Midseason Prospect Update: Braves
The Midseason Top 10 Prospect lists are compiled from conversations with front office officials and scouts from all 30 teams. Players who have exhausted prospect eligibility or were in the Major Leagues as of June 22 are not eligible. Draftees from the 2016 draft and July 2, 2016 signees are also not eligible.
It’s not going to be a speedy rebuild.
| 2019 PROJECTED LINEUP |
| C Tyler Flowers |
| 1B Freddie Freeman |
| 2B Ozzie Albies |
| 3B Rio Ruiz |
| SS Dansby Swanson |
| LF Austin Riley |
| CF Mallex Smith |
| RF Ender Inciarte |
| No. 1 Starter Julio Teheran |
| No. 2 Starter Matt Wisler |
| No. 3 Starter Sean Newcomb |
| No. 4 Starter Mike Soroka |
| No. 5 Starter Kolby Allard |
| Closer Touki Toussaint |
It’s not going to be a speedy rebuild. Atlanta’s 2016 season has seen a manager fired and a team challenging for the worst record in the majors. The struggles have confirmed that the big league team is a long way away from contention.
Starting from scratch is rarely pretty. The Braves’ pitching staff is already making the transition to youth–Matt Wisler, Mike Foltyniewicz, John Gant and Aaron Blair have joined the 25-year-old Julio Teheran in a rotation that at times has no one older than 25.
But the lineup will take some more work. On many nights this season Freddie Freeman, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith and Ender Inciarte are the only hitters in the lineup younger than 30. Besides Freeman, there is no Braves’ hitter who has the power to anchor the middle of the lineup. Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies should give the Braves a potent middle infield combination as soon as 2017, but if the team is going to add power, it will have to turn to free agency or trades.
Atlanta has one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, especially when it comes to pitchers. Much more help is on the way as Atlanta spent heavily on the international market this July, landing No. 1 prospect Kevin Maitan, after landing three first-round talents in the draft as well. But the majority of those acquisitions will not reach Atlanta until 2020 and beyond.
The Braves could be sellers again at the trade deadline, but they would need to trade Teheran if they wanted to receive a significant return. Long-term, the future looks bright, but a large number of the Braves’ top prospects are in Class A or below. So when the team’s new stadium opens in 2017, it will be receiving a team that is still in the middle of a long-term renovation.
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Dansby Swanson, ss
He hasn’t left a trail of dazed pitchers in his wake like fellow 2015 draftee Alex Bregman, but Swanson is showing every sign of being the long-term cornerstone shortstop the Braves expect him to be. If the Braves can find a taker for Erick Aybar, it’s not crazy to think that Swanson could reach Atlanta before the year ends. Unlike many young shortstops, he’s already pretty reliable defensively.
2. Ozzie Albies, ss/2b
Albies has jumped to Triple-A and then returned to Double-A so he could slide over to second base to work with his long-term double-play partner Swanson. He’s a top-of-the-order hitter with excellent bat control and should be plus defensively at second. Like Swanson, Albies’ big league ETA may come sooner than expected.
3. Sean Newcomb, lhp
Newcomb still has easy 90-95 mph velocity and a hammer curveball, although his feel for the curve comes and goes. His walk rate continues to be much too high (4.7 BB/9), but a number of scouts see it as an approach problem as much as a delivery issue. When he gets ahead in counts, Newcomb pitches like a soft-tossing nibbler when he has the stuff to attack hitters.
4. Kolby Allard, lhp
The Braves sent Allard to low Class A Rome for two starts to get him out of the Groundhog Day experience of extended spring, but after he was hammered, he was quickly sent to the Rookie-level Appalachian League. Allard’s stuff has been what it was before his back injury (88-94 mph with a potentially plus curveball and average changeup), and he’s dominating in Danville.
