Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects

Want More? Complete Top 10 Prospects Rankings

Get it all: Subscribe to Baseball America

Go 30 deep: Order the 2016 Prospect Handbook!

TOP 10 PROSPECTS
1. A.J. Reed, 1b
2. Francis Martes, rhp
3. Alex Bregman, ss
4. Kyle Tucker, of
5. Daz Cameron, of
6. Joe Musgrove, rhp
7. David Paulino, rhp
8. Colin Moran, 3b
9. Derek Fisher, of
10. Michael Feliz, rhp

If the Astros have their way, the 86-win 2015 season that ended in the American League Division Series will be remembered as a sign that their plan was on schedule. It was a step forward, but only a first step.

After three straight sub-60 win seasons and a basement-dwelling 70-win season in 2014, the Astros came the closest of any playoff team to knocking off the World Series champs. The Astros were six outs and a four-run lead away from eliminating the Royals in Game Four of the ALDS. Kansas City’s seven-run outburst in the final two innings propelled the Royals to their first World Series title in 30 years. In the process it reminded the Astros that the bullpen needed further help.

Better days should be ahead for Houston. Carlos Correa, already one of the best shortstops in the game, won’t turn 22 until the final month of the 2016 season. While Cy Young award winner Dallas Keuchel will have a hard time topping his outstanding 2015 season, a full season of 22-year-old righthander Lance McCullers should give Houston a solid No. 2 starter to follow Keuchel. Houston has a young core of stars and a number of solid regulars to fit around them.
That’s by plan. The Astros’ rebuilding plan has always been focused on numbers.

As one of the game’s most analytical teams, the Astros rely a lot on statistics, but those aren’t the numbers we’re talking about. Under general manager Jeff Luhnow, the Astros have focused on depth. If one prospect is good, five are much better. That depth paid off in multiple ways in 2015. Seven of eight domestic affiliates made the playoffs.

In the draft, Houston has worked to make its classes deeper. In 2012, a below-slot deal with No. 1 pick Correa paid off in above-slot deals to Lance McCullers (a big league starter) and Rio Ruiz (since traded to the Braves for Evan Gattis). The Astros also landed outfielders Brett Phillips (since traded to Milwaukee) and Preston Tucker in that same draft. In 2015, with the largest signing-bonus pool (thanks in part to a compensation pick at No. 2 overall, for having failed to sign 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken), they added Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron, all top 15 talents.

Houston has a promising international development program adding further prospects to a system that already has plenty.

That depth has allowed the Astros to improve the big league roster. Six of the club’s Top 10 Prospects coming into the 2015 season (Mark Appel, Mike Foltynewicz, Vince Velasquez, Phillips, Ruiz and Josh Hader) have been traded, netting Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, Ken Giles, Gattis and the since departed Scott Kazmir in return. Even after that Houston still has one of the best farm systems in the game.

In 2016, 86 wins should rank as a disappointment for Houston. What was a big step forward yesterday will not be enough for a team that should be a power for several years to come.

Last Year’s Astros Top 10 Prospects

1. A.J. Reed, 1b

SCOUTING GRADES
Batting: 60
Power: 65
Speed: 30
Defense: 40
Arm: 60
Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools.

Born: May 10, 1993. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 240. Drafted: Kentucky, 2014 (2nd round). Signed by: Nick Venuto.

TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE
Year	Player, Pos.	2015 Org.
2006	Jason Hirsh, rhp	Did not play
2007	Hunter Pence, of	Giants
2008	J.R. Towles, c	Did not play
2009	Jason Castro, c	Astros
2010	Jason Castro, c	Astros
2011	Jordan Lyles, rhp	Rockies
2012	Jonathan Singleton, rhp	Astros
2013	Carlos Correa, ss	Astros
2014	Carlos Correa, ss	Astros
2015	Carlos Correa, ss	Astros

Background: When Reed arrived at Kentucky as a freshman, he had been drafted by the Mets, who didn’t sign him in part because they couldn’t decide if he was a better prospect as a pitcher or a hitter. Kentucky’s coaching staff saw him as a potential ace who as a bonus would be able to hit as well. Reed lived up to every expectation as a pitcher—he went 19-13, 2.83 in three seasons—but was an even better hitter. He won the BA College Player of the Year award in 2014 after hitting .336/.476/.735 with an NCAA-best 23 home runs. His 23 home runs was more than 185 Division I teams hit that year. He also joined David Price and Dave Magadan as the only unanimous Southeastern Conference player of the year honorees. Reed was Kentucky’s Friday starter and served as the DH all weekend to keep his body fresh. He was a legitimate draft prospect as a pitcher with an 88-92 mph fastball, but he was a much better prospect as a hitter. Reed followed up his excellent 2014 college season by leading the minors in home runs (34), RBIs (127), slugging percentage (.612) and OPS (1.044) in 2015. He dominated the minors despite coming into the season out of shape—he showed up to camp at 285 pounds, at least 25 pounds heavier than he hopes to play at in 2016.

