Future Projection Episode 86: Prospects Trending Up, Prospects Trending Down

Image credit: Noah Schultz (Tony Farlow/Four Seam Images)

Ben and Carlos talk about the new draft rankings at Baseball America and briefly touch on the state of the class and how the group is shaping up. Ben brings up the idea of pick trading once again and how that would impact Carlos’s ability to create mock drafts. Ben also talks about how it would be interesting to see teams able to trade domestic draft picks for international draft picks if that is ever implemented—the more freedom for teams to build rosters the better.

Then the two touch on a number of minor league prospects off to hot starts this season including: White Sox lefthander Noah Schultz, Rockies righthander Chase Dollander, Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, Royals catcher Blake Mitchell and Twins outfielder Emmanuel Rodriguez.

After that the two switch gears and talk about some prospects whose starts to the season could be more concerning. Those players include: Yankees shortstop Roderick Arias, Rangers shortstop Sebastian Walcott, Mariners catcher Harry Ford, Blue Jays lefthander Ricky Tiedemann, Padres righthander Dylan Lesko and Braves righthander Hurston Waldrep. In that conversation the two also wonder about the merits of prospect demotions and whether or not they could be beneficial for player development.

Ben has a sleeper righthander to know in the Brewers system, righthander Bishop Letson, and the two talk about his remarkable jump in stuff within just a year of being drafted in the 11th round. That leads to a conversation about teams investing in raw, projectable prospects who take more time to develop and whether or not that sort of player is less common with a 20-round draft and smaller minor league system.

Ben picks Carlos’s brain on the players who could be available for the teams picking outside the top eight range, and how likely or unlikely it is for one of the “big 8” to slip further down the board. What are potential draft scenarios for the Pirates, Nationals, Tigers and Red Sox? The two talk about pitcher attrition and whether or not that makes teams more or less likely to draft pitching prospects in the first place and then get into a listener question about academies in Latin America lying about prospect ages.

Time Stamps

(0:00) New draft rankings
(13:00) Pick trading
(18:00) International draft trading
(21:00) Noah Schultz
(23:00) Chase Dollander
(27:00) Matt Shaw
(29:30) Blake Mitchell
(34:00) Emmanuel Rodriguez
(40:00) Roderick Arias
(45:30) Sebastian Walcott
(49:00) Thoughts on promotions and demotions
(52:00) Harry Ford
(57:00) Ricky Tiedemann
(1:03:00) Dylan Lesko
(1:08:00) Hurston Waldrep
(1:13:40) Bishop Letson
(1:19:00) Teams investing in “raw” players
(1:23:00) Pirates options at No. 9
(1:33:00) Can anyone slide out of the top eight?
(1:37:00) FSU outfielder James Tibbs
(1:39:00) Are the Red Sox in no man’s land at 12?
(1:46:00) Pitcher attrition and how that impacts decisions to draft arms
(1:52:00) What happens when academies lie about player ages?