Hot Sheet Chat (6/14/22)

Image credit: Marcelo Mayer (Photo by Tom DiPace)

Josh Norris answered questions regarding this week’s Hot Sheet from 2-3 p.m. ET today. You can read the transcript below.

Josh Norris: It is flag day, so let us celebrate with a chat.

Zak (Boston):

 If there was a Cold Sheet , I’d imagine Kahlil Watson would be a regular there. What have you guys heard from scouts and are there a lot of concerns about his future?

Josh Norris: Kahlil Watson’s got the tools to be an electric player befitting his draft position, but he really needs to cut down on the strikeouts. I know this isn’t exactly re-inventing the wheel here, but it’s really that simple. If he can put together a better approach, particularly with two strikes, he’ll be better equipped to regularly tap into his talents.

Bill B (Glen Allen, va):

 No Alex Kiriloff? Has he exhausted prospect eligibility? What a last few weeks he has had!

Josh Norris: He indeed has long exhausted prospect eligibility, thus I did not include him.

Josh Norris: BRB, I am receiving a phone call.

Chauncey (Centennial):

 How much has Mason Winns stock gone up this year compared to last year?

Josh Norris: Quite a bit, in fact, as a 20-year-old more than holding his own in the Texas League. Scouts who have seen him project a surefire shortstop with offensive upside (if not a whole of power) as well. He’s come a long way in a year.

Ken (Lakewood CA):

 Thanks for the chat time. Dustin Harris made the Hot Sheet. But prior to getting hot, he was limping along with a .249 average for the season. How concerned should we be about his results so far in AA. He had such a great year in A ball last year. Too soon to worry? Thanks.

Josh Norris: As I mentioned in the capsule, part of his struggles early in the year had something to do with the pitch clock. He was one of the more deliberate hitters between pitches, and the enforcement of the clock forced him to alter his routine into something that wouldn’t result in automatic strikes against him. Now that he’s more comfortable (and the weather is getting hot!) we’re starting to see more of the player we saw last year (granted, this week was played in Amarillo, the Coors Field of the Texas League).

Nate Callaghan (Virginia):

 What is going on with Luis Matos? It seemed that he was on a lot of “riser” lists this spring but the results so far have been underwhelming.

Josh Norris: Last year, one of the biggest knocks on him was that he was a very aggressive, free-swinging type of player. This year, he may have swung too far in the other direction and become too passive at the plate, which has led to him taking hittable pitches. Also, he missed a ton of time with a strained quad and has just 92 at-bats on the season anyway.

Brad (NJ):

 Josh, Thoughts on Ken Waldichuk, Pre-season thoughts were he might be a RP, but he is dominating all year, including AAA and a few Yankees SP have innings concerns, Sevy, Taillon, Cortes. Could Waldichuk get a call this year? What do you think of his long term potential now? He HAS to be in the top 100 by now..

Josh Norris: Scouts who have seen him recently still aren’t super bullish on his potential, despite the numbers. They see a pitcher who scatters the ball throughout the zone and is getting away with mistakes more skilled hitters might not miss. They also see someone who struggles to repeat his delivery. He’ll be a big leaguer, for sure, but probably not nearly the caliber that his numbers might lead you to believe.

Andy (Ohio):

 How soon could we see Elly De La Cruz in AA and has his major league ETA changed at all?

Josh Norris: Man, I hope it’s soon! I would love to make the drive down to Chattanooga to watch him try to pelt the train beyond the outfield wall. I don’t think his ETA has really changed. Should be up sometime next year, maybe toward the end. Still a fair amount of swing and miss to his game, and his transitions to the upper levels could be rocky as a result. The upside continues to be Robert Wadlow-esque, though.

Drew (Chicago):

 Where do you think Chourio will be on the 2023 preseason Top 100?

Josh Norris: Without knowing who will have graduated by season’s end, I still feel comfortable saying he will likely be very, very high on that list. Certainly extremely high on my ballot.

Nate Callaghan (Virginia):

 Love your coverage on here as well as Twitter. What caused the significant drop in Noelvi Marte’s rank in the most recent top 100? Was the previous ranking too bullish based on his profile and completion level in your opinion?

Josh Norris: First of all, thank you for saying you love my Twitter. The melange of birds, puns and other malarkey is not for everyone. The check, meager though it may be, is in the mail. As to Noelvi, his body has not gone the way the Mariners would have hoped, and evaluators both inside and outside the organization now see a player who looks more solid than spectacular and wonder if he still fits at shortstop.

Scott (FL):

 Are the walk numbers for DL Hall becoming increasingly concerning for his long term starter potential?

Josh Norris: Control/command has always been a concern for Hall, a personal favorite of mine for his electric stuff. That said, if you can’t throw it in the zone (or in the good parts of the zone) consistently, you’re going to have a bad time. If he can’t make the adjustments, he at least could fit as a dominant reliever.

Andrew (Naperville, IL):

 Higher ceiling: Kevin Alcantara or Cristian Hernandez? And does the former make a big jump into the next BA 100? Thanks.

