J.J. Cooper MLB Prospects Chat (7/30/19)

Image credit: Sean Murphy (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone, just a reminder that my chat has been moved to 3 p.m. ET because I have a meeting. I will answer a few questions early just to give a teaser to the later chat.

Gut Z (New York): 

Which stock you buying Heliot Ramos or Estevan Florial?

J.J. Cooper: I have to say Ramos at this point. There are reasons for Florial’s stagnation, but he has stagnated. Florial reached high Class A at the end of the 2017 season. He went back to HiA in 2018 and he’s back there again. And this year he’s been worse than he was last year. Yes, he’s continued to have wrist injuries which explain his struggles, but injuries can’t just be waved away. They are a concern. If I’ve got one slightly toolsier prospect with a long run of injuries and another with a much better health record (and similar tools), I’m taking the prospect who stays healthy.

Nate (Corvallis): 

How come no love for Nick Madrigal on the Hotsheets? Hes hit in like 26 of 28 games, hitting .350 @AA. I know OPS and extra base hits are “sexy” and chicks dig the long ball. However, he’s raised his slugging and Obp since the promotion to Birmingham. He gets on base. Plays great defense, Steals bases. What more could you want from a dude that’s gonna be a better version of Davis Eckstein. The diminutive infielder that made 2 allstars and won a world series MVP. Not bad.

J.J. Cooper: Madrigal is a very interesting prospect. He has exceptional bat-to-ball skills, but the way he plays currently, his offensive contribution is largely tied to producing a very high batting average. If he hits .350, like he is Double-A, he’s a very productive offensive player, but if he hits .270, like he did in high Class A, his lack of power and his lack of walks make for a much more pedestrian stat line. When you said he raised his slugging and OBP, his isolated power and his walk rate are both roughly the same in AA (both are up very slightly). So his SLG and OBP jump are almost all tied to hitting for average. Madigral is a solid prospect and he is pulling the ball more, but his lack of power is a weird fit in today’s game.

Paul (Philadelphia): 

Broad, broad question on minor league instruction. How do you convince 18 and 19-year-olds not to forego sound hitting mechanics and strike zone discipline in favor of elevated launch angles and HR totals — in lieu of what is transpiring in MLB games? Was baseball a better GAME when Carew, Boggs, and Gwynn played it?

J.J. Cooper: I don’t think you do because with the current MLB Ball, if they have power they should try to hit home runs. Today’s game is a power-oriented game and home runs are easy enough to come by that hitters should focus on hitting them. If the environment changes, hitters should then change and adapt. There are a lot of .250-.260 hitters who are more productive than other hitters who hit .325 in today’s environment.

Rocco (Inside a Taxi in Manhattan): 

Is it time to lower Expectations on Estevan Florial ? The production doesn’t match the Tools and Hype he has received. Based on his stats, not sure he is still a Top 100 prospect. He hasn’t dominated any League he has played in.

J.J. Cooper: (Goes away, checks our rankings….comes back). Clearly we agree he’s not a Top 100 Prospect because he’s not on our Top 100 Prospect rankings.

J.J. Cooper: I have that meeting I’ll be back at 3 p.m. ET.

Andrew (Alberta): 

Can you help me get excited for Kay and Woods-Richardson? Thank you

J.J. Cooper: Kay could contribute to the rotation in 2020. If it all breaks right Simeon Woods-Richardson could be a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2023 and onward. The reason I think the return is light is I would equate where Woods-Richardson is now to where Touki Toussaint was when the Braves acquired him in 2015 (Toussaint was even higher-ceilinged but Woods-Richardson is safer because of superior control). This could work out, but I thought it was one player lighter than I expected.

Craig (Ottawa): 

Most likely player drafted in June that gets traded by tomorrow at 4 p.m. is…..

J.J. Cooper: Cory Gearrin…. Yeah, that’s not sexy I know but a) he’s a pending free agent playing for the Mariners, so there’s not much reason to hang on to him. b) everyone can use reliever depth c) his GM is Jerry DiPoto who never met a trade he wouldn’t consider.

Frank (Missouri): 

Does Elehuris Montero have the ability to be an impact bat in the future? He was exploited a bit before the hamate injury; is that merely a result of his age, or are the swing and miss issues more serious?

J.J. Cooper: Yes. The pre-injury feedback was he just wasn’t ready for the level (which makes sense because of the aggressive promotion). I think it’s not too much to worry about in the long run.

John (Denver): 

What’s your opinion on Grant Lavigne now? Looks like he really isn’t hitting in the Sally league, and your updated Rockies rank mentioned a “worrying lack of hard contact.” Should Rockies fans be concerned? Is he a guy the Rox should aim to cash out on tomorrow?

