Midseason Prospect Update: Rockies

The Midseason Top 10 Prospect lists are compiled from conversations with front office officials and scouts from all 30 teams. Players who have exhausted prospect eligibility or were in the Major Leagues as of June 22 are not eligible. Draftees from the 2016 draft and July 2, 2016 signees are also not eligible.

SEE ALSO: Midseason Top 100

In the first week of the season, baseball’s biggest story belonged to the Rockies. Rookie shortstop Trevor Story—their No. 8 preseason prospect—launched an MLB-record seven home runs in the team’s first six games and went on to hit a rookie-record 10 home runs in the month of April. He has since tied the National League rookie record with 21 home runs before the all-star break.

2019 PROJECTED LINEUP

C Tom Murphy

1B Ryan McMahon

2B Trevor Story

3B Nolan Arenado

SS Brendan Rodgers

LF Raimel Tapia

CF David Dahl

RF Charlie Blackmon

No. 1 Starter Jon Gray

No. 2 Starter Jeff Hoffman

No. 3 Starter German Marquez

No. 4 Starter Kyle Freeland

No. 5 Starter Tyler Chatwood

Closer Carlos Estevez

Early on, Story breathed some life into a team that traded away franchise face Troy Tulowitzki the summer before. The Rockies were a .500 team three weeks into May and, at 39-46, sat in third place in the National League West above the Padres and last-place Diamondbacks. The Rockies remain a team in transition—with 30-year-old outfielder Carlos Gonzalez likely the next big chip to be dealt—but the future appears bright.

Third baseman Nolan Arenado, 25, has supplanted Tulowitzki as the team’s centerpiece, ranking second in the NL with 23 home runs while playing exceptional defense. And the Rockies should soon have more youth surrounding him with several of the team’s top prospects thriving in the upper levels of minors.

Story and preseason No. 1 prospect Jon Gray have broken through. Gray, a hard-throwing righthander and the third overall pick in 2013, has become a rotation stalwart with 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings and an opponents’ OPS below .700. Righthander Carlos Estevez, the team’s No. 17 preseason prospect, made an early jump to the majors and has pitched in high-leverage roles out of the bullpen. Lefthander Tyler Anderson, 26, has battled injuries since the Rockies drafted him in the first round in 2011. But after not pitching in 2015, he’s worked his way up to the majors this season.

Another wave is coming behind them. Righthander Jeff Hoffman, acquired from the Blue Jays in the Tulowitzki trade, has excelled at Triple-A Albuquerque in his second year removed from Tommy John surgery and could earn a callup at any moment. Preseason No. 2 prospect David Dahl is finally healthy and playing to the potential he’s always flashed, dominating Double-A Hartford to earn a Triple-A promotion. And though he’s further away from the big leagues, last year’s first-round pick Brendan Rodgers is showing why he was the No. 1 overall player in last year’s BA 500, providing power at shortstop at low Class A Asheville.

MIDSEASON TOP 10

1. Brendan Rodgers, ss

The No. 1 player in last year’s BA 500 and the third overall pick, Rodgers has put up stout numbers at low Class A Asheville after a so-so professional debut at Rookie-Level Grand Junction last summer. Despite battling nagging hamstring injuries and a touch of dead arm, Rodgers was hitting .294/.362/.492 with 11 home runs through 262 at-bats, showcasing some of his plus power potential at 19 years old. The Rockies have been pleased with his approach and the adjustments he’s made in his first full professional season. Rodgers has the look of a future big league run producer with his advanced hit tool and blossoming power.

2. David Dahl, of

Slowed by a splenectomy last season, Dahl has been fully healthy this season and finally able to cash in on his potential five-tool talent. Dahl worked his way onto the Futures Game roster with a loud 76 games in Double-A Hartford, where he showed more over-the-fence power than he has in the past, slugging 13 homers. He’s shown no signs of slowing at Triple-A Albuquerque, homering twice in his first four games.

3. Jeff Hoffman, rhp

Hoffman is only a year and a half into his professional career and equally removed from Tommy John surgery, but he’s on the cusp of a callup with a dominant season at Triple-A Albuquerque. Hoffman has always had electric stuff—a mid-90s fastball with plus sink paired with a power curve. But the Rockies have allowed him to throw his slider this year, and his strikeout rate has correspondingly improved from 6.5 per nine a year ago to 9.1 per nine this season.

4. Raimel Tapia, of

Some evaluators point to Tapia’s unorthodox swing mechanics—particularly his exaggerated crouch—as reasons why he can’t be successful. But the Rockies have had no reason to tinker with him, as he’s done nothing but hit in his pro career due to his solid bat-to-ball ability. The 22-year-old is on pace for one of his best offensive seasons yet at Double-A Hartford, batting .337/.382/.462 through 332 at-bats as he’s improved his contact rate.

5. Ryan McMahon, 3b

McMahon has hit a bump in the road with Double-A Hartford, struggling for the first time in his pro career (.230/.313/.353, 98 strikeouts in 283 at-bats) and tinkering. At 21, he’s young for the level, and the Rockies view his struggles much like they viewed Trevor Story’s at a similar junction of his career. A new development: McMahon has played first base for more than a third of his games, as he’s not likely to displace Nolan Arenado.

6. German Marquez, rhp

Marquez was not just a throw-in in the trade that sent outfielder Corey Dickerson and third base prospect Kevin Padlo to the Rays for lefthander Jake McGee. The Rockies had Marquez earmarked, and the 21-year-old righthander has lived up to—if not exceeded—their expectations at Double-A Hartford, where he had 89 strikeouts to 25 walks in 98 innings. Marquez has front-line stuff and high upside, working 94-96 mph and touching 98 mph with a plus curveball and a developing changeup.

