Hot Sheet Chat (5/23/23)

Kyle Glaser hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript below.

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out today. Let’s chat.

 

Scott (Boston):

 Is Blayne Enlow putting himself back on the map this season? Stat line looks really good

Kyle Glaser: It’s fairly common for guys to get back to being their best self their second year back from Tommy John surgery. That certainly seems to be the case for Enlow. He’s looked very good so far this year. Stuff, delivery, control – it’s all looked good.

Adam (Bluff City):

 So Chandler Simpson’s speed is just ridiculous. I’ve seen clips where he hits comebackers to the pitcher that he is somehow able to beat the throws on. He’ll never be a power hitter, obviously. But he doesn’t seem to strikeout too much and when he puts the ball in play, he could potentially beat out any groundball. What needs to happen in order for him to make the leap to being a Top 10 prospect in the Rays system?

Kyle Glaser: Simpson can fly. Keep in mind he’s college draftee – and one from the ACC at that – playing vastly inferior competition at Low-A right now. Once he gets to High-A and starts showing he can hit age-appropriate competition, you’ll see him move up.

Adam (Bluff City):

 Xavier Isaac looks to have incredible bat speed according to the eye test. Is this just wishful thinking, or does the data back it up?

Kyle Glaser: Isaac’s bat speed has been renowned since high school. He’s got the bat speed and huge raw power, but he’s still learning how to translate that into production in pro ball. The pure bat speed is there.

Rob (Philadelphia):

 High A looks too easy for Holliday… What do you think are the chances that Holliday makes it to the show this year? This looks almost like a Soto esque jump through the minors.

Kyle Glaser: Zero. Jackson Holliday is very, very talented. He’s also 19 years old and has played 54 career minor league games, none above the Class A levels. Soto – who is the outlier of all outliers – played 122 minor league games before getting the call. Holliday is a special talent, but you have to remember it’s an enormous gulf between A-ball and the majors. Just let him continue to develop step by step. Even if Holliday reaches the majors next year, he’ll still be 20 years old and extremely ahead of the curve. There is no reason to rush this.

LEE (Seoul):

 Blue Jays not only look like the big leagues are in despair, but also the farm system is in disrepair. Is there no hope?

Kyle Glaser: The Blue Jays have a winning record and are coming off back-to-back 90 win seasons. I would hardly call that a team in despair. The farm system is light, but it’s for the right reasons: they successfully developed and graduated a bunch of key players to the majors (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah, Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, Jordan Romano) and used other top prospects to acquire talented veterans in trades (Matt Chapman, Jose Berrios, Daulton Varsho). They did everything right. It just takes time to backfill the farm system. Their present issues are because Manoah, Berrios, Varsho and Jansen are all underpeforming right now, as are Kirk and George Springer. That has to get fixed, but these guys are too talented to expect all of them to continue to perform like they have been. It’s an issue, but to say there is no hope is vastly overstating it.

Bob (MO):

 Even in a “hot” week Gavin Cross’ strike out issue is evident. Did people not give enough weight to his 25% K rate in lo-A last year? He doesn’t look like the fast mover with an above average hit tool from his winter report. How worried should we be that the Royals turned another high draft pick into an underwhelming prospect?

Kyle Glaser: Cross’ strikeouts are certainly concerning, no two ways about it. I will say he’s getting better month over month, both in terms of K rate and overall production, so let’s see how he continues to progress over the course of the season and if it continues to come down. Baseball is a game of adjustments and we’re still less than two months into his first full season. Let’s see if he continues to improve as the year goes on.

Jack (PA):

 It was a surprise that Peguero returned to AA, but after a slow start he’s playing as well as he ever has. Would you expect a promotion soon and does he still profile as an above average regular at SS? Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: It’s reasonable to expect a promotion to Triple-A if Peguero continues to play like he has been. He has the raw ingredients to potentially be an above-average regular at SS, but consistency has always been a big issue for him. Watching if he’s able to maintain a solid approach, play reliable defense and be a steady performer day in and day out – as opposed to just showing dazzling flashes – is going to be key for him to reach his potential.

