Hot Sheet Chat (5/31/23)

Geoff Pontes hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript here.

Zak (Japan):

 Can we dedicate a special Helium Watch to AJ Smith-Shawver? I don’t ever recall a later round high school pitcher to ascend this quickly to the majors. I’m curious to hear what you guys are seeing and hearing from other scouts about him

Geoff Pontes: Hey Zak! Yes, it’s been fairly unprecedented. I was at the ballpark today with a scout that saw him at Rome earlier this season. It seems like scouts have been impressed by the quality of the fastball and the slider, he’s started to work in the curveball too. In the end it comes down to his combination of velocity and ride on the fastball and the breaking ball quality off of that. The slider is like a mid-to-high-80s cutter and he’s comfortable throwing it as much as his fastball.

bill (NYC):

 If the Reds are playing service time games with De La Cruz, Abbbott, etc what is the date that they could bring them up?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Bill, thanks for joining. I think we could see either at any time, particularly if there is an injury. I’m not sure it’s service time as much as it’s roster construction stuff. Either is ready but we don’t have a clear idea of when they’ll be promoted. I’d be on alert however.

Frederick (Boston):

 Hi Geoff, thanks for the chat today. After a few clunkers early in the season, Wilmer Flores seems to have hit his stride and not allowed more than 2 ER in any other start. How have the reviews been for him this year? Any push to get him back on the top 100?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Frederick, thanks for joining! It’s a good sign that he’s getting outs again. We’ve gotten back-end starter reviews on him for a few years now. When we’ve had him in the top 100 we’ve gotten move down feedback. It’s not outrageous stuff or anything like that, he has a high level of pitchability. I am not sure if he’s an option for the Tigers this year, but I do think it’s a starter profile.

Taylor V (Seattle, WA):

 Gabriel Gonzalez is absolutely mashing, Is this a true breakout from him this year and he’s about to skyrocket up lists or are there still things under the hood holding him back? Could he be SEA’s #1 prospect in 2024? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Hello Taylor, thanks for joining us today! Gonzalez is interesting, it’s a power and contact profile with a really aggressive approach, he likes to swing it. he hits the ball hard, has a good EV average but the top end exit velocities aren’t great. That said he’s young and one of the best players in the Cal League this season.

Molly B. (New Jersey):

 Appreciate the chat today Geoff. Adael Amador continues to produce each season and has even upped his SLG this year. He currently ranks 65th on the top 100, how high do you think he can/will jump up this year? I see someone like Jackson Merrill at 17 on the top 100, who is the same age at the same level, and Amador has seemingly outperformed him at the plate across the board (including SLG!). Am I wrong to think Amador is a top 25 or better prospect right now?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Molly thanks for the question! I don’t think I’d go that far yet, he has been impressive and there’s been power gains. I think the home run number is a little inflated. It’s a contact and approach profile. Merrill might need to move down because he has struggled this year. The tough thing with Merrill is he’s trying to elevate the ball and is still adjusting. As far as swing and projection and the ability to play shortstop long term I still think Merrill is the better bet but he does have to hit. Amador might move up but I don’t think he jumps into the Top 25-30 just yet.

Dan (Baltimore, MD):

 Luis Matos hasn’t slowed down since his promotion from AA to Sacramento, though without much power at either level. Is he a 10-15 homer guy at peak? And do the Giants keep him in AAA for the remainder of 2023?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Dan thanks for the question! I think we’ll see Matos this summer. He’s on the 40-man roster which is the first hurdle. As far as the power goes, he’s just not that big of a guy. It’s a hit tool driven profile. That sort of player could find success hit the gaps in San Francisco.

Brandon (Massachusetts):

 Nate Pearson was once a very highly ranked prospect, but due to injuries he fell and is now a reliever. With the Blue Jays recent pitching struggles (Kikuchi and Manoah), is there a chance Pearson gets stretched out as a starter again? He’s performed quite well as a multi inning reliever, and could potentially step in as the fifth starter.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Brandon, thanks for chatting with me today! I think he’s best in this role, every time he’s been stretched out he eventually ends up on the IL. I would imagine they would go to other depth options in the organization before trying to stretch out Pearson.

Andrew (Chicago):

 Isaac Coffey is starting to stand out to me due to his K numbers combined with not many walks. Seems to give up a lot of homers on the negative side but curious if you have seen or heard anything about Isaac?

Geoff Pontes: He is fascinating because the stuff isn’t very good, it’s a sinker that sits 87-89 mph, mixes in a nasty changeup and two breaking balls that grade as above-average on Stuff+. I’m not sure what to make of it, he gets outlier armside run on his sinker and changeup and both the slider and curveball are solid. If can add a few ticks there might be something there but I don’t trust the performance to continue.

