How The MLB Draft Has Changed In Recent Years

Image credit: Adley Rutschman (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

With a little over seven hours until the MLB draft begins, no one we talk to seems to really know what the Orioles are going to do.

Most everyone we talk to expects Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman to be drafted with the No. 1 pick, but most everyone also expects that the news of him going first overall (or anyone else) won’t be known in advance by other teams.

That’s become the new tradition—using time as a negotiating tactic. It used to be that teams would tell other teams which way they were leaning as a courtesy before the draft. But beginning with the Astros in 2012 and the new slotting system, teams at the top of the draft have generally found its advantageous to wait, hoping that the press of time and the knowledge that there are alternative players to pick will help craft a better deal in the final moments before the selection.

That same approach has filtered through the rest of the first round. It used to be that teams would be calling advisors in the couple of days before the draft to try to sniff out signability. In many cases, unofficial deals would be cut in which teams and players would agree to a number well before the draft had started.

Now, teams are more likely to wait until the draft has already begun. In the moments before their pick, they’ll call a player (or often multiple players) and see if they can settle on a deal with the clock ticking. Teams have found that less time until they pick gives them a better negotiating position, which means that it’s up to advisors in the first round to do more detective work to try to figure out where their players are most likely to land. After all, it may make sense to settle on a below-slot deal if your floor is 10 picks away, while it makes sense to turn it down if you are likely to only fall another spot or two.

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