Scott (FL):

 Is anything holding back Westburg apart from a 40 man roster crunch? The surface numbers seem hard to suggest he’s not ready for a shot after being in AAA for parts of the last two seasons

Kyle Glaser: Westburg has done everything he can to deserve a callup. With Jorge Mateo tailing off and Gunnar Henderson looking like he might need a reset (although he’s been better the last 10 days or so), it should be only a matter of time before Westburg gets the call.

Ken (Lakewood CA):

 It’s way early for Lara. But he is impressive playing in Low A. He is listed at 5’9/155, but you’ve said sometimes these stats can be outdated. Does he have a chance to be bigger and have more power going forward?

Kyle Glaser: Heights and weights for international signees are taken when they sign at 16 and often not officially updated until they get to the majors 6-7 years later. Lara is bigger than that listed height and weight and yes, he has a chance to continue getting bigger and stronger and to develop more power, just as almost all 18 year olds do.

Matt (Co):

 Jackson Holliday is on fire right now. Marcelo Mayer is doing very well for himself. What are the chances we see both players in AA ball by July?

Kyle Glaser: Reasonably high. A ton of promotions typically come around the All-Star break. I think the odds of both being promoted to Double-A by or around then are certainly high. That assumes they stay healthy and keep playing as they have been, of course.

Fred (Illinois):

 I understand that teams often have good reasons for keeping a player down even when fans are calling for a promotion, but is there a good reason Nolan Jones isn’t getting a chance in Denver?

Kyle Glaser: Part of the issue is Jones’ best position, right field, is occupied by Kris Bryant. He’s not particularly reliable defensively at third base. Still, with the way he’s hitting and the offensive struggles the Rockies are having, he should get a shot sooner rather than later.

David W (LA):

 Long term, what do you think of Robby Snelling (SD)? When do you think he could hit the majors? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Snelling has a chance to be a really good lefthanded starter. I can see mid-rotation, I can see maybe more. Like all young pitchers, a lot is going to depend on health and how he develops physically. But in terms of stuff, control, toughness and poise, the foundation is all there.

Bob Uecker (Outside):

 How would you handle the Orioles infield surplus, short- and long-term? Westburg is having a helluva season in AAA, but it seems like he has to wait his turn while Gunnar gets his feet wet and Joey Ortiz is apprenticing in the bigs. Do you think the O’s flip-flop Henderson and Westburg to go with the hot hand? Is Ortiz being relegated to utility duty or will they sit Mateo more as he cools off? And long term, how would you align it? Ortiz at 2B, Holliday at SS, Henderson at 3B, Westburg and everyone else traded for pitching?

Kyle Glaser: Realistically their best alignment long-term is probably going to be Westburg at 2B, Holliday at SS, Henderson at 3B with Ortiz as a utilityman (Mateo is a short-term placeholder who shouldn’t be with the team by the time everyone else is ready). Westburg is a gifted enough defender you can put him anywhere and he’ll do well. That said, they need pitching, and if trading Westburg is the best route to get them the arms they need, you can move him and make Ortiz your everyday 2B.

Harry Caray (Wrigley):

 I’m flummoxed by the Quero duo. Edgar wasn’t supposed to be this advanced defensively, and Jeferson wasn’t supposed to be this good with the bat… Neither was expected to be in AA already, let alone thriving. Is this a mirage? Are they both looking like legit first division regular backstops?

Kyle Glaser: Players get better. No reason to be flummoxed by it. It’s good to see both of them growing and improving. Both have a chance to be first-division starting catchers, yes.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 Seems like Estevan Florial has been on the “radar” as a prospect forever. Up and down to big squad a few times. Where do you see him in the Yankee organization? Trade chip?

Kyle Glaser: I’ve never seen Florial have the pitch recognition to be an everyday player, at least not one who produces enough to start on a team with playoff hopes. There’s a reason he’s still in the Yankees organization after all these years – he really doesn’t have much trade value. He’s hitting well at Triple-A and there’s always a chance he figures things out late, but realistically it’s hard to see him being more than an up-down guy for the Yankees at this point.

