MLB Playoffs 2023: Trends Suggest Starters Won’t Pitch Deep Into Games Much Longer
Image credit: ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 18: Max Scherzer #31 of the Texas Rangers pitches during Game 3 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Wednesday, October 18, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Tonight, we get the type of playoff game we anticipate all year: a Game 7, do-or-die, advance to the World Series or head home for the offseason.
Game 7s of the MLB Playoffs are games where almost everyone is available in the bullpen. You worry about the World Series once you get there.
But as Cristian Javier and Max Scherzer take the mound, this is not likely to be a matchup of starting pitchers who duel deep into the night.
As good as Javier has been as a postseason pitcher (6-1, 2.08), the Astros have made it clear that they don’t want him to face too many batters too many times. It’s hard to make this clearer than when Javier was lifted after six innings and 20 batters faced while working on a no-hitter against the Phillies in Game 4 of last year’s World Series.
This postseason, he was pulled after five innings of a one-hit shutout in a win over the Twins. In 75 career regular-season starts, he’s worked seven innings only five times.
If you want to complain about how narratively less enjoyable it is to watch a four-pitcher World Series no-hitter than one thrown by a single pitcher, I can’t argue the point. Unfortunately, reality and storylines are in stark conflict here. But MLB teams are paid to win games, and by pulling Javier when they do, the Astros are 4-0 in his four postseason starts. It may be less fun, but it’s worked.
Scherzer is coming off an injury, and was rocked in his first postseason start this year, but even he wouldn’t be expected to work deep into the game, even if he was still Scherzer in his prime. Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of the 21st century. He has made 23 postseason starts. Only once has he worked past seven innings in a postseason start (7.1 innings, 2014). In his last seven postseason starts (stretching back to 2019), he’s gone past five innings only once.
So if you’re just hoping to watch a great baseball game, the hope for tonight is not that we’ll see something to rival Jack Morris and John Smoltz’s 1991 World Series Game 7 duel. It’s just that the two starters will leave with the score relatively close.
I know there’s a good chance you’re upset about how starting pitchers have been devalued. You wish that we could go back to the mano y mano battles of the past.
I do understand where you’re coming from. But I have a frustrating stat to share with you. Managers and front offices (as usual) actually have a pretty good idea of what they are doing when they head to the mound in the fifth or sixth inning to pull their starter, even when that starter seems to be cruising along.
As we head to Game 7 of the ALCS and Game 6 of the NLCS, there’s a clear and obvious reason why managers are pulling starting pitchers in the fifth or sixth inning, rarely letting even aces get to the seventh inning.
They want to win.
And the winning strategy (usually) is to get your starter out of the game somewhere not too long after they face 18 batters. Now this isn’t a hard and fast rule that can’t be tweaked. There is some feel involved in these decisions. If the bullpen is particularly gassed (or ineffective), or if they have a big lead, a manager may try to stretch another few outs out of his starter, but that’s the difference between a pitcher going five innings or six and once in a while seven, not eight or nine.
Nowadays, if 1968 Bob Gibson was plucked out of a time machine and sent to the mound, he’d likely be heading to the showers before the eighth inning began.
Yes, this does risk having a reliever over-exposed by facing the same team for a third or fourth time in a series. But managers manage these games to win today and worry about tomorrow when it comes. The risk of letting a starter go deep is usually too much to ask.
In 34 postseason games this year, only six times has a starting pitcher worked seven innings. Not only have we not had a complete game, we have yet to see a starting pitcher retire a batter in the eighth inning of any postseason game this season.
It’s not because modern-day pitchers are too soft. It’s not because all these managers and front offices have suffered a collective hallucination.
These hitters are too dangerous. Lineups are now stacked at the top in ways that seemed silly just a couple of decades ago. Gone are the days of the light-hitting speedster in the lead-off spot. This postseason, pitchers have had to deal with Kyle Schwarber, Jose Altuve, Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuna, Mookie Betts and Marcus Semien as the first batter in the order.
Teams want to get their best hitters more plate appearances. That’s meant that when a pitcher gets into the fifth or sixth inning, their manager has to decide whether he wants to risk his opponent getting a chance to send his best hitters to the plate with a big advantage or turn to the bullpen.
