FSL Top 20 Prospects Chat

Sean (Centreville, VA): Any chance Taylor Widener is the next Chance Adams? Pretty solid numbers for a converted reliever.

John Manuel: Widener does appear to be another nice success story for the Yankees’ system, but I don’t think of him as terribly similar to Adams as a kind of “come out of nowhere” Top 100 starter. Widener was more of A Dude in high school & college than Adams, but he had such success in a relief role at South Carolina that it was hard for him to break out of that role in three years there. Still, he did make 14 starts over 3 years there, and we ran him up a Coastal Plain League top 10 in 2015 when he started, owing to the life on his fastball. His changeup came along nicely this year, so he’s got the 3 requisite pitches now, but the fastball command is still shy of Adams’ or to be an impact starting pitcher like we think Adams can become. Widener could be in the Adam Warren family of swing man, though; maybe I’m selling him short as a starter.

Roger (Greenville, SC): What did scouts have to say about improvements in Touki's control? Was he close to the list?

John Manuel: Touki is vexing for me, and really has been since high school. He has a pretty high level of athleticism, which one would expect to translate to future control. It just hasn’t happened; he got hammered a lot in the FSL but the scouts that I talked to saw him flash fastball command for several innings, then he’d get out of synch with his lower half and his long arms, and suddenly he couldn’t find the strike zone. He wasn’t really someone I strongly considered for the back of the list. JJ Cooper and I were just debating overall prospect status versus league context this morning, and that’s a hard one. His ERA was over 5 in a league with a 3.50 ERA. His walk rate spiking after he went up to Double-A certainly didn’t help his cause, either. I just think Braves fans are going to have to be patient with him.

Roger (Greenville, SC): Of course Jackson is raw behind the plate. How much progress did he make? Does he have the aptitude? I saw one game report from AA that suggested some laziness back there.

John Manuel: It’s all about context. He had not caught as a pro before this year. This year, he caught 33 games. I think he had to make a ton of progress to even do that; it’s not like he was catching a bunch of nobodies. He caught Touki; he caught Luis Gohara. He had to get to a certain point to catch those guys. But he needs a lot more reps to be an average receiver, a lot more reps to not be seen by opposing baserunners and first-base coaches as a virtual green light to run on. Laziness … that’s a harsh word that I would not use with players who actually are out there doing it, especially in the FSL heat. I just don’t think he realized how hard it was to catch as a pro because he never did it. Does he want to do it? Scouts repeatedly have told me that’s the biggest key for a catcher; he has to embrace that workload. I didn’t hear anyone say he doesn’t want to do it. But he caught about a quarter of their games; that’s less than maybe I would have expected.

Gerry (Toronto): The Jays had some good pitching this year. Did Ryan Borucki, TJ Zeuch or Josh DeGraaf qualify? DeGraaf is a reliever conversion project, did you hear any good reports on him? Thank you.

John Manuel: All three qualified, and I like Borucki; I am interested in all 3 who will likely all make the Jays’ top 30. Borucki v. Zeuch is an interesting one. I ran into one scout who liked my Borucki-JA Happ comparison, and he threw well after leaving the FSL, even finishing in Triple-A, so he was the closest to the top 20 in the FSL for me. Zeuch was tougher because he pitched twice after May what with the lower back strain and then hamstring setback he had during rehab. It’s surprising to me that Zeuch isn’t on the Jays’ instructional league roster. DeGraaf didn’t stand out to the folks I talked to but he’s on my “dig more” list for the Jays top 30.

Roger (Greenville, SC): How much separates Brett Cumberland from Alex Jackson?

John Manuel: Jackson has more physical ability defensively than Cumberland, he’s more athletic, and he has more power. I like Brett Cumberland fine but didn’t really pick up much buzz on him in the FSL, understandable due to the sole home run. Jackson was top 10 in the league in homers; that wasn’t lost on the managers or scouts that I talked to.

