Kyle Glaser MLB Prospects Chat (8/13/19)

Image credit: Jorge Guzman (Photo by Tom DiPace)

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, hope your week is going well so far. Let’s get chatting

Seth Brown (Oakland): 

I’m bashing in AAA. Do I have a shot to contribute in Oakland anytime soon?

Kyle Glaser: A September callup is certainly in the realm of possibility. Anything earlier would be difficult because the A’s have a full 40-man. Not impossible though.

Eric (NY): 

Dylan Carlson had quite the week, what was the reasoning for leaving him off the prospect report on Monday and last week’s hot sheet?

Kyle Glaser: Can’t speak to the Prospect Report. As for the latest Hot Sheet, he had a really good week but so did a lot of other guys. Only 20 spots, a lot of worthy players get left off each week.

Frederick (Boston): 

It’s constantly said the Dylan Carlson is tge type of player that’s good at everything, just not great at ome thing. When I think of a major leaguer like that, Benintendi often comes to mind first. How comparable would they be as players? Perhaps Carlson has a slightly worse hit tool but better power? Thanks for the chat!

Kyle Glaser: Carlson might have plus power and his defense could be plus in the corners, so I wouldn’t exactly say he’s not great at anything. It’s more that even if those don’t quite come to fruition, he still should be a really good player because there aren’t any glaring weaknesses. As far as Benintendi, that’s a plus hitter, so I again wouldn’t characterize him as not great at anything. If you were to compare the two, Carlson would project for more power and a lower batting average, yes.

Jeff D (Alexandria): 

Hi Kyle, I greatly appreciated your article on College or Pro for HS Pitchers- it was very well done! As far as prospects I usually prefer a high floor over a high ceiling but I wanted to ask you. Who has a higher ceiling between SPs Kay, T Ivey,and Bubic? I feel highest floor is Kay, Bubic then Ivey but ceiling I have no idea. Thank you!

Kyle Glaser: Hey Jeff, thanks for the kind words. Kay has the best stuff of the three and he’s the farthest along up the minor ladder. He is the highest floor and the highest ceiling. That’s why he’s spent time in the Top 100 and the others haven’t, though they are fine pitching prospects in their own right.

Jeff (Minnesota): 

Is Matt Manning a potential #1 starter?

Kyle Glaser: There are some who think he has that potential. You have to keep in mind there are maybe 5-6 true No. 1 starters in the majors at a given time, so the odds are slim. Of the guys in the minors right now, MacKenzie Gore is the one with the best chance.

Daniel (Barranquilla, Colombia): 

Hi Kyle, What type of ceiling do you see for Edward Cabrera? Ace potential? His development from 2018 to 2019 was a thing of beauty. Thanks in advance!

Kyle Glaser: Cabrera is seen more as a power-armed mid-rotation type. The command and control are closer to average. Aces have plus command and control. Still a really good pitcher with a bright future

Nick Bruce (Castro Valley, CA): 

For players taken in the amateur draft, how much do you adjust your pre-draft evaluations based on their performance in their first year of pro ball? Are there any guys that are improving their stock this year so far?

Kyle Glaser: You adjust a little bit based on the context of the league they’re in. If they dominated (or struggled) in the complex leagues, you honestly don’t change a thing. But if it’s a HS guy who goes up and dominates the advanced rookie levels (Pio or Appy Leagues) or a college guy who got to HiA already and dominated, then you start to maybe make a small tweak or two after the year is completed. In general, you really don’t want to go too crazy off a six-week pro debut though, no matter how good or bad.

Matt (Los Angeles, CA): 

What are your thoughts on Jeremiah Jackson? I know PIO lg numbers can be deceiving but his power looks legit

Kyle Glaser: Jackson’s power is very legit, Pioneer League or not. He’s a good prospect with power and a chance to play the middle of the diamond. It’s just about keeping his strikeouts down and making enough contact. He’s a top 10 prospect in the Angels system though and certainly has promise.

DJ (California): 

Thanks for doing the chat again! There are some minor league pitchers having great years but not getting a ton of love. I have a very diverse and random group but I’m wondering out of Tucker Davidson, Cristian Javier, Joe Ryan, Seth Corry and Daulton Jefferies has the best upside and floor…? They all seem to have some really special qualities, no?

