Hot Sheet Chat (6/27/23)

Image credit: Emmanuel Rodriguez (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, hope you’re having a good week so far. Let’s chat.

Miggy (Chicago): Appears that Druw Jones is out again for an extended period of time, we getting close to a lost season yet?

Kyle Glaser: It’s trending that way, unfortunately. Let’s see how he recovers and if he can get back in time to play a month-plus of games uninterrupted.

Brian (Denver): The Met’s Mike Vasil was selected to the futures game and has good robo scout metrics. Other than that, there hasn’t been much fan fair. Can you tell us more and where does he fit with the Met’s future rotation? Thank you.

Kyle Glaser: Matt Eddy had an update on some of the changes and improvements Vasil has made in the Mets Top 30 update, as well as where he now fits in the Mets future plans. I encourage you to check out. https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1013/new-york-mets/organizational/

Matt (Used to be stuck in Ohio escaped to NC): Sterlin Thompson. Is he hurt right now? Also he’s batting .400 and projectable. Early success is still success..could he be all star level bat or are there too many question marks?

Kyle Glaser: Thompson left in the middle of the game on June 21 and hasn’t played since, but we don’t have any additional info at this time. As far as his ability, Thompson can really, really hit. It wouldn’t shock me if he hits his way to an All-Star appearance or two. He’s good.

Kyle Glaser: Sorry for the delay everyone. Had to jump on a call. Let’s get back to it.

Ken (Lakewood CA): Thanks for the chat Kyle. My question is about the glut of OF talent for the Diamondbacks. In AAA there’s Barrosa, Canzone & Fletcher. Fletcher was up to the majors earlier and hit .300 but was dropped back to AAA. Are any of their AAA OF’s more than #4 type guys? They all seem to lack power. Is that their biggest drawback? Right now it seems they’re happy with Gurriel, Thomas & McCarthy. Do they end up trading some of their AAA OF talent? Better question – should they? I was thinking Fletcher was the real deal.

Kyle Glaser: The D-backs are more than fine with Carroll and Gurriel in center and left, respectively. They could certainly use an upgrade in right field, particularly a righthanded power-hitting outfielder to complement their contact-oriented lefthanded bats (Thomas, McCarthy, Fletcher, etc.) I expect to see the D-backs trade some of their outfield depth at the deadline, and yes, that would be the right move for them.

Brad (Cincy): With the Reds rotation largely a weakness at this point, what is the likelihood Connor Phillips makes it to the majors this year? I see he was just promoted to AAA. How long would he need to be there in your eyes?

Kyle Glaser: As long as it takes him to improve his control. Phillips has good stuff but his control is very inconsistent, and we saw his walk rate spike once he got to Double-A (the Southern League ball doesn’t help, but it was poor even in that context). Bringing him to the majors before he can throw strikes consistently wouldn’t do anyone any good. He needs to show he can do that against upper-level hitters before he’ll be ready for the call as a starter.

Jack (PA): Mick Abel has had a very uneven season but is still getting accolades (Futures game), maintaining top 50 spot on the top 100. Is this just growing pains or should we start to wonder if he’s just not going to have the command needed to reach his ceiling?

Kyle Glaser: Both things can be true at the same time. He’s still only 21 at Double-A and comes from the Pacific Northwest, where you need to be a little more patient with guys’ development. He’s young and talented and far from a finished product. At the same time, I think it’s fair to say his control will hold him back from being a front-of-the-rotation starter, which was seen as a possibility when he was drafted.

Jon (PA): Should we read anything into Endy Rodriguez not being listed as a catcher?

Kyle Glaser: No.

Ziggy (Tahoe): Ivan Melendez is on fire. 23 seems a little old for A+ though. what are your thoughts on his progress, his path to the majors and his potential.

Kyle Glaser: Melendez battled some mechanical issues early (hands were too steep in his load and he was getting under a lot of balls) but he’s worked through it and really clicked. He’s a legit power hitter who has a chance to be an everyday first baseman. He’s actually been better than expected defensively at third base this year, which has been interesting.

