Midseason Prospect Update: Astros
The Midseason Top 10 Prospect lists are compiled from conversations with front office officials and scouts from all 30 teams. Players who have exhausted prospect eligibility or were in the Major Leagues as of June 22 are not eligible. Draftees from the 2016 draft and July 2, 2016 signees are also not eligible.
SEE ALSO: Midseason Top 100
By the end of April 2015, the Astros had already established themselves as one of the stories of the season. Houston rode an outstanding 15-7 April to an early lead in the AL West.
| 2019 PROJECTED LINEUP |
| C Jason Castro |
| 1B A.J. Reed |
| 2B Jose Altuve |
| 3B Alex Bregman |
| SS Carlos Correa |
| LF Derek Fisher |
| CF Colby Rasmus |
| RF George Springer |
| DH Kyle Tucker |
| No. 1 Starter Dallas Keuchel |
| No. 2 Starter Lance McCullers |
| No. 3 Starter Francis Martes |
| No. 4 Starter Joe Musgrove |
| No. 5 Starter David Paulino |
| Closer Ken Giles |
The Astros were only two games over .500 for the rest of the season. The Astros’ slowdown—combined with some very astute trades by the Rangers (led by the Cole Hamels deal)—allowed Texas to claw back from a nine-game deficit near the end of July to catch Houston by the end of September. But Houston still earned a wild-card spot.
This year Houston flipped the script.
The Astros went 7-17 in April, burying themselves deep in the basement of the AL West. Since then, they’ve been one of the AL’s best teams, but that early deficit has ensured that at the All-Star break, they were still second in the division to the Rangers.
It’s unlikely that the Astros can catch the Rangers, but then it was just as unlikely that Texas could catch Houston last season. And Houston is right in the thick of the wild-card race, which will likely make it a buyer at the trade deadline.
The Astros are as well-equipped as any team to make moves to shore up their weaknesses. Even with Dallas Keuchel struggling, the Astros’ rotation has been adequate, and the bullpen, buoyed by rookies Chris Devenski and Michael Feliz, has been excellent.
But the lineup has been flawed and could use help. Houston could stand pat and hope that A.J. Reed can fix the problems at first base and Carlos Gomez bounces back from an awful first half. But with infielder Alex Bregman hitting in Triple-A, the Astros could turn to the minors for further help, or they could trade from their still-significant, upper-level minor league depth to make a big addition or two.
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Alex Bregman, ss
Bregman has been everything the Astros could have hoped for in his first full pro season. He’s jumped from Double-A to Triple-A and he’s shown power as well as an advanced hit tool. Defensively, he’s adequate at shortstop if not better, and he’s gotten a little bit of time at third base, where he could be above-average. He could see time in left field if that’s what it takes to get him to Houston faster.
2. Francis Martes, rhp
Martes got off to a slow start to the season, largely because of control troubles. But after his rough April, Martes has been as advertised. His 92-97 mph fastball has excellent arm side run and his split-change and curveball both grade out as above average.
3. Joe Musgrove, rhp
It’s hard to find a scout who projects Musgrove as more than a No. 3 starter, but with a plus slider, an above-average fastball, an average changeup and above-average control, there’s a lot higher comfort level that Musgrove will be a big league starter than almost any pitcher in the minors.
4. Kyle Tucker, of
Tucker’s first full pro season has largely gone as expected. He’s one of the better young hitters in the low Class A Midwest League. Unlike most young lefthanded hitters, he’s actually comfortable hitting against lefties. What is surprising is he’s stolen 27 bags in 33 attempts despite average speed.
5. David Paulino, rhp
Many tall, long-armed young pitchers struggle for years to find their deliveries and the control that comes with it. Paulino has had no such issues. Even with a fastball that has excellent run and tailing action, he finds the strike zone consistently. Paulino was suspended for disciplinary reasons in late June, which is the biggest hiccup in an excellent Double-A season.
