Kyle Glaser Chat (8/21/18)

Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody. Happy Tuesday and hope you’re week is going well. Look forward to getting started. Let’s get to it

Brett (Miami): 

Hey thanks for doing a chat. Who are some players outside the top 100 right now that you could see making big jumps in ranking next year? Do we start to see more of the 2017 IFAs climbing the ranks?

Kyle Glaser: Ronny Mauricio with the Mets fits the bill on both accounts. Naturally there are some strides to be made, but the pedigree and tools are there and he’s shown a lot of flashes here in his first year stateside

Scott (New Glarus): 

What do you make of Corey Ray’s season? He has shown big power (25 HR) and speed (33 SB), but the BA (.246) and K rate (29%) don’t look very good.

Kyle Glaser: It’s huge step forward from last year. You can’t emphasize enough just how lost Ray looked at the plate last year. The strikeouts and frequency of contact are worrisome and point to a fourth/fifth outfielder rather than an everyday guy, but that’s still a huge step up from last year, when he looked like a non-prospect

William (Pensacola, FL): 

What is your most realistic time table for Jo Adell assuming he finishes the year in the Arizona Fall League ?

Kyle Glaser: He’ll have a chance to be in the majors by the end of next season. He’s tremendously talented but there are still some approach things to hammer out before he’ll be ready to face big league pitching. It’s all in there, just might take a little bit of time. If Adell beats the time frame though and gets up there sooner, I wouldn’t be shocked

William (Pensacola, FL): 

Any guesses on to why Taylor Trammelll is still at High A Daytona ?

Kyle Glaser: Because he’s hit .208/.283/.354 since coming back from the Futures Game. Trammell is very talented, but there’s still a lot of things he needs to work on. He’s not a fast-mover, he’s going to take some time

Steve (Chicago): 

Jake Gatewood has huge LHP/RHP splits (Vs LHP .326/.398/.488/.886 this year and .299/.366/.545/.911 last year). Does he have a chance to be a right handed platoon 1B/3B/OF?

Kyle Glaser: That’s what he projects to be, and did last year as well. Think Mike Morse

Scott (New Glarus): 

Does Quintin Torres-Costa have mlb LOOGY upside or is he just org filler?

Kyle Glaser: When I saw him in the Fall League last year it was pure organizational filler, but I’m a big believer in earning the right to pitch in the big leagues, and he’s earned the right to get a chance to show what he can do with his performance this year in Biloxi and Colorado Springs

Coop (Hoboken): 

Besides Vlad Jr is there a better hitter in the minors than Kirilloff?

Kyle Glaser: When Luis Urias is right he’s the best pure hitter in the minors outside of Vlad Jr. But I wouldn’t think you’re crazy if you wanted to argue Kiriloff

Scott (New Glarus): 

It is very early in their careers, but are there any 2018 draftees that are jumping out to you more now than when they were drafted?

Kyle Glaser: Any time a HS draftee skips the GCL, pounds the Appy Leagye and gets bumped to low Class A based on merit, it jumps out. We knew Nolan Gorman was good, and that his power was real, but the advanced level of hittability he’s shown jumps out in a huge way

Tushar (Poolesville): 

Thanks for the chat! How does Wander Franco stack up against the other elite SS prospects (Tatis, Bichette, Rodgers, etc)?

Kyle Glaser: The three you mentioned before are also elite hitters who are better shortstops than Franco, so they are a tier ahead right now, but Franco is right there in the next group

Cam (Barrie): 

Is Jordan Groshans close to being a top 100 prospect

Kyle Glaser: No. There’s a lot of guys with excellent pedigree doing exceptionally well in the upper minors right now, and they’re all ahead on the pecking order. Similar levels of talent and much closer.

Tyler (AL): 

Do you see Keibert Ruiz repeating Double A again next year or do you think the Dodgers promote him to AAA? Could he make the big league club in 2019?

Kyle Glaser: Assuming Grandal walks in free agency, that would leave Barnes and Farmer to handle to big league catching duties, with Will Smith (who is playing more 3B now to make room for Ruiz but is actually a better defensive catcher) the third man up. It’s always possible, and Ruiz is a special talent, but if I were a betting man I’d say Ruiz spends most of next year in Triple-A and breaks into the majors in 2020, which would still make him a 21-22 year old catcher in the big leagues, which is incredibly rare and a testament to his talent

Chuck (Anaheim): 

What is Jose Suarez’s ceiling? The numbers at AAA have been mediocre but he’s only 20. How has his velocity been holding up?

Kyle Glaser: He’s sitting 91-92, touch 94 in Salt Lake as he was earlier in the year, and his ceiling is a really good No. 4 starter with a chance to put up No. 3 production in his best years. Three quality pitches, including a plus change at its best, and a good feel to pitch from a young lefty are always qualities to feel good about

Adam (Wisconsin): 

Ivan Herrera is putting up good numbers, what’s the word on his overall game at the plate and behind it?