Emmanuel Rodriguez (Toronto): I had considerable hype over the winter as a possible top 10 prospect – have I re-established that evaluation with my recent dominance? If I keep this up, where would I hypothetically rank in next year’s top 100?

Kyle Glaser: No one credibly saw Emmanuel Rodriguez as a Top-10 type prospect. He had power and patience, but he was limited to a corner and had body concerns long-term. Most front office officials thought it was aggressive having him in the Top 50. He was never in consideration for anything close to Top 10. In terms of what he’s done this month, it’s been good to see, but nothing has materially changed in his long-term outlook with the stretch – he’s just shown he has a chance to be the prospect we thought he was coming into the season. He’ll stay around where he was, 50ish or so.

John (NJ): Ceiling for Chase Hampton? How is the fastball shape?

Kyle Glaser: Hampton is a good prospect. Most see his absolute ceiling as a No. 3 starter with a No. 4 as his most likely outcome. He’s a good pitcher.

Jayce (ABQ): Last week you mentioned you’re the low man among colleagues on Luciano. Where are you on Lawlar? Worth noting, perhaps, that per wRC+ (which isn’t park-adjusted in the minors), Luciano has outperformed Lawlar this season at the same level despite playing in a much more difficult hitting environment (Richmond – 6th toughest in the minors per Matt Eddy, while Amarillo is 4th easiest), albeit with a slightly higher K rate. Is it time to acknowledge the gap may be closing?

Kyle Glaser: Lawlar got off to a poor start where he got out of his approach and lost his swing direction. He’s gotten it back and has been on fire this month for Amarillo. Luciano has been getting better too, but Lawlar is still the better pure hitter and better pure athlete with better tools (speed and defense, especially). There is a pretty significant gap between them and the caliber of players they project to be, as indicated by where they lie on the Top 100.

Nuxie (Hamilton): Marco Vargas -a long term keeper or just an organizational type?

Kyle Glaser: Vargas has been off to a bad start, no way around it. The natural hitting ability he’s shown at every level doesn’t just disappear overnight. A lot of guys struggle their first year in the majors (see: Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, and many, many others). I wouldn’t panic, he’ll be fine long-term.

Tatum (Clearwater): Kyle, what is your take on Jasson Dominguez performance in AA this year? High K rate and low contact rate suggests he is taking time to adjust. Any concerns about his adjusting? Only 60 games at AA at this point. thanks

Kyle Glaser: It hasn’t been great. I will say one thing evaluators have noted is Dominguez seems to be hitting into a lot of bad luck this year. He’s made some really hard contact just right at guys. His pitch recognition and strike-zone discipline have actually been ok in scouts’ looks. There’s still a sense he’ll be ok even though the numbers are concerning right now.

Ben (Columbus, Ohio): What are your thoughts on Blaze Jordan? He seems to have really improved his hit tool and still has massive power. Could he push the top 100 by season’s end or is defensive profile too limiting?

Kyle Glaser: Jordan deserves credit. He keeps hitting at every level. There are still some concerns about his overall athleticism and the general sense is he projects to be a second-division first baseman, which doesn’t quite clear the bar for a Top 100 Prospect. That said, he’s young, he’s hitting for average and power and keeps getting better. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Bill B (Glen Allen, VA): Which organization has the most compelling list of prospects that could be traded for Otani? That both teams would actually execute on! Thanks

Kyle Glaser: The Dodgers and Orioles, but it wouldn’t be just prospects – you’d have to trade at least 1-2 young, controllable big leaguers with All-Star potential on top of a boatload of prospects. Also, the Angels are only 1/2 game back of a playoff spot. As long as they stay close, Ohtani isn’t going to be traded.

Quincy (Ames): What’s your take on a couple padre pitchers- iriarte and snelling?

Kyle Glaser: Both are very, very good. Snelling has a chance to be a mid-rotation (or better) lefthanded starter. Iriarte’s fastball should make him an impact reliever at least, and he keeps improving his control enough to potentially be a starter.

