How The Top 20 International Signings Of 2011 Have Turned Out

The journey from 16-year-old international signing to major leaguer is a long one, if the player makes it to the big leagues at all.

Most of the Latin American prospects who signed on July 2 five years ago are now 21, the same age as the college juniors who will go in the first round in the draft on Thursday. Of the players who signed for the top 20 bonuses in that 2011 class, two are current big leaguers, three others entered the year as Top 100 prospects and handful are still promising prospects with major league futures. The group has its flameouts, including some who never made it out of the rookie leagues, but considering all the risk involved in projecting and signing 16-year-old kids from Latin America, the top of this class overall holds up well five years later.

With the 2016-17 signing period opening in a few weeks on July 2, here’s a look back at the international players who signed for the top 20 bonuses in 2011 and how they have fared so far.

1. Nomar Mazara, of, Rangers ($4,950,000, Dominican Republic)

Mazara signed with the Rangers for $4.95 million along with righthander Pedro Payano ($650,000) and shortstop Crisford Adames ($200,000) from Ivan Noboa’s program on July 2, 2011. Mazara’s deal set a record for an international amateur bonus and remains the highest ever for a 16-year-old, with only 18-year-old Lucius Fox’s $6 million deal with the Giants last year surpassing it among non-Cuban amateur signings.

Other teams didn’t share the Rangers’ lofty opinion of Mazara, who had huge raw power but frightened off other clubs with his swing-and-miss rate. Mike Daly, the Rangers international director at the time and now the team’s farm director, and his international staff now look brilliant, as Mazara has developed into one of the game’s brightest young stars. Despite having just 101 plate appearances of Triple-A experience, Mazara has made a seamless transition to the major leagues, batting .319/.370/.500 in 211 plate appearances.

2. Ronald Guzman, of, Rangers ($3,450,000, Dominican Republic)

Some teams graded out Guzman as the top hitter and top prospect in 2011, when the Rangers signed the outfielder for $3.45 million and quickly moved him to first base. One of the first marquee prospects to come out of the Dominican Prospect League, Guzman had a strong debut in the Rookie-level Arizona League, but his performance since then gradually tapered off along with his stock. Guzman has looked revitalized this season, however, batting .317/.385/.538 in 51 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A.

3. Elier Hernandez, of, Royals ($3,000,000, Dominican Republic)

While some clubs preferred Guzman, others had Hernandez as the No. 1 international prospect in 2011. Hernandez has shown his upside in flashes, but he’s also looked overmatched at times during his minor league progression. He entered the season as the No. 26 prospect in the Royals organization, but he’s off to a rough start batting .192/.258/.293 in 53 games. Hernandez is still a prospect, but the shine has certainly faded.

4. Victor Sanchez, rhp, Mariners ($2,500,000, Venezuela)

At just 20 years old, Sanchez died in March 2015 from injuries he sustained the previous month when a boat struck him in the head while he was swimming in Venezuela. Before tragedy struck, Sanchez had been on the road to becoming a big leaguer, having reached Double-A Jackson in 2014.

5. Raul A. Mondesi, ss, Royals ($2,000,000, Dominican Republic)

The son of former Dodgers outfielder Raul Mondesi signed with the Royals for $2 million on his 16th birthday. While the Royals gave more money to Elier Hernandez, Mondesi quickly surpassed him to become the organization’s top prospect and one of the best young shortstops in the minors.

6. Jose Leal, of, Mariners ($1,925,000, Venezuela)

Leal’s signing at the time was widely viewed as well beyond what was commensurate with his value. He had a good frame and solid athleticism, but his baseball skills were considered extremely crude. That was evident in his pro debut in the Rookie-level Arizona League, where he went 6-for-77 (.078) with 44 strikeouts and no extra-base hits. Leal hasn’t progressed passed Rookie ball and looks like one of the most expensive busts among recent international signings.

7. Mark Malave, c, Cubs ($1,600,000, Venezuela)

Malave represented Venezuela during international youth tournaments and performed well, leading some scouts to project him as a catcher who could hit from both sides of the plate, while others had more reservations about his offensive ability. Two years before, the Cubs hit big on Willson Contreras, another Venezuelan catcher they signed on July 2, but Malave hasn’t worked out as well. Malave reached the short-season Northwest League in 2014, then converted to pitching in 2015.

T-8. Yohander Mendez, lhp, Rangers ($1,500,000, Venezuela)

The Rangers took a chance—and an expensive one—that Mendez would fill out his long, skinny frame (6-foot-4, 170 pounds) and that his stuff would spike along with his weight. That spring, Mendez was throwing 83-86 mph, then reached 85-89 mph as July 2 approached. He had a smooth, fluid delivery with easy arm action and feel for his secondary pitches. It’s been a slow, frustrating progression for Mendez, who has had trouble staying healthy and never pitched more than 50 innings in a season before 2015, but he has become one of the team’s best pitching prospects. These days Mendez sits in the low-90s, popping 94-95 mph and throwing off hitters’ timing with his plus changeup, with three starts under his belt at Double-A Frisco.

T-8. Roberto Osuna, rhp, Blue Jays ($1,500,000, Mexico)

The nephew of former major league righthander Antonio Osuna, Roberto pitched for Mexico in the COPABE 16U Pan American Championship the year before he signed. At that tournament, Osuna touched 94 mph as a 15-year-old and posted a 20-2 K-BB mark in 20 innings. The Blue Jays signed Osuna from the Mexico City Red Devils, with Osuna even pitching 20 innings for Mexico City before joining the Jays. Osuna had Tommy John surgery in 2012 but still zipped to the majors in 2015 as a 20-year-old despite pitching just 22 innings in the high Class A Florida State League, where he had a 6.55 ERA. The two-level jump didn’t hamper Osuna at all, as he immediately became one of the best relievers in the game.

