Hot Sheet Chat (5/31/22)

Image credit: Vinnie Pasquantino (Tracy Proffitt/Four Seam Images)

Kyle Glaser answered questions regarding this week’s Hot Sheet from 2-3 p.m. ET today. You can read the transcript below.

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, hope you all had a good Memorial Day. Look forward to chatting with you all today. Let’s get started.

Joe (CT):

 Are you concerned by Noelvi Marte’s start to the season?

Kyle Glaser: Yes. The main concern is how out of shape Marte has gotten. It’s affected every part of his game. It’s made him a significantly worse defender whose chances of staying at shortstop have basically dropped to zero, his arm stroke has been really ugly and his swing has gone backwards, too. He’s going to drop quite a bit in the updated Top 100 coming out this week.

Jerry (Chicago):

 Thanks for the chat. With the Cubs looking like a near bottom team it really has me looking towards the future. I hear a lot of buzz about Cristian Hernandez. Have you heard any words coming out of extended, how is he performing?

Kyle Glaser: Hernandez has been playing a really good shortstop and showing plenty of bat speed and power. He’s swinging and missing more than you’d like, but he’s also a teenager in his first couple of months stateside. Keep in mind extended is a lot of guys getting their feet under them, just like regular spring training, so I wouldn’t go crazy in either direction based on any extended ST performances.

Roger (East Rutherford NJ):

 Evan Carter looks he has the making of a decent prospect. Can you give us a little more insight on his tools?

Kyle Glaser: Carter is a riser. What makes him special is more his polish than his raw tools. He has elite plate discipline, makes consistent contact and is a really polished, mature defender in center field. He’s just a really good all-around player and someone you’ll see rise up a good bit in the Top 100 update coming out soon.

Milo (East of the Rockies):

 Obvious Question of the Week: What more does Italian Breakfast have to prove in Omaha? There are numerous open positions (1B/DH) on the big league club and it seems his bat could spark some fan enthusiasm on the upcoming homestand.

Kyle Glaser: Not much. The only reason Pasquantino is still down in Triple-A is the Royals are praying Carlos Santana will do something – anything – to give him a modicum of value at the trade deadline (which likely won’t happen). The sooner he comes up, the better for the Royals in both the short and long term.

Tom (Portland, OR):

 Hi, Kyle. As a Jays fan I’m particularly starved for outfield prospects, but Gabriel Martinez seems to have a “tweener” vibe to him. Is it too early to slap that label on him?

Kyle Glaser: Martinez is slugging .532 as a teenager in the Florida State League. He has plenty of power for a corner, which is where he projects to play. He’s not really a tweener at all. He’s a potential power-hitting corner outfielder with plenty of bat speed, a projectable frame and enough contact skills to get to his power, although he’s a touch aggressive right now and needs to rein that in a bit.

Elliot (Youngstown OH):

 Any update on Espino’s return?

Kyle Glaser: No return date has been set for Espino yet. He’s just trying to get healthy.

Milo (East of the Rockies):

 Do you have a comparable player for Ezequiel Tovar? Is this power surge at AA sign of things to come?

Kyle Glaser: I’m going to stay away from comps. As for the power, Tovar showed thump in his bat even last year when I saw him at Fresno. It wasn’t hard to see with a little bit of physical maturation, some of those long, loud fly balls to the track would start going over the fence. We’re seeing that happen now. He’s a really good player who’s maturing in exciting ways.

Ken (Lakewood CA):

 Thanks Kyle. Enjoy your chats the most. Is there any hope for Campusano ever really catching for the Padres? Is it his glove that holds him back? Does he need to go to a different team to actually get an opportunity? He hits AAA pitching but doesn’t seem to hit well when given the chance to play for the Padres in brief times when he’s been brought up. Just where do you think he stands with the organization?

Kyle Glaser: Thanks Ken. The Padres really value what Austin Nola does for the pitching staff and with the way the team’s starters are performing right now, they’re not going to mess with that anytime soon. Realistically, Campusano needs a trade to get everyday playing time. He’s ready, but the opportunity isn’t there in San Diego.

Ken (Lakewood CA):

 Logan Allen pitched well in AA last year. Sent back to AA this year and his stats say he is doing good. Cleveland seems to have an endless supply of young pitching. Do you think he vever gets a chance to show what he can do in the big leagues? They haven’t even promoted him to AAA. What does he need to do to be given an opportunity? Perhaps he needs to get traded to a different organization? How about they trade him as part of a deal for an OF? Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: Allen will get the chance for the Guardians. Cleveland trades its standout pitchers as soon as they get expensive (see: Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer and Clevinger, although Bauer and Clevinger had some extenuating circumstances) and it will be the same for years to come. As veterans get traded, the young guys will get their shot, and Allen will be one of them.

