Is The Draft Really A Crapshoot? Not Exactly

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All across the major leagues, there are stars who were drafted much lower than they should have been in hindsight.

Mike Trout wasn’t selected until the 25th pick in the 2009 draft. Mookie Betts wasn’t taken until the 172nd pick in the 2011 draft. Albert Pujols famously lasted until the 402nd overall pick in the 1999 draft.

Since the inaugural draft in 1965, there have been hundreds of mid-to-late round picks, and even undrafted players, who have gone on to more prolific careers than those selected before them.

This repeated outcome, naturally, has led to many characterizations of the draft as a “crapshoot.” To be fair, luck certainly plays an element in career outcomes, primarily with regard to injuries.

When looking at the full picture, however, that characterization doesn’t quite hold.

In advance of the 2022 draft, Baseball America examined the total Wins Above Replacement, as measured by Baseball-Reference, of every player selected at each of the top 200 picks from 1965-2020. To avoid double-counting players who were drafted multiple times, only players who signed are counted in each pick’s career WAR total.

Two notable themes emerged.

First, teams historically have an excellent track record of correctly identifying the top three players in each draft and selecting them in order. Teams also have a strong track record of correctly identifying and selecting the top seven players in a draft within the top 10 picks.

Outside of the top 10 picks, however, outcomes become extremely varied. For example, players picked No. 22 overall have a higher career WAR than those picked Nos. 11-20. Players picked No. 74 overall have delivered roughly equivalent production as those drafted No. 29. Players drafted with the 109th pick have exceeded the careers of those drafted at the Nos. 21 and 24 picks, selections traditionally made in the first round. Players drafted No. 200 overall have yielded a higher career WAR than more than half of the selections made in front of them.

In the opinion of longtime scouting directors and front office officials, it’s not necessarily that the draft is a crapshoot once you get past the top 10 picks. It’s that after the top tier of talent in a draft class, the margins between the remaining players are often much thinner than perceived.

“Whether it’s three or five or seven just elite, talented kids every year, they’re almost hard not to take or screw up,” one National League scouting director said. “And then after that, the margins are way smaller. Besides the benefit of just picking first of that same kind of group of players, which is a benefit, there probably is no benefit in talent overall (picking) from 10 to 30.”

It is particularly notable how much the players selected at the top of the draft have historically exceeded their peers. Players drafted first overall have produced 1083 career WAR, more than 400 career WAR more than players drafted at any other pick. Players drafted No. 2 (681.2) and No. 3 (630.6) are the only other selections to have accumulated more than 600 career WAR. The only five draft positions to produce at least 500 WAR come in the top six picks.

That isn’t to say there isn’t value outside of the top of each draft. The players selected at each of the top 32 picks have cumulatively produced more than 140 career WAR, as have the players at many additional spots later in the draft.

The differences between players just get smaller and smaller the later the draft moves on. The difference between players taken No. 1 overall and No. 10 overall is more than 600 career WAR, an average of more than 10 WAR per player since the draft began.

The difference between players taken No. 11 overall and No. 30 overall is only 61 career WAR—an average of just over 1 WAR per player since the draft began—with the No. 30 picks actually outperforming the No. 11 picks.

“Honestly, the margins are pretty thin,” another longtime NL scouting director said. “When you look at the very top, there are usually a handful of guys that truly separate themselves and have either real, real standout tools or they’re more complete players and balanced with the tools packages.

“I think once you start getting to pick 10 really all the way through pick 40, it’s a lot of what the teams are looking for, what they value, because each player is flawed in a way and it just depends on what that team feels they can do with the player’s strengths and deficiencies in the development process and kind of what they value.”

Even in that context, teams have generally done a solid job of sorting draft prospects into the tiers they belong in. Based on both average total WAR and average WAR per player, players drafted between Nos. 1-10 have outperformed those drafted between Nos. 11-30, who in turn have outperformed those drafted between Nos. 31-50, and so on.

While individual pick numbers have exceeded the range around them—the No. 185 overall pick, randomly, has been oddly lucrative for teams—clubs generally have been accurate in how they group players in each draft class.

“We always thought that (it’s) the first five or 10 players and then there is a line, and then there is another line probably around like pick 50, and then another line at pick 100 and then it’s all kind of almost the same,” another NL scouting director said. “But we’ve always used the mark of if we can get two of our top 25, which ends up usually being two players taken in the top 50 (picks), that was the goal. (Based on) some of our research and data, if you can get two of your top 25 on your board, that’s a winning ticket.”

MLB Draft Pick Outcomes By bWAR, 1965-2020

Pick Nos.	Average Total WAR	WAR Per Player
1-10	548.1	9.8
11-30	263.9	4.7
31-50	142.2	2.5
51-100	93.0	1.7
101-150	51.2	0.9
151-200	37.4	0.7

Source: Baseball-Reference

Even with the success of hundreds of mid-to-late round picks in the major leagues, a full accounting shows the draft is far from a crapshoot at the top, and that teams generally get it right.