Scouting Report: Reed has outstanding power and pairs it with an excellent batting eye. That selectivity allows him to hit for average and get on base. Reed’s swing has some length and he has long arms that can get tied up. His above-average bat speed combined with his natural strength gives him double-plus raw power. Reed’s selectivity is exceptional. He doesn’t just differentiate between balls and strikes, he also takes strikes he can’t drive. He’s comfortable hitting behind in the count and has an advanced two-strike approach. His ability to spoil pitches explains his surprisingly modest strikeout rate (20 percent) considering his power. He uses the entire field, something that improved even more after he moved up Double-A Corpus Christi–the wind at the Hooks home park’ usually blows directly in from right field, punishing lefthanded hitters for a dead-pull approach. The biggest knock on Reed offensively is he is much more comfortable facing righthanded pitchers. He hit .238/.320/.397 against lefthanders after his promotion to Double-A. Reed is adequate at best defensively at first base. If he shows up in better shape in 2016, it should improve his agility. His hands and arm are fine but he doesn’t have much range or speed.

The Future: Reed’s upside is significant. He has a chance to become one of the rare players who can produce above-average on-base and slugging percentages thanks to selectivity and excellent power. He hasn’t shown he can do the same damage against lefthanders, and he still can be induced to chase a good breaking ball, so the Astros have some incentive to let him head to Triple-A Fresno to begin the 2016 season. But he will get a chance to compete for a big league job in spring training.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Lancaster (Hi A)	.346	.449	.638	318	75	110	16	4	23	81	59	73	0
Corpus Christi (AA)	.332	.405	.571	205	38	68	14	1	11	46	27	49	0

2. Francis Martes, rhp

Born: Nov. 24, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 225. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012. Signed by: Albert Gonzalez/Sandy Nin/Domingo Ortega (Marlins). Video

Background: The Astros make it a point of emphasis to scout the complex leagues. The best payback so far from that approach is Martes, a raw righthander for the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League Marlins when he was acquired in the 2014 Jarred Cosart trade.

Scouting Report: Martes jumped from complex ball to Double-A Corpus Christi because he has two present plus-plus pitches. He can manipulate his 93-95 mph fastball like a vet as he adds and subtracts velocity and generates plenty of life. His fastball sets up a power curveball with depth and excellent spin. The combo of a fastball and hard curve can’t help but remind scouts of Lance McCullers Jr.’s arsenal. His change shows some sink and has average potential because he maintains the arm speed and slot of his fastball, but he uses it infrequently. His control is average already.

The Future: Scouts love how Martes always seems in charge on the mound. He shows no expression whether he’s struck out the last three or given up three straight hits—but he has much more experience with recording three straight strikeouts. Martes will return to Corpus Christi, but he’s not far from the big leagues and he has the potential to be a front-line starter.

2015 Club (Class)	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Quad Cities (Lo A)	3	2	1.04	10	8	1	2	52	33	1	13	45	.181
Lancaster (Hi A)	4	1	2.31	6	5	0	0	35	31	1	8	37	.230
Corpus Christi (AA)	1	0	4.91	3	3	0	0	15	19	2	7	15	.311

3. Alex Bregman, ss

Born: March 30, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 180. Drafted: Louisiana State, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Justin Cryer. Video

TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE
Year	Player, Pos.	2014 Org.
2006	Max Sapp, c	Did not play
2007	*Derek Dietrich, 3b (3rd round)	Marlins
2008	Jason Castro, c	Astros
2009	Jio Mier, ss	Astros
2010	Delino DeShields Jr., 2b	Rangers
2011	George Springer, of	Astros
2012	Carlos Correa, ss	Astros
2013	Mark Appel, rhp	Astros
2014	*Brady Aiken, lhp	Indians
2015	Alex Bregman, ss	Astros
*Did Not Sign

Background: Bregman has been one of the best players everywhere he’s ever played. A USA Baseball veteran since early in his high school days, he was the BA Freshman of the Year in 2013, a two-time first-team All-American for Louisiana State and, ultimately, the second overall pick in the 2015 draft.

