Key Lessons To Learn From International Signing Reviews

It’s easy to see now why so many scouts are ecstatic about Yankees righthander Luis Severino. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that sits at 94-96 mph and touches 99. He mixes in a plus changeup and a hard slider that he’s inconsistent with but can be a swing-and-miss pitch. Not bad for someone who just turned 22 and is coming off a dominant two-month finish in his rookie year.

Severino looks like an obvious frontline starter now, but he didn’t show up to the Yankees system throwing 99 mph. He wasn’t a July 2 signing, landing a $225,000 bonus from the Yankees in December 2011 at age 17. Severino impressed the Yankees’ scouts in the Dominican Republic with his athleticism, quick arm and two-pitch mix of a fastball up to 93 mph and a power slider with sharp, late tilt and depth. That’s what we wrote about Severino soon after he signed in our 2011 International Reviews.

Over the next week in our International Reviews, we will have scouting reports on more than 200 of the top international signings from last year, with information on every player who signed for at least $100,000 and lower bonus sleepers to watch. Many of those names will be familiar to BA readers from our July 2 coverage, but some of those players have changed over the past eight months and a lot of names will be new.

I’ve learned a lot through the years talking to scouts about their own international signings and about players who signed with other clubs. The scouting process itself, what scouts look for and how players develop in Latin America is different than it is for draft prospects in the United States. These are some of the most important factors to keep in mind when reading these reports and evaluating young Latin American prospects at this level.

Tools Vs. Skills

Scouts break down players in detail, but on a broader level, you can categorize each player somewhere along the spectrum of two different scales. One of those scales is a player’s raw tools and athleticism. The other is his present ability, game skills and overall instincts for the game. These are all baseball players, but some have very little baseball game experience, while others grew up playing in organized games from an early age. The youth baseball culture in a player’s home country or the region within his country often makes a huge difference.

Players with the best of both worlds, combining great tools with a high baseball IQ and the ability to hit in games at age 16 are rare and tend to get paid big money. But even among the highest-paid players, most stand out for either one or the other. Twins shortstop Wander Javier has some of the best tools and athleticism in the class—which is why he signed for $4 million—but his ability to hit in games will need time to come around. Royals shortstop Jeison Guzman ($1.5 million) doesn’t have any one premium tool, but he grew up playing in a lot of games. His overall game awareness at shortstop and in the batter’s box helped separate him as one of the best 2015 prospects.

Each team has different philosophies in what they value. Some organizations place a premium power and physicality, some prioritize athleticism and the ability to play a premium position, while others put more of an emphasis on feel for the game or present hitting ability. The lower you go in bonuses, the wider the gap grows between a player’s raw tools/athleticism and game skills, so a team that generally prefers a more polished player might roll the dice on the athletic outfielder with plus speed, a quick bat and a projectable body but a raw hitting approach for $150,000 that they wouldn’t consider at a higher price.

Players Change Quickly

When you are signing kids at age 16, they are going to change quickly. While we expect development from 21-year-old college juniors and even more changes from 18-year-old high school seniors, the physical and skill changes from 16-year-old signings out of Latin America are far greater than we see anywhere else. Since many of these players are being scouted and reaching oral agreements with teams when they’re 15, there can be significant differences between the time they reach a deal and their first pro game.

The biggest changes often stem from physical maturity. Sometimes it’s players growing taller. It’s not uncommon to hear of a player growing a an inch or two during the scouting process or after signing. That can help improve a player’s physical upside, but it could also make it harder for a player to control their longer limbs and potentially outgrow a premium position.

More common is for players to see increases in their tools as they get stronger. Some players like Dodgers outfielder Starling Heredia or White Sox outfielder Franklin Reyes are physically mature for their age, but many players signed at 16 are just physically weak, especially if they came from a poor background and weren’t eating well. There are only so many synonyms to describe skinny, wiry, lanky and physically underdeveloped players, so you’re going to hear those words a lot in our International Reviews.

Once players sign, start getting better nutrition and begin a professional strength and conditioning program, it’s typical for them to add 10-20 pounds of good weight quickly (though some have a tendency to grow sideways). Arm strength for pitchers and position players improve, the ball starts to jump off their bats with greater exit speed and some players even start running faster, though projecting speed upwards is one of the hardest things to predict.

Nobody Changes More Than Pitchers

Putting aside Cuban players and Mexican League signings, there were 25 players who signed for at least $1 million last year. All of them are position players. The highest-paid pitcher last year was Cardinals righthander Alvaro Seijas, who got $762,500 and could have had more had his agent played his negotiating cards differently, but it’s a striking difference in how teams spend their money.

Several teams just don’t believe in paying premium money for 16-year-old pitching in Latin America, pointing to the success of teams finding quality arms for lower bonuses, often well after July 2. At 16, a position player might be able to show plus tools already, but it’s rare for a pitcher to have anything truly plus in his repertoire. Even the hardest throwers at 16 are mostly only topping out in the low-90s. At that age, scouts are looking for a projectable frame to add weight, quick arm speed (which isn’t the same as present fastball velocity), a smooth delivery and clean arm action that portend future velocity gains and the ability to throw strikes.

Few throw a legitimately plus breaking ball, with most lacking a truly defined curveball or slider. Many of them are throwing some type of in-between slurve, with scouts looking for pitchers who have the ability to impart tight spin even if it’s inconsistent. A good changeup at that age is rare—many pitchers only learn to throw one after they sign.

Pitching, I believe, is more development-sensitive than hitting. Gaining weight, getting stronger, starting a shoulder strengthening program and a regular throwing routine can make a big difference for a pitcher. Once a young pitcher gets with a team or a pitching coach that knows what they’re doing, slight modifications with his mechanics or repertoire can transform a pitcher’s stuff or overhaul his command. Hitters can make adjustments too, but it’s hard to bet on a hitter improving his hand-eye coordination or overhaul an ingrained movement pattern like a swing that he’s had most of his life. Yet there are several cases of pitchers signed just last year who have added several miles per hour to their fastballs and pitchers signed in the last few years who have greatly improved their control because they’re now strong enough to be able to repeat their mechanics more consistently.

Most Signings Will Fail

The reality is that most of these players will not reach the big leagues. Many of them won’t make it out of A-ball. Some won’t get past the short-season leagues. When it comes to predicting the futures of 16-year-old players—especially in the context of amateur baseball in Latin America—the success rate overall is always going to be on the low end. Even the ones who do make it to the majors are mostly 4-7 years away from getting there.

But within a few years, some of these players are going to be the best prospects in baseball, and others will be quality prospects making their way up the ladder. From the slew of pitchers throwing 87-91 mph, some of them are going to be touching 99 mph in the next couple of years, while others might never add another tick to their fastballs.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems obvious that Luis Severino can pitch at the top of a rotation, but his scouting report when he signed was similar to a lot of young, projectable arms signing for similar prices today. Being able to trace these players’ stories from the time they sign up to their journeys through the minors and on to when they reach the major leagues is part of the fun. Separating which ones will be able to make that leap before it happens is too, and it’s what makes the job so challenging for international scouts.