Sam (NYC):

 Hi – Thanks for the chat – Liover Peguero is putting up nice offensive numbers in AA – Do you see the Bucs calling him up this year? They don’t have anyone currently on the roster and playing SS who arguably could stand in the way – Thanks –

Kyle Glaser: Hey Sam, my pleasure. That would be aggressive, but it’s certainly not impossible Peguero gets bumped to Triple-A at midseason, performs well there and maybe gets a callup. Keep in mind the Pirates aren’t trying to win this season and the priority is making sure guys are developed properly. Just because they don’t have someone in the majors doesn’t mean they should rush a prospect before he’s ready. That’s the worst of both worlds.

CCP (Taiwan):

 Braves call up their top prospect Michael Harris II this week. Is him ready for MLB right now?

Kyle Glaser: With the plate discipline improvements Harris made, he’s earned the shot to show he’s ready. It’ll be fun to see how his debut goes. He’s a talented player.

NB (philly):

 Hey Kyle -Thanks for the chat! Myrtle Beach keeps on piling on wins. Kevin Alcantra and James Triantos both had strong weeks last week to cap off a strong May for each of them. Just curious about if they were in consideration this week and how you feel about their seasons to date. Thx!

Kyle Glaser: Hey NB, no problem. There were a lot of good performances this week and a bunch of tough cuts. Triantos has a really good feel for the barrel and there really isn’t any doubt he’s going to hit. Where he’s going to play defensively is a different matter, but if you can hit, someone will find a spot for you. It’s good to see Alcantara progressing. He’s a big, long-levered guy whose swing was kind of all over the place when I saw him at the end of April, but he’s making some adjustments to get everything more in sync, shorter and on time, and it’s paying off.

CJ Abrams (Struggling in AAA):

 Are you worried at all about my start to the season since being sent down?

Kyle Glaser: No. People seem to forget that Triple-A is still very, very good baseball (hell, it’s the third-highest level in the world behind only MLB and NPB) and it often takes an adjustment period. Abrams was not ready to be in the majors, and his short stint with inconsistent playing time up there wasn’t going to preclude him from having an adjustment period once he got to Triple-A. He’s hitting .300/.364/.420 in his last 11 games at El Paso, so it looks like he’s coming out of it. He’s fine.

Gwinn (Lake Forrest):

 thanks for the chat, two Reds questions: Michael Siani seems to have improved from last year in terms of getting on base, but is it good enough to consider him a viable big league prospect? And Joe Boyle, can we start considering him a starting pitcher or is he still ultimately slated as a late inning reliever?

Kyle Glaser: Siani just doesn’t hit enough to project to be a big leaguer. Even with the defense, he has to hit significantly more than he ever has to be even a reserve outfielder who sticks on a big league bench. The bat just isn’t there. As for Boyle, he’s walking 6.4 per nine – he’s a reliever, and will need to improve his walk rate to even get there. Starting in the majors isn’t really in the cards for him.

Kerry Wood (Las Vegas):

 I see Kerry Carpenter is having himself a fine season in AA. Lots of strikeouts though. Will he be able to continue the success in AAA? The majors?

Kyle Glaser: Striking out 30% of the time at Double-A does generally not bode well for success in the majors. Carpenter is having a good season, but a big part of his development moving forward is going to be cutting those strikeouts down in order to project to have success in the majors.

Molly (New Jersey):

 Do you think Griff McGarry will ever have enough control to be useful in the majors (as a SP or RP)? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: It’s possible McGarry figures some things out enough to be a reliever. A starter isn’t really in the mix for him.

Corey (Seattle):

 Luisangel Acuna has missed a good chunk of the year with injuries but he’s already matched top prospects Noelvi Marte and Nick Yorke as 20 year olds with 4 HRs at A+. Can Acuna join them in the top 50?

Kyle Glaser: Acuna is off to a really nice start. It’s only been 14 games so we need to see how pitchers adjust to him the second time through the league, and what counter-adjustments he makes, but it’s certainly a start that forces you to pay attention.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 Do you think there is a pick cut off that you would expect Dylan Lesko to go to college, i.e. not picked within the first 15 or so picks?