Josh Norris: Man, can I cop out and say tie? The Yankees always thought Alcantara’s ceiling was really high, though there were plenty of questions about whether he’d reach it in the long run. In the PHB and subsequent updates, we have them separated by a half-grade in overall ceiling. With his early performance, Alcantara may have closed that gap.

Shawn (Wisconsin):

 It doesn’t feel right to not have Jackson Chourio on the hot sheet. Since you’ve been one of the most vocal supporters, what’s something that hasn’t been said about him so far that would blow our minds?

Josh Norris: I know, man. It hurt my soul not to put him on there almost as much as it hurt me to not be at Five County Stadium this week to watch him (darn you, failing transmission) play against a Myrtle Beach team with Kevin Alcantara, James Triantos and friends. I don’t know what I could say that would blow your minds about him. Personally, I love that he’s already made adjustments to fix small issues with his swing mechanics. To me, that shows a player who, despite the early success he’s had, is willing to attack areas for improvement in order to become even better. Also, scouts I’ve watched him with note how dedicated he is. One, after walking back from the parking lot post BP to retrieve something from his car came back and noted that Chourio was in the outdoor cages doing even more work. Another, after Chourio finished a series kind of a mis-hit double, said aloud: It almost looks like he’s mad he didn’t hit one out to put on a show for the fans. I know I talk a lot about Chourio on here, and on Twitter, and to passersby on the street and birds and squirrels in my yard. I know it seems like I’m putting a lot of English on the ball, but I want to be very clear: Jackson Chourio is exactly the kind of player who makes this job so rewarding. There is no replacement for the feeling you get when you see a player you think could right at the beginning of the superstar track, and that’s the feeling I got when watching Chourio’s first few games here in North Carolina. There’s a long way to go, but he has a chance to be incredibly special.

Brad (NJ):

 Josh, Can you give us an update on Volpe? He was the hottest spect last year and the Yankees future SS/2B, but this year has just been ok and you dont hear anything about him. He seems to have gone from typical hyped “untouchable” young yankees future HOF’er to fizzled out just another name in the long list of failed Yankees spects…..

Josh Norris: I know it’s not showing up in the numbers yet, but he’s started to hit a little bit more now over the past two weeks or so. I know most were expecting a major fall when we updated the Top 100 rankings a little while ago, but when we sent out what we had at the time, the executives surveyed told us to hold steady on him and we would eventually be rewarded for our patience. Maybe this little sample (.302/.362/.488 in June) is a blip too, but it’s encouraging and indicative of the player we saw last year. When putting together the re-ordered lists for the various Top 30s, I purposely avoided doing too much to high-end hitting prospects. Why? Because most of the sample at that point was in April and early May (the first time the sport had played in April since 2019, btw) and it was freaking cold in most spots around the country. The Eastern League is no exception, so I didn’t want to crush Volpe or others in that type of climate only to have the weather warm up and the players’ bats thaw out as well. Please also note that Volpe is 21 years old, opened the season as the fifth-youngest player in the Eastern League (but only the fourth-youngest shortstop!) and Double-A is a pretty tough test for any player. Long way of saying that I’m still pretty dang confident that Volpe has a bright future.

Alex (Nashville):

 Ceddanne Rafaela seems to be a different player this year. What’s his new ceiling and where does he rank among Red Sox prospects now? Could you see him cracking top 100 overall if he keeps this up all season? Does he profile more as a regular or still utility guy?

Josh Norris: Though he ranks at No. 22 on the most recent update to the Red Sox 30, I’d say he’s likely going to take a big leap forward the next time we update these things (at the end of the month). I definitely could see him in The T100 at some point if he continues his breakout season at Double-A.

Scott (Long Island):

 Is there a case to be made that Waldichuk is NYY’s best SP prospect? I’ve heard he has a “perfect” fastball and his sweeper is giving hitters fits – no problems with AAA so far. What’s his outlook look like?

Josh Norris: I think he’s among their best pitching prospects at this point, but scouts I trust who see that group regularly have Wesneski solidly above Waldichuk. That said, I do believe he’s their best LH pitching prospect since Jordan Montgomery (Nestor Cortes’ star turn aside) and he should make his big league debut at some point this season, whether it’s with NYY or another organization after a deadline flip.

Jeff (Idaho):

 Thanks for the chat! Thoughts on Gunnar Henderson? He’s had a great season, seems to control the strike zone well, hit for power and solid average with some speed mixed in. All at a young age (not even 22 yet in AAA). Is he viewed as a potential star? Solid regular? Will he break into the bigs as a SS or more likely to shift over to 3B? How’s that for a thousand questions in one question.

Josh Norris: Man, oh man, does he sound excellent. He’s currently No. 35 on our T100 and I would expect him to keep moving upward in the near future, and not just to accommodate the various graduations. Given Grayson Rodriguez’s injury and Rutschman’s likely graduation here in the coming weeks, Henderson has an intriguing case as the organization’s top prospect. Or, as Tom Cruise might put it: The Top Gunnar. (Sorry.)

Josh Norris: Thanks for the questions, y’all, it’s time to go back into the editing bay for the issue. Happy flag day!