MLB Draft Stock Watch: Checking In On 30 Top Prospects

2. Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

Hitting line: .449/.595/.1.063, 15 HR, 3 3B, 6 2B, 8.7 K%, 22.2 BB%

Bazzana is third in average, third in homers and third in OPS among Division I hitters and has maintained the sort of elite contact rates he’s become known for (15% miss, 10% in-zone miss) while adding more in-game power. He’s already set a single-season high with 15 homers in just 25 games—less than half of the 61 games he needed to hit 11 homers in 2023—and his isolated slugging has leaped from .248 to .594 while he has also managed to lower his strikeout rate and improve his walk rate. There’s simply not much opposing pitchers can do to slow Bazzana down right now. 

3. Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida

Hitting line: .389/.473/.752, 13 HR, 0 3B, 2 2B, 9.9 K%, 12.2 BB%

Pitching line: 2.18 ERA, 6 GS, 33 IP, 32.8 K%, 16.4 BB%, .138 AVG

Caglianone has made significant improvements with his plate discipline early in the season despite more modest improvements in his under-the-hood chase and miss rates. His walk rate is up from 5.3% in 2023 to 12.2% this season, while he has cut his strikeout rate basically in half: from 18.2% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2024. In nine conference games in the SEC he has walked five times and struck out five times, and he’s been significantly better in two-strike counts than his first two seasons. He’s hitting .308/.386/.564 with an 18% miss rate and 41% chase rate in two-strike counts in 2024. That’s compared to a .172/.234/.331 line with a 29% miss rate and 61% chase rate in two-strike counts in 2022/2023.

4. JJ Wetherholt, 2B, West Virginia

Hitting line: .308/.438/.385, 0 HR, 0 3B, 1 2B, 12.5 K%, 18.8 BB%

Wetherholt hasn’t been able to add or subtract much from his profile this spring after hitting the shelf with a hamstring injury that has kept him out of games since February 19. He’s expected to return to the field this weekend as West Virginia takes on Kansas in a three-game series.

5. Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest

Pitching line: 2.89 ERA, 7 GS, 43.2 IP, 49.4 K%, 7.2 BB%, .183 AVG

Burns has been dominant this spring and leads the country or is near the top of the leaderboard in the most meaningful pitching categories. He’s tops among D-I arms with 82 strikeouts and is second behind Hagen Smith with a 49.4 K% and 42.2 K-BB%. Burns has started each week and gone at least 5.1 innings in each outing, and his stuff looks different as well. His average fastball velocity is up nearly two full ticks, from 96.2 mph in 2023 to 98.1 mph in 2024, and he has decreased his slider usage from 41% to 35% in an effort to use his curveball and changeup more frequently. Burns has a 39% miss rate or better with each of his four pitches and is neck-and-neck with Smith for SP1 of the class and a legitimate top-of-the-draft candidate. His most recent outing was his lone true hurdle, as he allowed nine hits and six earned runs—including four homers—against UNC. If he doesn’t let that snowball he should be fine. 

6. Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas

Pitching line: 1.54 ERA, 7 GS, 35 IP, 54.5 K%, 7.6 BB%, .136 AVG

Smith has been lights out this spring and looks like he has improved his body and his delivery in significant ways. He’s fourth in the country with 73 strikeouts but leads all D-I arms with a 54.5 K% and a 47 K-BB%. Smith has not pitched beyond the sixth inning in any of his starts and he’s also not thrown more than 100 pitches in any outing so far this season. Smith’s average fastball velocity is up two and a half ticks from 93 mph to 95.6 and he is throwing all of his pitches in the zone a bit more frequently which has helped lead to a lower walk rate—7.6% in 2024 compared to a career rate in the 13.2-13.5% range. 

7. Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas A&M

Hitting line: .381/.515/.933, 16 HR, 1 3B, 8 2B, 13.4 K%, 19.4 BB%

The transition from the Pac-12 to the SEC has been a complete non-issue for Montgomery, who continues to make progress as a hitter and recently jumped to No. 2 on the home run leaderboard. He has cut his strikeout rate significantly year-over-year and inversely improved his walk rate and now has more walks (19.4 BB%) than strikeouts (13.4 K%) for the first time in his career. He’s two homers shy of matching his single-season best of 18 in 49% of the plate appearances. He’s still chasing changeups and curveballs a bit too often but has significantly improved his contact against fastballs and sliders. Against 92+ mph velocity he is hitting .400/.571/1.267 with an 87% contact rate.

8. Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest

Hitting line: .243/.460/.500, 5 HR, 0 3B, 2 2B, 16 K%, 28 BB%

Kurtz has been hampered by a shoulder injury and he’s also just not performed at the expected clip through his first 21 games of the season. His saving grace is potentially a 28% walk rate that’s No. 1 among qualified D-I hitters and the fact that he seemed to be waking up a bit during last weekend’s series against UNC. He went 4-for-10 in the final two games with a two-homer game on Sunday. Kurtz is still taking quality at-bats and his contact and chase rates are in line with his 2022/23 numbers but as a first base and bat-first profile he’ll need to start getting more results and showing more power.

9. Konnor Griffin, OF/SS, Jackson Prep, Flowood, Miss.

Hitting line: .574/.724/.983, 5 HR, 1 3B, 8 2B, 5.1 K%, 32.6 BB%

Pitching line: 0.42 ERA, 33 IP, 50.8 K%, 8.2 BB%, 

Griffin is the sole prep player in this draft class who gets significant buzz in the top-10 range. He’s done nothing to add any questions to a profile that was already exciting and among the most toolsy in the class, though some scouts have liked him enough on the mound that they might even prefer him as a pitcher. The majority of teams are likely more enamored with his huge upside as a hitter where he has plus raw power and double-plus speed. High school stats are far from meaningful, but Griffin has performed and he’s also stolen 57 bags in 25 games—among the most in the country per Maxpreps. 

10. Seaver King, OF, Wake Forest

Hitting line: .292/.338/.508, 6 HR, 1 3B, 6 2B, 11.5 K%, 4.6 BB%

King’s 2024 performance is perhaps the most meaningful of any first-round college players’ considering his D-II background and he’s been solid but unspectacular through his first 27 games with Wake Forest. The tools are obvious—including 70-grade speed, above-average power and great bat speed and bat-to-ball skills—but it’s clear King has an aggressive approach that might create hit tool concerns when projecting him to the majors. His contact rate this season (81%) is solid but he chases too much overall (34%) and in particular against sliders and changeups. The fact that King should play a premium defensive position helps spread out the risk of his profile, and he remains a fascinating prospect and first-round talent—even if he feels like less of a top-10 lock than he did coming into the season.

11. Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

Hitting line: .288/.420/.577, 8 HR, 1 3B, 6 2B, 27.5 K%, 15.2 BB%

Honeycutt’s strikeout rate has swung like a pendulum in his first three seasons at UNC and after cutting down from 29.7% to 20.4% in 2023 that mark is back to 27.5% so far in 2024. He might simply be the sort of hitter who needs to let it fly and try and maximize his raw power—so far he’s on pace to top his disappointing 12-homer mark from 2023 and he could once again be a 20-20 player with 16 bags already this season. Honeycutt is probably hitting the ball on the ground too often (40.8 GB%) and he is also as aggressive a hitter as he’s ever been with a 31% chase rate and 34% miss rate—both marks are higher than his 2022/23 numbers. Struggles against 92+ mph velocity (.473 OPS, 34% miss rate) will only add to his pure hit tool questions. Like King, Honeycutt’s athletic profile and secondary toolset should buoy his profile on draft day. 

12. Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

Pitching line: 4.02 ERA, 7 GS, 31.1 IP, 37.4 K%, 16.8 BB%, .207 AVG

Dreams of Brecht taking a significant step forward as a pitcher following a full offseason dedicated to baseball have gone largely unanswered so far, and he’s also coming off the worst outing of his season—a three-inning, five-hit, seven-run game against Minnesota. Brecht’s average fastball velocity is down a tick from 97.6 mph in 2023 to 96.3 mph so far in 2024 and he continues to throw far too many balls out of the zone. His 16.8% walk rate is a career-low and his slider has also been less effective overall. Batters have managed a 1.136 OPS and 20% miss rate against the pitch in-zone in 2024 compared to a .529 OPS and 27% miss rate in-zone in 2023. Brecht did work on multiple slider shapes this offseason so it could be a non apples-to-apples comparison that is getting noisy with imperfect data, but in general Brecht’s off-speed has been less dominant so far this year compared to 2023.

13. Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke

Pitching line: 2.83 ERA, 7 GS, 35 IP, 38.5 K%, 16.2 BB%, .163 AVG

Santucci is just a start or two away from topping his previous single-season innings high (41) in college. He’s been difficult to square up as evidenced by his .163 average against and .527 OPS allowed but he has also created plenty of work for himself with below-average control and a 16.2% walk rate. Santucci’s velocity is up a tick across the board with his fastball (94.2 mph), slider (83.5) and changeup (88.5) and his slider usage is up significantly, from 35% in 2023 to 48% in 2024—his most used pitch. 

14. Caleb Lomavita, C, California

Hitting line: .364/.410/.710, 11 HR, 0 3B, 4 2B, 18.8 K%, 3.4 BB%

Lomavita has put up a strong line with an extremely aggressive hitting approach this season. His triple slash would represent career-bests in each category and his 3.4% walk rate is lower than both his 2022 (8.4 BB%) and 2023 (5.3 BB%) marks. After swinging about 49% of the time in his first two seasons, Lomavita is swinging at 54% of the pitches he’s seen so far in 2024, including a 39% swing rate in 0-0 counts compared to a 32% swing rate previously. Lomavita has done a much better job with pitches on the inner third so far this season, which was a question mark entering the year.

15. Kaelen Culpepper, SS, Kansas State

Hitting line: .321/.421/.580, 6 HR, 2 3B, 7 2B, 15.8 K%, 12.8 BB%

Culpepper has been a consistent offensive performer so far this season and his line looks similar to what he produced in 2023. His contact and chase rates haven’t changed significantly year over year, he continues to show some pull-side power and he’s maintained a similar strikeout rate while slightly boosting his walk rate—8.8 BB% in 2023 compared to 12.8 BB% in 2024.

16. Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern

Hitting line: .281/.425/.427, 1 HR, 1 3B, 9 2B, 20.8 K%, 17.5 BB%

The big development for Sirota in the 2023 season was going from four home runs to 18. That was a notable power jump for a player who doesn’t hit the ball especially hard and who also struggled to hit for power with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League in parts of two seasons. He’s off to a slow start in 2024 with a .281 average and .852 OPS which would both represent career lows and just one homer in 24 games. He’s struggled against breaking balls in this stretch with a .160/.323/.240 slash line against that pitch type.

17. Jacob Cozart, C, NC State

Hitting line: .333/.478/.575, 6 HR, 0 2B, 3 2B, 15.9 K%, 21.2 BB%

Cozart is having a career year thanks to a more selective approach that’s led to a 21.2% walk rate—doubling what he did in 2022 and 2023. Cozart has been more patient when ahead in the count compared to previous years and has slightly improved his chase rate—at 21% currently compared to a 24% chase rate in 2022 and 2023. There’s still a bit too much miss against breaking balls (32%) but he has improved against top-end velocities and is hitting .438/.545/.500 with an 83% contact rate against pitches 92 mph or harder.

18. Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State

Hitting line: .438/.500/.714, 8 HR, 0 3B, 7 2B, 16.7 K%, 7.1 BB%

Smith looks like an entirely different hitter this season compared to his 2023 freshman year with FSU. There was plenty made about an improved approach he showed in the Cape Cod League last summer and he has carried that over to the spring. He has cut his strikeout rate significantly from the 28.7 K% he had as a freshman, and that has come with much better swing decisions (26% chase rate in 2024 and 37% chase rate in 2023) and more contact (18% miss rate in 2024 and 29% miss rate in 2023) while also just swinging less frequently (41% swing rate in 2024 and 48% swing rate in 2023). Smith’s approach is entirely different and he is also employing a different posture at the plate with a more crouched stance and lower handset. He’s hitting the ball on the ground more often but his slugging percentage and isolated slugging are still up year-over-year and he’s already at eight homers through 26 games after homering 12 times in 51 games in 2023.  

