Midseason Top 100/Hot Sheet Chat

Alex (Nc): Luke weaver and Harrison Bader have been great surprises... Do you see renewed/higher ceilings for these two now? Especially with weavers mph being a tic higher than expected?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Hello folks, it’s your friendly neighborhood Vince Lara here while John’s plane lands. I’m lucky enough to have the Cardinals’ system for the Midseason Update and I see higher ceilings for both players, but most importantly, people in the know see higher ceilings. Bader has shown more power and the ability to stay in center field, while Weaver’s uptick in velocity is a promising development.

Andy (New York): Carson Kelly on the way to Futures Game. Close to Top 100?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, I think it’s fair to say he was in the conversation. Kelly’s bat is finally catching up to the glove, which is interesting because the Cards converted him from third base. But he’s using the whole field. The way his development was described to me was as a guy who is finally catching up to league level and now trying to pass it by. The Cardinals are thrilled with his progress.

Jim (Chicago): What is Josh Bell's upside?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I think Bell can be 20-homer guy who hits in the .285-.300 range. His defensive is such a limitation however, especially in the National League. For a first baseman, the power might be light but it’s starting to show up this year. So he’s trending the right way.

MJ (Valpo): I'm sure the chat box will be filled with "how close was..." but what about guys like Miguel Andujar, Dylan Cozens, Michael Gettys, Hunter Dozier? All have had resurgences and breakouts!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: True enough! But all have some warts or track records to overcome. For Gettys, for example, I saw him this year at Fort Wayne and his new batting approach, with a back bend to help him stay upright in the box, was troubling because to me, it affected his ability to catch up to even average, elevated fastballs. Dozier is raking, but is coming off a poor year; he was far closer to making the 100 than Gettys, Andujar or Cozens.

John Manuel: Hey guys. Just going to take questions for a few minutes, before boarding for SD.

Philip (San Diego): Would Morejon/Maitan made it if they were eligible?
John Manuel: Of course those kinds of guys would have made it, but since we’re trying to focus on who might get traded this month, we leave draft & July 2 guys out of this exercise. It is frankly more fun that way.

Zoey (Columbia, SC): Would a healthy Ronald Acuna have made the top 100?
John Manuel: JJ was just talking about him the other day as a guy who was in the discussion and didn’t miss by much.

Tim (Arizona): What is Mitch Keller's upside?
John Manuel: Love him; the athleticism, learning curve, loose arm, good size. He’s got the potential to be a guy you want starting a playoff game, first 3 spots in a rotation.

Jeb (IC): The Pirates farm system is absolutely loaded. 6 in the top 75 and that doesn't include Taillon. Is the Pirates system in the top 3?
John Manuel: It is top 5 for sure

Ted (Ohio): Seems like the NL from 2017-2019 is all Cubs and Pirates with all the talent they have in both the majors and minors
John Manuel: Never count out the Cardinals.

Justin (Pittsburgh): How good can Meadows be? Should the Pirates ship McCutchen somewhere when he is ready?
John Manuel: “Shipping out” McCutchen has less to do with Meadows and a lot more to do with money. I love Meadows’ swing, still a bit concerned on the ultimate upside but he’s big enough to learn to hit for power, and I like the feel for the barrel.

Ryan (Jacksonville): Hey John, thanks for the hard work. Question about Mike Soroka. I'm a Braves fan but a little skeptical of him. The numbers look great, but it doesn't seem like anything is really plus for him. Am I wrong? I wouldn't think you guys would put a back end of the rotation starter in the top 100 this early in his career, so I'm curious what you've heard that makes you think he's more. Thanks!
John Manuel: He’s 18 and Canadian with a good frame, arm works, room for projection. I understand skepticism but the point isn’t how he gets outs in the SAL, it’s how he’ll get them in MLB in 3-4 years. He should have been a freshman at Cal; he’s on schedule if not ahead.

