Kansas City Royals Top 10 Prospects Chat

Moderator: J.J. Cooper will be here at 2 p.m. Eastern to chat about the Royals’ prospects.

Grant (NYC): How many of these guys are likely to make the top 100?
J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Thanks for coming out. If you’re a Royals’ fan, I’m imagining you are still walking around with a grin on your face. I would say there is one slam dunk and three candidates. Mondesi will be a pretty high Top 100 guy, Zimmer, Starling and Almonte all have their cases, but none are guarantees. The system is thinner now, obviously, after promotions and the trades that brought in Cueto and Zobrist last season.

Eric (KC): I'm surprised Alec Mills' great season didn't merit a top ten ranking. Your thoughts?
J.J. Cooper: Mills didn’t miss by a whole lot and he’s easily in the Top 30 for the Prospect Handbook. There’s not a ton of upside to Mills, but he’s a fast-moving pitcher with enough stuff to be a potential back-end starter. Not bad for a former walk-on.

@Jaypers413 (IL): As BA's resident Indy guy, what did you think of Fuenmayor's season? Will he be in the next ten?
J.J. Cooper: No. I love Balbino, but he has to thread the needle to have a significant big league career. He’s a DH who can play 1B in a pinch, which makes it harder to make a roster already. Throw in a knee injury that he has to work his way back from and you’re looking at a prospect who still faces a lot of skepticism. Fuenmayor had a monster year last year in AA and AAA and went unpicked in the Rule 5 draft–that says that no team out there thought he was a slam dunk prospect since he’s got upper level time and would have cost only $25K to take a chance on him. I think he has a decent shot to be a big leaguer which is a massive jump from where he was two years ago, but he’s still not close to being a slam dunk future big league regular.

Kenneth (Cascadia): I think I remember the last bull pen spot coming down to Brian Flynn and Ryan Madson last spring. Madson had a great year, and Flynn immediately got hurt. Can Flynn still have a MLB impact? Chance to start?
J.J. Cooper: The Royals sure seem like they see Flynn as a reliever. He’s ready to go and I would expect he will battle in spring training for a spot in the Royals’ pen. Flynn’s stuff does play up a little more out of the pen and he can be more than a lefty matchup guy, so he has a shot to be a useful reliever, although in K.C. he will be option 5 or 6 at best in a very deep pen at best.

Erik (Maine): Many scouting reports have banished Kyle Zimmer to the bullpen, yet Picollo said on MLB-Radio that he'll be in the Royals rotation early in 2016. So my question to you J.J. is where do you stand on Zimmer? Short-term and long-term?
J.J. Cooper: If you read the write-up in our report we don’t expect him to relieve. I wouldn’t have put him No. 2 as a reliever. Zimmer still has front-line starter’s stuff, he just has to prove that he can take a turn every five days and then do it again five days later. That’s something he’s never been able to do as a pro. I do think that there is still a decent shot that Zimmer will have a solid career as a starter, but there are a lot of skeptics out there and I understand why they are skeptical.

Ken (Lakewood CA): Wow, this seems to be the lowest level of ML prospects for the KC organization in a long time. Bottom third of MLB clubs? Guessing Mondesi makes the top 100 prospects and Zimmer has the talent, but his health is such a question mark. Starling at #3 - ouch! If they can't sign their free agents at the end of the 2017 season, they'll need to bring in players from other teams. Looks like KC has a lot of work to do to maintain success? Are you optimistic for the Royals future after 2017?
J.J. Cooper: Here’s the decision Kansas City faces in 2016 and 2017. Even after re-signing Gordon the Royals face a lot of free agents after the 2017 season and will have a number of other guys who will be getting significant money in arbitration. The Royals could stave off hitting that cliff by trading away close-to-free agent talent in 2016-2017. But why would they do that? The Royals have managed to keep together the vast majority of a team that made the World Series in 2014 and won it all in 2015. Yes, Kansas City lost Zobrist and Cueto, but you could argue that this team right now is every bit as good or maybe a little better than the team that headed to spring training last year. And it’s worth remembering that the Royals were arguably the best team in the American League last year before they traded for Zobrist and Cueto. So if you are Kansas City, you try to keep this ride going. If you can contend for another title in 2016 and/or 2017 and then the team somewhat craters? You go for it and deal with the consequences later. If this was an 85-win team that might be a foolhardy approach, but with a 95-win team that is World Series champs? You have to try to keep the window open as long as you can.

Steve (Portland): Are we close to seeing Zimmer break out, or become the newest member of the Royals Bullpen? He would have ranked below Manaea and Finnegan?
J.J. Cooper: I would say behind Manaea (and Cody Reed) and ahead of Finnegan. Got to go with the lefty who has been more durable and is a close-to-ready starter. I think there is a decent shot Finnegan is a reliever and still think Zimmer’s stuff is a little better so I would probably have Zimmer ahead of him.