John M (San Diego):

 Hi Geoff, With Bryan Woo’s dominance the last month do you think he gets a promotion soon to either AAA or MLB? Or is there more for him to iron out that maybe isn’t showing up in the box scores? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Hi John and thanks for the question! I think the fastball and slider could definitely work in MLB now, lacks a third pitch but that seems to be less of an issue when you have this fastball quality. I talked about it on the hot sheet podcast today. He has outlier release and vertical approach angle on his fastball and a good slider. I imagine they’d like to see more development of a third pitch but a promotion to Tacoma or Seattle wouldn’t surprise me in a week or two.

Matthew (Salem):

 Have you had a super beef heavy sauce as of late? North Shore Represent!

Geoff Pontes: Matthew! How are you? I haven’t had one in years, I need a ballpark in the North Shore so I can get back on my beef game.

Miggy (Chicago):

 Jud Fabian has been heating up the last week and a half and keeping his Ks down in Aberdeen, does he appear to be progressing well there?

Geoff Pontes: Yes! To be fair I’m more of Fabian fan that anyone on staff… That said I’ve gotten good reports this year and most scouts I talk with prefer him to Dylan Beavers. Can play all three outfield positions, great approach and power. He’s always going to swing and miss but he rarely expands the zone. High fastballs still give him trouble.

Aaron (Kenosha):

 Hello Geoff, Last year about this time, you published an article titled: 14 Lower-Profile Draft Picks Who Have Raised Their Stock Significantly In Only A Year, which turned out to be a who’s who of significant prospects such as CES, JHM, Tanner Bibee, Bryce Miller, etc. I was wondering if you had anything like that in store for us this year. Thank you.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Aaron thanks for joining and thanks for reading! I actually released that article a couple of weeks ago. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/sixteen-up-arrow-prospects-drafted-after-the-first-round-in-2022/

Nick (San Carlos, CA):

 Between Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt, and Landon Knack, which do you think is closest to the majors, and do you think any has a chance to at least debut in the majors this season? And what do you think is a fair ~80th percentile positive long-term outcome for each (i.e., high-variance 4th starter, multi-inning reliever, elite leverage setup man, etc.)?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Nick and thanks for the question. My guess is Sheehan is the closest to the majors but it’s going to depend how he progresses over the next month or so. I do think he’ll see some time in Triple-A. I think Sheehan is a mid-rotation guy by those standards, Knack a back end starter and Hurt can be a shutdown bullpen guy. Hurt for me is the wild card because there’s been a ton of progress the last few seasons under the Dodgers dev.

Jim (Berlin, NJ):

 The drumbeat to promote De La Cruz gets louder and louder. Can you make the unpopular case for keeping him in AAA so that he can demonstrate his refinement of strike zone discipline for longer than one month? I get it — he’s got freakish tools. What’s the harm in polishing a gem?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Jim and thanks for chatting! I will not make a case for Elly staying down! We want Elly! Haha but truthfully there’s maybe some more refinement on his swing decisions but there’s been improvement. The ABS has been kinder to him than the challenge system as well, so it’s tough to get a great gauge on how much the swing decisions are still lacking.

Sam (NYC):

 Brady House: back in top 100? Thanks

Geoff Pontes: It’s been a good spring for House but the scout feedback just isn’t there. The underlying numbers aren’t as good as you might think for his line either.

Jack (MA):

 I keep hearing that Roman Anthony has great underlying metrics. His top line numbers are creeping up now in May. What kind of prospect do you think he will be?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Jack, thanks for joining. I think he could be the Red Sox best prospect when it’s all said and done, but I’m trying to be cautious until the production matches the exit velocity, chase and contact numbers. So far he’s hitting the ball on the ground too much so it’s about finding a way to tap into that power without tanking the approach.

Benny Funk (Loxahatchee FL):

 I know this chat should be about one of the 20 hottest prospects from the last week, but the hottest story in the prospect world at the moment is the Padres decision to start Salas in full season Low-A ball to begin his pro career. I’ve read all of the BA reports about Salas. He’s obviously oozing with talent and acumen. Based on age and present talent, is he the most hyped offensive prospect since Bryce Harper?

Geoff Pontes: That’s tough, probably not as hyped as Jasson Dominguez was but it’s not far behind. What he’s doing at his age is unheard of.

James (NC):

 What is Zach Dezenzo’s positional outlook and ceiling. Is it too optimistic to think he might succeed Bregman in 2025 if they don’t extend him.

Geoff Pontes: I think he’s probably ends up an everyday corner outfielder or multi-position guy who’s bat keeps him in the lineup. Replacing Bregman probably not as his defense isn’t great at third.