JR (Iowa): Isan Diaz has already been moved to 2B. Will he hit enough to be the Brewers 2B in a few years? Even after his recent hot streak he's only batting .256 for the year...
John Manuel: I like Diaz, it’s like a .200 ISO this year, always thought he’d slide to 2b with that body. It’s his first time at full-season ball, let’s see how he adjusts and how he finishes.

John Manuel: Boarding my flight sooner than I figured, back to Vince Lara but thanks for all the interest in the Midseason Top 100 and the chat.

GPT (San Jose, CA): Five Giants in top 100! Haven't seen that in awhile, is the system moving closer to Top 10 status?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: There’s a weird narrative on Twitter that BA doesn’t like or respect the Giants’ system and that couldn’t be further from the truth. We have great respect for Bobby Evans and Dick Tidrow and Brian Sabean and the entire group. We profiled C.J. Hinojosa and Chris Shaw. The Giants like college performers and that has borne fruit.

Jason (Seattle): I was surprised that Luis Urias didn't make the top 100 considering he is performing so well at such a young age. How close was he to the top 100?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not close. There are a lot of potential Top 100 prospects. That said, Urias is having a great year, especially considering age relative to league.

Hank (St. Paul): Odds of Marcos Diplan on the preseason top-100?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’d say very strong. I was fortunate enough to cover some MWL games and though I did not see Diplan I got to talk to folks about him in my travels. He has advanced pitchability and savvy and can touch 98 despite a slight frame.

Roy (EuClaire): Isan Diaz--future Brewer starting SS? Goodness knows we need someone to fill that void!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not sure he stays at short, but man you’ve got to love the bat. I took video of BP at the Midwest League all-star game and one of the consistently loudest cracks came off the bat of Diaz. He’s not a big guy but he’s sturdy and whips the bat through the zone.

Drew (Ohio): Am I wrong to believe edmundo Sosa will eventually be a top 100 prospect
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not necessarily. I like Sosa; his defense is major league quality already. He’s learning how to hit, how to approach at-bats and learning to have consistent at-bats. But the Top 100 is really about the elite guys in the game. That said, he plays a premium defensive position, so that gives him a leg up.

Proswagonist (Liberl): Did Franklin Perez or Albert Abreu garner any consideration for the list?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I can tell you neither really did. I like Abreu. I saw him pitch this year and he was an easy 96 mph. He needs to learn to command his pitches better, but the stuff is there.

Ken (Raleigh, NC): Thank you for the chat. What prospects in the Midseason Top 100 do you see as a potential trade bait and might be with another organization by this trade deadline or next spring?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It really depends. A guy like Martes could go, depending on whether the Astros’ resurgence is real and they decide they need another arm. I don’t believe the Yankees will trade Gary Sanchez. I could see Reynaldo Lopez being traded in a deal for a reliever, such as Aroldis Chapman. Same thing with a pitcher such as Tyler Beede.

Jason (Seattle): If Chris Shaw Continues to hit and make it to majors, will he be traded or move positions? If he moves what position?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Man, I don’t see him changing positions. His time in left field did not go well. He’s a first baseman and an average one at that. If he’s traded, it would hopefully be to an AL team where he can DH and play first.

Casey (Houston): Why is Aj Reed not on the list. Has his performance been that poor?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: No, he was in the majors as of June 21, so he was not eligible. We have a note about that at the top of the file.

Alex (CT): What is currently holding Rosario back from the tops 3 or 4 SS prospects above him? How has his MLB ceiling profile changed recently? Thanks!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It’s just a matter of seeing him do it for a little bit longer than half a year. His ceiling has changed quite a bit. I think it’s fair to say he’s made himself untouchable for the Mets.

Charlie (NYC): Where would Brandon Nimmo have ranked on this list had he still been in Las Vegas?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: He would not have been, in my opinion, in the top 100. He lacks a true plus tool. He’s a decent outfielder, he has some speed, not much power, gets on base at a good clip. But he lacks the profile for a corner outfielder or center field.

