Hot Sheet Chat (4/11/23)

Josh Norris hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript below.

Josh Norris: Hello, friends. Let’s chat.

Tatum (Clearwater):

 What is Cleveland’s thinking starting Bibee at AAA and Gavin Willams back at AA? Could it be the walk rate in 2022 by Williams? Does Bibee get called up this year?

Josh Norris: That was one assignment that jumped out to us too. Honestly, I’m not sure of the reason why Williams is back at Quakron and Bibee is up at Columbus. I do know two things, though: 1) A team will tell you what it thinks of prospects by the way it handles them 2) When it comes to pitching development, don’t ever doubt Cleveland.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 Josh, give me your thoughts on Wilmer Flores, for future of Detroit rotation. Can he be a 1 or 2 starter – he is a big seemingly durable thrower with solid Erie numbers in 2022. thanks!

Josh Norris: I don’t believe he can achieve that kind of ceiling. In the Handbook, we have him as a more of a No. 3 type if everything goes well, with the expectation that he realistically settles in closer to a No. 4.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 Thanks for the time Josh. Where do you see Miguel Bleis topping out this year, AA? He is young but seems as if he is the future in Boston, just a question if its 2024 or 2025.

Josh Norris: If he absolutely crushes this year, he could finish the year in Double-A. I think we’re going to start seeing that type of thing more often simply because of the way the new schedules work. Evan Carter, Jasson Dominguez and Jackson Chourio all made it to Double-A as players 20 and younger, and part of that reason was simply that there was more season remaining. In Dominguez and Carter’s cases, their teams were also in the playoffs. So if Bleis finds that level of success this year—and maybe if the Sea Dogs are in the EL playoffs—he could follow that path. He’s not without warts, though, and (like pretty much every prospect) will have to tighten his command of the strike zone.

Michael (Raleigh):

 I was surprised Seattle sent Gabriel Gonzalez to Low A again this year given his 2022 performance at that level as an 18 year old. Thought he would get a High A assignment. Given his hot start this year (obviously small sample), do you think Seattle should have challenged him with High A? Thanks.

Josh Norris: Teams are dealing with way more info about their own prospects and what kind of timeline works for them, so I’ll demur on that aspect of the question. That said, Gonzalez had just 32 games in the Cal League last season, so it’s not out of the ordinary that he’s back.

RJ (Lawrence):

 Any concern for Tiedemann? Any time I hear shoulder soreness it gives me pause. what is the timetable to return?

Josh Norris: I agree with you there. Shoulder injuries are always very scary for pitchers. Scott Mitchell of TSN in Canada reports that Tiedemann is expected to join the AA rotation at some point this month.

Mike Russell (Oconomowoc, WI):

 I know it’s early (Obligatory opening phrase), but how excited are you to see that Ronny Mauricio has the same number of extra base hits as he does strikeouts? Are we talking about a potential fast riser in the rankings here?

Josh Norris: You are correct, it is early, but you’ve done some successful judge shopping here by asking me this question. Players like Ronny Mauricio are right in my wheelhouse. Twitchy, athletic, tooled-up and oozing with upside. Are there big time concerns about the hittability? You bet. And here’s where I’ll go back to the advice of a great scout: It takes a lot more than tools to build a house. Mauricio’s got the tools. Now, can he draw up the blueprints, get the supplies and figure out how to make something with them? Time will tell, but the start is encouraging.

Nathan (AZ):

 No Jo Adell?

Josh Norris: Adell no longer counts as a prospect. Amazing week, but he graduated from prospect consideration some time ago.

theKraken (Pacific):

 This is more along the lines of the cold sheet but what is the story with Kyle Harrison’s debut? Any injury or anything to report.

Josh Norris: I don’t think it’s injury related, but that certainly is not the way one wants to start out. I’ve mentioned it a lot in regard to Harrison on podcasts and chats and such, but the watchword with Harrison was always related to his command. The stuff is undeniably filthy, but the way his delivery works helped him create a kind of deception that might have masked poor command (when I’ve seen him, he’s left a lot of balls up to his arm side). The question, then, was: If you try to smooth out the delivery, would you be doing so at the risk of deception, or could the pitching development department find a way to split the difference? It’s very early and Harrison is very young, so he’s got plenty of time to figure things out (though the PCL is not always the most forgiving of environments).

Cory (Florida):

 Hey Josh, thanks for doing this. I have a Norfolk Tides infield question. Jordan Westburg is showing his versatility and a solid bat, Ortiz has flashed some eye popping exit velocities with a plus glove, and Norby is consistently raking since his promotion to AAA…who has the inside track (in your opinion) to be the long term fixture in the Orioles infield?

Josh Norris: That’s a great question, and I don’t really have a strong opinion about it one way or the other. All three players have their positives and negatives. Ortiz might be the best bet to stick at one singular position given his defensive gifts, but Norby and Westburg might provide more offensive thump. If the Orioles are contenders this summer (assuming the Rays do not go 162-0), all three of those guys could be attractive trade chips to bring in some stretch run reinforcements.

Tim (Reno):

 Small sample, but that’s alot of strikeouts for Norby. Any concern?

Josh Norris: Yes and no. Yes in that it certainly raised my eyebrows a little bit when compiling hot sheet. No in that it’s extremely early and not really in line with his career numbers. Might be pressing a bit, might just be a blip that’ll smooth itself out as the season goes along.

Larry (Dayton):

 Hi, do you see Andrew Abbott as a starter or reliever, and what is his ETA?

Josh Norris: Given that he’s a lefty without a blow-away fastball or a truly knockout offspeed pitch, he likely fits in the back of the rotation. If all goes well, he could debut toward the end of the season or early next season.

Norm (Connecticut):

 No love for David Festa?

Josh Norris: Could have put him on there, sure. Every Hot Sheet has a lot more players who could have been on the list. Festa did get some love in this piece (shameless plug alert). https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/50-prospects-standing-out-to-scouts-in-2023-spring-training/

Miggy (Chicago):

 Hey Josh, Jud Fabian is an intriguing prospect for me…if he can continue the SSS of limiting his Ks like he did at the end of last season can he become someone to watch?

Josh Norris: He’s already someone to watch, but limiting his strikeouts will absolutely amplify his profile. Even if he doesn’t, three potential plusses on his card will make him an interesting player to follow in baseball’s best system.

Warren (New London):

 Mark Vientos has always reminded me of Nick Castellanos. Do you think he could eventually have that kind of impact?

Josh Norris: Probably not, but he could be a useful player against lefties. His early start certainly is encouraging, though.

Josh Norris: Thanks for all the questions. I’m off to get ready to drive to Winston-Salem for a fun SEC Throwback matchup of Blade Tidwell (Mets) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox). If you want more of me, here’s a podcast Geoff and I recorded this morning. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/hot-sheet-podcast-matthew-liberatore-impresses/