Kyle Glaser: Ivan Herrera ranked for the Cardinals last year in the Prospect Handbook supplement. His full scouting report is available to subscribers here, with the answers to your questions. https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/6347-ivan-herrera/

Bill (Best Coast): 

When will the Angels get some pitchers like Mike Clevinger? Sure seems like they’re just intent on wasting all of Trout’s and Simmons’ primes waiting for Ohtani and Richards to put together healthy years

Kyle Glaser: Well they had Mike Clevinger, sooooo…..but seriously, going into any season relying on Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Shoemaker all to remain healthy is naive, and has been for three years now. Getting the newer, fresh wave of healthy arms – Barria already up, Canning and Suarez to follow – will be critical for the Angels to take steps towards success. Relying on the aforementioned guys to year in and year out to actually stay on the mound is a terrible, terrible plan

Colonel (Oxford, MS): 

Thanks for the chat. I find myself intrigued by the athleticism of Daulton Varsho. Do you think he will remain a catcher? What sort of career do you think his is most likely to have? Thanks again!

Kyle Glaser: Hey Colonel, my pleasure. Varsho is interesting. He’s hit over defense, but the defense is fine. The ultimate expectation is he’ll actually be kind of like a lefthanded Austin Barnes – rotate between catcher and second base, get a lot of ABs and stick on a major league roster in that NL utility role as a good complementary piece on a contending club,

Satchel (Las Vegas): 

Austin Hays been up and down this year, mostly down. Where do you see him fitting into Baltimore plans, meaning everyday OF, bench player? When does he get to Camden yards? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Hays has missed a lot of time with injuries this year, and to be honest he gets a mulligan. There’s still the ability in there to be an everyday, power-hitting outfielder, and I lean toward him fulfilling that projection and getting into the Orioles lineup regularly by next season. This was just kind of a lost year.

Derrick (DC): 

Has Victor Robles stock gone down? He hasn’t exactly been tearing AAA up. Also worried about the power when I’ve generally seen positive 50/55 grades for his power. Last year he was a extra base hitting machine. This year a singles hitter. One could also assume coming back from a serious wrist/elbow injury could have a factor on his hitting this year.

Kyle Glaser: It’s a lost year injury wise, so it’s hard to knock him down completely. But at the same time, I do think people got too overcooked on him (good athlete, good defender, but not an elite prospect has generally been my thoughts) but others I respect think higher of him. But I wouldn’t crush him over what’s happened this year. Next year will be important for him.

Tatum (Clearwater): 

Seems like Kansas City focused 2018 draft on power arms, who makes into the rotation in KC and when? Singer, Kowar, Lynch, Bubic, and Cox.

Kyle Glaser: They focused on all kinds of college arms, not all of them are power. Lynch is 89-92, Bubic is similar but can get to a tick or two higher. At the end of the day for every one of five pitching prospects, odds are one ends up a starter, one ends up the bullpen and the others don’t make it. I’d bet on Singer being the one who makes it into the rotation, pick your favorite of the others who ends up in the bullpen

Spencer (Atlanta): 

Which Braves pitching prospects do you see as part of the Braves starting rotation next year?

Kyle Glaser: This is kind of a trick question, because while we all think of a starting rotation as five pitchers, the fact is the average ML team now uses 11-12 different SPs a season, and many of them aren’t just spot starters but guys who actually make a significant number of starts. Foltynewicz, Newcomb and Gausman have three spots, I’d bet Teheran is still in there when all is said and done, so that really only leaves open one spot in the initial starting five. So if that’s what you’re asking, the answer is one, and I’d bet on it being Soroka as long as he’s healthy

Robert (Wathena): 

Kyle, give me an existing MLB comp to Eloy Jimenez? What are the Sox waiting on? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Offensively? Yoenis Cespedes when he’s healthy. .280-.290 with 30+ homers and some serious light tower power. As for what they’re waiting for, I think we all know the answer to that #servicetime

Satchel (Las Vegas): 

Kyle, Toronto appears to have some talent knocking on the door. Could we see Jansen, Guerrero, Bichette, and Biggio in the 2019 starting lineup for the Jays? And how man bags can Bichette swipe in full season?