Tatum (Clearwater):

 Jo Adell continues to be a mystery of why the talent just cannot surface at one time – rather pedestrian player in my opinion, with too many K’s. Have to believe he will get another shot, but not anytime soon – where do you see him? Contributing to Halos or traded?

Kyle Glaser: I think Adell is a good buy-low candidate for another team. It wouldn’t surprise me if a change of scenery serves him well. I still think in the right organization with the right coaching infrastructure, he can make changes and be a productive major leaguer.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 Hearing anything about Tiedemann in terms of longer term recovery from bicep inflammation? Reports state will begin throwing program soon, any cause for concern?

Kyle Glaser: Don’t have specifics at this juncture, but we’ll have a batch of injury updates in the coming weeks and should have it then. Keep an eye out.

Tatum (Clearwater):

 What is your take on Drew Gilbert? Dude can hit, but only a handful over AA games. If healthy, give me his AVG-HR-RBI-STL line for a full AA season. Then is he a late 2024 Astro? Thanks Kyle

Kyle Glaser: Gilbert is a good player. He was the best prospect on that talent-laden Tennessee team even though other guys got more pub. I think there is a very good chance we see him in the majors next year. He’s good.

Brad (NJ):

 I expected to see Amador on the hot sheet. Is a 4HR week not enough these days to make it? After a May 17 game, Amador was hitting .261/.331/.405. After Saturday’s game, Amador was hitting .281/.343/.521. Is that not the definition of a Hot Week?

Kyle Glaser: Amador hit .200 with a .200 OBP for the week. That’s not going to get you on the Hot Sheet, even with a 3 HR game and another HR the day before.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 Darell Hernaiz looks like a talent, speed and pop combo, decent plate discipline – is he the future at 2b for A’s? Thanks Kyle

Kyle Glaser: Hernaiz is a good athlete and he keeps getting better as a hitter. There’s a chance he’s their everyday 2B in the future, yes, with the way he keeps progressing.

DJ (LA):

 What is the deal with Diego Cartaya? Is his stock dropping? Time to be concerned?

Kyle Glaser: Cartaya’s swing just keeps getting longer and longer. It’s almost unrecognizable now from where he was two years ago. It keeps trending in the wrong direction. It’s not good.

TB RAYS (FL):

 Jonathan Aranda or Osleivis Basabe. Who is the better hitter? Who is more likely to be a major league starter? Either of them getting a shot soon?

Kyle Glaser: I personally like Aranda’s pure swing more, as well as his more patient approach. That said, you can’t ignore the fact Basabe is three years younger and outhitting Aranda. Basabe’s ability to play multiple positions gives him more avenues to regular playing time in the majors, so there’s an argument he’s the more likely ML starter. I personally would probably take the bat in Aranda, but I think there is a valid argument either way.

Alex (MD):

 Has BJ Murray pinged your radar? I can see upside here. He’s a young 23 for AA. bb% and fb% up every year, gb% down every year. He looks like he’s getting to more power. His babip looks semi-sustainable. Looks like a decent IF swiss army knife without plus defense. Any chatter behind the scenes in your world?

Kyle Glaser: Yes, Murray has. A switch-hitter who can get on base is always valuable. You’ll see him in our next Cubs Top 30 update.

Will (California):

 Who is a name out of the High School ranks that could sneak into the first round that wouldn’t shock you?

Kyle Glaser: There are like 6-10 prep shorstops who fit this bill. Roch Cholowsky, Walker Martin, Colt Emerson and George Lombard Jr. are all guys who generally fall outside of the first round on most draft rankings, but it wouldn’t shock me if any of them go in the first round. That’s just to name a few of the prep shortstops. There are a lot of them.

Joe (Los Angeles):

 If Royce Lewis continues to hit, when do you see him up and where do you see him fitting on the MLB roster?

Kyle Glaser: It’s been all of six games, so pump the brakes a little bit. That said, it’s great to see Lewis hit the ground running in his return and he should be in Minnesota sooner rather than later. Center field is where the Twins could use him most, but with his knee and the fact he’s been playing SS/3B exclusively since his return, third base looks like it might be the most likely spot for him.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week.