Hot Sheet Chat (5/16/23)

J.J. Cooper hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript below.

Zak (Japan):

 What’s more likely to happen; Jackson Holliday finishing the year as the #1 prospect or the Orioles finishing the year with 10+ prospects on the top 100 list?

J.J. Cooper: Much more likely that Holliday finishes No. 1. Graduations this year should somewhat thin the top end of the Orioles prospect list, as you could expect Rodriguez, Hall, Ortiz and maybe Cowser and one or two more could graduate by the end of the year. But it still will be an excellent system even with more graduations. Here’s a crazy point about the Orioles depth. If the Orioles needed to, they could replace each of their four infield spots with a viable AA/AAA replacement. Westburg could play 3B, Ortiz (yes, he’s been up and down already) could play SS, Norby could play 2B. And Kjerstad could play 1B, or Santander could move to 1B with Cowser going to the OF. That’s crazy depth.

Voya (NYC):

 Do you think Edouard Julian will be back up to the majors again this year with or without injuries?

J.J. Cooper: With injuries? Absolutely. He didn’t do anything to make the Twins feel like he was so overmatched as to not come back. Without injuries it would be much tougher, because the Twins have a ton of infielders, even with Miranda back in the minors. Julien’s glove still needs work, and the Twins don’t have a lot of room on the big league, but you have Julien, Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis as 2B/SS/3B options and a number of options at 1B as well.

Mike (Oconomowoc, WI):

 I know you get tired of hearing “I’m surprised Player A was not on your list”…Still no AJ Smith-Shawver at 20 years old throwing zeroes up in AA? Great fastball and slider, but do you think he can be a dominant major league starter with that changeup?

J.J. Cooper: It will make it tougher, but I’d be crazy to say that there’s no way that Smith-Shawver can make that work in the majors when Spencer Strider is dominating in the majors while throwing his fastball and slider 95% of the time. Now Strider’s stuff is even a tick beyond Smith-Shawver’s but that’s a perfect example of how a two-pitch pitcher can succeed. That’s something the Braves have done a great job with, helping pitchers dominate with their best stuff.

Roger (Washington DC):

 With McLain now up, how long until Elly gets the call?

J.J. Cooper: You all may hate this answer, but I actually think it makes sense to let De La Cruz get another month of two in the minors. His recent trends in improving his contact rate and becoming more selective are promising, but ideally you want to give him a little time to show it’s a skill that’s settling in. McLain coming up means there’s no need to rush De La Cruz.

jose (Santa Ana Ca):

 Is Andrew Abbott the son of Jim Abbott? As I read.

J.J. Cooper: No. He is not. I can state this with 100 percent confidence as I have met Andrew Abbott’s mother and father. He was a very nice man and an enjoyable conversation, but he was definitely not Jim Abbott.

The Nature Boy (Charlotte, NC):

 No love for Bryan Woo’s perfecto attempt this week? Tracking the box scores and watching highlights, I feel like he has to be edging into Top 100 consideration now.

J.J. Cooper: He is getting very close to the Top 100. Definitely a guy we are bearing down on for our next Top 100 update.

Roger (Washington DC):

 Are the Rockies legitimately building something? Seems like the Fresno and Spokane clubs have been stocked with excellent bats the last few years.

J.J. Cooper: The farm system is definitely getting better. Tough division to make it work, but they have an up arrow.

Brandon (Massachusetts):

 What’s going on with Orelvis Martinez’s babip??? It’s at an absurdly low level, even with his fly ball rates.

J.J. Cooper: It’s crazy. Obviously he is going to see that go up. No one ends the year with a .079 BABIP. But that said, he’s an incredibly fly ball heavy hitter and not all of that contact is hard contact.

Johnny (Winona):

 With Rafaela and Simpson you specifically noted speed/base stealing as a source of their hotness. Does that reflect a perception by you and/or MLB teams that this is going to be a more important skill going forward or more of a nod to the fact in the current MLB environment it is currently HOT (!)? If it is still at the moment more of a hotness thing, what would it take for it to stabilize as a skill that might be a serious priority in evaluation, rather than just being a nice bonus for a guy who already is an excellent prospect based on his hitting skills?

J.J. Cooper: The new rules are the new rules, and they likely aren’t going anywhere. These rules are designed to encourage basestealing. If teams start to do a better job of holding runners and selecting catchers who throw well, it will diminish the value of steals again. But for now, it is a useful additive skill. Steals alone won’t be enough to keep you in the majors, but it can be a valuable differentiator between players who can and those who cannot. And a player who has defensive value, contact hitting ability and steals is more useful now than he was 5 years ago.

Elliot (Youngstown OH):

 Is there any way someone like Nate Furman, an on base machine with no power, makes a Hot Sheet? For the week he was 9-18 with 8 walks 1 strikeout and 8 steals and not caught 500/654/500 and the uncalculated value of the steals. [Is there a stat that does add the value of the steals?]

J.J. Cooper: It’s possible. I like to use an advance form of runs created that does value steals as part of my formulas I use to line up the Hot Sheet on weeks I do it, but I do have concern when a player has no isolated power. Those types of players rarely succeed in the majors. The Cardinals’ Mike O’Neill is the player that always comes to mind. O’Neill hit .349/.458/.440 between HiA and AA in 2012. He posted a .314/.424/.369 line the next year. For his career, O’Neill was a .311/.412/.381 hitter. He never reached the majors. That’s a tough profile.

Jay (New York):

 What are the odds that Leiter has turned a corner with his recent performance? Does he still project as a top of the rotation arm, or is he now more of a middle-of-the-rotation type?

J.J. Cooper: It’s encouraging, but I think he profiles more likely as a middle of rotation arm or dominating reliever rather than top-of-the-rotation arm. His control and his command as well as the quality of his secondaries will need to improve and be more consistent to be a front-end of the rotation arm. In his last two starts he’s found the zone much more consistently without getting tagged for home runs. Hopefully that’s a sign he’s figured some things out.

John (Boston):

 How much has McLain’s stock improved this year? Based on his numbers, he looks like this year’s version of Gunnar Henderson (in terms of growth). Did he go against some easy competition or is his bat this good?

J.J. Cooper: I wouldn’t lump him into that category, as there’s a pretty dramatic age difference. It’s encouraging, but I do worry that, as we’ve noted before, McLain had a great start to the 2022 season and then wore down. His 2023 start has been even better, but it will be interesting to see if he can physically keep this up. This isn’t beating up on easy competition. The depth of arms is Triple-A is more impressive IMO than it was years ago. He’s simply been one of the hottest bats in the minors.

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Sorry I have to call this quits with some great questions still in the queue but thank you to everyone for coming out today.