5. Mike Soroka, rhp
Soroka has a lower ceiling than several of the Braves’ long list of pitching prospects, but he is much more polished at a young age than most of them. He throws strikes with three average or better offerings. Where last year he was an easy at-bat for lefties last year, he’s moved on the rubber, allowing him to use both sides of the plate
6. Austin Riley, 3b
Riley seemed overmatched in his first swing through the South Atlantic League, but he’s improved his approach and pitch recognition since then and he’s starting to again tap into his significant power. He’ll never be plus defensively, but he’s playable at third.
7. Touki Toussaint, rhp
Toussaint was awful early on at Rome, but he’s retooled almost everything since then. He’s throwing from a lower slot and with a shorter arm action, producing dramatic improvement. Toussaint walked 28 and struck out 24 in 43 innings in the first two months. Since then he’s struck out 38 and walked 14 in 35 innings.
8. Max Fried, lhp
Fried’s fastball command will have to get much better, but his stuff makes him still one of the most promising lefties in the minors. He sits 92-93 mph and has touched 96 and his curveball flashes plus. The consistency of both got much better as the weather heated up in June
9. Ronald Acuna, of
Acuna is sidelined until August recovering from thumb surgery and he’s just dipped his toe into full season ball, but he has the best power/speed/defense combination among Braves position prospects. He has a future right field profile.
10. Rio Ruiz, 3b
Ruiz has held his own in the International League as a 22-year-old, showing plate discipline if not much power. He rakes against righthanders (.302/.396/.438) but is an easy out for lefties. Defensively, he should have solid average range and is very reliable.
RISING
Righthander Max Povse’s velocity wavers from inning to inning, but his combination of height, extension and stuff (he sits 90-92 and touches 94) have allowed him to carve up Carolina League hitters … Righthander Patrick Weigel was a hard-throwing but wild reliever in college. The Braves have tamed the control issues without losing the stuff. As a starter at low Class A Rome, Weigel has sat 94-95 mph and has touched 99 with his fastball. He mixes in a hard slider and a firm changeup that makes up for its lack of separation with some late fade . . . Lefthander A.J. Minter fell in the draft because he had already endured thoracic outlet syndrome and needed Tommy John surgery (which is why he threw only 58 innings in college). But now that he’s healthy again he’s showing back-of-the-bullpen stuff with a 93-97 mph fastball and a quality cutter.
FALLING
Outfielder Braxton Davidson still has patience at the plate, but too many deep counts have meant too many strikeouts, and scouts want to see the big right fielder show more in-game power … Righthander Zack Bird, a pickup in the Alex Wood-to-the-Dodgers’ trade last summer, has seen his already shaky fastball command disappear completely in his first full year with the Braves … Righthander Lucas Sims still has plenty of stuff but he’s been overthrowing, necessitating a demotion to Double-A.
HURTING
Righthander Daniel Winkler was making a very successful return from Tommy John surgery when he was sidelined again with a fractured pitching elbow in late April … Acuna is expected to return in August after missing three months with a thumb injury.
GRADUATING
Righthander Tyrell Jenkins has jumped to the big leagues to serve as a reliever/spot starter … Outfielder Mallex Smith has shown speed and surprising power, but he has to add a little more plate discipline if he’s going to be a leadoff hitter.
COMING ABOARD
The Braves’ first five picks in the 2015 draft. (s-supplemental round)
1. Ian Anderson, rhp. Anderson got better and better as the draft neared. His low-to-mid-90s fastball and outstanding changeup should buy him time to refine his curveball.
1s. Joey Wentz, lhp. Wentz was a legitimate prospect as a power-hitting first baseman too, but his fastball is simply too good to not put him on the mound.
2. Kyle Muller, lhp. Muller dominated the competitive Texas high school ranks this spring with a clean delivery and a plus fastball.
2s. Brett Cumberland, c. Cumberland had a great sophomore season, showing power with just enough defensively ability to remain at catcher.
3. Drew Harrington, lhp. The ACC pitcher of the year dominated with average stuff, but his fastball and slider both play up due to command and deception.
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