Tyler Locklear (Everett, WA):

 As a recently drafted college bat, shouldn’t I be tearing it up in High A? How long before I get promoted to AA? Will I ever make a top 100 – real life or fantasy? What power hitting 1B would you comp me to?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Tyler keep mashing! Haha I think the promotion could be coming soonish, and you’re in discussion at the backend of the Top 100 but not quite there just yet. I’ll be lazy and throw a Ty France comp, tough because I don’t think he’s going to be super high walk guy but the approach is fine and compliments the contact and power more than it drives it.

Joseph (NYC):

 Who is this year’s Jackson Chourio?

Geoff Pontes: I don’t think there is one.

Justin (Tucson):

 Which of these players project to have the bigger offensive impact at the major league level? Tyler Locklear vs Nathan Martorella? Adael Amador vs James Triantos? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Hey Justin thanks for the question. I’ll go with Martorella and Amador. The Amador one is easier for me to pinpoint, the Martorella versus Locklear one is a toss up. Martorella better approach with similar everything else.

Barry (Niagara):

 thanks for the chat…Brandon Walter seemingly came out of nowhere last year to get a bunch of recognition from you all at BA…and I really liked how the scouting report talked about how his stuff will play in MLB…but then this year it’s been (justifiably) crickets. Is this a case of a prospect having a good year that ends up being an outlier…or is there still hope his profile will get him to the show? LHP that initiate that many ground balls don’t grow on trees…

Geoff Pontes: He’s dealt with injuries and that’s caused some of the stuff to tick down, I think scouts are still in, but Drohan has passed him.

The Mayor (Virginia):

 Hi thank you for having me! Between westburg, Cowser, kjerstad, norby, who do you see having the highest offensive upside? Also if you had to guess which of those could you see the Orioles parting ways with in a trade? Thank you.

Geoff Pontes: Hey it’s The Mayor thanks for joining us Mr. Mayor! I’m going to go with Cowser he’s had the best reports of that group and I think you’re looking at elite approach and power with the ability to play centerfield. It wouldn’t shock me if one of Westburg or Kjerstad gets traded.

Scott (Boston):

 Any plans to update org top 30’s in June?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Scott! Starting next week!

Lou (Philadelphia):

 What happens first: a) Robert DiNiro fathers another child. b) Al Pacino fathers another child. c) Justin Crawford is a productive two-way player for the Phils? Side note: did you know it has been 24 years since the Phils tabbed an OF from the amateur draft who had consecutive seasons of 500 AB? Pat Burrell holds that ignominious distinction.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Lou! Great and hilarious question. I’m going with Justin Crawford here, if only for the betterment of mankind!

Jon (MA):

 We a couple months into the season and Nick Yorke has a ~900 OPS. It seems like maybe his bad 2022 was largely due to injury issues. Is he back on track as a Top 100 prospect and future quality bat first regular at 2B?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Jon thanks for joining, I think Yorke looks back, he can hit, I don’t know if he’s a star but an everyday second baseman for sure.

Joey Baggadonuts (Fluffia, PA):

 Do the Cardinals regret bringing Jordan Walker north to start the season? Given their glut of OFers and DH types, what was gained by the 3-week experiment? What was learned that wasn’t (or should have been) apparent to their own development team who presumably had a voice in his promotion?

Geoff Pontes: I think there were always concerns with the approach and defense in the outfield but he was the star of spring training. This happens, he’s young and there will be struggles. Never a bad thing to challenge a player like this.

Bob (MO):

 It was a surprise that the Cards skipped Jonathan Mejia up to lo-A. Is there some buzz there that we haven’t heard?

Geoff Pontes: It seems like it’s becoming more common. Meija is an advanced hitter I expect to see him in full-season by August but this is good to see.

Mike (Reality):

 Is what Jared Serna is doing for real or just a hot streak? How do his contact, swing decision, and ev numbers look? Is there anything here or is it org depth with a bit of upside? Thanks for the chat.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Mike! I think it’s mostly real, there’s power and legit bat-to-ball skills but the approach is a little aggressive. He’s always been able to hit.

MC (CA):

 What is going on with Emmanuel Rodriguez? I thought he was better than this.

Geoff Pontes: The contact is a major question mark and at times he’s overly passive. I think the combination of passivity and bad bat to ball skills have come home to roost. The combination on power and tools make me not want to write it off.

Josué de Paula (Rancho Cucamonga):

 What are you hearing about me? Surprised I’m starting in Low A?

Geoff Pontes: I’ve been talking about you for a year or so now. Elite projection and a nickname like mini-Yordan is legit. Great plate skills with power projection one of the most exciting teenage prospects in baseball.

Sam (NYC):

 Thanks for the chat – With the catching issues going on in St Louis, why don’t they simply turn to Ivan Herrera? What else does he have to prove in AAA? If not now, when do you think his ETA is? Thanks –

Geoff Pontes: The big issue has been the catching, it’s not an upgrade from Willson IMO.