closer Paul Sewald faltered, Martinez was ready to pitch the ninth for the D-backs. Like Mason Miller, Martinez averages 100 mph and can get hitters out in the zone.

19. Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers (PPI ELIGIBLE)

Langford has been a solidly above-average hitter over his past 75 games, though the overall batting line is ordinary, especially for a player limited to left field and DH. Perhaps most surprising is his elite sprint speed and 12-for-15 showing in stolen bases.

20. James Wood, OF, Nationals

Wood shined at Triple-A for half the season and has shown stellar bat speed and hard-hit data in MLB. As his strikeout rate decreases, his output will increase.