Scouting Report: Blessed with excellent hand-eye coordination and a simple, level swing, Bregman has plenty of bat speed and is equally comfortable yanking the ball down the left-field line or staying back and stinging a ball to the right-field wall. He should be at least a plus hitter who racks up walks as well. His range is average at best and his arm is only average as well, but he anticipates exceptionally well and plays with a smooth unruffled grace. Nothing surprises him and the ball never seems to eat him up. He’s an above-average runner who runs the bases well. Bregman has the power to hit 10-15 home runs a year, but he’s at his best when he’s spraying line drives.

The Future: Bregman is one of the safer college picks in recent years with a long track record of success and a Carlos Correa-like drive to succeed, but without Correa’s physical gifts. At worst, Bregman should be an everyday second baseman who hits for average with occasional power. He’s on the fast track and should spend much of 2016 at Double-A Corpus Christi.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Quad Cities (Lo A)	.259	.368	.330	112	18	29	5	0	1	13	17	13	5
Lancaster (Hi A)	.319	.364	.475	160	19	51	8	4	3	21	12	17	8

4. Kyle Tucker, of

Born: Jan. 17, 1997. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 190. Drafted: HS—Tampa, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: John Martin. Video

Background: Kyle’s older brother Preston made his big league debut in May 2015, a month before Kyle joined him in the Astros organization. Kyle has his brother’s power potential, but he brings with it more bat speed, a better body and more athleticism. Tucker broke his brother’s Plant City High career home run record and was the BA High School Player of the Year in 2015.

Scouting Report: Tucker is athletic and somewhat slender, but he is expected to fill out into a profile corner outfielder’s frame. He generates 60 hit and 60 power grades from scouts who are sold on his bat. Tucker’s swing starts with low hands and an arm bar, but his swing gets more fluid as he brings the bat head through the zone and the bat stays in the zone a long time. He has excellent bat speed and has present pull power, although opposite-field power will have to wait until he adds strength. Tucker is an average runner who runs the bases well. He played a little center field in 2015, but long-term, he’s a corner outfielder who has a chance to be above-average defensively. His average arm means he’ll slide to left on a team with a true right fielder.

The Future: Tucker’s unconventional swing causes slight concern, but he has a chance to be a middle-of-the-order hitter. He’s ready for low Class A Quad Cities.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
GCL Astros (R)	.208	.267	.317	120	19	25	3	2	2	13	9	14	4
Greenville (R)	.286	.322	.393	112	11	32	9	0	1	20	7	2	14

5. Daz Cameron, of

Born: Jan. 15, 1997. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 185. Drafted: HS—McDonough, Ga., 2015 (1st round supp). Signed by: Gavin Dickey. Video

LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY
Mark Appel, 2013		$6,350,000
Alex Bregman, 2015		$5,900,000
Carlos Correa, 2012		$4,800,000
Kyle Tucker, 2015		$4,000,000
Daz Cameron, 2015		$4,000,000

Background: Cameron was born into a big league lifestyle. The year he was born his father Mike became a big league regular. For the next 15 years the elder Cameron stood out as an exceptional defensive center fielder with plenty of power. Just as Mike’s career ended, Daz stepped on to the scene, impressing at the 2012 World Wood Bat Championship. The Astros signed Cameron for the same $4 million they gave to Kyle Tucker, the No. 5 pick.

Scouting Report: Cameron isn’t the top-of-the-scale defender his father was in center, but he’s a plus defender with good routes, anticipation and above-average speed once underway. He has plus bat speed and solid bat-to-ball skills, but he doesn’t have as much explosiveness in his bat or athletically as scouts once hoped. He projects more as a fringe-average hitter with average power. His speed plays better underway than out of the box but he has demonstrated solid basestealing ability. Cameron’s feel for the game and his body control is more notable than any one loud tool.

The Future: Cameron has a slightly lower ceiling than Kyle Tucker because of his lesser power potential but he has a higher floor because of his ability to roam center field. He’ll join Tucker in low Class A Quad Cities in a loaded lineup.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
GCL Astros (R)	.222	.326	.250	72	14	16	2	0	0	6	9	18	13
Greeneville (R)	.272	.372	.350	103	20	28	2	3	0	11	16	31	11

6. Joe Musgrove, rhp

Born: Dec. 4, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 255. Drafted: HS—El Cajon, Calif., 2011 (1st round supp). Signed by: Andrew Tinnish (Blue Jays).