Kyle Glaser: Only Lesko knows that. Generally, it’s more about the signing bonus than the pick number, although some players do value the pick (and round) number in their decision. The only somewhat comparable precedent for this is Lucas Giolito going 16th overall to the Nationals and receiving an above-slot signing bonus in 2012. (Giolito hadn’t had TJ yet but it wasn’t a secret he was going to need it). A similar outcome for Lesko would not be a surprise.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 The NFL draft combine typically produces gossip among NFL executives over teams’ draft choices and often gives a good idea of how the first couple picks will go. Do you think the MLB combine will produce similar info/gossip or are decision makers still spread out around the country scouting players?

Kyle Glaser: There’s lots of gossip and rumors floating around even at just regular high school and college games. The combine will have almost every high-level decision-maker in baseball there. Expect the rumor mill to be flying at the combine.

Derek (Texas):

 Any injury updates on Cody Morris or Daniel Espino? And also, what are your thoughts on Bryce Miller for SEA?

Kyle Glaser: We had injury updates on both Morris and Espino in our injury update post last week. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/prospect-injury-updates-news-on-nick-bitsko-james-wood-brennen-davis-and-more/. As for Miller, the fastball remains explosive and the secondaries are still good. The biggest change this year is his control. There are still starter-reliever questions and most lean reliever, but his control uptick has at least created some moments where he looks starter-ish, where in the past he was a pure relief projection.

Chuck (Detroit):

 The scouting report from Baseball America prior to the start of the season pegged Wilmer Flores ceiling as a number 4 starter. With his improved velocity and command has that profile changed?

Kyle Glaser: J.J. Cooper, who does the Tigers list for us, has noted there might be a mid-rotation chance now for Flores with how much he’s improved. Keep in mind this is a rapidly improving player, so his “ceiling” is very fluid right now.

Mike (St. Louis):

 How close is Gordon Graceffo to being a top 100 prospect?

Kyle Glaser: Closer than you might think, although we need to see Graceffo do it at Double-A. His delivery helped him throw off hitters’ timing at the lower levels. Proving it still works against upper-level hitters is the main question he has to answer, and he’s getting his shot now.

Larry (Tampa Bay):

 Is this what Vidal Brujan is? Can he handle major league velocity?

Kyle Glaser: I’ve always been the low man on Brujan. I think he’s a speed and versatility utility type. I don’t think the bat is there for him to be an everyday player – never have.

Kip (Hawaii):

 Reds pitching seems to be breaking out this year. How do you rank Boyle, Bonnin, Abbott going forward?

Kyle Glaser: The answer is in our team top 30 rankings. How they’re ranked there is how they project moving forward.

Justin (Tucson, AZ):

 Is Ezekiel Tovar this season’s Anthony Volpe as a pop up top 10 prospect who plays SS? And based on their numbers at AA with Tovar being younger, is Tovar the better prospect? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Tovar is doing it at Double-A, which is a big difference than doing it at A/A+ as Volpe did a year ago. Tovar is climbing rapidly. He hasn’t surpassed Volpe yet, but if he keeps this up, the discussion is going to be closer than many people might think.

Chauncey (Centennial):

 What are your thoughts and concerns,if any regarding the relatively slow start for Khalil Watson?

Kyle Glaser: The concern is how much Watson is chasing and swinging and missing. The rates are astronomical and extremely concerning.

Chaunce (Centennial):

 Are you at all surprised at how well Jordan Lawlor has hit so far? Are you surprised at his power and stolen base production! What are the chances that he moves up a level in the near future?

Kyle Glaser: I wasn’t surprised once I saw Lawlar for myself earlier this year. He’s so twitchy and explosive that even when he doesn’t square balls up, they still fly because of how fast his bat is. The stolen base production isn’t a surprise, either. He still swung and missed at times within ABs, but he made adjustments to avoid punching out, which was really good to see. As far as moving up a level, he just went on the IL with a back injury, so sadly, we have to see what that recovery timeline looks like before any promotions take place.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 Any concerns over Jordan Walker’s power tool this season?

Kyle Glaser: Zero concerns about Walker’s power. He’s slugging .483 in Double-A as a 20-year-old while hitting for average and getting on base. There is nothing to be concerned about offensively, at all.

Zak (Boston):

 I see Emerson Hancock came back from his injury and pitched well. Any reports as far as how he looked?

Kyle Glaser: Hancock’s stuff has looked good since he’s returned. FB 93-94, touch 96, SL had more movement than in the past and the CH played well. The one thing that has come up is it’s becoming clearer and clearer he’s going to be more of a soft-contact type of pitcher than a big strikeout pitcher, which is fine. Staying healthy for an extended period is going to be the main thing he has to prove he can do.

