Hall of Famers Are Almost Always Top 100 Prospects

Image credit: Derek Jeter (Photo By Tom DiPace©)

We just rolled out our latest Top 100 Prospects list, and you may be wondering, just how useful are these rankings?

We believe they have stood the test of time. We’re not perfect, but baseball is a game that’s always impossible to fully predict. Just look at the top free agent signings in any class for examples of how even with the best information they can gather, teams will miss from time to time.

But if you want some evidence of the utility of the Top 100 Prospects lists, here’s some evidence of their utility: if you’re going to be a Hall of Famer, you almost assuredly need to make the Top 100 at some point during your minor league career.

Well, to be a little more accurate, if you’re going to be a Hall of Famer and you aren’t a reliever, you likely need to be a Top 100 Prospect.

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There have now been 19 players who were eligible for a Top 100 Prospects list who have been inducted into the Hall of Fame.

Of those, 17 made at least one Top 100 Prospects list. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman were both top 10 prospects for their teams, but not Top 100 prospects overall. Call that the closer corollary. It’s hard to rank who will end up as the best closers of a generation. It is worth noting, if Billy Wagner eventually makes it, he ranked 14th in 1996 and was a three-time Top 100 Prospect, so he would be the exception to that rule.

But other than that, it’s 17 for 17.

Two (Joe Mauer and Chipper Jones) were No. 1 prospects. Another three (Adrian Beltre, Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Derek Jeter) were top five prospects.

Two more (Ivan Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez) were top 10 prospects.

Todd Helton, Roy Halladay, Scott Rolen and Mike Mussina were top 20 prospects.

Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza were ranked in the top 40. Larry Walker (#42), Jim Thome (#51) and David Ortiz (#84) were the three who didn’t make a top 40.

The additions of Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia on next year’s ballot will keep the trend going if both of them get in. Suzuki ranked ninth and Sabathia ranked seventh.

Looking ahead even further, if Jay Jaffe’s predictions are correct, we could see Wagner, Andruw Jones, Buster Posey, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Miguel Cabrera and Chase Utley elected over the remainder of the decade.

Jones ranked No. 1 twice. Posey was a top 10 prospect. Wagner, Cabrera and Beltran were top 15 prospects. Pujols, a fast-mover, was a top 50 prospect. Utley ranked 81st. Molina never made a top 100, so that would be Baseball America’s first eligible miss for a position player if he gets the call.

So we can’t say that a non-Top 100 Prospect can’t make the Hall of Fame, but now that we’re in the Top 100 era, it’s safe to say that almost all future Hall of Famers will be former Top 100 Prospects.

Here’s a look at where the Hall of Famers who were Top 100 Prospect–eligible (we began the rankings in 1990) ranked in their best year.

Player	Top 100 Rank
Joe Mauer	1
Chipper Jones	1
Vladimir Guerrero Sr.	2
Adrian Beltre	3
Derek Jeter	4
Ivan Rodriguez	7
Pedro Martinez	10
Todd Helton	11
Roy Halladay	12
Scott Rolen	13
Mike Mussina	19
Frank Thomas	29
Jeff Bagwell	32
Mike Piazza	38
Larry Walker	42
Jim Thome	51
David Ortiz	84
Mariano Rivera	NR
Trevor Hoffman	NR