MLB Prospects Hot Sheet Chat (4/30/19)

Image credit: Luis Urias (Photo courtesy of Jorge Salgado)

Josh Norris Hot Sheet Chat (4/30/19)

Josh Norris: As Main Source might say — Vamos a Hablar … let’s chat.

Frederick (Boston): 

What do you make of Cavan Biggio’s start? Can you chalk it up to just a hot start or the new ball at AAA or is this a continued progression from last year. Does he have a chance to crack the top 100?

Josh Norris: Second part first: We are meeting this afternoon (probably right after this chat) to discuss our next Top 100 update. Biggio, who is off to a smashing start, will obviously be in the discussion for entry into the list. First part second: This is going to be a battle we fight all year. We all anticipated the new baseball at Triple-A causing offensive explosions, but this is obscene, and it might get worse when the weather warms up in the East. If this change is permanent, power is going to become very difficult to project. I was discussing this last night with an evaluator and came to the conclusion that you should take whatever home run output you think the player might have, then add 10. Side note: I bet the offensive explosion offsets any gains in pace of play in the minor leagues.

Molly (Burlington): 

With all the publicity and hype around the debut of Vladdy Jr. due to him being one of the best prospects in sometime, do you see the same sort of thing happening with Wander Franco in a few years? Basically do you see Franco as being a Vlad level prospect by the time he debuts?

Josh Norris: In a few years? Why not now? Franco is obviously a different type of prospect than Vladdy, but he’s already that caliber. He’s one of the few prospects in the minor leagues for whom I’d shed my media credential and pay money go see in-person. Barring anything silly, he’ll be the No. 1 prospect on our Top 100 at season’s end (or at least he’ll have my vote)

Tim (Omaha): 

Nice start to the year for Dylan Carlson; what sort of offensive upside is possible?

Josh Norris: He’s slowed down some since the scorching start, but things are looking good for Dylan Carlson (a Matt Eddy favorite). There are evaluators out there who believe, if everything clicks, you’re looking at a .270-.280 hitter with 10-20 bombs and average defense in center field. Pretty darn good outcome, if you ask me.

Reds Fan (Cincy): 

Taylor Trammell is finally starting to tap into his raw power in games. With his patience and approach is Michael Brantley a good comp for him at full maturity? Can he be a guy a consistent 20/20 guy who slashes .300/.375/.475 in the majors while playing a passable CF?

Josh Norris: Interestingly enough, the scouts we’ve talked to about Trammell see him as a better fit defensively in center field than in left field. He projects as a 60 runner with above-average power and on-base skills. I’m not one to make comparisons, but he sounds like a guy who can do a lot for a team on both sides of the ball.

Cy Mature (Cooperstown): 

Mize, Mize, Mize! Casey in Detroit this September? How many innings will the Tigers let him throw this season?

Josh Norris: I’m not sure about the innings cap—teams tend to keep those pretty secret, and the innings you see during the regular season don’t reflect what he threw on the backfields in spring training—but if he keeps performing like this and the Tigers see fit to start his clock, then I can definitely see him being big-league ready by Sept.

Best Braves Position Prospect? (Atlanta): 

The Braves are loaded with both high end pitching and hitting. Of the position players, Austin Riley was seen as the best of the bunch. Has that started to change a month into the season? After a slow start Riley is starting to heat up; however, Drew Waters and Cristian Pache have both been crushing AA pitching at age 20. How close are the three now bunched together? Are all three going to be top 25-35 prospects with graduations?

Josh Norris: Of note, I am excited to see some combination of the Braves young pitchers this week and weekend when Gwinnett comes to Durham for five games. That roster has Allard, Toussaint, Wilson, Wright … and Riley. Speaking more toward the position players, we’ve spoken to some scouts this year about Pache and Waters, and the consensus seems to lean toward Pache being more of a regular than Waters. Pache has extremely loud tools, and the power is *really* beginning to develop, perhaps at the eventual sacrifice of average, with stellar defense in center field. Waters has tools, including potential plusses for footspeed and raw power, but there are holes in his game he needs to close—namely plate discipline.

Matt Miller (Canada): 

Word is that Marco Luciano is struggling with off speed. I know he is young, but any worries that this continues through the minors?

Josh Norris: He will play all season long at 17 years old, so I am not particularly worried about anything with him unless he gets hurt. As the saying goes, development is not linear. Not everybody can be Vladdy and Wander and mashing under the lights before they turn 18.

V (Canada): 

kirby sneads upside?

Josh Norris: From what we hear, not very high. His arm action is stiff enough to limit the effectiveness of his breaking ball, which certainly harms his ceiling.

Colton Welker (Free me into the Top 100!): 

Thanks for chatting with us today. When will I be freed into the top 100? I’ve hit everywhere I’ve played but have always been discounted for playing in hitter friendly parks. After starting the year slashing .349/.394/547 with a 16% k rate playing in the Eastern League in April, have I started to convince scouts that my hit tool translates everywhere and will hit for at least above average (55) power as my body matures.

Josh Norris: There are multiple Colton Welker questions in this chat in re: Possible inclusion in the Top 100. Again, that discussion will be taking place in roughly 30 minutes. Welker’s name will be brought up, and yes, he has benefited from playing in two launching pads (and he’ll get another one in Albuquerque when he moves to AAA), but there are scouts out there who believe his swing will translate to the big leagues and allow him to be a useful piece.

Ryan (DC): 

How has the introduction of the MLB ball into AAA and subsequent offensive barrage affected your thinking when putting together the Hot Sheet and/or Top 100 rankings?

Josh Norris: It’s a little too early for it to have had an effect on The Top 100 list, but yes, it absolutely affected my thinking on this week’s Hot Sheet. There were two more guys this week in AAA who hit 6 home runs this week—Kevin Cron and Jacob Scavuzzo—but neither made the list. Part of the reason for their exclusion was because of the ball in AAA, specifically the way the ball has been flying in the PCL, and even more specifically, El Paso.

Bobby (Sacramento): 

Do you have any updates on Chris Rodriguez and what his current injury is?

Josh Norris: Unsure on the injury, but the stuff is absolutely legit. We’re talking about a potential 70 fastball and potential plusses with his offspeed stuff as well. Now he needs to stay healthy, which has quite clearly proved a challenge.

Joe (CT): 

Alec Bohm is really heating up in Low A ball. Where can he end up this year and how good can he be?

Josh Norris: In all honestly I’ll repeat myself here and say he really needs to be in High A before we can judge it. That said, he is getting middling or better reviews for his play with Lakewood. He should have the power to stick at third base, but it might not be blow-away power and there are serious questions about him staying there defensively.

Nate Pearson (Dunedin): 

Clearly I am too good for HiA, I would like to know what you see my ceiling and floor being. Are there any good major league comps for my best and worst case scenarios?

Josh Norris: I’m still not one for comps, but the ceiling on Pearson is rather high, something on the order of mid-rotation starter. He could also be a closer if he goes that route.

Josh Norris: All right, peeps. Sorry I couldn’t get to everyone, but it’s time to get ready for the Top 100 meeting. As Biz Markie might say: Peace, party people, ha ha, see ya later.