Background: Musgrove was part of the 10-player Blue Jays-Astros trade that sent J.A. Happ to Toronto. It took Musgrove a long time to blossom. A sprained rotator cuff cost him almost all of the 2012 season, and he missed time in 2013 with a sprained UCL elbow ligament.

Scouting Report: Finally healthy, Musgrove dominated three levels. He has plus command/control already—at one point he had a 66-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He owns the inner half of the plate with boring life on his 90-93 mph fastball that reaches 95 whenever he needs it. Musgrove’s fastball is a plus pitch thanks to its movement and his command. His 80-85 mph slider is an average offering but it also plays up because he can spot it so well—he’ll backdoor it, make it a chase pitch and generally make hitters defend both sides of the plate at all times. His 80-85 mph changeup is an average offering as well.

The Future: Musgrove has a strong body and clean delivery, and his injury issues are now several years in the past. He was shut down in August just to limit his innings. He could eventually be a No. 3 starter and he could reach Houston in 2016.

2015 Club (Class)	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Quad Cities (Lo A)	4	1	0.70	5	3	0	0	26	22	0	1	23	.232
Lancaster (Hi A)	4	0	2.40	6	4	0	0	30	28	2	1	43	.243
Corpus Christi (AA)	4	0	2.20	8	7	0	1	45	35	7	6	33	.210

7. David Paulino, rhp

Born: Feb. 6, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-7. Wt.: 215. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010. Signed by: Carlos Santana/Ramon Perez/Miguel Garcia (Tigers).

BEST TOOLS
Best Hitter For Average	A.J. Reed
Best Power Hitter	A.J. Reed
Best Strike-Zone Discipline	Nolan Fontana
Fastest Baserunner	Myles Straw
Best Athlete	Daz Cameron
Best Fastball	Francis Martes
Best Curveball	Francis Martes
Best Slider	Riley Ferrell
Best Changeup	Chris Devenski
Best Command	Joe Musgrove
Best Defensive Catcher	Alfredo Gonzalez
Best Defensive Infielder	Alex Bregman
Best Infield Arm	J.D. Davis
Best Defensive Outfielder	Daz Cameron
Best Outfield Arm	Teoscar Hernandez

Background: Paulino was a Rookie-level acquisition when the Astros acquired him as the player to be named in the 2013 Jose Veras-Danry Vasquez trade. Paulino battled elbow problems as a Tiger and he missed all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery, but he returned to show two plus-plus offerings.

Scouting Report: He generates swings and misses with a 91-95 mph fastball and can sporadically reach back for 97-98. His fastball has angle as he works down in the zone consistently, occasionally elevating with a four-seamer up. Both his fastball and his high-70s, 11-to-5 curveball have excellent spin. He’ll still bounce his curveball too much but when he gets it right it freezes hitters. Scouts who have seen him well grade both as at least 60s and both generate some plus-plus grades. His average changeup has sporadic sink and he maintains his arm speed, but he seems hesitant to throw it. Paulino repeats his delivery well.

The Future: The biggest knock on Paulino is his lack of innings—he’s a 21-year-old who’s thrown 106 innings in five pro seasons. Paulino’s elbow has been fine post-surgery but he needs to show he can handle a heavier workload. If he can he has No. 2 starter potential.

2015 Club (Class)	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Tri-City (SS)	1	0	0.00	2	2	0	0	9	4	0	2	10	.125
Quad Cities (Lo A)	3	2	1.57	5	5	0	0	29	21	0	7	32	.202
Lancaster (Hi A)	1	1	4.91	6	5	0	1	29	24	1	10	30	.220

8. Colin Moran, 3b

Born: Oct. 1, 1992. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 214. Drafted: North Carolina, 2013 (1st round). Signed by: Joel Matthews (Marlins). Video

Background: The sixth pick in the 2013 draft, Moran’s lack of productive power and low-energy approach quickly turned off the Marlins, who traded him the next season in a deal that sent Jarred Cosart to Miami and netted Francis Martes as well for the Astros. Moran missed a month this year with a broken jaw thanks to an errant throw, but he showed no ill effects upon his return.