Zak (Boston):

 Kind of off topic, but I thought it was cool that Anderson Espinoza was called up to the majors, given all the injuries he has had. With that said, have you spoken with any scouts who has seen him pitch this year? Does he still project as a MLB player?

Kyle Glaser: I mean, Espinoza is pitching in the majors, so by definition he’s a major league player. In terms of staying power, the answer is no, scouts did not see a guy who projects to have a major league role long term. That said, he’s only in his second year back after missing four straight seasons, so we’ll see if things improve the more reps he gets on the mound. In any case, it’s awesome to see him in the majors, in any capacity, after everything he’s been through.

Ken (Brick NJ):

 Do you feel like some prospects are being rushed too fast. 2020 was an empty year for many and I feel like many are struggling to start the year. Bart, Stott, Torkelson. I feel like they have been rushed and need more time. Or do you feel like maybe they are not as good as once projected

Kyle Glaser: They, and many other prospects, were rushed given there was no 2020 minor league season. They’re all talented players, but Bart especially – and Jo Adell fits in this too – I do wonder if the way they were handled in 2020 messed with them so much that they’ll never quite be what they could have been. I hope that’s not the case, but we won’t have a definitive answer for many years.

Neal (Columbia, SC):

 Any news on Jeferson Espinal? He had alot of helium but all has gone radio silent on him.

Kyle Glaser: The D-backs traded him to the Rangers for Yonny Hernandez on April 7 and he hasn’t played since.

Brian (Maryland):

 What do you see as Grayson Rodriguez realistic ceiling at the MLB level? Also a guess on when we finally see him. I am not sure what else he has to show to get the call.

Kyle Glaser: Rodriguez has a chance to be a true ace. He’s one of the few pitching prospects who has a legitimate chance to be No. 1 starter. The one thing he needed to do was show he could pitch deep into games against upper-level hitters, and he did that last week. It wouldn’t hurt to see him do it again, but the time for his callup is certainly approaching.

Ben (Indiana):

 With the recent talks of Juan Soto being a potential trade candidate, what teams that are close to contention really in a position to make a deal? The Red Sox seem like a fit with guys like Mayer, Casas, Yorke, Bello types. Padres maybe with Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, and others. Do you think anyone would unload the farm for a single player? Prospects seem more valuable than ever, but Soto is a generational talent and the best long term hitter in baseball in my opinion. Do you think the lack of success around Trout (the best player in baseball for a decade) play to the fact people don’t value an elite single player in the same light versus depth to combat injuries and the ability to trade for key deadline pieces and not superstars to get over the hump?

Kyle Glaser: There’s a lot to unpack in this question. First, let me say this – there is no prospects-only package worth Soto. The price starts with at least one controllable, standout young big leaguer and probably two. For the Padres, that would mean including MacKenzie Gore. The Red Sox probably don’t have that guy. Then add two Top 100 prospects on top of it and another high-quality 10-30 guy, minimum. The Padres have the pieces to pull that off. So do the Dodgers, Rays, Mariners and maybe the Twins. But realistically, what it would cost to acquire Soto would probably be so prohibitive, it’s hard to imagine a deal getting done at this point. The Nationals are every bit in the right to hold onto him unless they get full, fair value, and I don’t see a team paying that price. As for valuing an elite player, don’t kid yourself. People value Trout and Soto and the like for the elite players they are and would absolutely love to have them, just not at the cost of potentially gutting key parts of their team.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 Are you concerned by Nick Yorke’s start to the season?

Kyle Glaser: Maybe a little bit, but not overly so. Keep in mind Yorke got off to a slow start last year, too and he seems to be coming around a bit the last two weeks or so. I wouldn’t panic.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 Can Gunnar Henderson be a top 10 prospect by the end of the season?

Kyle Glaser: That’s a bit rich for me personally, but I know there are others who believe Henderson has that type of potential.

DJ (WI):

 Can Hunter Brown be a viable MLB starter, or does he appear better suited for a reliever role?

Kyle Glaser: That’s the million dollar question. If Brown can hold the control gains he showed his last two outings, yes. If he doesn’t, the bullpen will be the best place for him.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 Considering Corbin Carroll’s size, is his power tear sustainable?

Kyle Glaser: Carroll has always had more thump than you’d think given his size, even dating back to high school. He’s playing in Amarillo where the ball flies and isn’t going to slug .632 in the majors like he is right now in Double-A, but he has enough juice in his bat to get to 15-20 home runs and maybe more in some of his best seasons.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 Who has the highest ceiling between Lawlar, Wood and Mayer?