Kyle Glaser: Joe Ryan and Seth Corry have gotten a lot of love recently in the Hot Sheets, and JJ has been on Davidson and Javier for a while and I’ve talked about Jeffries some. They’re all on our radar and have gotten love, I promise you. Jeffries might be the guy if he can stay healthy (and that’s a big if). Davidson is the closest and most likely to carve out a major league role in some capacity.

Brad (NJ): 

Kyle, Please tell me more about Nick Schnell. Thank you!

Kyle Glaser: You can read all about him on his player card, which has all his scouting reports https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/7332-nick-schnell/

Brad (NJ): 

Kyle, Can Jo Adell be Ronald Acuna Jr 2.0?

Kyle Glaser: I’m not going to put anything past Jo Adell. I will say Acuna was seen as the better prospect. Both elite, but Acuna was a year younger and mashing at Triple-A and had more of a chance to play CF. Both great, but I’d lean Adell being not quite Acuna 2.0. As I write that though, I have this voice in the back of my head saying “Don’t underestimate Jo Adell”. He’s really, really good.

Tim (SLC): 

A’s have a trio of pitching prospects that were either top 100 or near top 100 that (understandably) fell of the radar after missing a lot of time, but Kaprielian (2.57 ERA, 12K/5BB), Grant Holmes (3.74, 63:24), and Daulton Jefferies (3.54, 66:7), all seem to be on the doorstep of the major leagues. Lots of workload management going on this year, but any insight into whether they would be able to make an impact at the big league level in 2020?

Kyle Glaser: Jeffries is the guy there, followed by Holmes and then Kaprielian.

Brad (NJ): 

Kyle, What position do you see Branden Rodgers ending up at and what type of impact will he have with his bat playing half his games in Coors?

Kyle Glaser: He’s going to be at second base with Trevor Story locked in at SS and Nolan Arenado at 3B. And like all Rockies hitters, especially ones who can find the barrel like Rodgers, he’s got a chance to put up some huge numbers

Joey (Queens): 

What’s with the big red banner on the website? YOu think you’re special or something?

Kyle Glaser: Lol I noticed that, and it’s the first time I’ve ever seen that. I guess it’s something our web team developed. And I promise you, I’m hardly special. Just a guy doing his job.

Troy (LA): 

How excited should we be about Will Smith? Or is this just him playing over his head and eventually he will regress? I ask because I thought Barnes was the answer….but then…you know. Thanks for the chat!

Kyle Glaser: Well, he’s certainly not going to hit .313 with 52 home runs and 169 RBIs every year (his currently 162 game averages) so yes, there will be regression, and probably a significant amount of it. But he’s a really good defensive catcher with the leadership makeup for the position and above-average power. That will play as an everyday catcher in the big leagues, and a good one.

Michael (Reading): 

So with Mike Trout coming back to Philly next year for interleague play, when are they going to trade for him? This whole team is a mess and Bryce Harper is toast

Kyle Glaser: They aren’t getting him in a trade unless they’re willing to part with Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Scott Kingery and then a whole bunch of prospects on top of it. Which again, is something Philly would never do because it would cripple their team. So again, stop trying to make a Trout trade happen. It’s not happening.

Jake (BK): 

What would your players’ weekend nickname be?

Kyle Glaser: Glaze was always my nickname when I played. So I guess that would have to be it.

Matthew (Toronto): 

On the Top 100, it says that Gavin Lux has a projected 55-grade hit tool and 50-grade power. Is it safe to say that he’s closer to a plus-hitter (with plus-power) now?

Kyle Glaser: Yes, the hit has definitely become plus. The power is still seen as more above-average, but he wouldn’t be the first player to outdo a power projection with the way balls are flying out. He’s a really good player who keeps getting better.

Carl (SF): 

Is Logan Webb the top arm in SF? What’s his upside?

Kyle Glaser: The top arm in the Giants system is listed in their Midseason Top 30 rankings. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/san-francisco-giants-2019-top-30-mlb-prospects-midseason-update/.

AT (Philadelphia): 

Do you see Seth Corry making the top 100 list the next time it is updated?

