MLB Rookie Of The Year Watch: 2024 AL, NL Favorites On July 2
Image credit: (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
What was true in our May 15 Rookie of the Year Watch remains true today:
The National League rookie field is strong—and getting stronger—while the American League corps of first-years is not as distinguished.
In the first six weeks of the 2024 season, Japanese imports Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominated ROY talk. Since then, Yamamoto has gone on the injured list with a strained rotator cuff, while Imanaga’s ERA ballooned to 5.63 in his last seven starts.
National League Rookie of the Year Race
1. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
307 PA: .294/.328/.464 (128 wRC+), 12 HR, 9 SB
Four high school players drafted in 2021 have reached the major leagues. Two of the four were Padres draftees.
Merrill and James Wood were San Diego’s top two picks three years ago. Both reached MLB this season as 21-year-olds, Merrill making the Padres’ Opening Day roster.
Adding to the degree of difficulty, Merrill had just 46 games of experience above Class A and won the Padres’ center field job despite having made zero pro appearances at the position.
Merrill has weathered peaks and valleys, just like any rookie, but is coming off an incendiary June in which he hit .320/.346/.651 with nine home runs in 28 games. His 183 wRC+ ranked 15th best among all qualified hitters for the month.
Add it all up—his youth, his adaptability, his production—and Merrill has a compelling case as the No. 1 overall rookie this season.
2. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
52.1 IP: 2.06 ERA, 70 SO, 10 BB, 6 HR
Skenes wasted no time showing why he was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and the best pitching prospect in more than a decade.
Skenes made his debut on May 11 and has thrown seven quality starts in nine tries through July 1. He does everything well.
He has premium velocity with good breaking and offspeed stuff. Here is where Skenes ranks among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings this season:
• First in fastball velocity: 99.2 mph
• Fourth in swing rate: 53.1%
• Sixth in in-zone miss: 19.7%
• 10th in swinging strikes: 14.1%
• 19th in first-pitch strikes: 67.3%
• 39th in chase rate: 30.6%
Skenes has the stuff, competitiveness and mental makeup to be an ace and factor in multiple Cy Young Awards races.
3. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs
85 IP: 3.07 ERA, 84 SO, 14 BB, 10 HR
Regression comes for everybody.
Nobody expected Imanaga to sustain a sub-1.00 ERA, especially as opposing hitters gained familiarity with his unique release characteristics and the warmer weather aided fly ball distance.
Since the May 15 update, Imanaga has made seven starts. The difference has been night and day
| First 8 Starts | Last 7 Starts | |
| IP | 46.2 | 38.1 |
| ERA | 0.96 | 5.63 |
| SO% | 28% | 20% |
| HR/9 | 0.58 | 1.64 |
| HR/FB | 5.3% | 11.1% |
This is typical for all mortal pitchers. They go through strong periods and less strong ones. The real Imanaga lies in the middle.
American League Rookie of the Year Race
1. Mason Miller, RHP, Athletics
18.1 IP: 1.96 ERA, 14 SV, 64 SO, 13 BB, 3 HR
No American League rookie has separated himself from the pack.
Miller was the pick in mid May and remains the pick today, though the Rookie of the Year field has narrowed.
Miller’s strikeout rate remains elite—37.7% since May 16 to rank eighth among relievers—but his walk rate has crept up in the past month and a half, while a few ill-timed home runs contributed to a 2.95 ERA and two blown saves in that span.
That’s life for any closer and nothing to be concerned about for Miller. As long as he is healthy—and he’s still averaging north of 100 mph—he is an elite young closer.
2. Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
265 PA: .223/.309/.442 (113 wRC+), 12 HR, 5 SB
Cowser made the Orioles’ Opening Day roster and started hot when first given an everyday role.
Since then, the 24-year-old has a .285 on-base percentage, but he has found ways to contribute with power production and defensive value that might earn Gold Glove consideration.
Cowser has started most often in left field but has started games in center and right, too. Defensive metrics grade his play favorably, with Statcast outs above average pegging him as the third best among outfielders.
While Cowser hit just .197 over the past month and a half, he belted six homers in 41 games, with an isolated slugging near .200.
Cowser’s glove will keep him in the mix, but now with fellow rookie Heston Kjerstad in Baltimore, the Orioles have five viable outfielders on the roster competing for playing time.
3. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
85.2 IP: 3.15 ERA, 99 SO, 45 BB, 7 HR
Gil helped keep the Yankees afloat while Gerrit Cole missed April, May and most of June. Gil’s 2.03 ERA in 80 innings while Cole was on the injured list was a big reason for the Yankees’ hot start.
Gil has one of the highest walk rates among starting pitchers, but he mitigates that with a 28% strikeout rate that ranks 15th-best among starters with 50 innings.
Gil may be a rookie, but this isn’t his first rodeo. He made his major league debut with 29.1 innings in 2021 but had Tommy John surgery early the next season, which limited him to 29.2 total innings in 2022 and 2023.
The 26-year-old will soon triple his innings total from the past two seasons combined and will have one of the more closely monitored workloads in the second half.
Rookie Power Ranking
1. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres
2. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates
3. Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs
4. Joey Ortiz, 3B, Brewers
5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers
6. Gavin Stone, RHP, Dodgers
7. Mason Miller, RP, Athletics
8. Jared Jones, RHP, Pirates
9. Colton Cowser, LF, Orioles
10. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees
Three to watch: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Twins; Jackson Chourio, RF, Brewers; and James Wood, OF, Nationals
