Minor League Free Agent Market Unfolds Slowly, Too
The frigid temperature of the major league hot stove has become one of the biggest stories of the offseason, but outside the glare of the spotlight, minor league free agents and their representatives also are feeling the chill.
While the Rangers’ signing of Doug Fister for one year and $4 million qualifies as the most notable major league free agent signing of November, the minor league free agent market had been similarly dormant when compared with past years.
“Beyond slow. It’s crawling,” is how one agent who represents multiple minor league free agents characterized the market. “I have had a couple discussions with teams on it. It’s starting to pick up a bit, but it’s like nothing I’ve seen before in eight-plus years.”
Through Nov. 26, roughly 20 minor league free agents had signed contracts for 2018 and had those pacts approved by Major League Baseball as official contracts.* Last year at this time, four or five times as many minor league free agents had signed at the same point in the offseason.
“I think teams are being very aggressive with their top preference guys, and then waiting for non-tenders after that,” said another agent in reference to the major league non-tender deadline, which is Dec. 1 at 8 p.m. Eastern. After all, the best minor league signees tend to be discarded major league players. Dodgers reliever Brandon Morrow is a prime recent example.
Just as industry sources speculated to Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan that front offices are attempting to wait out major league free agents to drive down prices, the same principal could be in play on the minor league market, too.
“I’m guessing it’s a trickle-down effect from the major league market,” a third agent said. “Teams are (emphasizing) ‘delay, delay, delay,’ hoping for players to get desperate and start signing lower deals.”
In recent minor league free agent classes, roughly 60 percent of players end up signing new contracts. While granting that this offseason still is young, only about 3 percent of free agents have signed official contracts so far.
That’s one of the reasons that delay tactics may drive down minor league free agents prices even more than a similar approach at the big league level. For major league free agents, the worst outcome is generally receiving a below-market offer—or at worst signing a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. For minor league free agents, the worst outcome is going unsigned and not being at spring training camp at all.
“Guys are getting offers, but the amounts aren’t what our expectations have been in past years,” said a fourth agent. “Teams are holding out for their guys, and the longer they wait, the more desperate the minor league guys get.
“Especially for first-time (free agents) not knowing the full process and (hearing) your agent saying, ‘Don’t worry, it’s slow right now.’ It’s a hard sell to keep them level.”
—Reporting by J.J. Cooper
* Counting only signings that appeared in Baseball America Minor League Transactions, which are furnished by MLB. Several other minor league free agents this year have undoubtedly reached agreements on pending contracts, but I chose to make a direct year-over-year comparison.
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