Kyle Glaser: Not yet. He’s having a great run but it’s still Low A. There are a lot of other great prospects with equal or better upside performing at higher levels. They’re first in line

Steve (NY): 

The Kingsport Mets have some talent on the roster. Are you concerned with Batty’s Struggles? Is Francisco Alvarez the real deal? How has Junior Santos progressed? Are any of these interesting teenage hitters guys to keep an eye on?

Kyle Glaser: I would put very little stock into a just-drafted guy not killing it his first few weeks as a pro (if you want to have some fun, go back and look at Derek Jeter and Carlos Correa’s pro debuts in Rookie ball). So don’t panic on Baty yet. Alvarez does appear to be the real deal. The reports are good, the pedigree is good, the numbers are good, it’s really promising. One scout commented he thought Alvarez had a chance to be the best player in their system.

Brian (Washington, DC): 

How likely do you think Nolan Jones is to tap into the latent power? Is it a matter of some small in-game adjustments or are there more serious impediments?

Kyle Glaser: There’s a lot of optimism he will. Still a young guy with room to grow into his body and add strength. I just spoke with a scout yesterday who comfortably put 25-30 home runs on Jones. It’ll come.

Mitch (Wash DC): 

With Newman’s success in Pitt, is Cole Tucker’s path blocked? Tucker seemed to be an exciting prospect at the start of the season. Thanks

Kyle Glaser: It might be. Who gets there first and stakes their claim has a lot to do with how organizations map out their futures. That said, you could still see Newman sliding to 2B and Tucker becoming the SS and that being the Pirates’ middle infield of the future.

James (Austin, TX): 

Thanks for the chat! Is C.J. Abrams better than what most people expected coming out of the draft? Or is his hot start just small sample noise?

Kyle Glaser: Abrams was expected to be really, really good. That’s why he was the No. 4-ranked player in the entire country in a draft class where the top was really strong. It’s not like he was underrated. His start is certainly very impressive, but it’s indicative of the talent people knew was in there.

Luis Campusano (Lake Elsinore): 

Am I Loco to not understand why I am not rated as high as Joey Bart when I am 2 years younger and hit better than him at the same level?

Kyle Glaser: This is a conversation I’m having with a lot of scouts right now as I prepare to line up the Cal League Top 20. Bart gets the edge in throwing, catcher leadership/presence/makeup and power; Campusano gets the edge in contact. Receiving is close. They’re both really, really good.

Ryan (Phoenix): 

Hi Kyle. I have a question about what BA values when they rank farm systems. Fangraphs and MLB.com have the Dbacks as number 5, ESPN had them at 8 before the season, and BA has them at 23. I’m not saying anyone is right or wrong since these are subjective, but I was curious if you know what BA values differently than those other sites. Thank you!

Kyle Glaser: Some of it depends on when they’re updated. If FanGraphs and MLB.com did theirs after the trade deadline (which I think they did but am not sure), it’s going to be higher than our org talent rankings, which were done pre-deadline. If we re-did them today, D-backs would be a lot higher.

BennyFunk (Loxahatchee, Florida): 

Is Ty France season directly related to the juiced ball climate in AAA? Or are there any scouts that see him in person and say this guy has really taken a leap and is a legit prospect?

Kyle Glaser: The fact he’s hitting .400 is related, but he’s still a good player scouts have seen as a big leaguer for two years now (thus, he was ranked in the Padres Top 30 coming into the year). He was a prospect even before this. He’s still seen as more of a 3B/1B/stand in the OF backup type. That’s still a big leaguer, which is more than can be said of a lot of guys hitting .300+ with power in Triple-A right now.

Neal (Columbia, SC): 

Ryan Vilade has been really swinging the bat well. The power has started to show a bit and his K rate keeps going down. He has rebounded well in High A. What are your thoughts on his continued development and chances at making into the top 100 next year?

Kyle Glaser: He’s hitting .228/.296/.329 away from Lancaster. That’s the real performance. Throw home splits out for every Lancaster player. Vilade is seen as maybe, maybe an extra guy down the road, at best. He’s not in the Top 100 discussion

William (Toronto): 

Casey Mize has looked very different post Allstar break. Is there any concern that he is still injured? Or just rust?