Jose ((Kansas)): Noticed you guys had Senzel over Kopech on the Southern League list, but now have Keller over Senzel on the FSL list. Does this mean BA sees Keller as a better pitching prospect than Kopech, or are the lists not constructed that way?

John Manuel: Jose, I’m impressed that you read closely enough to pick up on that. BA isn’t a monolith; Matt Eddy ranked the Southern League and I ranked this FSL list. It may be that simple. I think we both value Senzel significantly, but the scouts who saw Senzel in the SL may have been more sanguine on his home run production than those who saw him in the FSL were. So some of that is league context and how much a player changes or performs in those different league contexts. The other part may just be that this isn’t black & white. I personally may prefer Keller to Kopech and Matt may not. I haven’t asked him. I will after the chat! But for me, I’ve always loved pitchers with plus velocity, command and life on the fastball, and Keller checks all three boxes. Kopech throws harder, but Keller throws plenty hard, great life, true command. I think Kopech may have a higher ceiling but Keller’s isn’t far off, and for me he’s the safer bet.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, John. I'm curious where Ronald Acuna and Sixto Sanchez would have ranked, had they been eligible?

John Manuel: Acuna would have been a tough decision; I’ve asked 3-4 scouts about Acuna vs. Vladimir Guerrero, and they’re all pretty split. I got a lot of 1a and 1b responses from scouts. I’m on Team Vladimir Jr., so I guess I would have had Acuna No. 2. Sixto would rank ahead of Ke’Bryan Hayes, but behind Nick Senzel, so that would have been nice to have broken up my Wall of Third Basemen there from 4-6.

Sixto Sanchez ((Philly)): Not to knock Dominguez or Romero, but I was surprised to see Kilome the lowest of the 3. How close was that trio to one another?

John Manuel: FWIW, the trope of “I’ll ask a chat question with a name of a prospect” is almost as old as the BA site itself. I guess we’re on to a second generation of folks using the joke . . . whatever. This was a very tough call among those three, but I had one scout who preferred Dominguez to even Sixto Sanchez. In terms of stuff, Dominguez is the strongest of this group. They don’t check IDs on the pitcher’s mound as the old saying goes … the issue with Serantony isn’t stuff, it’s durability, and that’s a significant question. I may be the low man on Kilome but his fastball command grades third of the three pretty clearly, and that’s why he ranked third. Romero’s ceiling isn’t as high per se but he has a better chance to start — athletic, multiple pitches, stuff is firm enough … I am satisfied with how I lined it up.

Connor (New England): I know a changeup is part of Mitch Keller's arsenal, but from what I understand, he doesn't throw it much and when he does, it isnt really effective. Is labeling him a 2-pitch pitcher fair? Can he truly be a frontline starter with only 2 pitches?

John Manuel: He can be because of his fastball command, which is elite. But it would behoove him to throw his changeup more at higher levels, because it’s a feel pitch, and it can’t hurt to have another weapon. He’s the kind of guy that one scout was talking about when he said some guys’ changeups are a 50 grade the second they throw it, because hitters are so geared up for the fastball. Keller just sounds like he has the elite FB command of other 2-pitch guys such as Clemens or Schilling or even Mark Prior at his peak, guys who threw premium velocity fastballs with premium FB command and good FB life. If you can’t tell, I really like Mitch Keller.

Danny V (Hartford, CT): Justin Dunn really struggled late in the season. Was he a candidate for the list, or is his future more likely in relief? Thanks.

John Manuel: He struggled as a starter, stuff just wasn’t there in a 5-day rotation, the reports I got were a lot of 88-92 mph fastballs, which just isn’t a separator right now. But let’s not bail on an athletic guy with a quick arm who was really in his first full year as a starting pitcher. Dillon Tate on this very list is a good example of why we shouldn’t give up so quickly on relievers-turned-starters.

Matt (Jacksonville): Hi John, was Estevan Florial's postseason promotion to Trenton just that or does he possibly start 2018 there? What about Vladimir Jr.? Could he begin next year in Double-A?

