Astros Top 10 Prospects

After clinging to respectability the last four seasons, the Astros finally bottomed out in 2011.

At 56-106, Houston had its worst season ever and lost 100 games for the first time. It took a total team effort, with the Astros ranking 13th in the National League in scoring (despite playing in a hitter’s park), 16th and last in runs allowed and 15th in both defensive efficiency and fielding percentage.

The club’s disintegration has several obvious causes, such as a decline in Opening Day payroll from $103 million (eighth in MLB) as recently as 2009 to $71 million (20th) in 2011. The franchise is in limbo this offseason as it awaits the finalizing of a sale from Drayton McLane to Jim Crane for $680 million, which also includes a 60 percent share in the Houston Regional Sports Network. MLB continues to look into Crane’s past and is trying to nudge the team into the American League.

The most obvious reason for Houston’s collapse is its failures in scouting and player development. Once a pace-setter in Venezuela, the Astros now hang their Latin program’s hat on Jose Altuve, a 5-foot-7 scrapper who led the minors in batting but made little impact in his big league debut. Altuve was one of four players who went from instructional league in 2010 to the majors in 2011, along with righthander David Carpenter, outfielder J.D. Martinez and third baseman Jimmy Paredes.

Martinez is a rare draft success for Houston, which had a brutal run from 2005-07. Just four players from those three drafts have reached the majors, ranking worst in MLB. Only one player has provided long-term big league value: 2006 sixth-rounder Bud Norris.

Bobby Heck took over as scouting director in 2008 and the organization has made progress, but it has been slow. The organization’s emphasis on athleticism and raw tools still could pay dividends, but Heck’s drafts have produced only four big leaguers so far: Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, Martinez and J.B. Shuck. How much of an impact they’ll make remains to be seen.

With the big league club foundering and the upper levels of the system still thin, Houston traded two of its most marketable commodities in July for five members of its current Top 10. Hunter Pence went to the Phillies for four minor leaguers, including first baseman/left fielder Jonathan Singleton (No. 1), righthander Jared Cosart (No. 2) and outfielder Domingo Santana (No. 6). Righthander Paul Clemens (No. 5) and lefty Brett Oberholtzer (No. 7) arrived in a four-player package from the Braves for Michael Bourn.

The added depth should allow the Astros to slow down the development of young prospects such as shortstop Jonathan Villar, second baseman Delino DeShields Jr. and righthander Mike Foltynewicz Several players could repeat levels after looking overmatched in 2011, when Houston’s affiliates combined for an MLB-worst .409 winning percentage in the minors. Due to their poor drafts and foreign presence, the Astros have finished 30th in organization winning percentage in three of the last four years, and they ranked 29th in 2010.

As one veteran scout put it, “When you have one bad draft, it takes two good ones to make up for it.” So Heck and the Astros are digging out of a deep, deep hole.

TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Jonathan Singleton, 1b/of
2. Jarred Cosart, rhp
3. George Springer, of
4. Jonathan Villar, ss
5. Paul Clemens, rhp
6. Domingo Santana, of
7. Brett Oberholtzer, lhp
8. Delino DeShields Jr., 2b
9. Mike Foltynewicz, rhp
10. Telvin Nash, 1b/of

BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average Jonathan Singleton
Best Power Hitter Jonathan Singleton
Best Strike-Zone Discipline J.B. Shuck
Fastest Baserunner Delino DeShields Jr.
Best Athlete George Springer
Best Fastball Jarred Cosart
Best Curveball Jarred Cosart
Best Slider Brett Oberholtzer
Best Changeup Nick Tropeano
Best Control Jake Buchanan
Best Defensive Catcher Roberto Pena
Best Defensive Infielder Jonathan Villar
Best Infield Arm Jonathan Villar
Best Defensive Outfielder George Springer
Best Outfield Arm George Springer

PROJECTED 2015  LINEUP
Catcher Jason Castro
First Base Jonathan Singleton
Second Base Delino DeShields Jr.
Third Base Jimmy Paredes
Shortstop Jonathan Villar
Left Field J.D. Martinez
Center Field George Springer
Right Field Domingo Santana
No. 1 Starter Bud Norris
No. 2 Starter Jarred Cosart
No. 3 Starter Wandy Rodriguez
No. 4 Starter Jordan Lyles
No. 5 Starter Paul Clemens
Closer Mark Melancon

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE
2002 Carlos Hernandez, lhp Out of baseball
2003 John Buck, c Marlins
2004 Taylor Buchholz, rhp Mets
2005 Chris Burke, 2b Out of baseball
2006 Jason Hirsh, rhp Out of baseball
2007 Hunter Pence, of Phillies
2008 J.R. Towles, c Astros
2009 Jason Castro, c Astros
2010 Jason Castro, c Astros
2011 Jordan Lyles, rhp Astros

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE
2002 Derick Grigsby, rhp Out of baseball
2003 Jason Hirsh, rhp (2nd round) Out of baseball
2004 Hunter Pence, of (2nd round) Phillies
2005 Brian Bogusevic, lhp Astros
2006 Max Sapp, c Out of baseball
2007 *Derek Dietrich, 3b (3rd round) Rays
2008 Jason Castro, c Astros
2009 Jiovanni Mier, ss Astros
2010 Delino DeShields Jr., 2b Astros
2011 George Springer, of Astros
*Did not sign.

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY
Ariel Ovando, 2010 $2,600,000
George Springer, 2011 $2,525,000
Delino DeShields Jr., 2010 $2,150,000
Chris Burke, 2001 $2,125,000
Jason Castro, 2008 $2,070,000