Kyle Glaser: Injuries have always been the concern with Mize, dating back to high school and college. A decline in performance following missing a month with a shoulder injury is something to be concerned about, absolutely. It’s not like this came out of nowhere. This was the fear. Seeing how he bounces back – and whether he can maintain his health and peak performance – need to be closely watched.

William (Hamilton): 

With how much Dj Peters strikes out, is his power and defense enough to be an every day major leaguer?

Kyle Glaser: On a second-division team maybe. Not for a contending club like the Dodgers. For them he’s a righthanded power bat you platoon with Pederson/Verdugo and can play all three OF spots as needed in a reserve capacity.

Allen (IL): 

Do you think the recently called up Josh Rojas can be a long term super utility piece?

Kyle Glaser: Yeah. Lot of scouts (not all, but a lot) liked him and saw him as that. He’ll be especially valuable on a National League club.

Jason (SF): 

After struggling last year, Heliot Ramos has had a great bounce back year. What have been the reasons for his turn-around? What’s his ceiling?

Kyle Glaser: Evaluators actually liked Ramos a lot last year despite the numbers. All the tools to hit were there, he was just really overaggressive and got himself out a lot by swinging at bad pitches. They still saw a good swing with power and the ability to drive the ball to all fields. He learned from that first year, hemmed in his aggressiveness, and you saw the offensive ability play. His approach got a lot, lot better – to the point some now say it’s advanced – and it made a world of difference. As for his potential, you’re looking at an everyday OF who can hit for average and power. He’s a good one

Adam (Elsinore): 

Is there more to Edward Olivares than a fourth outfielder?

Kyle Glaser: Just asked an evaluator this yesterday. The answer was no.

Fonz (Milwaukee): 

Is Shane McClanahan convincing people that he belongs in the rotation long-term? Where has his new control/command come from?

Kyle Glaser: He’s starting to slow down and control his body better. Most still see him as a future reliever, but he’s moving in the right direction toward maybe sticking as a starter.

Adam (There): 

If you’re a rebuilding team like the Orioles or Tigers, would you be open to trading a quality 50+FV prospect to a team with 40-man concerns (Yankees, Rays, Padres, etc) for as many 40s and 45s as you can reasonably carry?

Kyle Glaser: If you’re a rebuilding team you should be stockpiling as many good players with control as you possibly can. Trading a potential everyday player (50) for a bunch of backup/utility guys (40/45s) would be about the single worst thing you could do.

Cory (Minnesota): 

When do you think Gavin Lux will get called up? Major League comparison?

Kyle Glaser: If they’re going to do it they should probably do it soon. It makes sense to get him as many big league reps as possible so that he’s in the best position possible to contribute in the postseason. At the same time, the Dodgers have a pretty impeccable track record of knowing when to call guys up and when they are ready to make an impact, so you kind of have to defer to their judgement in all honesty and assume they’re right. They’ve earned that. As for comps, let’s just let him be him.

Adam (Elsinore): 

If Joey Cantillo’s velocity spike is sustainable, what does that mean for his long term outlook?

Kyle Glaser: Cantillo’s always had the projectable 6-4 frame he could fill out and he was one of the youngest players in his draft class. The hope when the Padres drafted him and gave him 300K-plus was that the velocity would grow, and it has. It’s certainly possible he keeps growing and learns to hold this recent spike as he gets older and stronger. If he does, that’s a really nice back of the rotation starter.

Brad (NJ): 

Austin Hays finally healthy this year and has been hot. HE has nothing blocking him in Balt. Does he come up in Sept and what do you expect from him as a player?

Kyle Glaser: Need to clarify that he’s been healthy recently, not this year. He missed the first six weeks of the season with a thumb injury and another three weeks this summer with a hamstring strain. He’s certainly had a really good last five games, but prior to that he was in a 6 for 51 slump. How he finishes August will go a long way toward determining if he gets a September callup. As for what to expect from him, it’s hard to feel overly confident about anything given all the injuries he’s sustained.

Old Timer (Raleigh): 

Thoughts on Gus Varland given his performance at High A?

Kyle Glaser: The A’s got something there. Up to 95 with a good CB and CH. Great mound presence too. Hasn’t pitched since July 1 though and am not sure why. Will try and find out this weekend when Stockton comes in to Lake Elsinore

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week