7. Kyle Freeland, lhp

Freeland missed the first half of last season with surgery to remove bone chips in his left elbow, but he ended the year on a high note with a solid Arizona Fall League performance, and he’s pitched his way to Triple-A Albuquerque this season, where he’d held his own so far. Freeland has double-plus control of his low- to mid-90s fastball and a potentially wipeout slider, but he’s still learning to set up hitters and improve his strikeout rate.

8. Antonio Senzatela, rhp

When he’s been healthy, the 21-year-old Venezuelan righthander has excelled at Double-A Hartford, but he’s only made seven starts (4-1, 1.82) due to shoulder inflammation. Senzatela’s slider, which he developed in lieu of a curveball last season, continues to take steps forward to complement his potential plus changeup and 92-95 mph—up to 98—fastball.

9. Ryan Castellani, rhp

The Rockies have handled Castellani carefully since taking him in the second round in 2014, but the righthander has passed every test thus far. He’d struck out 8.2 per nine, has a high groundball rate and is pitching deeper into outings. His two-seam velocity is up a tick at 92-95 mph with plus sink, and he adds a hard-biting slider and an improved changeup.

10. Peter Lambert, rhp

Drafted in the second round last June, Lambert came in with a considerable amount of polish from pitching with USA Baseball’s 18U national team. He’s followed a strong debut with an even better 2016 campaign at low Class A Asheville, where he’d walked just 17 to 61 strikeouts in 70 innings. His advanced fastball command has allowed him to work on his other pitches—a swing-and-miss 12-to-6 curveball, slider and a low-80s changeup that could be his best secondary offering.

RISING

Acquired from the White Sox for reliever Tommy Kahnle after the 2015 season, 22-year-old righthander Yency Almonte has flourished at high Class A Modesto. Recently touching 98 mph, Almonte has struck out 92 to 26 walks in 100 innings, and the Rockies are excited by his upside … At low Class A Asheville, two 2015 draftees—outfielder Sam Hilliard and first baseman Brian Mundell—have hit for power and had loud offensive seasons. Hilliard in particular has five-tool potential—a 6-foot-5 outfielder with surprising speed and plus power . . . At Triple-A Albuquerque, outfielder/first baseman Jordan Patterson has picked up from where he left off last season, knocking on the big league door with a .313/.415/.458 season in 227 at-bats.

FALLING

Catcher Tom Murphy has slowed down offensively. While he continues to hit for power—a .274 ISO—at Triple-A Albuquerque, he had struck out 54 times to just four walks in 166 plate appearances. He remains an above-average receiver, throwing out 36 percent of basestealers . . . For the second straight season, catcher Dom Nunez has had a difficult offensive first half, batting .234/.332/.293 through 222 at-bats at high Class A Modesto. However, the Rockies are pleased with his approach at the plate, and Nunez was a second-half hitter last year at low Class A, hitting all 13 of his homers after the break . . . Righthander Mike Nikorak, the 27th pick in last year’s draft, returned to short-season Grand Junction for a second consecutive season. He’s been better, but he has yet to show the flashes of dominance expected of him.

HURTING

Righthander Antonio Senzatela hasn’t pitched since June 15 with shoulder inflammation. The Rockies are handling him carefully but don’t view it as a serious injury. Third baseman Tyler Nevin, son of Phil and a supplemental first-round pick last year, hasn’t played in 2016 due to a hamstring strain. He’s participating in baseball activities and could be game-ready in a few weeks. Righthander Jairo Diaz, a likely big league bullpen arm, had Tommy John surgery in March and is out for the season.

GRADUATING

Preseason No. 1 righthander Jon Gray and preseason No. 8 shortstop Trevor Story have been key big league performers for the Rockies. Hard-throwing righthander reliever Carlos Estevez made the jump to the big leagues and has been a key member of the bullpen. Being healthy has been a challenge since he was a first-rounder in 2011, but 26-year-old lefthander Tyler Anderson has stayed healthy, reached the majors and held his own in his first five starts . . . Righthander Miguel Castro and infielder Cristhian Adames have also exhausted prospect eligibility.

COMING ABOARD (Check the Draft Database for more picks)
The Rockies’ first five picks of the 2016 draft. (s-supplemental round)

1. Riley Pint, rhp, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Overland Park, Kan. The No. 2 player in the BA 500, Pint adds to the Rockies’ growing collection of hard-throwing arms. Touching as high 102 mph with a slider, curve and potential plus change, Pint has front-line potential.

1s. Robert Tyler, rhp, Georgia. Like Pint, Tyler throws hard and has touched 99 mph. No. 29 in the BA 500, Tyler’s lack of a consistent breaking ball could relegate him to the bullpen, but he has a strong changeup.

2. Ben Bowden, lhp, Vanderbilt. A physically imposing, 6-foot-4, 235-pound lefthander, Bowden pitched both in the weekend rotation and in the bullpen for Vanderbilt in his college career. No. 75 in the BA 500, Bowden’s fastball sits 93-94 and he adds a changeup and a slider that some scouts grade as plus.

3. Garrett Hampson, ss, Long Beach State. A shortstop from the same program Troy Tulowitzki hails from, Hampson doesn’t have the offensive firepower of Tulowitzki or the size. But he’s a polished defender with plus speed and has a high floor.

4. Colton Welker, 3b, Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla. A shortstop in high school, Welker has a third-base profile with his 6-foot-1, 209-pound frame and strong arm. He’s a line-drive hitter who projects to hit for average power.