Rhett (NC): Kevin Maitan not making the list. I guess the extreme risk won out against his extreme upside?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: No, we are not considering July 2 signees or 2016 draftees. Check the note at the top of the article.

Jim (Daytona): What do you see the Cubs doing with Ian Happ when he's ready? Trade bait? Or do you see them moving a Schwarber, Baez or Soler to make room?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Let’s say, ‘It’s a good problem to have.’ I think the Cubs believe they have the perfect player to replace Ben Zobrist. Zobrist 2.0. Happ can play second base and left field and they’ve tried him in center, but the bat will carry him.

byeon (stl): has reyes' stuff improved or did others just fall?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It’s a matter of him coming back strong and some guys graduating. But Reyes has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, a true dominant pitch package, if he can command it consistently.

Jose (NY): Will Orlando Arcia be an impact player offensively and what is his greatest tool, speed, contact?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I think it’s fair to say we’re split on whether he’ll be an impact offensive player. He’s a tremendous defender, a plus arm to boot. Will he do damage consistently at bat? The jury is out for now.

chase (philly): are there going to be team top 30s as well?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not for Midseason, no. We’ll roll out Top 10s next week for subscribers.

Daniel (Missouri): As if there aren't enough already, which Cardinal pitcher was next closest to making this list? thanks
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yeah, they have a bunch coming too. Without revealing too much, the next ones are Sandy Alcantara and Junior Fernandez, in some order.

Jimbo (Tex): What's the outlook on Michael Gettys? Was he close to the list?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Wasn’t really close, although we acknowledge the uptick in performance. He’s a major league defender already, but his batting approach and style has some risk.

Jim (Berlin, NJ): Junior Fernandez got the bump to High A, but the peripherals in the Midwest seemed ho-hum. What do the Cards know that I don't?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: At that level, it’s more about the tools than results. The Cardinals see a guy with more polish than, let’s say, Sandy Alcantara. It’s also about getting enough innings for everyone. The Peoria staff is packed. Moving up Fernandez allows them to get more regular turns.

Saul (Tampa): Slight dip in pop for Bellinger, with the early-season injury and departure from the Cal league. Is Brandon Belt a fair comp for him, and will he have to wait unitl Adrian's contract runs out after 2018?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: He’s a young guy against advanced competition. No, I dont think Belt is a fair comp. I think he’ll have for more power and yes, most likely he won’t be the regular guy until after the Gonzalez contract expires.

Antonio Sentazela (Hartford): What do I need to do? I have a Sub 2.45 career MILB ERA
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I love Senza—#personalcheeseball alert. I think the only issue was the injuries he’s run into this year. He’s dealing with a shoulder issue now.

Carl (St. Louis): Is Junior Fernandez still a big prospect or has his lack of strikeouts and decreased control lowered his status?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Still a top prospect, but he will probably move down the Cardinals’ list, simply because some other guys have moved ahead. Survival of the fittest.

Josh (Texas): Who do you see as the big risers in the Padres organization? Are Gettys or Paddack getting any consideration? Also, if you included j2 prospects, how close would Morejon be. Thanks.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, I think you’ll see both in the Padres’ top 10 next week, and Morejon would have a shot at their top prospect if included, just based on ceiling, far away as it is.

Bill (Missouri): I know he's far from this list, but what kind of prospect is Ryan Helsley? He was projected as a reliever but has pitched like a starter.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Helsley’s been the best performer on that Peoria staff. Fastball has touched 100. Command has been excellent. He doesn’t have the projectability of his rotation-mates because he’s not a big guy. I think ultimately, he’s a reliever because of his size, but he could be a good on with continued progress.

Dave (Chicago): Who is more likely to stick at second, Calhoun or Happ?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I think Calhoun, only because Happ has the versatility to move around and the Cubs want to do that. The Dodgers want Calhoun to play second base and they say he’s embraced the challenge.

Frank (New York): What do you see as Amed Rosario's ceiling numbers wise? Could he reach 12 homers a year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, I think that’s a reasonable projection.