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): What can you tell me about OF Lane Adams? He's a little old to still be a prospect but has shown some nice speed and growing power and an ability to hit. Does he fit at all in any kind of plans for a future in KC or anywhere in the majors? Thanks for the chat !
J.J. Cooper: I feel like last year was a step back for Lane. There are some tools to be a useful backup outfielder but he’s caught in an insane numbers game. With Gordon back the Royals have 2 OF spots set (Gordon and Cain) with two more big league vets (Orlando and Dyson) making solid claims to big league jobs. On top of that you have Bubba Starling, Brett Eibner and Adams and Reymond Fuentes as CF candidates, Jose Martinez and Jorge Bonifacio as corner OF candidates and Terrance Gore as the fastest man in the AL. All of those players are currently on the 40-man roster. That’s 10 OF on the 40-man roster before Gordon’s deal becomes official. Eibner had a solid 2015 season that puts him back ahead of Adams in the pecking order and Starling is ahead of both of them. If I was guessing which would be the first OF dropped from the 40-man it would be Fuentes or Adams.

Steve (Evansville, IN): Does an organization's philosophy effect your ratings? For example, Bubba Starling definitely fits what they Royals want to do (except for striking out), but might be a bad fit for an organization that values OBP/offense above all else.
J.J. Cooper: It does affect it at least a little in that you have to look how a player would fit on a big league roster. Starling’s strengths (excellent defense, athleticism, some power and speed) fit Kauffman Stadium very well. It makes him a potentially useful big leaguer even without hitting for batting average. Placed in a much smaller outfield, Starling wouldn’t necessarily be as valuable.

TJ (Olympia): Is Gasparini's ceiling higher than even Mondesi's?
J.J. Cooper: No. Mondesi’s tools are insane and he’s a much safer bet to remain at shortstop. But Gasparini’s ceiling is the highest of the Royals’ position prospects not named Mondesi.

Steve (Evansville): A little surprised, but definitely not shocked, that Staumont did not make the tail end of the list. Any slight sign of improvement with his control?
J.J. Cooper: Sorry, I can’t comfortably put a reliever in rookie ball who walked 7 per 9 into a Top 10. No way, no how. He throws incredibly hard but the control has to get a whole lot better. There are signs he could improve it a good bit, but he’s got a lot of work to do.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): Thanks for the chat. What is the current plan for Staumont? Still a starter?
J.J. Cooper: No. He wasn’t a starter in Idaho Falls either and he never threw four innings in a game. His future role is as a reliever in the Royals’ hard-throwing pen (if his control improves).

John (New Jersey): Where would Cody Reed and Sean Manaea have ranked if they were still in the system?
J.J. Cooper: Off the top of my head, Reed would be 2 and Manaea would be 3. The Royals gave up a good bit to acquire Zobrist and Cueto. But I think every Royals fan would make that trade again. That parade seemed pretty fun.

Mick (Chicago): Surprising to see the ascension of Marten Gasparini. I know he's full of tools, so there's a lot of projection. He did however have tons of K's & E's. Do the Royals scout Europe any more so than other orgs & is there more talent?
J.J. Cooper: Everyone knew about Gasparini it wasn’t something where the Royals found a guy who no one else knew about. They did a good job of making an evaluation and getting him to sign with them. There are players worth signing out of Europe (Max Kepler!) but Kepler and Gasparini are rarities. There aren’t all that many prospects like them coming out of Europe more than one or two every few years.

John S. (New Jersey): What kept Alec Mills out of the top 10 and what are your thoughts on him?
J.J. Cooper: He’s a harder-throwing command/control starter. To cite a recent Royals prospect think Christian Binford with a little more on his fastball. Double-A will be a good test for him as his stuff will not play as well in the hitters’ parks of the Texas League, but his control gives him a chance to survive the tougher test.

LA GUY (LA): Is Montas a better pick than Zimmer?
J.J. Cooper: Montas is safer in that he has stayed healthier. But if you asked me which has more of a chance to start, I’d say Zimmer.

TJ (KC): The top 4 could conceivably graduate in 2016. How can KC avoid being a bottom 5 system next year? Does KC have the depth for enough guys to develop and replace lost talent?
J.J. Cooper: If all 4 of those guys graduate than Blewett, Russell, Watson, etc. will have to take big steps forward to keep the Royals out of the bottom 5, but that’s the cost of picking late in the draft every year and trading prospects to help win titles. It’s a much better place to be than where K.C. was 5 years ago with a terrible big league club and a top 5 org talent ranking.

John (NC): Is it time to give up on Jorge Bonifacio ever figuring it out?
J.J. Cooper: It is crazy to remember that Bonifacio won’t turn 23 until after the 2016 season begins. It depends on what you mean by “give up.” Bonifacio is unlikely to turn into a big league star but he has the pieces to be a useful big leaguer. He has significant power potential and he’s also shown before the ability to hit for average. He just hasn’t shown the ability to do both at the same time.