Satchel (Las Vegas): Coby Mayo raking right now in AA. When does he get the call to AAA and with all the Baltimore talent, where does he fit in the lineup? Part 2, who has a higher ceiling Mayo or Colt Keith? thanks Kyle

Kyle Glaser: The higher-ranked player is who projects to be the better major leaguer. It’s pretty straightforward. As for when Mayo gets promoted to Triple-A, that’s going to depend on factors outside of just him. With all the infield talent the Orioles have at higher levels, I think Mayo is a prime trade candidate for them to go add another starter or two.

Charles (Watching Baseball): Is what Yu-Min Lin doing sustainable as he moves up the ladder? It feels like getting by with a sub-90s fastball isn’t going to work as you move to a higher level and face better hitters. Yeah he throws the changeup a lot, and the breakers are good, but enough to make up for the poor FB velo?

Kyle Glaser: If Lin stays exactly the same as he is now, no, it’s not sustainable. But if he continues to grow and get stronger and is able to start sitting 92-94 (which he flashes now) and sustains it, then he’ll be in good shape. It’s just going to depend on how much more he’s able to fill out and get stronger.

Benjamin (Dayton, OH): Excited to see Colt Keith’s recent promotion to AAA. Given his defensive limitations, do you believe he will stick at 3B and what might his ETA be to join a struggling Tigers squad?

Kyle Glaser: The general expectation is Keith will end up at first base long-term. We’ll see what happens and how he develops defensively. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets some ABs for the Tigers by the end of this year.

Travis (Seattle Wa): What’s your thoughts on Gabby Gonzalez and what’s his upside? He seems to advanced for Low A ball and a promotion to Everett seems like it should be imminent.

Kyle Glaser: Gonzalez knows the strike zone, has a feel for contact and has real bat speed and strength that should help him unlock more power as he develops. That said, he’s still overly aggressive in his approach and his body is a concern – it’s a very thick, bowling ball frame that keeps getting larger every year. He’s really going to have to maintain his fitness, which is a concern even within the Mariners organization. In terms of the short-term future, yes, he should be promoted to Everett sooner rather than later.

Mike R (Lockport, NY): Can Mason Black break into the Giants rotation late this year or next, does he have a shot ?

Kyle Glaser: Yes, Black has a shot to break into the Giants rotation at some point over the next year. Probably more next year, but you never know when injuries are going to hit and if the need will arise sooner.

Ray (Shippensburg. PA): The Orioles arguably have the best position players in the minors. Take away DL Hall, Grod, and Cade Povich, name 2-3 pitchers in their syastem with the most upside

Kyle Glaser: Seth Johnson (who is recovering from TJ) and Chayce McDermott have good stuff, but I would not say they have huge upside. The Orioles really don’t have many pitching prospects who do – which is why it’s in their best interest, short-term and long-term, to use some of their position player prospect depth to trade for impact starters this deadline.

Jeff (Idaho): Which prospects outside of the top 20 are you most excited about?

Kyle Glaser: I think Robby Snelling is going to be a very good pitcher as long as he stays healthy. Cade Horton is showing some exciting stuff and has rapidly improved his curveball and changeup to go with his fastball and slider. He has a chance to be a good one as long as he stays healthy, too.

Danny (Brooklyn): There seems to be a disconnect between what the Yankees are saying and doing with Austin Wells. They’ve outwardly been bullish on his ability to stay at catcher and have not tried him at any different positions (other than DH). But he’s had a lot of experience at AA and seems ready offensively to move up (I’m scouting the statline to be sure). They kind of have to make a decision on him because he’s Rule 5 this offseason and I don’t think they are fooling other teams he could actually catch. What’s going on?

Kyle Glaser: It’s not unusual for teams to leave guys at a premium position (C, SS, etc.) for as long as possible even though it’s clear they won’t play there. Same with keeping guys as starters who clearly are going to end up in the bullpen. Sometimes it’s about building trade value, other times it’s just hoping some sort of breakthrough happens. Wells isn’t going to catch, at least not everyday, but I also get seeing if he can get better with reps and maybe increase the odds even just a little bit.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone. That will do it for today. Thanks for coming out. Have a good rest of your week.