J.J. Cooper: Don’t cash out…Let’s break that down. Everyone in the game has seen his results this year and has the same info we have (and a whole lot more in many cases). So if you trade him now, you’re trading him for a modest return–no one is going to treat him as a top prospect at this moment. If Lavigne never turns it around, the team would have managed to ship him to someone else (who was hoping to turn him around) and in return the Rockies would likely receive someone similar from someone else, either a less-regarded prospect putting up good numbers or a similarly-regarded prospect who is struggling this year. Now let’s say that this year is just a blip for Lavigne. He’s struggling, but his massive performance in 2018 is more of who he actually is. If that’s the case, then cashing out now would be a very bad idea. So the downside (Lavigne is a future everyday 1B) is large, while the upside of a trade (Lavigne isn’t going to hit and so you land another modest prospect in return) is small.

Jon (Toronto): 

After the minor league season, between October to April, how do you evaluate prospects improvement during this time? Are you scouting their winter leagues etc.

J.J. Cooper: There is a TON of noise to evaluating prospects in winter ball. There are sometimes significant improvements being made, but the seasons are short, the quality of pitching/hitting is widely variable and the sample sizes are small. Jose Siri was one of the best prospect hitters in the Dominican Winter League last offseason (and that’s one of the best leagues). Siri posted a .775 OPS in AA last year and .700 OPS in Double-A this year, so that wasn’t actually a sign of massive improvement. We do cover/attend the Arizona Fall League and talk to scouts covering the winter leagues, but I would say you never want to put too much weight on what’s happening in those months because we’re talking about 50-125 PA samples.

John (Michigan): 

Why is Detroit’s farm system ranked so low according to BA? (Other publications have them much high). I know a few have taken a step back, mostly because triple A balls, but mize, Manning, Riley, skubal, Paredes, faedo, Rogers, Perez etc seems like good group.

J.J. Cooper: We have them 14th so we see them as middle of the pack. What we see is a number of interesting pitching prospects (although some with significant injury concerns) but few position prospects in full-season ball. Rodgers can really catch, he faces concerns about the bat. Isaac Paredes can hit, but he faces defensive concerns. Daz Cameron can play CF, but he’s been one of the least productive hitters in the International League. Parker Meadows and Riley Greene are both very interesting but far away. There’s more variability and risk with pitchers than hitters, so they get docked a little for having less hitting depth.

Carsen (Milwaukee): 

Who can we expect to see come up in Toronto’s bullpen after these trades?

J.J. Cooper: I don’t think you’ll see a lot of prospects coming up because with this team nowhere near contention, there’s not much incentive to add guys to the 40-man roster who you wouldn’t need to add otherwise. Patrick Murphy is on the 40-man already as is Sean Reid-Foley, so those are two possibilities.

Andrew R. (Pennsylvania): 

How much does a hitters fielding position influence ranking in the top 100? What positions move up and which positions are discounted and by how much? Any light you can shine on this would be quite helpful. Thank you for your insight.

J.J. Cooper: It matters. A 1B/below-average corner outfielder is going to have to hit a ton more than a middle infielder to play. That’s what makes ranking first baseman so hard when it comes to prospect rankings. We really believed in Yordan Alvarez and Peter Alonso’s bats, so we pushed them into the top 50 in our preseason rankings, but that was hard to do because if Alonso was 85 percent of the hitter we thought he was going to be, he’s scrapping to try to get at-bats. On the flip side, Amed Rosario hasn’t been 85 percent of the hitter we thought he would be and he’s been playing regularly for several years–the bar a shortstop has to clear is lower. To take another example, there’s little doubt that Seth Beer is one of the better hitters in the minors. He gets on-base, he has power. But he’s going to have to be one of the better hitters around to make it as a 1B/LF/DH. If he hits .280/.360/.530 he’ll play. Lose 30-40 points off each of those and itgets tougher. Cristian Pache could end up being a .250/.300/.350 MLB hitter and he’ll likely still play because his defense in center is so good.

Jesse (Wisconsin): 

What’s the reality in seeing Nate Pearson in the bigs yet this season?

J.J. Cooper: I don’t think it will happen. Toronto doesn’t need to add him to the 40-man roster in the offseason so with them out of contention (and with the arrivals of Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr to keep fans interested) I think his ETA is more likely 2020.

Ken (Lakewood CA): 

Hi JJ and thanks. Wondering if 2 catching prospects – Andrew Knizner (STL) and Austin Allen (SD) – in your opinion or from what you hear, will ever be starting catchers in the big leagues? They both seem to be bat first prospects and have been up to their big league teams this year. So I guess I’m asking if their defense will ever be good enough to make them major league catchers?

J.J. Cooper: I am more optimistic about Knizner behind the plate than Allen. My hope for Allen is that he continues to improve defensively, but also that his bat is good enough to get him some 1B time (and maybe DH is he ends up ever in the AL) to hit and be a backup catcher. I don’t see San Diego being a great fit for him long term because they have an exceptional defensive catcher, an everyday first baseman and a first base prospect (Josh Naylor) in case Eric Hosmer is ever hurt.

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. I need to get back to reporting, although so far I don’t have to write up any trades….Thanks for coming out. And as always, thank you Baseball America subscribers.