Scouting Report: Moran can really hit. He starts from a very open stance but squares up with his timing step. He will occasionally connect on a long home run, but his approach is geared to stay back, avoid getting fooled and use the whole field with a small load to his swing. He draws walks as well. But what makes Moran such a divisive prospect for scouts is what he can’t do. He’s a near bottom-of-the-scale runner and a below-average defender at third base because of a lack of first-step quickness and limited athleticism. His plus arm is very accurate, which is key because without the arm, he’d already be playing first base.

The Future: If Moran stays at third base, his potential to hit .290 with above-average on-base percentages, and the 25-30 doubles may make the 10-15 home runs he’ll hit seem adequate. But if a team is unwilling to live with below-average defense at third, he becomes a much less interesting first baseman. He’s ready for Triple-A and isn’t far away.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Corpus Christi (AA)	.306	.381	.459	366	47	112	25	2	9	67	43	79	1

9. Derek Fisher, of

Born: Aug. 21, 1993. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Virginia, 2014 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Tim Bittner.

PROJECTED 2019 LINEUP
Catcher	Jason Castro
First Base	A.J. Reed
Second Base	Jose Altuve
Shortstop	Carlos Correa
Third Base	Alex Bregman
Left Field	Daz Cameron
Center Field	Carlos Gomez
Right Field	George Springer
Designated Hitter	Kyle Tucker
No. 1 starter	Dallas Keuchel
No. 2 Starter	Lance McCullers Jr.
No. 3 Starter	Francis Martes
No. 4 Starter	Joe Musgrove
No. 5 Starter	David Paulino
Closer	Ken Giles

Background: Dating back to his prep days in Pennsylvania, when he was an unsigned sixth-rounder by the Rangers, Fisher has teased scouts with his body and lively tools. He’s an excellent athlete and runner, but he played left field at Virginia. He shows a sweet swing at times, but he never hit .300 as a Cavalier, and a hamate injury as a junior caused him to fall into the supplemental first round.

Scouting Report: If Fisher could play center field, he would be a nearly perfect profile prospect. But he’s never shown any aptitude for the position. He’s a plus runner, has a great, athletic frame and will show plus-plus raw power in batting practice. Fisher’s power doesn’t show up in games as often as one would expect. His swing generates raves from some scouts with his bat speed, fluidity and a good all-field approach. At times he’s demonstrated a tenacious two-strike approach, but his pitch recognition needs work. Fisher has always struggled with reads and routes. He looks more comfortable in left where his below-average arm plays better.

The Future: Fisher runs the bases well and has 20-20 potential. But he’s still a very high variance prospect who has a chance to be a star along the lines of Jason Bay, and a chance to struggle to have a big league career. He’ll take on Double-A in 2016.

2015 Club (Class)	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Quad Cities (Lo A)	.305	.386	.510	151	32	46	11	1	6	24	19	37	8
Lancaster (Hi A)	.262	.354	.471	344	74	90	10	7	16	63	47	95	23

10. Michael Feliz, rhp

Born: June 28, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 226. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2010. Signed by: Felix Francisco/Rafael Belen/Jose Lima.

Background: Houston signed nine Latino amateurs to six-figure bonuses or larger in 2010. Most have never panned out, but Feliz, who only signed with Houston for $400,000 after his contract with the Athletics was voided for a positive steroid test, has made up for the rest of the misses. He made the 2014 Futures Game, was added to the 40-man roster after the season and made it to the majors.

Scouting Report: Feliz’s combination of exceptional fastball velocity, less-impressive secondary offerings and fringe-average control have long led some scouts to believe his longterm future lies in the bullpen. Feliz can touch 98-99 mph out of the bullpen and he sits 93-94 with his plus fastball as a starter. If he’s going to start, Feliz needs to improve the consistency of his slider and changeup. Both flash average or better, though not nearly consistently enough. He rips off a good slider roughly two out of every five times he throws it, the changeup a little less than that, and too many of the poor ones catch the plate.

The Future: The Astros’ starting pitching depth may push Feliz to the bullpen, but there’s no reason to move him there yet. Feliz has made strides, but he’s far from a finished product.

2015 Club (Class)	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Lancaster (Lo A)	1	1	4.11	8	5	0	0	33	30	2	12	33	.246
Corpus Christi (AA)	6	3	2.17	15	12	0	1	79	52	5	20	70	.185
Houston (MLB)	0	0	7.88	5	0	0	0	8	9	2	4	7	.273