Kyle Glaser: On Opening Day? Jansen would be the only one of those three I’d expect to see on the Opening Day roster. But at some point next year, yes, I think all four could eventually be in the lineup together, probably more toward the end of the year. And Bichette has the speed and instincts to swipe 20 bags a year, but keep in mind Toronto historically doesn’t run – they have just 60 SB attempts as a team this year, had 65 last year, and 78 the year before, always in the bottom 5-6 teams in baseball. Some of that is personnel based, but it’s also part of the coaching staff/front office direction. Unless that changes, he may not get the opportunities to steal as many bags as he potentially could

Barrett (Maryland): 

Alot of people on here were saying a month ago that Adell would be the pick over Lewis in 2017 hindsight redraft. But Lewis just continues to hit. Is that now murkier?

Kyle Glaser: To me they are 1-2 in some order in a hindsight redraft. I wouldn’t argue with you either way.

Mike (Virginia): 

Any chance the Nationals give Carter Kieboom a taste this September?

Kyle Glaser: He’s 20 years old and has played 51 games above A-ball. It would be foolish and unnecessary for the Nationals to bring him up

Tatum (Clearwater, FLa): 

What is the prognosis on Loaisiga in NY? He only threw one inning last Friday in A. Why does NY keep jumping over Sheffield? Sheffield’s numbers don’t jump off the paper, is he a top of the rotation guy, more of a mid-rotation?

Kyle Glaser: Sheffield has always projected as more mid-rotation. I suggest you consult the BA prospect handbook, which has the grade that lets you know the type of potential he and everyone else possesses. It’s always a been a mid-rotation grade, albeit a high-end one, on Sheffield

Devin (Georgia): 

I know this keeps coming up on here but Ronald Acuna Jr. has been on fire recently. Does he have a clear higher ceiling than Juan Soto?

Kyle Glaser: We had Acuna as the better-ranked prospect at every point this season while he and Soto were both still prospect eligible. That should tell you your answer right there

Robert (Wathena): 

Kyle, does Yordan Alvarez get the call this year, Hou seems stacked in every facet of the diamond. If he does come up, what do you expect for playing time and production?

Kyle Glaser: Alvarez only gets the call if he’s a clear upgrade in left field over the production Houston is getting. While that isn’t exactly a high bar to clear right now, batting .235 with a .776 OPS in Fresno isn’t exactly a compelling case for Alvarez to clear that bar.

Melvin (Richmond CA): 

Gavin Lux just continues to hit.I can’t see why he’s not a top 50 prospect. Any chance he can stick at short long term?

Kyle Glaser: Lux absolutely has a chance to stay there, which is a testament to how much work he’s put in at the position, because the answer to that question last year was a resounding no from most evaluators. Still, there’s an ultimate expectation he probably ends up at second base just because he’ll make too many throwing errors from SS. As for a top 50 prospect, evaluators generally see Lux as a really good, everyday player, but not a future potential All-Star as most of the Top 50 prospects are, so that’s why he’s on the outside looking in presently, but I have a feeling he’ll move up a good bit on the 2019 list

Glen (Detroit): 

Yo, Kyle whats good! I’m worried. Is Michael Kopech the next Tyler Glasnow? Big right hander throws hard, strikes out a ton in minors but in big leagues control gets exposed. Not that the book is closed on Glasnow at all but adjustment.

Kyle Glaser: Kopech is a better athlete than Glasnow and he’s around the plate a lot more. I feel better about Kopech reaching his ceiling than Glasnow, but keep in mind Kopech will absolutely have some struggles in the majors. He’s the kind of guy who takes his lumps and figures it out by the end of seasons, and pitchers generally take a little longer anyway. Both are excellent arms you are happy to have on your roster, but having seen a good bit of both of them the last two years, I’d go Kopech

Warren (New London): 

What do evaluators think of Mickey Moniak at this point? He has been hitting well enough lately to make last week’s Hot Sheet. Is his defense getting any better? Do you think he’ll start next season in Reading?

Kyle Glaser: Both the evaluations and the historical precedents for Moniak’s performance are that of an extra outfielder. At the same time, he’s very young and still has a lot of physical maturity left to come, so no one should be shocked if he’s a late bloomer of sorts.

Warren (New London): 

Are the Phillies ever going to get a first round pick right? I know it’s a small sample, but Alec Bohm has been terrible at Williamsport.

Kyle Glaser: Cornelius Randolph, Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley…the Phillies have a pretty sketchy track record of evaluating hitting ability (although Haseley has been better recently and is in AA, not a bad debut by any means). Every scouting group/organization has their blind spots, and that appears to be the Phillies based on their track record

Jordan (San Diego): 

The Padres have 9 in the top 100 but the depth of the system beyond that has been highly touted. If you had to estimate how many SD prospects would be in the 101-200 range what would it be?

Kyle Glaser: As the guy who does the Padres system, for me they’d have 19 of the top 200 prospects in baseball

 

Kyle (Chicago): 

Will Keston Hiura be MLB ready by June 2019?