6. Derek Fisher, of
Fisher has long intrigued with his combination of power and speed, but this year’s he’s taken a step forward by sharpening his understanding of the strike zone. The Astros are still working on making him a center fielder, but he’s now hitting for enough power that even if he had to slide to a corner, he might hit enough to do it.
7. Albert Abreu, rhp
Abreu is advanced for his age. Unlike many young pitchers who can touch 95-plus, Abreu wants to use his breaking ball and changeup. His control has a long way, to go but the pieces are there for Abreu to be a promising starter.
8. Teoscar Hernandez, of
Hernandez’s career has more ups and downs than a commuter jet. He was eligible in last December’s Rule 5 draft and went unpicked as teams couldn’t get comfortable picking a player who hit .219/.275/.362 in the Texas League. Six months later, the Astros wouldn’t leave Hernandez unprotected again. He dominated in Double-A and has been promoted to Triple-A.
9. Colin Moran, 3b
Moran made his big league debut this year with a 2-for-19 stint. In Triple-A he’s still hitting for average as he always has, but he’s done little to answer concerns that he’s not going to hit for enough power to be a regular. In the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Moran is slugging less than .400.
10. Daz Cameron, of
It’s hard to not be worried about Cameron’s first full season since signing for $4 million. He was overmatched by Midwest League pitchers and had to be sent back to extended spring training, then to the short-season New York Penn League. Cameron has been better with Tri-City, but he’s behind schedule for a relatively polished high school supplemental first-round pick. A broken pointer finger ended his season in July.
RISING
Scouts who have seen righthander James Hoyt in the Pacific Coast League wonder why he’s not in the big leagues. He pitches with shaky control but two plus to plus-plus offerings in his fastball and slider . . . In his first full pro season, catcher Garrett Stubbs had earned his way to Double-A, controlling the strike zone and the running game (he’d thrown out 53 percent of opposing basestealers).
FALLING
Last year’s PCL MVP, third baseman Matt Duffy has to hit as he’s a fringe-average defender. He’s struggled in a return to Triple-A Fresno with contact issues (93 strikeouts) … Shortstop Nolan Fontana’s approach helped him post a .369 OBP last year for Fresno, but his lack of pop means pitchers have attacked him this season (24-77 BB-SO ratio).
HURTING
Righthander Riley Ferrell is sidelined until 2017 as he recovers from shoulder surgery to repair an aneurysm . . . Lefthander Kent Emanuel missed the first two months of the season as he finished up his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery in 2015.
GRADUATING
First baseman Tyler White hit five home runs in April, but his bat cooled off quickly and he’s been demoted back to Fresno … Righthander Michael Feliz has taken nicely to his role as a power reliever in the Astros bullpen … Righthander Chris Devenski went unprotected and unpicked in the Rule 5 draft last December. He should have been picked as he’s been a reliable reliever/spot starter for the big league club . . . Versatile Tony Kemp has been sent back to the minors but he was not eligible for the midseason Top 10 because he was in the big leagues at the time of the eligibility deadline.
COMING ABOARD (Check Draft Database for all picks)
The Astros’ first five picks of the 2016 draft. (s-supplemental round)
1. Forrest Whitley, rhp, Alamo Heights HS, San Antonio. Whitley combined a great arm, an excellent 6-foot-7 frame and an improving body to become one of the more promising high school arms in the 2016 draft class. His fastball/slider combination gives him a strong foundation.
2. Ronnie Dawson, of, Ohio State. Dawson carried Ohio State at times late in the season with an impressive bat. He has to hit as he’s likely a left fielder.
3. Jake Rogers, c, Tulane. Most scouts who’d seen him considered Rogers the top defensive catcher in the draft class. He shuts down running games, blocks and receives well behind the plate, but he needs to improve a lot at the plate.
4. Brett Adcock, lhp, Michigan. Adcock misses a lot of bats, but he misses the strike zone a lot too. His fastball and breaking ball are quality, and he needs to throw more quality strikes with both.
5. Abraham Toro, 3b, Seminole State (Okla.) JC. Toro is a promising young power hitter with questions about where he’ll end up defensively. While he’s played third base, some scouts think he fits better at catcher.
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