19. William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS, Baton Rouge, La.

Pitching line: 0.49 ERA, 28.2 IP, 38.5 K%, 10.1 BB%, 

Schmidt has been one of the more consistent up-arrow high school prospects in the class. He has shown a bit more power on his fastball while backing it with one of the better breaking balls in the class. That’s led scouts to thinking he’ll be the first pitcher off the board and potentially a middle-of-the-first round selection. He can keep trending up if he tightens his control and command down the stretch.

20. Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS, Studio City, Calif.

Hitting line: – 

Pitching line: – 

Rainer has had plenty of positive feedback this spring. He has loud tools with power, arm strength and physical projection remaining on his 6-foot-3 frame and a real chance to stick on the left side of the infield. Some scouts think his foot speed will move him to third base while others believe he will pick it well enough to stick at shortstop. While his preference seems to be hitting full time, the fact that he has a tremendously easy arm action and a pair of plus pitches on the mound creates a nice fallback option.

21. Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford

Hitting line: .207/.375/.471, 7 HR, 0 3B, 2 2B, 11.6 K%, 18.8 BB%

Moore got off to a slow start but didn’t face much down-arrow pressure from the industry in on our first round of in-season scouting feedback because of the conviction in his offensive profile. He had an average under .200 through his first 20 games of the season but could be starting to wake up a bit after a 3-for-13 series against Utah with a home run and a 3-for-5 effort on Monday against Texas Tech with his eighth homer of the season. Moore’s strikeout rate is down (16.8 K% to 11.6 K%) and his walk rate is up (7 BB% to 18.8 BB%) and he’s also running an 87% overall contact rate compared to a 74% contact rate in 2023.

22. Josh Hartle, LHP, Wake Forest

Pitching line: 6.68 ERA, 7 GS, 33.2 IP, 21 K%, 6.4 BB%, .308 AVG

Hartle has been hit around this season and was moved from the Friday night starter spot to Saturday in Wake’s recent series against UNC. His walk rate is right in line with his career average at 6.4% but his command has been worse than 2023 and his stuff has simply not fooled hitters. Batters are hitting .308/.365/.510 against him and his overall miss rate has fallen from 35% in 2023 to just 24% in 2024. Both his breaking balls have been less effective as swing-and-miss offerings this spring and a 66% ground ball rate hasn’t helped him get out of damage with a shaky defense behind him. In conference play Hartle has allowed 31 hits in 16 innings with 16 strikeouts and seven walks.

23. Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Pitching line: 0.49 ERA, 28.2 IP, 62.4 K%, 10.1 BB%

Caminiti’s profile has sounded largely the same this spring as it was throughout the summer: he’s an exceptional athlete who moves well on the mound and owns what should be an overpowering fastball at the next level. He’s been up to 98 mph with the pitch and it projects as easily plus with velocity and great life. That heater, delivery, athleticism and his extreme youth and handedness will make him appealing but a club might need to help him get to a more consistent breaking ball at the next level. 

24. Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee

Pitching line: 4.06 ERA, 7 GS, 37.2 IP, 20 K%, 3.8 BB%, .288 AVG

Beam is posting a microscopic 3.8% walk rate this spring and has only walked a pair of batters in two of his seven starts this season, but he’s also missing fewer bats with a 20% strikeout rate that’s four ticks down from the 24 K% he managed in 2023. That seems primarily due to less swings and misses on his fastball and curveball. He generated a 20% miss rate on the fastball in 2023 compared to a 12% miss rate so far in 2024 and he generated a 37% miss rate on the curveball in 2023 compared to just a 13% miss rate with the curve in 2024. The curveball effectiveness could be command-driven, as it seems like Beam has more frequently missed with the pitch middle and up in the zone compared to 2023 when he put it at the bottom and below the strike zone more often. 

25. PJ Morlando, 1B/OF, Summerville (S.C.) HS

Hitting line: .529/.667/.823, 1 HR, 0 3B, 2 2B, 25 BB%, 4.2 BB%

Morlando has earned down arrow feedback early this spring and it seems like that’s because he has such a bat-driven profile and has not wowed offensively as much as the industry would like. Teams who aren’t fully in on the pure hit tool might be more skeptical since it’s difficult to project more raw power coming, though Morlando already has plenty of that at his disposal. The fact that he’ll be 19 on draft day will add to the pressure on his profile and make him more of a polarizing prospect. He’s gotten more back of the first round and later feedback than the top half of the first round range he entered the year with.   

26. Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama

Pitching line: 5.59 ERA, 7 GS, 29 IP, 38.1 K%, 12.7 BB%, .210 AVG

Hess was pitching towards a first round trajectory early in the season but has scuffled a bit of late and allowed four or more runs in each of his first three starts in the SEC—against Tennessee, Georgia and South Carolina respectively. Scouts love the stuff that comes out of his hand—headlined by a mid-80s fastball and mid-80s slider—but he will need to improve his strikes (12.7 BB% in 2024 compared to a 5.5 BB% in 2023) and stack more productive outings throughout conference play. Hess has never started more than eight games in a season or thrown more than 36.1 innings with Alabama, so a full spring as a starter will be key for him to retain and build on his current draft stock. 

27. Trey Yesavage, RHP, ECU

Pitching line: 2.18 ERA, 7 GS, 41.1 IP, 38.7 K%, 7.4 BB%, .174 AVG

Yesavage is sixth in the country with 63 strikeouts and has been one of the most consistent starters so far this spring. Aside from a four-run speed bump against Texas-San Antonio two weeks ago, Yesavage has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start. He’s maintained the 7.4% walk rate he posted in 2023 while upping the strikeout rate from 33.9% to 38.7% while averaging 94.3 mph with his fastball and showcasing a trio of legitimate secondary options. Yesavage has boosted the usage of his low-80s split-change—from 9% to 19%—and it’s now his most-frequently used secondary pitch though he has generated a 50% or better whiff rate on all of his secondaries. He looks like a bonafide first round arm. 

28. Luke Holman, RHP, LSU

Pitching line: 1.38 ERA, 7 GS, 39 IP, 39.1 K%, 8.3 BB%, .173 AVG

Holman’s 1.38 ERA is good for sixth-best in the country and the second lowest mark behind only Texas A&M’s Evan Aschenbeck in the SEC. He quickly took over LSU’s Friday night starter role in his first year with the program and didn’t allow a single run in his first four starts of the season. While he has not thrown shutout after shutout in the first three weeks of SEC play, Holman still has a solid 3.60 ERA in conference. His fastball velocity is a tick down from the 2023 season and is averaging just 92 mph and because of that some scouts wonder if he’s a first rounder or a pitcher to grab shortly after that. His slider and curveball have both been effective breaking pitches with the low-80s slider being his clear preference. Holman’s 8.3% walk rate is solid though he has been more scattered recently. He will need to continue posting throughout conference play to ensure a first round selection in July.

29. Billy Amick, 3B, Tennessee

Hitting line: .367/.453/.789, 10 HR, 1 3B, 6 2B, 17.9 K%, 11.3 B%

Amick’s bat speed, exit velocities and better than expected defensive play at third base this season with Tennessee has plenty of scouts chirping about a first round selection. He’s following up a ridiculous 2023 campaign with Clemson with a strong start in his first year with Tennessee and homered 10 times in his first 25 games. That home run pace has cooled over his last 11 games or so and he has just one conference homer to this point, but no one doubts his raw power and strength in the righthanded batter’s box. Amick’s approach is aggressive and he’s probably going to be a power-over-hit offensive profile so continuing to show in-game power and a chance to stick on the left side of the infield are keys for him down the stretch.

30. Tommy White, 3B, LSU

Hitting line: .319/.406/.580, 9 HR, 0 3B, 4 2B, 8.7 K%, 10.1 BB%

White started as the No. 10 player on our draft board, but his slow start to the season and a limited supplemental toolset has him sliding a bit. Some scouts might not view him as a first rounder, though he has. He homered just twice in his first 18 games of the season, but the power resurfaced as soon as the schedule flipped to SEC competition and he homered in seven of his next 11 games. Overall White has seemingly sacrificed some power for more contact and fewer strikeouts compared to his first two full seasons, but that could be in the process of flipping as we speak. White’s rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and raw power should make him an appealing bat in a draft class that drops off with pure hitters quickly—though he’ll need to finish the season strong like he has in 2022 and 2023.