Hot Sheet Chat (5/9/23)

Josh Norris hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript below.

Josh Norris: Hello, chatters. I will be with you in just a minute. Finishing up a call.

Jim (Berlin, NJ):

 Samuel Zavala will play most of this season at age 18. Seems to be holding his own at Low A with batting eye and OBP, and displaying a little pop. Is he a candidate for in-season promotion – given SD has traded so much top-tier OF talent recently – or is he a longer-term stock? What do scouts think of his start to the season?

Josh Norris: I guess the way to look at this is: If he performs well, he’ll get promoted, no? There’s no real reason to rush him given his age. I wish this chat were tomorrow, because I have a call scheduled tonight to talk about him (among many others)!

Zach (Baltimore):

 Any insight into Henderson’s struggles so far?

Josh Norris: Part of the reason is simply because the big leagues are very different from the minor leagues. I don’t mean to be curt or anything, but it’s just true. I think we’ve been spoiled a little bit lately by some of the phenoms who’ve come up and been instant stars that we sometimes forget that there’s going to be a natural adjustment period for young players, no matter how well they fared in the minor leagues. Also, he’s going to have to learn how to better handle left-handers.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 Any fun Yankees to keep tabs of in the FCL next month? Seems like Roderick Arias is the most interesting position player?

Josh Norris: Without knowing exactly who is going to get assigned there it’s hard to give a concrete answer to this question, but, yes, Roderick Arias will certainly be one to watch. Keiner Delgado should be fun, as could be Engelth Ureña, whom they are quite high on internally. On the pitching side, Brian Arias, Henry LaLane and Carlos LaGrange are intriguing arms.

Mike (Oconomowoc, WI):

 Any chance there will be a chat on the Top 100 adjustments, because there were a couple head scratchers for me. In terms of the hot sheet I’m shocked Mark Vientos got no love…If you had to buy future stock in Vientos, Matt McLain, Drew Gilbert or Hunter Goodman who ya got?

Josh Norris: 1) I don’t believe there will be chat on that topic. We’ve got another article coming tomorrow on some guys who could be next up. So look out for that. 2) Hot Sheet is always a case where there’s 20 spots and well more than 20 guys who had good weeks. That’s just the nature of the beast. 3) Of those four names, I’d probably side with Drew Gilbert first and then Hunter Goodman, who has gotten some early love from scouts.

ROD (Colorado):

 Josh ~ what’s your schedule for updating the 2023 Debut Player Signing Scouts table? https://view.mail.mlblists.com/messages/1683650506358aa48004f2605/raw

Josh Norris: I kinda do that sporadically, but I’ll get that done soon. Thanks for the reminder!

Deb (Bronx):

 What’s the offensive ceiling of Roman Anthony?

Josh Norris: In a word: High. Scouts were effusive in their praise of Anthony during the first few weeks of the season. There are some areas he needs to clean up (as is the case for every player in Low-A) but there are some really, really intriguing aspects to his game that aren’t common for prospects his age.

dave (Grayson, Ga):

 Any reports on the Braves’ Nacho Alvarez and his 28/12 walk to strikeout ratio? Is he passive, or does he just have very good strike zone judgment?

Josh Norris: Can it be both? He doesn’t swing very much at all, but he also doesn’t swing and miss very much either, whether we’re talking pitches inside or outside the zone.

Tim (SLC):

 Is Darrel Hernaiz close to any top 100 consideration?

Josh Norris: He has not come up in any of our discussions. He’s having a good year but it’s hard to be too high on a player who has not shown much in the way of power throughout the course of his career.

Carson Williams (Future hit tool?):

 Thanks for chatting with us today. Carson Williams’ K% is still inflated at 31% but trending down the last couple of weeks. Is his biggest issue still pitch recognition and if so how do you tangibly im prve somoehtig nlie that?k It felsl ike ea kill eister yho uhav or don’t. eIfhe can even become a 50 hit gunyare we talking about a to p10 -5 prospect becau1s how loud teh rest of his tools are?e

Josh Norris: Talked to a scout about him last week. Basically the summary here is that he’s likely always going to be a power-over-hit prospect and there’s an expected learning curve when dealing with spin. He shows flashes of being able to stay back and drive breaking balls, but it will be a process.

Michael (California):

 Luis Matos seems to be figuring things out again. Do you imagine that progress with swing decisions will eventually lead to a return to harder contact?

Josh Norris: I’m very happy for Matos, who had great success his first couple of years before hitting that speed bump last year in Eugene. The swing decisions are better, and the contact is pretty hard too. As of the beginning of the month, his 90th percentile EV was right around 104 mph, which places him in the company of some of the game’s better prospects.

Ben (Milwaukee):

 Any updates on Chourio? It seems like he has had some great highlights and holding his own even if he hasnt set the league on fire yet? Just seems like given he is BA’s #1 prospect, we would see some updates along the way? Is he on the verge of losing the top spot status, or is he proving he deserves to retain that title?

Josh Norris: Given the context of the league, especially given the advantage some pitchers are getting thanks to the pre-tacked baseballs and the way it’s amplified the IVB on their fastballs, Chourio’s line might be even better than it seems, especially given his age. Haven’t dug in super deep on him, but the scouts I have texted with about him haven’t had a negative word to say.

Andy (Lancaster):

 Great day with the hot sheet and the adjusted 100, thanks! Question about Casey Schmitt. Reportedly, he’s being called up today. He had a great and extended look with the Giants in ST. If he stays up and pushes past his prospect eligibility before the next list revision, will it have been an oversight of his talents or is Schmitt just a case of the right place at the right time?

Josh Norris: Kinda depends on how he performs over the course of his career, no? Schmitt is an intriguing player who is also going to get a lot of value from his glove, but there are some things to watch in the big leagues that have cropped up early in the season. Namely, he’s hitting the ball on the ground at a rate of nearly double what he did last year. That could also explain why he’s got just one home run this season. He’ll need to show a fair bit more power for the position in the long run.

DH (Pittsburgh):

 Curtis Mead hasn’t played in a while- do you know what’s wrong?

Josh Norris: He has a wrist injury and should be back in a couple of weeks.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 Do you think Clayton Beeter’s chances to actually start at the MLB level are better now than the industry’s perception of him before the season started?

Josh Norris: Beeter was a pretty good get for Joey Gallo, especially considering the way Gallo was playing at the time. A good bit of his success is due in part to the deception he gets in his delivery, but it’s not all smoke and mirrors by any means. FB plays better than its velocity because of the way it’s delivered and the slider is potentially plus pitch as well. CH is serviceable and the CB is a strike-stealer. There’s a chance to start here but he’s unlikely to be a mid- or top-rotation guy.

Steve (Houston):

 Hey Josh: Love your work! Curious if you’ve heard anything about Colin Barber this year? Even with so few pro ABs, it seems he’s off to a pretty good start in Double-A. Is his PT there in jeopardy because of Drew Gilbert’s promotion? Thanks!

Josh Norris: Colin Barber was a guy ID’d by scouts early in the season as someone to watch because of the combination of bat-to-ball skills, bat speed and potential power. Might be a tweener in center field but the power could help him profile in a corner if needed. Not sure how Gilbert will affect him, but I doubt he’ll get completely bumped out of the lineup or anything.

Josh Norris: Thanks for the questions, chatters. Until next time.