Chris (Buffalo): If Anthony Alford was healthy and playing better, would he have been ranked higher?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, absolutely. He was lower in an iteration that we changed just before going to press, as they used to say, owing to how much we like his game.

Doug (Sacramento): In your opinion could Hill from the A's bring back a prospect like Happ from the Cubs? Or would Vogelbach be more in line?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’d be stunned if Rich Hill got you Ian Happ. I think Vogelbach and another player would be a decent ask.

Jack (San Jose): Didn't necessarily expect him to make the top 100, but wanted to get your thoughts on Matt Chapman. In my mind, he's a slick fielding third baseman with massive power with legitimate concerns that he'll tap into that power. Is this an accurate assessment and was he close to making the list?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: On the nose assessment. That said, I don’t believe anyone on the staff brought him up as a potential Top 100 guy. Not that that’s a knock, this is an elite group.

Tyler (Calgary): What do you see as the upside of David Dahl, Austin Meadows, and Clint Frasier? Do you see them all as double digit hr's and sb's threats?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I do believe Dahl and Meadows, given good health, will be double-digit HR and SB guys. Not sure if Frazier run as much once he breaks through. It might be just a matter that he’ll have a run-production batting slot, where Meadows and Dahl might hit higher in the order.

Joe (Texas): Was AJ Reed not eligible or did he fall off the top 100? If he was eligible, where would he have been?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not eligible because he was in the majors by our deadline. He’d have ranked top 10 for sure.

Bosa (Ohio): If a cardinals starter got hurt, who do we have a better chance of seeing: Reyes or Weaver
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Oh Reyes for sure. He’s already at Triple-A. But the Cardinals really want him to get the innings he missed while suspended.

Jack (San Jose): Of the big four Red Sox prospects (Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, and Devers), who is the most likely to go at the deadline?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I’d have to say Devers simply because I cannot see the scenario under which they trade Moncada, Benintendi or Espinoza. Maybe for Jose Fernandez?

Larry (Savannah): I know you said no J2 or 2016 draftees on the list, but as a miserable Braves fan that enjoys basically nothing but looking at prospect lists, when is the next update when those guys will be on it? And do you think Kevin Maitan will make it?
John Manuel: John here in the air to San Diego, thought I’d hope back in a bit. Braves fans can look forward to a bonanza, I would guess, in next March’s Top 100. I imagine the Braves will have one of the best Top 10s when those roll out in October though January and of course in late December we send the Prospect Handbook with Top 30 lists to press. We’re starting to gather league top 20 info as well here. So if you like reading about prospects, that’s basically how we have existed for now our 35th year, and there will be plenty of Braves prospects in them.

Ray (Houston, TX): Normally I wouldn't complain about a prospect cracking the first ten of a top 100 list, but HOW exactly does Alex Bregman not make the top five, if not top three? If you had to pick your MiLB player of the year right now, he would be the favorite. He can excel at three infield positions and could probably play in the OF if you asked him to. His bat is a thunderbolt. His plate discipline is Zen-like. His power, no one saw coming. He will be the next phenom to hit Houston not named Correa to get the call. If you'd care to explain his ranking we're all eyes. Have a good weekend, John.
John Manuel: It is kind of rich to complain that a guy ranked No. 8 isn’t high enough, isn’t it? We debated Bregman vs. Swanson for a while, just as we did last year, just as I’m sure the Diamondbacks did at tht etop of the draft last year. We’re pretty high on Trea Turner and J.P. Crawford in these parts, and we don’t shy away from ranking pitching prospects either, so two guys who are in the big leagues (Glasnow and Giolito) plus Alex Reyes are ahead of him. I’d submit Bregman is the current favorite for Minor League Player of the Year, which I think I said in my last chat. He’s got that Albuquerque Swagger and he has special hands that work at the plate and in the field. I bet Bregman and Benintendi are among the highest-ranked players their size in BA history.

