Friday MLB Notes: D-backs 2019 Draft Bonanza Paying Big Dividends

Image credit: Corbin Carroll (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

The 2019 draft represented an inflection point for the D-backs organization.

The team had seven of the top 75 picks in the draft that year, a bounty at the top of the draft known as a “bonanza.” After trading Paul Goldschmidt and letting Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock leave in free agency the previous offseason, how well the D-backs did in the draft would have a direct effect on how quickly they returned to contention.

By all appearances, the D-backs nailed it.

The D-backs drafted outfielder Corbin Carroll (No. 16), lefthander Blake Walston (No. 26), righthanders Brennan Malone (No. 33), Drew Jameson (No. 34) and Ryne Nelson (No. 56), lefthander Tommy Henry (No. 74) and outfielder Dominic Fletcher (No. 75) with their picks.

Carroll, Jameson, Nelson, Henry and Fletcher have all reached the majors and look to be long-term pieces for the club. Walston has a 2.70 ERA as a 21-year-old at Triple-A Reno. Malone was traded to the Pirates in the deal for all-star outfielder Starling Marte.  

Teams with previous bonanzas rarely hit on more than 2-3 of their picks. The D-backs, at this early stage, appear to have hit on nearly all of theirs.

“I’ve been doing it for a long time and I know that’s very hard to do,” said Deric Ladnier, who was the D-backs scouting director in 2019 and is now a special assistant to the general manager. “To basically go seven out of eight or eight out of nine, it just doesn’t happen.”

In addition to the picks themselves, the bonanza also meant the D-backs had the largest bonus pool in the draft, allowing them to pursue players who they otherwise may not have had enough money to sign.

To that end, the D-backs amplified their scouting efforts across the country. Instead of seeing only select games of certain players, they boosted their personnel and reallocated their resources to ensure they had at least one evaluator at nearly every game for every top player in the class.

“The way we operated as a team, everybody was on point,” Ladnier said. “We started the year and every player was in play. That was the reality of it. When you pick 10 and then you don’t pick again until 40 … it’s different because not everybody is in play. We scouted every player like we were going to take them. Literally, like, every player. It was the greatest team effort I’ve ever been involved in my entire life.”

Thorough, accurate evaluations were the bedrock of the D-backs draft strategy, but they were also conscious of history. The team thoroughly examined past draft bonanzas, many of which did not pan out.

What they found informed their strategy.

“We looked at a lot of different drafts that had multiple picks, the ones that had success, the ones that didn’t have success,” Ladnier said. “I can’t say we molded it through that, but I will say it gave us kind of a template for success and then we had to execute it. We spent endless hours doing research on who they took, why they didn’t work out, did it work out, things like that.

“It was a really, really good blend of high school and college players is what it was. We took some now guys with upside guys. Obviously Corbin has gone on to do great things and I think Walston will do the same thing, and then we filtered in those college draftees with stuff, real stuff. They all had good data and really good scouting reports. We were able to blend different perspectives and then we were all consensus yes, this one works.”

Carroll was the centerpiece of it all. A star on USA Baseball’s 18-and-under national team and one of the most athletic players in the class, Carroll was widely expected to go in the top 10 picks. Instead, he surprisingly slid to the D-backs at No. 16, setting the tone for their entire draft.

“I told (assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye) that winter before the draft there is no chance this kid gets to us,” Ladnier said. “There is no chance. He just kind of chuckled at me. I truly believed there was no chance. Then when he got to us I was like ‘Oh my God, this is the guy we wanted and we got him.’ That set the pace for our whole draft.”

To be clear, the players the D-backs selected in 2019 are still in the early stages of their careers and have a long way to go.

Carroll, 22, has emerged as a potential star and is one of the favorites for National League Rookie of the Year. Fletcher debuted on April 30 and has hit .375/.407/.607 through his first 21 games while solidifying a starting spot in the D-backs outfield. Nelson and Henry are in the D-backs rotation as rookies, albeit with ERAs of 5.48 and 5.00, respectively, and Jameson was demoted to Triple-A after struggling to throw strikes.

But to get five major leaguers and another likely on on the way (Walston) is an exceptional result in any draft. For the D-backs, their success already far exceeds the previous draft bonanzas that came before it.

“Credit goes honestly to the entire organization,” Ladnier said. “There is not one individual that you can single out. Everybody was just on point. Really, really on point. Everybody the entire time was completely locked in. That was what made it so magical.”

JUAN SOTO FINDS HIS SWING

Amidst the Padres’ spiral, one encouraging development has been Juan Soto’s return to form.