Kyle Glaser: As long as his elbow stays healthy and allows him to make the plays he needs to at second base, yes

Jimmy (STL): 

Sure it’s only the DSL, but destroying any league like Malcom numez is doing is impressive. Do you see him as the Cards next big time prospect after Gorman?

Kyle Glaser: Not yet. You’ve still got guys like Andrew Knizner, Ryan Helsley, Elehuris Montero, guys with some real ceiling/tools to impact a big league roster who are further up the ladder. Nunez has been excellent, but as you said, it’s the DSL

Bill (St. Louis): 

Was Tyler O’neill’s defense underrated throughout the minors like Bader or has this just been a metric outlier?

Kyle Glaser: We had him as a solid-average to above-average defensive outfielder, so he’s doing what was projected. Although right now, heck he looks closer to plus.

Tom (Peoria): 

I’m surprised Elehuris Montero is not on the Cardinals top 10. Top 100 doesn’t seem like it should be a huge stretch either. Putting up a .900+ OPS at 2 full season levels at age 19 is what top prospects do. Is it his defense holding down his rankings?

Kyle Glaser: He was in the Top 10, and then a couple people inside the Cardinals org push Carlson pretty hard over him and, because we trust their scouting acumen as a group, we listened. That said, if I could do it over again, I’d have Montero in there. His defense is playable, and his bat is absolutely real. He’s a better prospect than indicated on the midseason Top 10, and that will be rectified in the 2019 Handbook

Justin (Tucson, AZ): 

Peter Alonso has a Paul Golschmidt feel as a big bat first baseman that’s an under the radar peospect (sub top 50). He’s also not a young top prospect as a 24 year old, which is also similar to Goldschmidt. Am I too high on Alonso comparing him to Goldy? What about an Edwin Encarnacion comp?

Kyle Glaser: Peter Alonso has been one of the most challenging prospects for us at BA this year. I wasn’t here when Goldschmidt was a prospect, but apparently that Double-A year is when the raves became extraordinarily loud, and he would have been a top 10, top 20 prospect had he not graduated from eligibility. Similar thing with Hoskins last year, when I saw him for the first time in the Futures Game and then shortly after playing for Lehigh Valley, I honestly cursed under my breath because I realized immediately we had him way, way, way too low. Alonso you get a lot more hemming and hawing from evaluators, and to be honest a lot of the things I’m hearing said about him in the PCL are similar to what was said about AJ Reed, and how it was clear in Triple-A what he was doing wouldn’t play in the majors. But at the same time, you can’t argue with Alonso’s track record and the production. I would just say right now that Goldschmidt and Hoskins, despite people initially being low, the drumbeat from people around the game got really loud as they hit the high minors. That isn’t happening with Alonso

Michael (Raleigh NC): 

Other than Luzardo, do the A’s have any healthy pitchers in the high minors likely to crack the major league rotation in 2019?l

Kyle Glaser: They don’t really have many healthy pitching prospects period, so no. Puk, Holmes, Kaprielian, etc. All hurt

Rick (SC): 

Has there ever been a rebuild like the Braves before? Basically, extremely heavy on pitching and breaking in so many young starters in the same season?

Kyle Glaser: The Giants broke Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez into the majors together in 2006-07 (followed of course by Bumgarner making his ML debut in 09). But the Braves actually got their new-wave hitters up faster than the Giants did. Acuna, Albies, etc came up in the same two-year stretch as most of their pitchers – The Giants had Posey, Sandoval, Crawford, Belt, start coming in successively in 09, 10, 11, 12, after most of the pitchers came up. So in a way, the Giants actually went more “pitchers first, then hitters” in their ascent then the Braves actually have

Richard (So Cal): 

Could Carter Kieboom end up being a better hitter and prospect than Brendan Rodgers ?

Kyle Glaser: Brendan Rodgers is the better hitter with more power. There’s a reason there is a 34-spot separation between them in the Top 100. Two completely different tiers of prospects.

Moe (Springfield): 

Is Austin Meadows starting to look more like David Murphy – a nice do-it-all backup – than a starting-caliber player? I love these chats and really appreciate your time! Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Meadows shows you a little more power than Murphy did (not that Murphy didn’t have power, we’re just talking about Meadows hitting some long, long home runs) and ultimately I’d bet he figures out how to access it, so that’d make him a pretty darn good starter. But if the “bad scenario” is he’s Murphy and plays 10 years in the majors including starting on back-to-back World Series teams….that’s a darn good player no one should be ashamed of being

Dan (Connecticut): 

Estevan Florial’s strikeout rate is around 20% since returning to Tampa a month ago, how optimistic should I be about this?

Kyle Glaser: It’s certainly a good sign, but we need to see it over a larger sample than 29 games before making any definitive statements

Kyle Glaser: Ok everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for chatting, and have a great rest of your week