Outcomes are much less consistent outside the top 10 picks, and there is an argument to be made that the draft is a crapshoot within certain tiers once you get past the top 10. But overall, teams generally at least get right which players belong in which tiers right through the top 200 picks.

Pick No.	Total WAR*	Average WAR*	Best Player
1	1083	19.3	Alex Rodriguez
2	681.2	12.2	Reggie Jackson
3	630.6	11.3	Robin Yount
4	594	10.6	Barry Larkin
5	418	7.5	Dwight Gooden
6	599.1	10.7	Barry Bonds
7	435	7.8	Frank Thomas
8	283.8	5.1	Todd Helton
9	281.1	5.0	Kevin Appier
10	475.5	8.5	Mark McGwire
11	291.9	5.2	Max Scherzer
12	304.8	5.4	Nomar Garciaparra
13	374.7	6.7	Manny Ramirez
14	310.2	5.5	Jason Heyward
15	287.1	5.1	Chase Utley
16	311.8	5.6	Lance Berkman
17	340	6.1	Roy Halladay
18	185.8	3.3	Willie Wilson
19	389.1	6.9	Roger Clemens
20	407.6	7.3	Mike Mussina
21	140.7	2.5	Rick Sutcliffe
22	427	7.6	Rafael Palmeiro
23	190	3.4	Jason Kendall
24	113.6	2.0	Rondell White
25	244.8	4.4	Mike Trout
26	126.7	2.3	Alan Trammell
27	123.4	2.2	Vida Blue
28	136.9	2.4	Lee Smith
29	218.4	3.9	George Brett
30	352.9	6.3	Mike Schmidt
31	143.8	2.6	Greg Maddux
32	151	2.7	Aaron Judge
33	65	1.2	Mike Gallego
34	147.5	2.6	Mark Gubicza
35	155.2	2.8	Johnny Damon
36	231.6	4.1	Randy Johnson
37	157.1	2.8	Frank Viola
38	209.5	3.7	David Wright
39	123.9	2.2	Lance Lynn
40	100.9	1.8	Kevin Tapani
41	96.4	1.7	Fred Lynn
42	93.4	1.7	Dennis Leonard
43	58.3	1.0	Bob Knepper
44	146.4	2.6	Joey Votto
45	59.8	1.1	Trevor Story
46	181.6	3.2	Scott Rolen
47	197.8	3.5	Tom Glavine
48	166.7	3.0	Cal Ripken Jr.
49	194.9	3.5	Carlos Beltran
50	162.6	2.9	Dennis Eckersley
51	3.1	0.1	Chris Haney
52	85.9	1.5	Carl Crawford
53	117.3	2.1	Gary Carter
54	118.8	2.1	Scott Sanderson
55	127.3	2.3	Bert Blyleven
56	154.1	2.8	Jimmy Key
57	154	2.8	Jon Lester
58	201.7	3.6	Tony Gwynn
59	104.2	1.9	Nolan Arenado
60	48.1	0.9	Lynn McGlothen
61	81.6	1.5	Ken Holtzman
62	64.5	1.2	Andre Ethier
63	159.2	2.8	Eddie Murray
64	96	1.7	Brian McCann
65	93.9	1.7	Dustin Pedroia
66	74.9	1.3	Chase Headley
67	212.1	3.8	Rick Reuschel
68	111.3	2.0	John Lackey
69	107.7	1.9	Tim Salmon
70	81.7	1.5	Andrelton Simmons
71	121.5	2.2	Ken Caminiti
72	182.7	3.3	Ray Lankford
73	46	0.8	Sid Fernandez
74	218.9	3.9	Graig Nettles
75	98.9	1.8	Grady Sizemore
76	109.2	2.0	Giancarlo Stanton
77	5.5	0.1	Alex Wilson
78	57.5	1.0	Freddie Freeman
79	113.8	2.0	John Olerud
80	111.6	2.0	Curtis Granderson
81	33	0.6	Jerry Mumphrey
82	64.3	1.1	Kyle Seager
83	49.8	0.9	Cliff Johnson
84	42.9	0.8	Ian Desmond
85	132.9	2.4	Denny Neagle
86	102.7	1.8	Ozzie Smith
87	28.7	0.5	Brandon Lowe
88	25.4	0.5	Kirk McCaskill
89	63.1	1.1	Justin Morneau
90	60.1	1.1	Luis Gonzalez
91	49.6	0.9	Jim Beattie
92	59.6	1.1	Mike Witt
93	40.5	0.7	Paul O’Neill