Hector (Wyoming): Seems like Kevin Newman has an elite hit tool. He just keeps raking and raking. What is his ceiling?
John Manuel: To me, elite hitters either are like Ichiro and constant batting champions (or threaten for batting titles), or they also have some power. I’m not ready to throw “elite” on Newman because of his modest power. I know I talked to one scout last year who put an Alan Trammell comp on him, but more scouts that I have talked to about him see him as having below-average power with some gap pop. He’s got a .100 ISO as a pro; that points more toward the latter. Without at least average power to the gaps, I don’t know if Newman can be an elite hitter, but he can still be a solid regular if not more. I believe I have likened him to Adam Kennedy in the past and I’ll do it again; that would be a good career, and he has more of a chance to play SS than Kennedy ever did. But elite … no, I’m not there.

Hunter Renfroe (Stuck in the mid-60s): Question: why do so many people think Manny Margot has the better hit tool of the two of us? I mean, sorry I went to college and so am a bit older, but here we are, both in AAA on the same team, and I'm batting 35 points higher than him and leading the PCL in homers, RBI, and XBH. What more do I need to do to impress you guys? Act like Joey Votto and stop swinging? Where's the fun in that?
John Manuel: Kind of silly to ask me about being impressed by Hunter Renfroe, seeing as how I wrote a column about him in 2010 when he was a prep senior and first popped up on scouts’ radars. A) Hunter swings and misses a lot and it’s harder to maintain that level of performance historically with such a spread between your walks and strikeouts; it’s just harder to be consistent that way. (B) He’s always been that kind of hitter. (C) He’s in a great hitter’s park in a great hitter’s league. That said, I’m a Renfroe believer, always have been, always will be. Look forward to him being a productive (if not all-star caliber) right fielder for years. But Margot has a higher floor because he controls the strike zone, plays the more challenging defensive position, steals more bases and is younger. Those are historically good advantages for a prospect to have and mean more than a Triple-A batting average.

Rhett (NC): Surprised to see Braves' Max Fried not make the list. Not enough IP to go on after TJ or is it his age in A ball? With continued success expect to see him in there at the end of the year?
John Manuel: I’m glad to see him back and throwing fairly well, shaking off the rust. He’s the same age virtually as James Kaprielian; I can see an argument for Fried there and one for Kaprielian at the back of the list. Both have shown some injury risks; I’m frankly a bit more in on Kap’s makeup.

Stan (Ontario): I love Richard Urena's game. Is he on the short list of the next group of SS prospects to really emerge?
John Manuel: Yeah, I like Urena as well, he would be on the short list of next shortstops to enter the rankings. He’s had a steady developmental season, no real breakout yet, and I kind of thought that might happen with the new Jays regime moving players a bit more slowly than the previous group. Another Blue Jay who almost made it was Rowdy Tellez; he’s probably a better power profile guy than, say, Jake Bauers or Dom Smith, but those guys are better athletes & defenders, and are hit over power guys rather than power-first like Tellez. But I think more highly of Tellez now than I did even after his fine AFL turn last year, he can hit and has improved a bit defensively. The Jays system isn’t very deep right now but it does have some potentially nice pieces left.

Michael (Haddonfield, Illinois): Max Kepler's up to seven homers for the big club after hitting just one for Rochester this season. Is his power sustainable, and if so, what underlying factors in the minors support his big-league power surge?
John Manuel: His power will be more to the gaps than over the fence power early in his career, but Kepler’s a big guy with a nice swing. I do see his peak for power being in the 20-22 HR range, real above-average home run power at his peak. I see him having a similar career to Nick Markakis but with a bit more home run pop. Incidentally, the Twins’ first-round pick this year, Alex Kirilloff, is definitely Kepler-ish though he may wind up with a bit more power, and he probably runs a bit better.