Steve (MI): Hi JJ, thank you for chatting today!.....what are your thoughts on Chase Vallot? Did he fall in your 11-15 range? Are they going to give him time to develop behind the plate, or will his timeline put him in a corner OF spot? Thanks for your time!
J.J. Cooper: There are still a whole lot of reasons to be concerned about Vallot staying behind the plate which plays a big part in his future potential. But K.C. has no reason to not keep trying it as the team’s catching depth is pretty thin and they have a ton of outfielders. There’s a lot of power there, obviously.

Hunter Dozier (Home): What went wrong with me this past year? Will I still be in the Handbook?
J.J. Cooper: Dozier is the most baffling prospect in the Royals’ system. His hitting approach has taken three steps backward in the past 2 years. His swing doesn’t look as good, his plate discipline has gotten worse and he’s not fielding very well at third either. He’s still in the Handbook but there’s more reason for skepticism than optimism now.

Brian (College Station, TX): With Gordon signed, the Royals payroll isn't even at 100 Mil. There is room to sign one more mid talent player. Where do they shift their focus? Starting pitching? 2nd base? RF?
J.J. Cooper: Starting pitching would be my guess. One more lower-cost addition. As far as second base, they have Colon and Mondesi to step in if Infante plays like he did last year. In right field, they have low-cost options (Dyson/Orlando/Eibner) who can match Rios’ production from last year. This team survived losing Alex Gordon for quite a while last year, so they know they can do it.

Raymond (New York): Hi JJ, just curious why Watson was ranked ahead of Russell. BA had Russell rated at #17 and Watson at #56, and Russell had a better debut in rookie ball. (it seemed that Watson was a slight reach and taken early 2nd round partly because a 2nd Indy HS RHP). thanks
J.J. Cooper: Watson’s delivery is cleaner and he’s shown that the step forward he made as a high school senior has “stuck.” Russell had a longer track record of success/stuff coming into the draft which explains why he ranked higher, but scouts who saw both of them in pro ball like Watson’s control and feel and his stuff isn’t all that much worse than Russell’s.

Terry (st louis): What does Foster Griffin need to improve upon next season?
J.J. Cooper: Griffin has to build on a solid finish to 2015. His stuff is good, not great, so he’ll have to locate and continue to refine his changeup and curveball.

Wesley L. (Kansas City, Kansas): The mid-season trades for Cueto and Zobrist really ate into our farm system. Are there any lefties in the Royals system that could possibly replace what we had with Lamb, Finnegan, Reed, and Manea?
J.J. Cooper: No that’s a massive lefty loss to make up for and there really aren’t four more guys like that to step up. Matt Strahm is the best lefty left but LHSP is a weak spot in the organization now.

Sean M (MO): Hey JJ, how does the Royals bullpen depth look in the minors?
J.J. Cooper: That’s actually a strength of the organization. Josh Staumont is the big name but you also have a number of current starters who could end up there like. Ashe Russell and Yunior Marte are two strong arms that could end up in the pen eventually. (With Russell, that won’t happen for years to come–K.C. wants him to start).

Rick (Kansas City): Do you think Bret Eibner has a chance to be the everyday right fielder for the Royals this year?
J.J. Cooper: Not as an everyday guy. Paulo Orlando and Jarrod Dyson are going to get playing time as well, but Eibner is now part of that conversation.

Ted (Omaha): Christian Colon will never justify his draft position, but it seems strange that he's never been given a chance to contribute significantly to the big league club--except when it comes to getting clutch hits in post-season games. Could Colon be a 1-2 WAR player in the bigs if given a chance everyday? Or is Mondesi the next in line to cover 2B when/if Infante craters again this season?
J.J. Cooper: Colon’s upside is as a playable everyday second baseman but I don’t think he’s likely to hold that job in Kansas City without some injuries. The team has a lot of financial incentives to give Infante one more chance to prove he’s not as bad as he’s been recently and by the time that experiment (likely) fails, Mondesi could be ready to step in and provide better defense and speed than Colon. Mondesi eventually will likely move to shortstop to replace Alcides Escobar, but his first stop is likely to be second base.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Ryan O'hearn seems to have a real power bat - just missed the top 10 I'm betting.... comment.
J.J. Cooper: Yep, didn’t miss by much. Big power but you have to have big power to be a first baseman and he needs to tone down some of the swing and miss–you can sell out for power but you need to show you still recognize what pitchers are trying to do to you.

Jeff (Twins Territory): Do you feel the Royals have the sustainability to match up with the Twins for the next five years?
J.J. Cooper: Question is worded the wrong way isn’t it? Kansas City very well could fall off in 2018 and beyond but they are the defending World Champs while the Twins are trying to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. If you are asking which team should be better in 2018-2019 it might be the Twins, but 2016-2017–give me the Royals.

J.J. Cooper: Thanks everyone for all the questions. Next up will be Ben Badler with the Tigers on Jan. 8.