T-10. Wuilmer Becerra, of, Blue Jays ($1,500,000, Venezuela)

Becerra’s career got off to a frightening start in his 11th game in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2012 when he was hit by a pitch that broke his jaw, which had to be wired shut and cost him the rest of the season. That offseason, when the Mets traded R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays, the primary prospects they got back were Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud, along with John Buck, but the Mets also got Becerra thrown into the deal as well. Becerra’s power still needs to show up more to carry him as a corner outfielder, but he entered the season as the organization’s No. 10 prospect and is putting together another strong offensive performance, batting .338/.366/.409 in 41 games in the high Class A Florida State League.

T-10. Dawel Lugo, ss, Blue Jays ($1,500,000, Dominican Republic)

Lugo was one of the better hitters in the DPL when he signed, though he was always an unusual prospect, with a thicker build for a shortstop and a free-swinging approach that worked for him because of his hand-eye coordination. It’s been an uneven climb up the ladder for Lugo, whose lack of patience at the plate has been a problem, yet his ability to find the barrel is still there, as he’s hitting .299/.335/.474 in 53 games for high Class A Visalia in his first full season with the Diamondbacks, who acquired him last August in the Cliff Pennington trade. When Lugo signed, some scouts felt his body would eventually lead him to third base, which is where he has mostly played this season, filling in at shortstop occasionally.

T-12. Luis Acosta, ss, Cubs ($1,100,000, Dominican Republic)

Acosta fell flat immediately upon signing, racking up far too many strikeouts. In three seasons in the Dominican Summer League, Acosta batted .186/.284/.263 with 164 strikeouts in 112 games. The Cubs released him before the 2015 season.

T-12. Dorssys Paulino, ss, Indians ($1,100,000, Dominican Republic)

Paulino initially looked like one of the best signings of the 2011 class. As a 17-year-old in the Rookie-level Arizona League, he batted .355/.404/.610 in 41 games. However, once Paulino got to full-season ball, he hit a wall, spending nearly three full seasons trying to figure it out at low Class A Lake County. He showed some signs of life at the end of the 2015 season, but he’s hitting just .235/.325/.314 in 27 games this year as a left fielder with high Class A Lynchburg.

T-12. Jose Ruiz, c, Padres ($1,100,000, Venezuela)

Several scouts considered Ruiz the best defensive catcher in the class at the time he signed, with the question being how much he would hit in games. Ruiz has been able to stick around, though he has never cracked a Padres Top 30 prospects list because his bat has yet to develop. Ruiz is playing for high Class A Lake Elsinore this season, batting 193/.236/.234 in 41 games.

15. Harold Ramirez, of, Pirates ($1,050,000, Colombia)

From our scouting report on Ramirez before he signed: “Ramirez has wide shoulders but is thick and short-legged, not the long, projectable frame of many young Latin American players. Still, he shows speed, feel for hitting and baseball instincts beyond what many young Colombians typically show.” That has been the case, with Ramirez checking in at 5-foot-10, 220 pounds, but still showing speed (22 steals in 80 games last year) and a knack for finding the barrel, batting .337/.399/.458 in the high Class A Florida State League last year. Ramirez has moved on to Double-A this season, entering the year as the No. 95 prospect in baseball.

16. Raymel Flores, ss, Red Sox ($900,000, Dominican Republic)

When the Red Sox signed Flores out of the Dominican Republic, he earned praise for his glove but drew question marks on his hitting. The bat still hasn’t come around for Flores, who was traded to the Diamondbacks after the 2014 season and is batting .250/.274/.300 in 25 games for low Class A Kane County.

17. Jonathan Perez, rhp, Reds ($825,000, Venezuela)

This one hasn’t worked out for the Reds. Perez pitched in the Rookie-level Arizona League in 2012, when he had 18 walks in 12 2/3 innings with a 14.21 ERA. He hasn’t been back on the mound in a game since then.

T-18. Jose Garcia, c, Mets ($800,000, Venezuela)

Teams are fond of Venezuelan catchers given the track record, but Malave, Ruiz and Garcia haven’t panned out from this class. There has been limited impact in Garcia’s bat, as he’s yet to leave the yard once in 184 games. He’s now with low Class A Columbia, where he’s batting .197/.278/.225 in 22 games.

T-18. Manuel Margot, of, Red Sox ($800,000, Dominican Republic)

Another DPL alumnus, Margot earned praise as an amateur for his athletic frame, speed, defensive instincts and arm strength, with a line-drive bat and occasional power at the plate. He has become one of the premier center field prospects in baseball, shining in the field and showing an excellent combination of bat speed and bat control as a hitter. Traded to the Padres in the offseason in the Craig Kimbrel deal, Margot entered the year as the No. 56 prospect in baseball and is batting .307/.364/.436 in 57 games for Triple-A El Paso.

20. Carlos Tocci, of, Phillies ($759,000, Venezuela)

Tocci was one of the youngest players in the 2011 signing class (he won’t turn 21 until August) and one of the skinniest. His speed and overall baseball instincts stood out, but with his narrow frame, scouts weren’t sure how much stronger he would get. The Phillies have pushed their prospects more aggressively than most, which is why Tocci got to low Class A Lakewood as a 17-year-old in 2013. He spent two and a half years at that level, is in high Class A Clearwater this year, and it’s still not clear which direction he’s going to go, though his lack of strength has thus far been a limiting factor. Tocci, who began the year as the team’s No. 10 prospect, has lost some of his speed, but his defensive reads and routes are sound. He’s hitting just .250/.306/.315 in 52 games.