John Manuel: I don’t see Florial starting 2018 in Double-A; it was extra at-bats, and he just played 19 games in high Class A. Someone else asked earlier and Florial likely would have ranked ahead of Tate on the list. He’s pretty exciting and had quite the development year. Vlad Jr., on the other hand, appears ready for Double-A. I’m not sure if he’ll start in New Hampshire or start in Dunedin and wait until things warm up. His bat appears ready for Double-A, but there’s obviously more to it than that.

mikeleelop (ontario, canada): Can Vlad Jr. follow a path similar to what Devers did with Boston and get to the majors in 2018?

John Manuel: Love Rafael Devers, but Vlad Jr. is better and already moving faster than Devers did. Devers spent a full year at low Class A and a full year at high A before going Double-A to majors this year. Vlad Jr. also has Josh Donaldson blocking him, assuming he’s still there in 2018, before Donaldson is a free agent in ’19. I would expect that’s the Jays’ timetable.

mike (St Catharines ON): Is Connor Panas just a body or does he have any MLB potential?

John Manuel: It’s possible that he’s a big leaguer, while it’s very unlikely that he’s an impact player. He can hit; he hit at Canisius, and he has hit in pro ball so far. His other tools are fringy to below-average, but he can hit. That gives him a chance.

Dave (Grayson, ga): Any hope for Braxton Davidson??

John Manuel: He’s been a disappointment, no question. His name didn’t come up much at all.

Deywane (Memphis): Was Shed Long close to making the list? He was outstanding this year in the FSL.

John Manuel: In the first iteration, he was on the list, but a couple of the scouts that I talked to also saw him in Double-A and had backed off him, as he struggled with spin and soft stuff early in counts. He’s a decent enough defender and has a chance to be an offense-first second baseman, and he passes an important test, hitting velocity. He’s shown he can hit the fastball. The lack of second-half adjustments kept him off the list.

Mick (Chicago): Statistically Lewis Thorpe had a good abbreviated season after missing the last two years. Are scouts as high on him as they were before his injuries?

John Manuel: Most of the guys that I talked about about Thorpe had not seen him previously or hadn’t seen him extensively early, but reports are pretty solid of 92-94 fastball velocity and some ability to manipulate the baseball. He was in the 20s mix as well.

Dave (Grayson, ga): Any of the lesser Braves starters-Drew Harrington, Tyler Pike, Oriel Caicedo, Ricardo Sanchez-impress??

John Manuel: Caicedo’s name is the one that didn’t come up, perhaps because of his age. The other three were guys that either managers or scouts brought up, all because they were just OK. Harrington, I loved the guy in college but was surprised he was seen as a draft guy, it was underwhelming stuff in college and it played that way. Sanchez has backed up, Pike just doesn’t throw a ton of strikes, doesn’t command the fastball particularly well.

Eric (Internet): Is there a case to be made for Bichette being a better prospect than Vlad?

John Manuel: Some managers make that argument because they really like his defense. It’s not open and shut that Bo takes a back seat to Vlad Jr., but for me, that’s not an insult. I don’t see him being as good of an offensive player, but if Bo can stay at SS, he could have more total value as a player.

Bob (St. Louis, Mo): The Palm Beach Cardinals wer co-Champions of the FSL. Besides Helsley, who else received conideration for the Top 20 and what kept them from the rankings?

John Manuel: Arozarena, who I honestly didn’t get as much feedback on as I thought I would get; I didn’t get a scout who was wowed by him. Maybe I didn’t dig hard enough . . . Zac Gallen got some support as a potential back-end starter and a guy with the fastball command to start, and Junior Fernandez as a young guy with big arm strength, but I thought it was a deep league and none of those guys wowed the folks that I talked to.

John Manuel: Sorry folks, that’s going to have to be it, I need to get going. Baseball America is going to give you a double-shot of JJ Cooper the next couple of leagues with the South Atlantic League tomorrow and then the Midwest League on Monday. Thanks for coming out.