94	67.5	1.2	David Justice
95	100.4	1.8	Amos Otis
96	176.8	3.2	Rickey Henderson
97	64.5	1.2	Dave Goltz
98	65.7	1.2	Jack Morris
99	101	1.8	Lou Whitaker
100	58.1	1.0	Ron Gant
101	39.4	0.7	Jonathan Lucroy
102	15.9	0.3	Joe Price
103	29.6	0.5	Eric Plunk
104	96.9	1.7	J.T. Realmuto
105	81.2	1.5	Cliff Lee
106	141.6	2.5	Tim Raines
107	12.8	0.2	Clyde Wright
108	14.8	0.3	Ricky Nolasco
109	145.3	2.6	Dwight Evans
110	104.5	1.9	Jeff Bagwell
111	19.2	0.3	Corbin Burnes
112	77.2	1.4	Scott Erickson
113	65.3	1.2	Yadier Molina
114	26	0.5	Jonathan Papelbon
115	49.7	0.9	Michael Bourn
116	47.5	0.8	Ryan Klesko
117	78.1	1.4	Brandon Crawford
118	66.7	1.2	Mickey Tettleton
119	81.4	1.5	Sal Bando
120	14	0.3	Mickey Morandini
121	35.5	0.6	John Valentin
122	42.9	0.8	Steve Buechele
123	20.2	0.4	Steve Sparks
124	42.5	0.8	Bill Wegman
125	60	1.1	Garret Anderson
126	56.4	1.0	Bob Boone
127	77.2	1.4	Marty Pattin
128	44.6	0.8	Cecil Cooper
129	43.1	0.8	Greg Gagne
130	31.4	0.6	Derek Norris
131	36.9	0.7	Ed Whitson
132	129.7	2.3	Devon White
133	48.9	0.9	Pat Hentgen
134	70.3	1.3	Corey Kluber
135	101.6	1.8	Jamie Moyer
136	29.6	0.5	Angel Pagan
137	29.7	0.5	Joe Crede
138	60	1.1	Bill Doran
139	46.5	0.8	Lance Johnson
140	86.5	1.5	Javier Vazquez
141	20.7	0.4	C.J. Wilson
142	4.8	0.1	Rhys Hoskins
143	30.2	0.5	Gary Disacina
144	42.7	0.8	Bob Howry
145	-4.2	-0.1	Josh Hancock
146	22.1	0.4	Dave Hollins
147	29.4	0.5	Brandon Belt
148	47.2	0.8	John Burkett
149	49.8	0.9	Michael Young
150	14.8	0.3	Daniel Hudson
151	8.4	0.2	Mike Marshall
152	44	0.8	Mike Boddicker
153	9.3	0.2	Todd Pratt
154	8.5	0.2	Randy Ready
155	49.2	0.9	Brad Penny
156	12.1	0.2	Andy McGaffigan
157	47	0.8	Tom Gordon
158	10.2	0.2	Rheal Cormier
159	110.9	2.0	Charlie Hough
160	12.8	0.2	Bill Simas
161	85.4	1.5	Mike Hampton
162	35.8	0.6	Aubrey Huff
163	79.7	1.4	Von Hayes
164	14.6	0.3	Scott Karl
165	31.1	0.6	Brian Moehler
166	113	2.0	Wade Boggs
167	82.5	1.5	Willie Randolph
168	16.4	0.3	Kevin Kouzmanoff
169	99.6	1.8	Jim Edmonds
170	3.5	0.1	Bobby Madritsch
171	31	0.6	Don Slaught
172	81.3	1.5	Mookie Betts
173	2	0.0	Scott Olsen
174	29	0.5	Marco Estrada
175	33	0.6	Storm Davis
176	17.4	0.3	Bill Hall
177	1.8	0.0	Glenn Abbott
178	-1.4	0.0	Ty Blach
179	96.8	1.7	Bill Russell
180	68.9	1.2	Reggie Sanders
181	48.5	0.9	Matt Kemp
182	13.3	0.2	Pat Neshek
183	5.5	0.1	Richard Bleier
184	67.7	1.2	Ben Zobrist
185	129	2.3	Tim Hudson
186	9.8	0.2	Trevor Wilson
187	26.3	0.5	Erik Bedard
188	2.1	0.0	Andrew Bailey
189	35.3	0.6	Casey Blake
190	28.8	0.5	David Bell
191	31.5	0.6	Josh Harrison
192	12.1	0.2	Chuck McElroy
193	5.5	0.1	Matt Capps
194	37.1	0.7	Shane Victorino
195	29.1	0.5	Aaron Harang
196	14.5	0.3	Tommy Edman
197	-3.2	-0.1	Craig Stimac
198	22.4	0.4	Jody Reed
199	36.8	0.7	Tim Naehring
200	86	1.5	Eric Davis