When the managers decide to risk it, the hitters have generally made them pay. When a hitter faces a starting pitcher for a third time in a game this October, they are hitting .306/.376/.541. Starting pitchers have a 5.67 ERA when facing a 19th batter and beyond this postseason.
Those are incredibly stark numbers, because you have to remember that no back-of-the-rotation starter is even getting a chance to face a hitter a third time. These are the stats of the most successful starting pitchers.
The ones who got the chance to face 19-27 batters in a game are the ones who have been mowing down hitters in the early innings. Before they flipped a lineup a third time, these 21 starters have held these same hitters this postseason to a .228/.283/.383 slash line.
Effectively, these pitchers have turned everyone into Daulton Varsho the first two times through the order, but those same hitters turn into the 2023 version of Cody Bellinger on a third trip through.
But this isn’t to slam these pitchers. These are the starters you need in the postseason. The other 16 pitchers who have made starts this postseason have been awful. Those starters who haven’t been entrusted to face 19+ batters in a game have posted a 9.48 ERA in their starts this postseason. Opponents hit .333/.396/.634 against them.
Having a pitcher who can work six innings nowadays is the mark of an ace. Seven gives a bullpen a useful advantage.
Nathan Eovaldi, Zach Wheeler and Tyler Glasnow are the only pitchers to face 28 batters in a game this postseason (each faced exactly 28 batters). If you lower the threshold to 25 batters faced, you add two more Eovaldi starts, Justin Verlander, Spencer Strider (twice), Jordan Montgomery (twice), Zac Gallen and Pablo Lopez to the list.
It used to be that the complete-game start in the postseason was how an ace left his mark on a playoff series. That’s a relic of an earlier time. Justin Verlander’s complete-game win against the Yankees in 2017 is the last time any pitcher has thrown a complete game in the postseason. But when a modern starter works into the seventh effectively, it provides significant value for teams’ overworked bullpens.
So if Cristian Javier or Max Scherzer gets a quick hook in Game 7, this helps explain why.
But I will point out a hopeful point as well. This isn’t about the devaluation of starting pitchers, it’s just about a refashioning of how they are valuable. If Javier or Scherzer makes it through the sixth, that’s a massive accomplishment, even if it feels like a pale imitation of the starters of earlier times.
Diving Into The Data
Here’s a look at each start from the postseason so far where a pitcher pitched to 19+ batters (saw at least the leadoff hitter for a third time through the order). The number of plate appearances they faced begins with the 19th batter. As far as runs scored, it only charges them for the 19th batter and beyond. So if the 19th batter hit a grand slam, the pitcher would be charged for one run (the 19th batter scoring).
| Game | Pitcher | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ER | R | SF | HBP | WP | Outs |
| ALCS G6 | Eovaldi | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ALCS G6 | Valdez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NLCS G5 | Wheeler | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| NLCS G5 | Gallen | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ALCS G5 | Verlander | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ALCS G5 | Montgomery | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NLCS G3 | Suarez | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ALCS G3 | Javier | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| NLCS G2 | Kelly | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NLCS G2 | Nola | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NLCS G1 | Gallen | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| NLCS G1 | Wheeler | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| ALCS G2 | Eovaldi | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| ALCS G1 | Verlander | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ALCS G1 | Montgomery | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NLDS G4 | Strider | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| ALDS 2 G4 | Urquidy | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NLDS G3 | Nola | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| ALDS G3 | Eovaldi | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ALDS 2 G3 | Gray | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| ALDS 2 G3 | Javier | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| NLDS 2 G2 | Gallen | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NLDS G2 | Fried | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NLDS G2 | Wheeler | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ALDS G1 | Montgomery | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NLDS 2 G1 | Kelly | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| NLDS G1 Strider | Strider | 9 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| ALDS 2 G1 | Verlander | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| ALDS G1 | Bradish | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NLWC G2 | Nola | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| NLWC 2 G2 | Peralta | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NLWC 2 G2 | Gallen | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| ALWC G2 | Gray | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| ALWC 2 G2 | Eovaldi | 7 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| ALWC 2 G2 | Eflin | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| NLWC G1 | Wheeler | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| NLWC G1 | Luzardo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NLWC 2 G1 | Burnes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ALWC G1 | Lopez | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| ALWC 2 G1 | Montgomery | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| ALWC 2 G1 | Glasnow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