Kyle Glaser: That’s an interesting question. Ultimately, the bat is what makes you a star and Mayer’s bat is the one I believe in most. That said, Lawlar’s ability to do so many different things even if he swings and misses more often and Wood’s freakish power and athleticism combination gives them each a shot. I’m always going to bet on the bat, and that edge goes to Mayer, but they’re all really good players with a lot of potential.

James (North East, MD):

 Once you get past Rodriguez and Hall, the O’s pitching prospects are hard to find. Anyone we should keep an eye on?

Kyle Glaser: Not really, which is why I’ve said on multiple occasions that for the Orioles rebuild to work, they’re going to need to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on free agent pitchers when they’re ready to compete (similar to the Cubs signing Jon Lester and John Lackey) and/or swing a really smart trade or two (i.e. the Cubs acquisitions of Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks). In reality, they’ll probably need to do both in order to fill out a playoff-caliber rotation. Whether the Angelos family is willing to pour the money and the resources into doing so may very well be the single biggest factor in whether the Orioles rebuild works.

Andy (Atlanta, GA):

 What are your thoughts on Benny Montgomery’s performance this season? Any update on when he comes back from his injury?

Kyle Glaser: Montgomery showed really good athleticism in the outfield but looked really raw in the batter’s box in his first 15 games. No timeline has been announced for his return.

DJ (Madison, WI):

 Despite just having turned 18 this spring could a reasonable argument be made that Jackson Chourio is already the top prospect in the Brewers system?

Kyle Glaser: Most people both internally and externally believe Chourio is, in fact, the Brewers best prospect. You’ll see him move up quite a bit in our next Top 100 update.

Jeff (Riverside):

 Angels position player prospects once again performing sub par. How alarming is it and is there a potential standout among the young upside bats?

Kyle Glaser: It’s bad, not going to lie. None of Angels position player prospects project as an everyday player at this point, upper levels or lower levels. Honestly, Mike Stefanic might be your best bet, just as Jared Walsh and David Fletcher were the best position players in the Angels system at the time, even if no one knew it. Stefanic can hit, and that will take him a lot farther than the young, toolsy guys who can’t.

Devon (San Francisco):

 Hey Kyle! I have a question about how teams handle mental health issues internally? I’m a licensed social worker and would love to work with athletes. Do teams employ social workers in other capacities? The makeup side of things must be a frontier some teams are exploring?

Kyle Glaser: Hi Devon, a lot of teams employ team psychologists, mental skills coordinators and other health professionals and also offer Employee Assistance Programs to their players in both the majors and minors. Teams have spent a lot of time and money investing in the makeup and mental health components of their organization, and I only expect that to keep increasing.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 Any concerns about the Yankees SS- Volpe, Peraza, Sweeney and Vargas?

Kyle Glaser: Not a lot of concern about Volpe. One of the things that scouts and executives have noted is the Yankees were doing some odd things with him developmentally this year and it took him a while to shake them off and just be himself. He’s started to turn things around the last 10-12 days and looks like he’s coming out of it. Peraza is looking more and more like a defense-first utilityman and the reviews and evaluations of Sweeney have been really bad, no easy way to say it. It’s still early in the season though, so let’s see what adjustments they make as the year goes on.

MC (CA):

 What is your take on Estuery Ruiz. Is this for real?

Kyle Glaser: I personally want to see Ruiz sustain his improved swing decisions and strike-zone discipline for at least another month and then again at Triple-A against higher-level pitching before I buy in fully. But he’s doing what he needed to do, which is good to see and a testament to him for putting in the work.

tom (pittsburgh):

 BA gives Salinas a lot of coverage. Do you see him rising into the top 100?

Kyle Glaser: Not while averaging 5.3 BB/9. Keep in mind it is our job, as reporters, to report what is happening around the minors. Just because we report factually that someone leads the minors in strikeouts or has taken a jump in his stuff does not mean he’s going on the Top 100.

Frank (Jersey):

 Do the Phillies start a fire sale?

Kyle Glaser: That’s not really in Dave Dombrowski’s nature, but another 4-11 stretch like this, they might not have a choice.

Matt (Co):

 What time are you hearing the MLB draft starts the Sunday of All Star Weekend. Thanks from a baseball fan who’ll be there All Star weekend.

Kyle Glaser: The draft began at 7 pm ET in Colorado last year. I assume it’s the same this year, but have not heard officially.

Bill B (Glen Allen VA):

 Any update on Cade Cavalli? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Cavalli is really struggling with his fastball right now. He’s lost some ride and it’s been very hittable, even at his high-end velocities. Add in below-average control, and it’s just not a good combination right now.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week.