Scott (Houston): is the ranking of Swanson over Bregman here more due to Bregman having to move from SS to 3B and his current power seeming to be not sustainable at the big league level?
John Manuel: Swanson vs. Bregman … it’s the 2015 SEC all over again. Most of the scouts I have talked to over the years about these two prefer Swanson because of his tools and athleticism. Most of the COACHES I talked to in college about them preferred Swanson; he has that little extra that coaches loved, that competitiveness, that knack for the big moment. I am surprised by Bregman’s power as a pro; maybe I should take that more into consideration than all the evaluators I have talked ato about them over the last couple of years, going back to the 2014 USA Collegiate National Team. But I’ll stick with 2 years of evidence over 3 months.

Bryan (New York): Where does Vogelbach rank among the other top 1B
John Manuel: Vogie is such a tough guy for me to rank. I thought he would have gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft last fall, but I probably was wrong, and the Cubs did protect him. The reports on his defense had been so poor, I thought he was a DH only, and he still may be mostly a DH. He’s certainly a below-average 1B. But the guy can hit and has hit his way back toward the kind of list you’re talking about. AS I said before, though, I like Rowdy Tellez, who get a lot less hype, and I think I prefer Tellez to Vogelbach.

PadsFanSATX (San Antonio, TX): John, what are your thoughts on Renfroe? He's having quite a season showing impressive pop and the ability to barrel the ball up consistently. Why are scouts so high on Aaron Judge, putting him twenty spots ahead of Renfroe when the tools are the same but the numbers favor Renfroe? They're basically the same player. Thanks for taking the time.
John Manuel: I know I have talked Renfroe before; I do think this is a fine point, that Renfroe and Judge are similar. Judge walks more. I have made this point in past BA meetings and don’t always carry the day, but I’ll say it again. Renfroe was drafted higher in 2013, they do have a very similar profile, and I’ve always preferred Renfroe. But I do think there are pro scouts who see it differently.

Carl (St. Louis): How far behind the catchers on this list was Carson Kelly?
John Manuel: Good question; I don’t think we lined it up particularly that way. But I like Carson Kelly, even ranked him ahead of all-star Aledmys Diaz last fall … that may wind up a mistake but I do like Kelly for having solid defensive tools, improving skills and developing power. He’s got the backup catcher profile down, and if he makes enough contact, he could be a starter. He and Chance Sisco as the US catchers in the Futures Game is a fun combination, considering neither caught very often as amateurs.

Dean Gulberry (Jenks, OK): Why has Anderson Espnizoa been getting "hit" as of late? Is he having issues with FB control? I realize he is only 18, but there was chatter that he could be the next Julio Urias and make the bigs by 19.. I can't see that happening..
John Manuel: Sorry if this shows up twice, I got booted off … Short answer is he’s probably tired. I was stunned when Bill Ripken, on our Prospects Show on MLB Network coming into the year, talked about Espinoza moving that quickly, being up in 2017, and I suppose it’s still not out of the question. But We probably all got a bit too excited. He’s not quite physical enough for the grind of a full season, in terms of maintaining his stuff and his delivery.

Jason (Washington): What type of ceiling do you see Victor Robles having? Would he come close to a 15hr and 30sb, along with excellent defense?
John Manuel: I think that’s reasonable, though he may wind up hitting a few more homers than that at his peak. Also, how many guys really steal 30 bags year-in and year-out anymore? The game has gone away from that for whatever reason. I wonder how much of that is credit to pitchers for controlling the running game and how much of it is baserunners who just don’t study it or want to take the pounding like they used to. It’s more of a power-oriented game right now. That’s the kind of thing that makes Jose Altuve special, he still steals a lot of bags but has added the power to his game.

Danny (Danny): Which 2016 draftees or intl free agents would be on the list if eligible? Thanks and great work!
John Manuel: I would guess Maitan and Morejon would be the only international guys who have signed who would be Top 100 guys. As for the draft guys … tough call. I would guess an office consensus likely would include Mickey Moniak, Nick Senzel, Riley Pint, A.J. Puk, Kyle Lewis … probably Corey Ray as well. I don’t know what we’d do with Jason Groome if he signed, or Delvin Perez, but I would probably rank both.