Soto, 24, has hit .354/.488/.646 with 10 doubles, three homers and 11 RBIs in his last 18 games. While it’s a small sample, it has been a welcome turnaround after Soto hit .217/.372/.375 in his first 76 games with the Padres after being acquired in last year’s blockbuster deadline deal.

“I’ve just been finding myself,” Soto said during the Padres’ series against the Royals this week. “I’m trying to control my body better. Every swing, I just try to control it as much as I can and try to get the barrel directly to the ball. Don’t go too long. Short, quick, make good decisions. That’s all been I’ve been working on.”

Soto maintained his signature plate discipline and still had more walks (66) than strikeouts (63) during his slump, but the problem was when he swung. Soto frequently pounded the ball into the ground to the right side during his struggles, resulting in weak choppers and steep declines in both his average exit velocities and hard-hit rate.

His return to form has coincided with his return to using the entire field. Nine of his last 12 hits have been between the right and left-center gaps, including all five of his doubles in that stretch.

“I think he’s using a little bit more of the field,” Padres manager Bob Melvin said. “He’s driving the ball … I think his at-bats have been consistent for a period of time here where you’re starting to see the guy that he’s been for the most part of his career.”

Soto’s average exit velocity, after dropping to a career-low 91 mph last season and staying near there at the start of this season, has shot up to 92.9 mph with his hot stretch, second-highest of his career. While it hasn’t been enough to kickstart the Padres offense—their .226 batting average is the lowest in MLB and they rank 27th in scoring—Soto is at least doing his part.

“Everything’s been working well,” Soto said. “I think we’ve found confidence in my mechanics. We fixed it and now we’re going in the right spot.”

CONTRERAS MOVE PAYS OFF

The Cardinals took plenty of heat for removing catcher Willson Contreras as their everyday catcher, but the move has coincided with the team’s turnaround.

The Cardinals are 9-3 since they announced on May 6 they were temporarily moving Contreras out from behind the plate. Andrew Knizner caught nine straight games (including one the night before the announcement) before Contreras returned to catching May 15. Contreras has caught three of the last four games.

The reset appears to have worked for Cardinals pitchers, especially. The Cardinals had a 4.71 ERA before the announcement was made. They have a 3.58 ERA since, highlighted by Jack Flaherty pitching seven scoreless innings with Contreras catching in his first game back behind the plate. Contreras was also behind the plate when rookie Matthew Liberatore and three relievers combined to shut out the Brewers on Wednesday.

CRACKS SHOWING IN RAYS BULLPEN

The Rays have the best record in baseball on the strength of their historic start, but cracks are beginning to show.

Rays starters have thrown 205 innings, second-fewest in the majors, and the strain on the bullpen is becoming apparent. Rays relievers have allowed 30 earned runs in their last 37.1 innings, a significant reason the Rays are 3-6 in their last nine games.

The bullpen issues came to the forefront in Wednesday’s backbreaking 8-7 loss to the Mets in 10 innings. Rays relievers allowed eight runs (seven earned) in the final 3.1 innings and three different pitchers allowed homers that blew a lead.  

The Rays, with their use of openers and famously short leashes for starters, have long ranked near the bottom of MLB in terms of innings pitched by starters. Still, their current pace compared to recent years is low even for them.

Rays starters threw 753 innings in 2022, fewest in MLB, and 752.2 innings in 2021. This year, they are on pace to throw 738 innings.

BO BICHETTE’S CHANCE AT HISTORY

Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette somehow doesn’t get enough credit for how good of a hitter he is, but that should change. Bichette led the American League in hits in 2021 (191) and 2022 (189) and again leads the AL in hits this season with 61. 

If Bichette can maintain his lead, he will become only the fourth player since integration to lead his league in hits three seasons in a row, joining Jose Altuve (2014-17), Kirby Puckett (1987-1989) and Tony Oliva (1964-66).

Bichette, notably, would accomplish the feat younger than all of them. He is on pace to lead the league in hits three years in a row from his age 22-24 seasons. Oliva did it in his age 25-27 seasons, Puckett did it in his age 27-29 seasons and Altuve, who did it four seasons in a row, did it from his age 24-27 seasons.

Amazingly, Ichiro Suzuki, Tony Gwynn, George Brett, Rod Carew, Wade Boggs, Roberto Clemente and Pete Rose never led their league in hits three seasons in a row. The last National League player to do it was Rogers Hornsby, who did it from 1920-22.

Stan Musial, it should be noted, led the NL in hits in three consecutive seasons in which he played, but he missed a year due to military service. He led the NL in hits in 1943-44, missed the 1945 season while serving in the Navy, and led the league in hits again when he returned in 1946.