Paco (CT): What kind of numbers can Rosario put up in Queens?
John Manuel: Dude’s still just 20, and it’s cool to see him putting up numbers instead of us always saying, “he’s young for the league, just wait for it.” I don’t see a significant weakness to his game, unless you describe 10-15 HR for a SS as a “weakness.” He’s a first-division starter for sure and has some star potential if he drives the ball more as he continues to grow into his body.

Brian (Philadelphia): I know that scouts don't love Rhys Hoskins, which presumably kept him from the list. But at what point does a guy continually raking at multiple levels start to override the lack of tools/impressiveness to scouts?
John Manuel: I don’t think those things are in opposition. Reading is a home run park; the difference for Hoskins and the reason there is reason for optimism is he has hit before, he hit in the SAL and the FSL, he hit in the Cape Cod League. The odd thing is when he hit 5 HR as a junior at Sacramento State; that was weird. I think his modest athleticism has some fearing he could be another Daren Ruf, and I think those fears are justified to an extent, but Hoskins has more feel to hit than Ruf had. I think he’s legit but more second-division regular in the CJ Cron mold.

John (Ketchikan, AK): Is it Tyler Mahle's stuff that is keeping him out of top 100? Because the production has been undeniable.
John Manuel: This is a good call; not a top 100 guy quite yet but I don’t know that he’s that far away. It’s a big year in A-ball, for me, I wanted to see what he would do in Double-A. He’s only three starts in, but the trends have all been good for him. I would think he’s the next Reds pitcher after Garrett and Stephenson, though I would defer to Reds expert JJ Cooper on that one. If I haven’t mentioned it before, by the way, I loved the Reds’ 2016 draft with Senzel, Trammell & Okey. Like the way that started, a lot.

Niel (Dallas): What have you heard about Dillon Tate's struggles?
John Manuel: JJ talked to two scouts recently who saw down velocity, from peaking at 93 mph to once peaking in the upper 80s. I know he’d had some leg issues this spring but that’s not the guy the Rangers drafted. You’d expect his athleticism to help him right the ship eventually if he’s healthy, but also keep in mind, he hardly pitched as a freshman and was a reliever as a sophomore. This is his second full year as a starter and he’s gotten banged up a bit. Big picture, you have to give him more time.

Bill (Milwaukee): What do you think has happened to Jorge Lopez? Is it the PCL and Colorado Springs getting to him, or is it serious regression?
John Manuel: Sounds like it’s been a bit of both. He’s always had that good curveball, and he seems to have lost that at altitude. That would be the kind of thing that would crush one’s confidence. I think he’ll be fine long-term but it does prompt us to lower our sights for him a bit.

CR (Houston, TX): what are the exact expectation of the top 100 prospects. All future all star candidates?
John Manuel: Ha, no. We would stop at 15-20 in that case … Not all top 100s are created equal. Last year, the talent in the minor leagues as more robust than it is this year. That’s true of draft classes; it’s true of prospect lists when they are professionals. It’s just who we think the best 100 guys are at this point, with the guidelines we spelled out in the intro, and I want to give JJ Cooper tons of credit for really being the point man for this list.

John Manuel: Ha, no. We would stop at 15-20 in that case … Not all top 100s are created equal. Last year, the talent in the minor leagues as more robust than it is this year. That’s true of draft classes; it’s true of prospect lists when they are professionals. It’s just who we think the best 100 guys are at this point, with the guidelines we spelled out in the intro, and I want to give JJ Cooper tons of credit for really being the point man for this list.

Mary (Nc): Could Luke Weaver be a #2 someday? Or is his ceiling still at #3
John Manuel: I don’t think he has that kind of upside because he’s never had that wipeout breaking ball. He’s probably more of a 3 at his peak and a fourth starter is more realistic. He’s kind of a Mike Leake type.